Ag trade ideas

Nice seasonality & return to a more classic spread

 

@On Coffee
It took me years to understant that its:
90% markets generate news
10% news moves the market

Journalists have to explain whats happening

 

Sure, agreed - but we have a case here where USDA FAS comes out with their own findings and the market moves 10%. Not really the same as seeing a "wow look at coffee!" pump piece from the WSJ or similar.

 

I think it doesn't metter "why" weekly trend down and last movement is correlation so we will se when it's power will down and we will hit him trend side or maybe it is new trend then we will wait untill it's prove strong trend we will take it's side. Why you should be worry about reason let cnbc, Bloomberg will be worry about it...

 

This year I recall only 2-3 news in the ags that really moved the markets:
- The biodiesel mandate increase on soyoil.
- USDA estimates on Orange Juice.
- Brazil biofuel law on sugar.

 

Anyone using Demark analysis for spreads ? Seems to work well on grains

 

@Its a legit question because you can win money/traders can win money on fundamentals.

 

Short Apr/ Long Aug Feeders @ -1.850. Not sure but there might be an other leg down in cattle...

 

Lots of Soy coming our way. You guys are probably on top of this, but I will post it anyway.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-poised-to-unleash-8-billion-of-stored-crops