m22au, I don't get it. Obviously Brazil is going higher and higher since the start of your post. Why trying to short now when it could be time to buy? Sure it was a good opportunity to short 1 year ago. Perhaps it could be again a good opportunity to short in 3 or 6 months. But right now? NO WAY! Suicidal tendancies. Better short Nasdaq and Biotech. Chris Mac
The EWZ is roughly at the same level now as it was when I made my first post in the thread. Although your post was made after the close on 25 March, when EWZ closed at 31.64, it's now about 4% lower than that. So I disagree with your claim that it was a bad time to short. Your claim that "obviously Brazil is going higher and higher" is a bit hyperbolic too - the EWZ fell as low as 28.82 on 13 March. Regardless, both your opinion and mine don't matter - I started this thread to start fleshing out ideas about potential shorts, and I've made no trades on this theme in the past month. .
Brazil stocks to consider http://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/ewz...S,abev,tsu,brfs,vale,SID,ggb,ERJ,BSBR,ai,dbvt .
Seriously, who cares about a week? I presume you want to short stocks for at least one week? On a long-term basis, shorting after a 60%+ decline and a 4 years-bear market could be considered as brave or suicidal. But anyway, why not ! As you said, both your opinion and mine don't matter. If you could find some short opportunities with high reward, I would be the first to congratulate ! Chris Mac
With the 2016 summer Olympics in Brazil, my guess is their stock market will see a boost within the next year as the country will see an influx of cash and media attention. The EWZ has a 12 month trailing yield of 3.92%. The problems of course are currency risk and business risk with Petrobras being one of their top holdings. The 2008 low was around $28, and if that holds then it could start to base and rebound.
Well, why Olympics rather than World Cup for a catalyst ? My opinion : IBOV (and Petrobras) are dependent on commodities. So if WTI go above USD50 then 55, you got a strong buy. Don't wait for 2016. Chris Mac
And what happened in 2014, the year of the World Cup? EWZ rallied 15 pts off the low, all the way through end of summer. I never said to wait for 2016. I said "my guess is their stock market will see a boost within the next year" and I mentioned the 2008 low could serve well as a bottom. Yes, I agree if WTI holds the 50 level and breaks through the 55.11 print, then it's off to the races with EWZ.
It used to be that the IBovespa was quite commodity heavy but these days its less so. This is due the collapse of the commodity producers (like PBR). These days there are a lot of banks leading the index. It all comes down to whether the real estate market pops and if that takes down the banks with it. I don't have a strong view on that but I would research that front if I wanted to invest/short