I am going to start this thread in order to advance in my observation phase and maybe later start posting some trades. Is important to mention that all the methodology is based on the work of Db phoenix. All the posts are going to show some back testing and forward testing work
I made a post to your previous journal which I'm sure you'll notice. As to this one, only one comment for now: don't try to force the trend channel thing. Sometimes it's obvious, and prices just fall into it. But if they don't, then the dynamic of the channel -- the limits and the median -- are of no use. So don't get distracted with it. It just adds more lines. What is more important in your 15m chart is the range that price is creating. If you set aside the prospect of a channel at the beginning of it and lower the bottom of the range to 1547-48, you'll see that you have a lot more to work with. Let the market tell you what to do and what to look at. Don't try to force price into some preconceived pattern.
This is maybe the other aspect that I did not mention on the previous post; but says a lot about the dynamic between buyers and sellers
yes, for the moment I see that the LHs and HLs, are the representation of the willingness of buyers and sellers to keep pushing the price in one direction or other, also gives clues about the probable direction of the market. P.S. Thanks for the feedback.
Just a couple of things: Note that at (2) you have a double bottom. This is followed by a HL at your green dot. These three elements would suggest in real time that an upmove is imminent. And an upmove does occur. However, it fizzles out rapidly and price reverses to the downside. This is an example of The Dog That Didn't Bark, i.e., what happens is not only not what's expected to happen but is actually the reverse. Same thing with (7). These are not "tricks" played by gangs of traders but rather phenomena which are the result of human interactions. Also note the hinge between 1145 and 1215. Given that it lasts so long, almost to the apex, one would not expect much of it, the most likely result being the beginning of a range. However, in this case, it is a prelude to a decent upmove. Therefore, anticipate a move up or down out of this but don't be disappointed if it doesn't amount to anything. And don't above all get trapped into trading whatever range may form in the belief that something dramatic is about to happen.