Yes or No

Discussion in 'Strategy Development' started by gotta_trade, Feb 1, 2010.

  1. If I took a course, read a book, studied the materials, and/or signed up for the service of a trading guru, followed their strategies, took the trades... What would happen?

    I think I would lose money.

    So, if I took a course, read a book, studied the materials, and/or signed up for the service of a trading guru, followed their strategies, but took the other side of the trades what would happen?

    01) Find a guru.
    02) Study their strategy.
    03) Take the trades.
    04) Lose money.
    05) After multiple trades, and excessive losses, you stop.
    06) Take time off.
    07) Find a guru.
    08) Study their strategy.
    09) Take the trades.
    10) Lose money.
    11) After multiple trades, and excessive losses, you stop.
    12) Take time off.
    Then, continuously repeat the process.

    Looking back, point blank, if I took the opposite side; if I bought when I sold and sold when I bought: I would have made money.

    Am I right or am i wrong?

    Yes or No.

    gotta_trade
     
  2. wrong.
     
  3. Please explain.
     
  4. It's just not that simple. I encourage you to give it a shot in an effort to learn from it.
     
  5. Guru posts long trade with stop "X"
    You take short trade with stop "Y"
    Stops "X" and "Y" not sized for market volatility.
    Market ranges somewhere beyond both "X" and "Y" before plummeting to new lows and beyond.
    Guru = wrong on direction, wrong on volatility. Guru loses.
    You = right on direction, wrong on volatility. You lose.
     
  6. The simple answer is that backtesting shows time and again that reversing a losing system still loses. The losing system was random, so also is the reversal of the losing aystem.
     
  7. So, with all due respect to the following gurus: If I studied the or "a" method(s), bought the book(s), signed up for the service, followed a strategy of a particular guru; Larry Williams, Jake Bernstein, Joe Ross, etc.: took some trades with the hope of realizing a profit... I would probably lose money. Let's say after 12 trades, I would then discontinue that strategy.

    But, if I recalculated those trades, taking the opposite side, would it have shown a profit? (Let's say I took 12 trades.)

    So, would it have shown a profit?

    gotta_trade
     
  8. No. I have devised scores, if not hundreds, of brilliant systems, almost all of which backtested with negative expectancy. Continued testing showed that the results varied randomly. I always reverse a losing system and test it. Not once have I ever found a wiener that way. The reason is that the time history of the inside bid evolution by the big boys is designed to frustrate every system known to man.
     
  9. ronblack

    ronblack

    You have to understand the principles. One of them is that the market is a dynamic system. It acts in ways that exterminate most weak speculators. Don't matter what their systems do, whether thet are reversed or not.

    Principles ate importnat. In flat geometry, you need 3 points to define a unique plane. If you have just two points, there is no reason to debate why you cannot define a unique plane. All you need is to remember the principle.
     
  10. wst

    wst

    Sorry to hear that Arthur, If you are always losing Arthur why don't you just throw in the towel and be-spare yourself the pain.
     
    #10     Feb 2, 2010