The 95% consensus is now just 43%

Discussion in 'Politics' started by WeToddDid2, Jul 30, 2015.

  1. WeToddDid2

    WeToddDid2

    http://joannenova.com.au/2015/07/le...-scientists-agree-with-the-ipcc-95-certainty/

    [​IMG]
    I used to think there was a consensus among government-funded certified climate scientists, but a better study by Verheggen et al shows even that is not true.[1] The “97% consensus” is now 43%.

    Finally there is a decent survey on the topic, and it shows that less than half of what we would call “climate scientists” who research the topic and for the most part, publish in the peer reviewed literature, would agree with the IPCC’s main conclusions. Only 43% of climate scientists agree with the IPCC “95%” certainty

    More than 1800 international scientists studying various aspects of climate change (including climate physics, climate impacts, and mitigation) responded to the questionnaire. Some 6550 people were invited to participate in this survey, which took place in March and April 2012. Respondents were picked because they had authored articles with the key words ‘global warming’ and/or ‘global climate change’, covering the 1991–2011 period, via the Web of Science, or were included the climate scientist database assembled by Jim Prall, or just by a survey of peer reviewed climate science articles. Prall’s database includes some 200 names that have criticized mainstream science and about half had only published in “gray literature”. (But hey, the IPCC quotes a lot of gray literature itself, as Donna LaFramboise found.)
     
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  2. Ricter

    Ricter

    So 57% of scientists are not 95% certain. See the problem there?
     
  3. ipatent

    ipatent

    Looks like the Sun's radiation has been decreasing for the past few decades creating a cooling trend that is counterweighted by the CO2 increase.
     
  4. jem

    jem

    and 75 of 77 out of 10000 created the 97% consensus...
    see the problem there?

    and these were the questions... so it was not even a group saying man man co2 causes warming.


    Q1: “When compared with pre-1800s levels, do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant?” 76 of 79 (96.2%) answered “risen.”

    Q2: “Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?” 75 of 77 (97.4%) answered “yes.”



     
  5. Ricter

    Ricter

    True, 2 of the 77 don't think human activity is a significant contributing factor.
     
  6. jem

    jem

    a group selected out of the 10000.

    As i said before it would be like sending out a survey of 10000 theology professors and asking them if Jesus is divine.

    but then looking at the group who publish in evangelical magazines... and saying 97% of theology professors believe Jesus is divine.
     
  7. Ricter

    Ricter

    Who else did you want to include, say, academic psychologists? I mean, if they employ the scientific method daily then they're scientists, right?
     
  8. jem

    jem

    your reply does not follow...


     
  9. Ricter

    Ricter

    You don't seem to think this sampling method is sufficient:

    "More than 1800 international scientists studying various aspects of climate change (including climate physics, climate impacts, and mitigation) responded to the questionnaire. Some 6550 people were invited to participate in this survey, which took place in March and April 2012. Respondents were picked because they had authored articles with the key words ‘global warming’ and/or ‘global climate change’, covering the 1991–2011 period, via the Web of Science, or were included the climate scientist database assembled by Jim Prall, or just by a survey of peer reviewed climate science articles. Prall’s database includes some 200 names that have criticized mainstream science and about half had only published in “gray literature”. (But hey, the IPCC quotes a lot of gray literature itself, as Donna LaFramboise found.)"
     
  10. jem

    jem

    I was speaking of the study that found the 97% consensus. I don't know enough about this newer study.
     
    #10     Jul 30, 2015