I have read a whole peace in the economist about it last week and I can't remember one single point. I am getting old...
There is a seasonal window for a long crush soon so I am getting interested as well. But according to my datas, it is not really low. It's much lower than last spring for sure but still in the upper 1/2 of the last 20 years' value.
Pretty low compared to the last 5 year Average on last 10 years I think its pretty low because I think crushing costs are increasing ? I dont know how much crushing costs are related to energy.
Just came back from SE Asia (Malaysia, Indonesia) where I was present for nearly 2 months. The normal "wet season" was anything but that - quite dry with only a few scattered days of heavy rain. Normally around Dec/Jan/Feb one is seeing semi-daily afternoon rain, but there were literally multiple continuous days without rain and a lot of time when it looked like typical rain symptoms (grey clouds, wind), nothing materialized.
I think trees are much more resilient to a lack of rain than annual crops... At least, palm production is much more stable than wheat, corn, soybean production. Dryness in SE Asia might have less impacts on markets than dryness in US/South Amercias ?
Maybe so but just reporting what I saw, and what I saw was unseasonable dryness. Think of things like the softs and also how the weather patterns might be mirrored/disrupted in central/South Americas as well. Not really US specific.