Yeah but just short or go long the stock outright at that volume, most brokers will give you stock leverage, you get more movement for your risk...
LL, you are just spouting hypotheticals....yeah we know ANYTHING is possible. But in trading it is IMPOSSIBLE to make 3-6% a day for 250 trading days a year. You will have drawdowns and losing days and your actual average minus commissions and short-term capital gains taxes will come no where near 3-6% a day. You are not in the business of trading if you believe you can make 3-6% a day for 252 trading days and never have a losing trading day ever. Or are you making such a claim because 3-6% a day is possible is what you said....
i've said what i needed to say. i'll leave this just as an open-ended thought now. kind of like a painting.
Yeah that is what I thought... Good luck to the OP but forget about daily target goals and just make money.
Daily target goals are more of a structured way of saying im getting out. I am aware that you should let profits run etc but that to me is alot of guess work. If i let this call option run I would have seen an estimated 5 point move in my favor. or roughly 20-25% ROI give or take obviously. now if I look at yesterdays charts the same setup appears at 10:15 and 10:20 and if entering at that time and not setting my sights at 3-6% I would have lost money as TSLA continued to go down to about 221 and of course back up again but later in the day. so this kind of goes back to my OP of how can I improve upon knowing when its a change of direction like today vs a chop in the downtrend of yesterday. and the only thing I came up with is set a profit target that occurs most 1-2 point spike and if you meet it great, take your money and move on. and if its a reversal going the other way like today then great. I still made my money and that's all that matters I think. I will keep posting my trades good and bad
OP, I think with what you're doing you're going to find is that your winning pct CAN be like 80% long-term but your risk will be upside-down (e.g., losses are 2x-3x what the wins are). You won't get your 3-6% per day long-term ROI but you can certainly have a positive expectation formula and that's what everyone here wants to even play this game. The above is also a warning. Don't let your high winning pct allow you to make any assumptions about your long-term ROI. There's no direct relationship.
How do you know his % of winning is 80% and his loss is ONLY 2x and 3x? I am thinking the percentage of liss should be higher?
Your 3%-6% daily won't come from the trading in options. It will come from your system to trade the underlying. Cut the complexity in execution and get leverage via favorably margined products.
Experience gives you a rough guide as there exists an inverse relationship (long-term) between the win/loss ratio and the winning pct of a winning system (aka one that yields a LT positive expectancy). The same relative numbers in this relationship keep popping up over and over again in a sort of sliding scale.
LOL, i know what is the risk/reward ratio vs probability to win/loss in trading system (I been in this business for more than 10 years and still profitable and survive), the sad thing is I know this much better than 99% of ET here and I can spot the flaw in OP system almost instantly. If you read the OP thread carefully, you will know he long a call at $5.65 and try to make something like $0.25 (before commission), and he doesn't have any solid exit plan when the price go against him. I took this as he will pray when the price go against him, and there is a chance (may be 5% to 10%?) that his option may go to zero if the price never recover. This means his loss will be at least 20X than his profit (at least in this example) OP is new and he though he has a novel idea with edge, the only things he never know is someone already tried this before (scalping the noise using options in high volatile stocks such as AAPL, TSLA, GOOG), and the result is not good due to the occasion big drawdown. This "someone" end up as a "mentor" that selling books and signals in internet as he can't make real money in trading