Eventually you must come to the realization that there is no "system" that guarantees a certain amount of gains. When people say there is a system, they are referring to the success they've had with a small sample size of trades. An objective way of trading profitably would have been discovered before Leibn itz's and Newton's calculus or the profiling of the human genome. Most people here are spinning their wheels trying to make money off of ransom happenstance. jeff Augen's "The Volitility Edge" is the best summary that serves as a testament for how random the markets are. They are impervious to your "technical analysis". They are impervious to your "system". All profits are coincidental. Keep rationalizing an objective interpretation of the markets in pursuant to the perfect system. It's all random.
LOL Do you need help in trading? I am able to make bet with you that I am able to overperform SPY longterm, that there is no random walk...
I agree with a lot of the original post, especially those in search of secret systems for short timescales. However not everything is random, human emotions and crowd behaviour are certainly not.
True, just like there is no company with a guaranteed future. A trading system in many ways is like most products ... created to respond to a business opportunity, milked as long as the business opportunity exists, and retired when that opportunity no longer exists.
Riiiiiiight. Profits are coincidental yet there are traders who have been profiting consistently for not only years but decades in many cases.
Nice answer, short and to the point To the original poster : Yes you are right, in trading there is no guarantee of anything, you trade you risk, period. However, in the long run, you can beat the system, just like a Black Jack card counter can beat the casino, for example. Why? For the simple reason that freely traded markets (like the stock, Futures or Forex markets - or the Black Jack game) are NOT random, you can use the past to predict the future.
Listen up and listen carefully.. I'm here to tell you that the market is very complicated and it's very hard to understand. And if someone tells you different then they are full of it.. It's funny because I can explain the whole market to you in one sentence, but I'll bet you that you still wouldn't understand it.. Think about it for a second.. Do you really think you can be a good surfer by reading one sentence? The whole market is a system.. A very complicated one too.. To understand it you will have to break it down into categories.. And those categories will have sub categories.. Trend, ranges, consolidation etc.. Every trend isn't the same, every range isn't the same and so on.. This is where the sub categories will come in.. 80% of people that's reading this right now don't have a clue of what I'm talking about.. I will tell you this... Market behavior is key.. Study it! Forget about trying to build a system (for now).. ALL OF YOUR SYSTEMS WILL FAIL if you don't understand market behavior (re-read this sentence 50 times).. Most people just focus on trends and sometimes ranges, but there's more to the market.. The market is far from random.. People fail to realize that the market is man made.. I could show you patterns that pretty much shows up every single week.. How could that be random? Have you ever saw inside of a car engine before? It looks random as fu*k right? But ever part has a purpose.. Study it!