Your strategy has 33.33% success rate.

Discussion in 'Trading' started by rajesheck, Jul 14, 2017.

33.33% success rate with conventional edge makes sense

  1. Yes

  2. No

  3. May be

Results are only viewable after voting.
  1. Statistically a strategy without an edge and a 1:1 RR ratio will have 50% success rate.

    1:2 RR ratio means 33.33% success rate, without an edge.

    If your edge deals only on the direction of price and not the hit rate of the stoploss then your success rate will be still 33.33% for a 1:2 RR ratio.

    Is there an edge to deal with hit rate of stoploss ?

    Why to have a fixed target when you can have an open target ?

    Why to to have a stoploss when you can predict and avoid loss ?

    See this revolutionary strategy...
    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/moment-by-moment-mbm-trading-strategy.310899
     
  2. zdreg

    zdreg

    because you can't predict. stop fooling yourself.
     
    JackRab likes this.
  3. Xela

    Xela

    Sekiyo, zdreg, JackRab and 3 others like this.
  4. speedo

    speedo

    :D:fistbump:
     
    Xela likes this.
  5. Xela

    Xela


    Lol ... I'm only making a fuss about it because he does it all the time, and if someone doesn't say something about it, it gets really out of hand (just see how many of the threads he's started are simply "advertising" other threads he's started) ...
     
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2017
  6. speedo

    speedo

    First time I've seen you lose it...everyone has a limit :D and your criticism is spot on.
     
    Xela likes this.
  7. dump it
     
  8. I beg to differ,
    You can predict, or atleast semi-predict and manage...the trade, o_O

    Obviously no one is 100% right or 100% wrong, but that alone is not that important -- it's being able to predict And manage the trade,

    It's vital you play or trade in a market you're very comfortable with, and have alot of experience with,
    Otherwise, you are truly...basically just gambling, and easily swayed and constantly second-guessing yourself into a mental asylum,

    The average trader...Can't predict.-- But since this is Elite...trader afterall, I would have to assume some people here semi-have that ability,

    I would challenge anyone to predict/trade the daily SPY/DOW chart for a month -- and compare results with me,
    (this is only a hypothetical challenge, not interested in wasting my time...and besides, I don't trade that per se...only options on that)
     
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2017
    rajesheck likes this.
  9. Let the poll talk for itself.

    Trading is all about "making money".

    Nothing more. Nothing less.

    Its an art of making money.

    My threads are my expressions.

    Nothing more. Nothing less.

    Expression leads to betterment. Thats the spirit of any forum.

    (Otherwise forum admin would have come into picture. :))

    (Each thread of mine is a betterment over the previous one. )

    I respect others view points.

    Good predictors need not be good traders.

    Good traders need not be good predictors.

    The question is "Do I know how to make money, not how to predict ? "

    I can't predict. I can only make 20+% ROI per month. Is that an issue?

    There was not a single revolution without resistance in human history.
     
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2017
    MACD likes this.
  10. Trading revolution means shift in focus

    Focus on "How to make money? "

    You can find many ways to make money and will have the freedom to choose the best one.

    Focus on "How to forecast a short term speculation ? "

    You can find many ways to predict the future price and will have the freedom to choose the best one.

    Can you see where the real freedom lies ?

    This is the revolution I am talking about.

    Premeditation : Predicting is equal to making money.

    This premeditation enslaved most traders.

    IMO not even a genius can forecast a short term speculation consistently. Buffet's quote clearly states that.

    Moreover whats the point if the stoploss hits before my prediction comes alive ?

    From these two perspectives forecasting is just a poison.
     
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2017
    #10     Jul 14, 2017