I agree. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-17/does-chart-look-bullish-you Complacency is extremely high right now. I'm thinking about shorting XIV or buying SPY puts.
In order to reduce cost the best would be to buy PUT spread. Maybe 208-206 PUT spread for July 31st is a good idea. ( I am not going to trade that as my plate is full)
Thanks for the tip hajimow. The put spread requires getting the time component right as well as the direction. I feel confident that the VIX will increase at some point in the future, I just don't know exactly when. That's why I feel that my probability of success is greater with the XIV short than buying a put-spread on SPY. I haven't done anything yet. I think it may be prudent to wait later in the week or next week. If earnings come out strong, we'll be heading higher.
You can buy a call spread on volatility options. You don't need to do it on SPY PUTs. The idea is to reduce the cost as you or anyone is not sure and want to reduce the cost so you can do it for future time slots of the one you picked did not work.
Unless AAPL is not halted before earning report, you can short AAPL now at 130 and put a buy order at 120 good for the day and 95% it will hit it even after hitting 120, it goes to 140. Once again I am not trading AAPL.
MSFT earnings are couple of billions short from expectations, if I recall correctly. So I'm with you on this - they will go down. as for AAPL, they have been in the same channel for over 6 months and I don't think their watches will help them break that. So I totally see them going into 120s, but lower? probably not.
I was short ADI as it was an overvalued stock. On Monday I sold 16 naked Call 65. Because of LLTC result, ADI is also down and an analyst front run this report and downgraded ADI to take credit for today's price action. I believe ADI will hit $60 in the next couple of days. So if you are looking for a quick profit, that might be a good trade. It is trading at $58.5 now.
If you followed my advice yesterday and bought ADI, well today it hit my target of $60. If I were you, I would take the profit. I don't say short it. Just leave it alone !!. By keeping it or shorting it, you may not make a quick profit. Free up your money and move on.