https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom...e-pc-shipments-to-decline-9-5-percent-in-2022 " Gartner Forecasts Worldwide PC Shipments to Decline 9.5% in 2022 Smartphone Shipments in Greater China Expected to Fall By 18% Worldwide PC shipments are on pace to decline 9.5% in 2022, according to the latest forecast from Gartner, Inc. The PC market is expected to experience the steepest decline of all device segments this year. “A perfect storm of geopolitics upheaval, high inflation, currency fluctuations and supply chain disruptions have lowered business and consumer demand for devices across the world and is set to impact the PC market the hardest in 2022,” said Ranjit Atwal, senior director analyst at Gartner. “Consumer PC demand is on pace to decline 13.1% in 2022 and will plummet much faster than business PC demand, which is expected to decline 7.2% year over year.” From a regional perspective, the EMEA PC market is forecast to record a 14% decline in 2022, driven by lack of consumer PC demand. The Russian Invasion of Ukraine, price increases and unavailability of products due to of lockdowns in China are significantly impacting consumer demand in the region. Overall, global shipments of total devices (PCs, tablets and mobile phones) are on pace to decline 7.6% in 2022, with Greater China and Eastern Europe including Eurasia recording double-digit declines (see Table 1). ... ctd ... "
The same is true of aging cars. The trick is to determine when the stock market starts to anticipate those events.
Further down that quoted press release is a table which shows that in 2021 there was a market increase of 11%. In other words, 2022 will be similar to 2020 and 2021 was "the odd one out". There was a large spike in consumer demand in 2021 because the entire world went for work-from-home schemes and Zoom meetings during the pandemic. I'm not surprised that 2022 will see a decline over 2021.
Let's not forget the various payment schemes to workers who were just sitting at home, bored, often for a year or more.