Thursday 25th September 2014 :- Market Preview -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- On the daily chart we are sitting at the midpoint of our ascending channel. Ideally the best trades are at the extremes, but we may still get some movement here. On the hourly we can see how much we moved up yesterday, approx 60 points rise in one day. It looked like we were heading to the top of the range, but in the early morning we have moved downwards strongly. I will keep an eye out for trades at the usual levels. As recommended in other journals, I will review the 5 min before the open to see what info it can give a level above the 1 min charts.
Thursday 25th September 2014 :- 1 Min Chart Review -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mistakes today. I missed my first and best entry, and couldn't get back on track. These are the days that provide the fuel to the engine, and I only missed out because of mistakes. No bad luck involved, in fact the price movement was very helpful today. The endless learning never stops, but thankfully the market never goes away, there's always the next day. 1. Big mistake, I was looking for ways into trends when I have no obvious retracement on the 1 min chart. Here we have a pause and a move up during one bar, so I shorted below it. We were near to the midpoint of our move up from yesterday and also a daily high from Tuesday at 61. So when the trade was rejected at that point I exited for a point. I should have then entered on the following retracement, but was too busy typing this. This affected the rest of the day, but I will try to learn from it. 2. After missing that retracement, I got in on the next one. We had already moved down a long way, so I wasn't too hopeful, and exited when we broke above the previous bar. I can see that missing the good entry through my own error has affected my thinking. 3. I put this one on, and didn't move my target out quick enough, and it was triggered. One of those days. 4. I missed an entry here also. The price had paused and moved upwards. The short upward line had broken at the downward supply line and we then retraced to hit the line, but could not get past that level. The entry would be on the bar marked, and I guess an initial target would be at the previous day's low, or with any luck another 30 points beyond that. Ultimately it made another 30 points. 5. This one was a couldn't lose scalp trade. I would normally stay away from these, but at the speed we were falling I knew it would either keep going or I'd get a point. Took the point so that I would make $100 for today. This is nothing for such a good day, but okay for trading badly. I'm taking a day off tomorrow, because they are bringing the Oktober Fest from Germany to Dublin. While you are all trading and cursing at the screen, I will be drinking wonderful German beer, and eating pigs heads with sauerkraut.
Just a quick review of what I saw on the 5 min at the open. Before the open we had a hinge/triangle which eventually exited from below. There was then a slight sideways movement (bear flag?) which again exited from below. Finally on the open we tested this exit point and turned down. I know Nodoji probably entered her short for the day here, but for today I was happy to watch it and try to learn from it.
The PA surrounding the open was a bit confusing to me. I didn't get short until 9:47 eastern time, with-trend continuation setup on the 1-min chart.
That was a great trade to take today, I'm glad you got on it. I'm still swinging for the wrong balls, but at least I'm on the park
So it looks like we took the same trade, but I waited for the pullback setup. If you're nervous about retraces, you'll find trading to be more relaxing when you enter this way via stop orders. In a well-defined trend, these entries usually run right out of the gate.
HI ND, I assume 4 is another short entry. With airspace in mind are you thinking about that swing (3 matching lows) just to the left and that that area was a weak break of the prior swing or is the trend strong enough to take it. (I waited for a break of the 3 lows then shorted) Thanks. jas
The #4 that Bon marked is troublesome in that price is consolidating in a range and the airspace to the range low is negligible, so I like to either sell near the range high (it didn't get back up that far) or watch for the range low to break and then get in on a pullback. I didn't take a measured move target on the initial short because there was no bounce there and Tuesday's low was then in play. After that low broke I tightened a stop on part of the position for an exit on the turn and left some on until a 5-min bar finally broke upside. There was still plenty of downside after that!
My plan tells me to enter on retracements, but my head didn't tell me to follow my plan. I do like relaxing trades, and its a pity to miss it today, but like repeatidly hitting the snooze button on my alarm clock, I wlil eventually wake up and make the right trades. I actually measured out the target at the time and I laughed as it reached it and took a breather.
I see. I'll have to go through some more charts and look at some examples of this. Shorting off the range high or a pullback makes more sense.