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Why to short the Canadian Dollar

  1. yes, another shameless brog promotion. But seriously, I'm very happy with this and wanted to share it with anyone interested. Feel free to visit and comment. (no snake oil to sell, just like the discussion)


    http://scriabinop23.blogspot.com/2007/11/new-train-worth-standing-in-front-of.html

    I am a contrarian by heart, and amidst the flushing of the US Dollar which has become the fashionable thing to do lately, I can't help but think several trading events are occurring structurally that give a clue that perhaps the US Dollar is not on its last legs. Not yet, at least.

    The primary tipoff is the strength in the 10 and 30 year note/bond. If the US Dollar was finished, no US dollar asset would be desireable, especially assets where value is entirely defined by yield. The long end would no longer be the preferred destination of flight to quality. 4.3% yields do not tell a story of lack of dollar hope, nor a hyperinflationary view. Trouble with particularly the US financial sector and worries of economic contagion supporting a flight to quality should not be supportive of the long end if the market view was of continued dollar devaluation (inflation pressure within the currency).

    Just as there are structural issues with the Chinese and Japanese in particular being net long end supporters and traditionally buoying the bond market with their reserves, a true dollar panic would certainly influence a sharp reversal in bond assets. An overly long market (by default due to its reserve status), just like stocks, would not have very much support at these levels. As evidenced in the August TICs report, the bond market was certainly supported amidst a the subprime meltdown by hedge funds and investment banks moving from stocks to treasuries, despite net selling by Asian treasuries holders:

    [chart ommitted]

    Fast forward three months later to the present, the long bond and 10 year note are at the same peak levels witnessed during the highest period of uncertainty, the day before the September 18th 50bps fed funds rate cut.

    Its quite possible China and Japan have been net exhaustive buyers of treasuries this past few months, in order to support their US denominated reserves amidst this flight away from the dollar. However I doubt their buying has been excessive, since almost every bullish treasury move seems dictated by lousy (for stock bulls) fear-induced equity selling climaxes. This looks to be the same buying by hedge funds, or as TICs data calls 'Carribean Banking Centers'. Obviously supported by the same flight to quality, I'm deducing this as a tell the US dollar is not finished. When US bonds sell off and yields rise to levels meant to match perceived dollar weakness and continued devaluation pressure, then finally the capital markets agree the dollar is done.

    With this as a core thesis, I am willing to conclude we are merely seeing is speculative money recklessly continuing to ride trends because they simply have been working. In the hedge fund universe, many billions of dollars can be shifted from equities and moved into the currencies and commodities (particularly crude, which is deeper than most others), as most equities are not perceived to offer a suitable risk/reward profile. TICs data from August reveals this type of movement from almost equal amounts of funds out of stocks and into bonds. That leaves plenty of cash to play with. Incidentally, the current free cash argument is embraced entirely by stock market bulls as a key reason to buy equities in this seasonally strong period. However, as banks are unveiling billions of dollars in losses on a daily basis amidst the obvious housing and possibly contagious consumer related credit crisis, why bet on equities when something else is out there?

    Right now, it could certainly be argued its easier to bet Dick Cheney will not handle Iran smoothly amidst a possible peak oil environment (continuously verified by declining North American production and seemingly vacuous information flow from key middle east OPEC producers as Saudi Arabia). Its also extremely fashionable to bet that because we had 2 FOMC rate cuts and have an extraordinarily ridiculous amount of debt to GDP, that Bernanke, Paulson, and Bush have no interest in keeping the dollar strong.

    Peak oil aside (which I argued for last year, only to see crude price collapse), arguing about whether crude is worth $100 or $70 is another issue, however. Fortunately for long crude position speculators, this runup occurred during a time of seasonal weak demand for gasoline and heating oil, primary byproducts of crude which traditionally guide demand for crude. These depressed crack spread margins have enabled a runup to occur without demand destruction to immediately become apparent. Now at $96 crude and with RBOB gasoline cracks widening back from $2 to $6 (note a $37 peak crack this spring), wholesale gasoline levels are back to all time highs. This may put a damper in the bull's optimism. Outside the US, Chinese are already rationing diesel. Demand is getting hit at these levels.

    Additionally, the Turkish/Kurd/Iraq conflict at most threatens 450K barrels/day of oil. With that seemingly neutralizing, OPEC has been additionally increasing output to meet demand.

    I see the price action in these markets as a giant trend of money flow into the same trade: Long crude, gold, Canadian dollar, short any USD, short US small caps (Russell 2K in particular, look at COT to see similar heavy short open interest), long NASDAQ (as tech is viewed relatively isolated from credit market issues), and long treasuries on bad US equities days. To reiterate, the short USD trade is not yet verified by the credit markets. 4.3% 10 year treasury yields do not agree with continued devaluation of the dollar.

    The Canadian dollar is a particularly interesting trade to take because it is a currency proxy for both US dollar weakness and Crude oil price, both which I view as being overdone and unconfirmed by treasury fundamentals. Here is the obvious correlation.




    CFTC COT (Link Here) reports reveal an 8:1 speculative long versus short position in the Canadian dollar as evidenced below:

    [cot data ommitted]

    Right now this type of lopsided open interest is paralleled in many short USD trades, particularly in the commodity currencies such as the AUD. It tells me its very one sided, very driven and protected, and that its prone to a sharp correction when all of the speculative funds find something else to be interested in (most likely equities when these banks stop releasing such horrid news).

    The obvious question is of course how far will the bulls take it? Perhaps $100 crude and 1.10 CAD, but the upside of a potential reversal and resulting long liquidation (and not enough short interest to keep covering as price supportive) makes it worth shorting both. I am short at 1.07 CADZ07 (December 07 futures), and think a move back to parity is likely. I may exit and re-enter intermediately to manage this entry, but its a trade I intend to press when it starts working.

    A short treasury position here may also be advisable. When and if a genuine dollar panic ensued, or simply if speculative funds became tired of long commodities, short equities, long flight to quality, treasuries will be in excellent position to sell off.
     
  2. I think your making a foolhardy play, here's the best example I can give you.

    What Canada has going for them?
    -Loved by every country in the world, Americans put Canadian flags on their backpacks in Europe
    -Commodity based market, OIL, Gold, Copper, were providing the next superpowers with the keys to building their infrastructure
    -A Healthy economy, where surpluses are produced every year and the deficit is going down.


    What does America have for them?
    -Social Networking

    Honestly, I dont see anything that America has going for them, how about some of these factors?

    -The worlds debtor nation
    -The Americans no longer produce the worlds major and key ideas
    -The NYSE's major winners the past 5 years have been adrs
    -A war that will never go away
    -No oil.
     
  3. I predict the 1 USD will be .75 Canadian by Next year around June.

    To All the American traders, switch your money to Canadian!

    [​IMG]
     
  4. This might be a good idea as I might illustrate on data from one forex retail platform :

    According to their real-time survey on the positioning of more than 20.000 retail traders nearly 78% of traders are long USD / CAD. This works as an contrarian indicator and signals more USD /CAD losses.
     
  5. Where do you get this information?
     
  6. ASusilovic is talking about FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI). If you have an FXCM account, you get access to twice-daily updates. If you don't have one, you can see SSI weekly updates and commentary on DailyFX (RSS feed available):

    http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strate...ro_Longs_Charge_and_Shorts_1193927997370.html

    If you are going to delve into this, note that Oanda publishes 4 different but complementary tools on the positioning of its traders, updated hourly, 24/7:

    http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/trastats/ratio_positions.shtml

    Besides open positions and ratios, you also get historical views and even currently pending orders.
     
  7. Hi Scri:

    A Cdn dollar short is a very tough trade to call. From a Cdn's perspective, here are some things you may wish to consider also:

    (a) the Cdn government has been running very large budget surpluses. This year it will clock in around $13 billion. Positive.

    (b) on Tuesday, the Cdn government gave a budget update. In it, they cut our national sales tax and accelerated corporate tax cuts. By 2011, Canada will have the lowest corporate taxes in the G8. Positive

    (c) On Friday, our unemployment report was released showing a net gain of 66 thousand new jobs. By comparison, the U.S. only created 166 thousand new jobs. By a factor of 10, we should have expected job creation in the U.S. to hit 660 thousand. Canada's job growth is outpacing the U.S. Positive.

    (d) Wage gains in Canada were +4.1% year over year. The strongest wage gains in over a decade. Positive.

    (e) the Bank of Canada is one of the only central banks in the world that has an explicit inflation rate target, 1-3%. It's been in place since 1991. The BOC's mandate is to keep inflation in check, unlike the Federal Reserve who can pick whatever goal it wishes to achieve. Positive.

    (f) there is considerable pressure on the BOC to raise rates to control inflation. On the other hand, the U.S. is now in lowering mode. The interest rate differential will grow. Positive.

    (g) Provincial governments are also enjoying fiscal surpluses which they have been using to provide additional tax cuts. Positive.

    (h) the Cdn dollar is truly viewed as a commodity currency. Until oil breaks and other commodities fall, it should be supportive of the Cdn dollar. Our terms of trade have improved considerably, what Canada sells is in great demand. Positive.

    (i) agricultural commodities are ramping up. Positive.

    While the rise in the Cdn dollar has been very swift, there seems to be considerable underlying strength.

    I'm sure there will be a very nice countertrend move at some point (I've tried trading for this one), but when does it start? Maybe it its $1.10 U.S. before a reversal happens.

    Just some food for thought.
     
  8. The reason to short the Canadian dollar is if you think the US dollar is close to a short/medium-term bounce of 10% or so. Any short-term movement in the currency will most likely have nothing to do with Canada or any fundamentals - just a pure technical reaction.
     
  9. Here is the only meaningful prediction no matter what anyone "thinks is going to happen".

    If the price flow keeps going down, then sell. If it stops going down then cover.

    If the price flow starts to flow up, then buy. If it stops going up then exit.

    Who really cares what everyone thinks?
     
  10. So would you buy BIDU, buy the CAD, and short MER and C here?
     
  11. Canadian dollar value has everything to do with oil price. Oil export price dictates the value of CAD GDP and economic success. The fundamentals you mention have really much less to do with money flow. As evidenced during last year's oil selloff, CAD plunged to .82 despite the great fundamentals you mention.

    Don't get me started on the accelerating pollution levels in Canada due to the inefficient and very difficult to scale oil sands business. 2.6 mil barrels/day of crude production (total) contributes alone 1B annually to Canadian GDP (on production/revenues received) for each dollar crude goes up. Similarly, a cut of 1B to GDP for a drop. Just by a quick view there, crude price entirely dictates whether Canada is a state of trade surplus of deficit.

    A correction in oil and decreased American exports [which will result from less attractive pricing by Canada due to currency valuation] will pressure the surplus quickly.

    https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/print/ca.html


    All growth in Canadian oil production is entirely dependent on increased natural gas well production, as oil sands depend on natural gas to boil water/steam to make the oil products. Additionally, models to Canadian oil sand profitability depend upon natural gas price staying where it is. As it is now, 1 barrel of crude contains the energy of 6MCF of natural gas. However, the price is ratio is nearly double. In otherwords, natural gas is priced twice as cheap as crude oil for energy content.

    Basically this means what has shown to be historically nonscalable natural gas production realized at current price discounts (half off) is necessary to support the key grower of Canada's GDP. Would you bet the future of your country on that?

    IF crude doesn't collapse, natural gas price WILL come to parity with crude on demand from ramped up oil production and a general trend of energy users (ie autos) starting to find natty more attractive. You'll start to see more natural gas cars -and- pressurized natural gas fueling stations pop up quickly. Give it 9 months, as a season of retail gasoline at $4.00-$5.00 in the US [which will happen if crude doesn't collapse] will quickly stimulate change.


    http://www.capp.ca/raw.asp?x=1&e=PDF&dt=NTV&dn=123361
    http://www.capp.ca/default.asp?V_DOC_ID=689


    Two other interesting points (long and short term): Copper demand and price coming down is an interesting possible canary in the mine, further illustrating that perhaps we are peaking here (in the short term) in the China boom. That has everything to do with real long term oil demand. Second, a friend did an analysis of both CAD and crude, and showed in the last 30 years or so, they have never (or rarely) been this far from the 200dma. In past instances of lesser runoffs in price, there was usually a several week quick reversion that occured.

    Having a strong currency is not easy on their exports either, as the US is their largest trade partner. Realize this.

    Wearing flags on backpacks is no way to value a currency.
     
  12. Nice additional comments.

    You have certainly provided some good information on the bear side.

    I'm indifferent as to which way it goes, only out to make a buck. For now, it seems we might be in a speculative blow off top which could take the Cdn dollar to 1.10.

    Who knows? I certainly don't. Just hoping to catch a move.
     
  13. MER sell signal came on 10/15 at 73.60
    C sell signal came on 10/15 at 46.24

    Last CD buy signal came on 8/23 at 9491
    BIDU buy signal came on 10/26 at 353.39

    "Here" is not the way.

    The short answer is yes, yes, and yes, yes.



     
  14. whats your method of determining buys and sells?
     
  15. I live in Canada, border town.

    I'll leave 2 comments.

    View the attached image - S&P 500 versus CAD since 2001.

    Supposedly 20,000 of those jobs created were bureaucrat type jobs ( GOV'T) according to today's Toronto Star.

    Gas was 78 Cents Canadian a litre in Niagara Falls, NY at Sunoco last week.

    It's about 99 Cents Canadian as of today I believe in Niagara Falls, Canada.

    The high dollar is killing all types of manufacturing jobs in Ontario, but it may not be felt for another 12 months.


    I wouldn't hesitate to participate in a short term short of the Canadian dollar however, I am biased against the USD over the next 5-10 years.
     
  16. CAD is not driven by manufactoring, it's driven by natural resources. And unlike America, BoC is not printing money like there is no tomorrow.

    USD/CAD comparison is misleading.

    Look at a minor cross such as EUR/CAD to get a sense at how the current is doing.
     
  17. Is there any actual PROOF...
    That this acts as a contrarian indicator...
    Or do people just assume these things.

    Since a smart high school student...
    Could prove or disprove your assertion in about 2 hours...
    It's hard to see how this could be of any value either way.
     
  18. [​IMG]

    Hopycrap, that's a textbook head and sholders. The currency may be ready for a huge tear.
     
  19. FACT: canada sends 82% of its exports to the USA

    FACT: all the medium to large canadian companies, have limited their near team exchange rate exposure through swaps and other methods, also contracts typically extend out months to years.

    so there will be a lag before the new exchange rates really start to bite.

    and oh yes, they will bite! it's not like canada has anything the USA really needs (besides oil - and how many people in canada make money directly from oil?). companies and people in USA will simple get their stuff elsewhere, mostly from the USA itself.
    In addition, US business will start stealing canadian work and jobs, and US exporters will make inroads into canada.

    if the canadian dollar hangs around here or gets stronger, canada is going to get hit HARD, very hard.

    short CAD long term is a great trade.

    when the usa subprime blows over and usa leaves iraq (probably both in 2009 or 2010) the dollar is going to come back with a vengence.

    I also wouldn't be surprised if china suffers some sort of implosion then too, which again would be hugely dollar positive.
     
  20. any forex position reports you see, you should just ignore

    the forex market is so fractured, fragmented, and off the books, large, and unregulated, that these types of report are laughable.

    and even if you wanted to analyze this report, its still laughable.
    78% of traders are long - and that means what?
    whose to say that the actual dollar value of the 22% are short is a 50X a larger position than the 78% who are long?
     
  21. Good points Poole, I agree completely.

    Manufacturing employs in my best guess, 5-7 million people in Canada. While mining employs something like 400,000.

    Their was a story yesterday that I read in either the Post (probably the post) or the Globe and mail saying 14 condo projects are going up in Toronto. The first round of buyers were all Canadian. Supposedly this new round is all foreigners... Asian, Eastern European ( Russian) , Saudi Arabian...

    One wonders if this boom in asset purchases by foreigners might have an effect on Canada's illiquid currency.
     
  22. Time to short the Canadian dollar. I was at Tim Hortons and the biker in front of me was talking about buying Canadian dollars. My John D shoeshine guy moment
     
  23. So Canada exports 82% of its goods to the U.S.

    And Canada is their biggest trading partner

    http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/top/dst/current/balance.html

    so Canada doesn't have anything the U.S. really needs?

    I understand that the U.S. can source products from a country with a more favourable exchange but I'm not sure if I would say that Canada has nothing the U.S. really needs besides oil. That amount of trade is sort of a freight train itself and would take a while to slow down, right?

    It takes balls of steel to short the CAD here. Someone will pick the top, but a lot of others will have their heads handed to them. I think that's a bit of what we saw on Friday. Having said that, I like Gambitman's indicator!
     

  24. only safe way to do it is to work your way in low leverage

    right now im long usdcad for .5x of my account (so not even 1:1 leverage yet)

    if it falls to .88 usdcad i will be in at 1:1 leverage

    if it goes to .80 i will be in at 2:1 leverage

    if it goes lower than that, well then USA is done for probably anyways, so moot point.

    any by needs, let me define that.... need is something that you absolutely must buy, you cant do without it nor substitute it (at least without great difficulty short term). So things that we dont need are ipods, new BMWs and Lexuses, new laptops, xbox 360s, fancy cheese from france, new mansions - the list goes on, probably 9/10ths of what the average american buys they dont actually need.
     
  25. yep, sounds like a relatively safe way to play the short side if you're a longer term CAD bear. Good luck with that trade.
     
  26. The reports I posted links to have nothing to do with "% of traders" and everything to do with the aggregate value of the long and short positions at each of those dealers. Whenever you see references to "% of traders," that's just sloppy writing, including on DailyFX (shocking, I know). Laugh all you want, but at least try to understand what it is you are laughing about.

    I do agree that such reports are probably of limited value to the casual outside observer, except at significant technical points, where the majority is usually wrong. Nevertheless, one of those dealers is running two managed currency funds (with different leverage), based on that dealer's published sentiment indicator, and both funds have been performing surprisingly well so far.
     
  27. Hum...except your friend´s observance, I agree, some good arguments, but "reversing to the mean" has been this summers nightmare for Quants...
     
  28. hehe.. on the other hand, quant reversal to the mean strategies that were leveraged were based off of short term data (days, weeks) or valuation data only relevent to the markets as they function lately.

    mean reversion strategies based off long term data (30 yrs) usually require lower leverage, since they capture long trends, thus have less accurate entrances and exits. Are much more likely to fail on a tick by tick basis.
     
  29. my comments were in no way meant that i was laughing at you personally, no insult meant

    i think the best forex position reports are probably the CFTC data on forex positions (but just the spec positions), broker reports such as oanda and others I have not found to be that useful
     
  30. None taken, so no problem at all.

    Personally, I don't use either COT or dealers' sentiment reports in any way as part of my trading. If others do, more power to them. I put the links up there in reply to a question.

    However, this stuff certainly can be fun to look at, in the middle of the night, while waiting for a setup to form. Oanda's disclaimer actually begins by stating "This information is provided to your for entertainment value only." Great, that's always confidence-inspiring.
     
  31. The FXCM SSI data is completely coincidental as an indicator. Obviously, as a trend reaches extreme levels, more and more folks will take a position on the other side. Therefore, this indicator will continue to indicate more gains the more extreme a position goes.

    At the very end of the trend (the top or the bottom), this trend will signify a continuance of that trend, and buying (or selling) into it at that time will prove fatal.

    I put no stock in this indicator.
     
  32. Yet another big day for the Cdn dollar. Where does it stop?

    Bank of Canada lowered it's growth estimate for 2008 for the Cdn economy to 2.3% from 2.6%. Should give it some room not to raise rates. Also, Cdn inflation should be non issue given that Cdn retailers are lowering prices to reflect the increase in the value of the Cdn dollar.

    Are we ready to bounce yet?
     
  33. I don't know, but this market is truly insane. This type of move is unprecedented. Trying to call a bounce would be literally standing in front of a train. It will not stop, even if the US showed massive amounts of positive data and Canada was on the brink of financial chaos. It's just going to go.

    Get out of the way of it.

    On the plus side, the strength of the Loonie is certainly sowing the seeds of it's own destruction at this level. All you have to do is be patient.
     
  34. at what currency rate canadian economy will become bigger than american?
     
  35. If you met me, you'd swear you see train wheel impressions on my forehead.

    I should revise this thread title:

    'Do you want to committ financial suicide? Short the canadian dollar'
     
  36. Ivan, you're right. This thing seems unstoppable. I'm having a hard time believing this. Can the U.S. dollar be that truly worthless?

    From a contrarian standpoint, it seems that right about when I'm ready to throw in the towel (trying for a counter trend bounce), it comes. I'm about ready.

    Here we are now, 0.9173 Cdn per 1 U.S. Wow.
     
  37. Same way as GBP/USD.

     
  38. I say short when CAD hits 1.11
     
  39. 0.9117...
     
  40. er it would have to fall to like $20 american to $1 canadian for that

    maybe more - maybe 40 or 50 to 1
     
  41. the more one sided a panic becomes, the better the entry

    for a dollar bottom you need to see the world throwing in the towel


    foreign people refusing dollars as payment, people in the street talking about how shit the dollar is, people moving all their assets outside of the USD, just no hope

    has to be a "no brainer trade shorting the USD"

    its happening.....
     
  42. Already a no brainer with the CAD. It's a one way, no risk argument.
     
  43. I have one canadian dollar next to my computer

    in about 3 years im going to buy manhattan island with it
     
  44. I understand the context of being a contrarian. However, sometime when the prevailing trend is extremely obvious and backed by undisputable fundamentals, it doesn't necessary hurt to go along with the crowd. (i.e. short the USD)

    When guys like Buffet and Jim Rogers are running away from the US dollars, you really got to have great wisdom and courage to go against them. Though of course they are never always right.

    A rally in the US dollars will almost certainely come sooner or later, but how long will it really last when more bad news are bound to come?
     
  45. I think the USD has so many bad things happening that it's still too early to find a bottom. Forex trends tend to last for decades, not months! Look how many years the CAD was in the dumps, down to 1.64/US at times. I don't think the USD will change until either Iraq is fixed, which is still looking like its never going to happen, or China stops becoming the next world super power which I also don't see happening. China dumping US assets is what I have been waiting to actually hear from them for the last couple years and we finally got confirmation. USD will only change course when theres confidence in the political leadership and foreign wars which turn into quagmires stop occuring on a regular basis. Wrose case scenario, Iran being attacked with US support would most likely result in a massive USD selloff.
     
  46. I am out of my short at the moment with some profits. I want to resell from higher levels.

    Instead I bought the AUD dip today at .9155 in the DEC futs. Oil and gold are still way too strong despite this carry unwinding, so they should remain supported for a while.

    We'll see how that works.
     
  47. Do you see how that 4 cent rally doesn't even make a blip, I am bullish for the Canadian Dollar.

    The US is an empire in decline, all hail Canada!

    :) Jokes aside, but I really do believe our American friends should park some of their savings in Canadian dollars. I think if we look at Canada's fundamentals, you can see its a very healthy country to do business, and I dont' see investors turning away from that.

    Sikh Investor
     
  48. What do you think Boone Pickens has been doing? And Arabs too. I think they now own about 15% of all oil sands stocks.
     
  49. yeah right lol

    you canadian lovers are all DREAMING

    the new exchange rates are going to lag for at LEAST another 12 months, but canada just posted its worst export performance in 10 years.....

    wait and see what happens 12 months from now after the forwards and hedges start expiring, especially if the canadian dollar is stronger than now.....

    Canada will be bleeding out of every orifice possible....

    range trading USDCAD long here between .82 and 1.00 is a no brainer..... I hope it stays here for like 3 years mired between bad usa news and bad canada news

    lol

    PS to the poster above me, no-one cares anymore whether a country is healthy to do business in, all that matters these days is profits. China is the posterboy for this mindset. And what canadians haven't figured out yet (canadians dont seem to be very smart on this angle) is that canada has just priced itself out of the market. I live in Los Angeles and i can tell you right now I have seem many meetings where very large contracts for professional services such as web development, advertising, filming etc etc are not going to be renewed with Canadian companies because it can now be done cheaper in Los Angeles.

    All hail the currency wars
     
  50. The above poster was right, in saying that a lot of new media jobs will be heading back to the States. I can tell you in particular, the film industry in Vancouver has dropped off, and businesses are struggling to find new markets.

    Oh well, well manage without the States, eventually.
     
  51. and usdcad has rallied 6% off the bottom, what a surprise (not)

    taken 50% profit, keep taking profit all the way up to 1.02

    re-enter if usdcad goes down again

    re-enter .94 .92 .90 .88 .86 .84 and .82

    yehaaawwww
     
  52. I think it would be smart for all Canadians to buy cheap US$ assets, with their oil profits. Especially if the US$ and real estate cratters even more in the next few years.



     
  53. My system just generated a long signal on USDCAD. This means I have to buy at the close. It is a scarey feeling. I think I feel sick.
     

  54. wow. great fucking luck. try to go short the USD once in a while and look what that gets me.

    Oh well. Should've just stuck with short CAD.
     
  55. you should have been buying all the way down

    lol
     
  56. thread gone very quiet since USDCAD rallied 8% now
     
  57. i was always long USD as shitty as the fundamentals are. Its just plain in the interest of the joeblow Canadian manufacturers.
     
  58. well I certainly talked my book in this thread

    this could be my dream trade for the next 3 years

    if USDCAD ranges between .82 and 1.00 im going to be rich

    RICH I tell you
     
  59. Why do think the U.S. has no oil? Where do you get your information from? Do you feel faint? Do you have a fever?
     
  60. "If " is not a nice word. If price goes up, then buy. If price goes down, then sell. You have the same bug I had a few months, yes I said months, ago. I am still feeling the effects of my illness.
     
  61. "Honestly, I dont see anything that America has going for them, how about some of these factors?

    -The worlds debtor nation
    -The Americans no longer produce the worlds major and key ideas
    -The NYSE's major winners the past 5 years have been adrs
    -A war that will never go away
    -No oil."

    I meant to say no major oil reserves, I guess I can be the first to say maybe perhaps I was wrong.


    The CDN is currently trading at 102.37, the last time I looked. It was down 8 cents, but if you long in the long term scheme of things, I still feel the Canadian Dollar is still bullish, due to commodities. Heck I may be wrong, but I guess I would be foolhardy not to admit a mistake, when I see one.
     
  62. But exports have really been hit lately by a more than 25% increase in the dollar. At some point the story will start to change, exports won't forever prop the dollar up.
    Either way the trend is downwards for the CDN.
     
  63. You are a fool.
    America runs Canada.

    The US Dollar will go where the US FED wants it to go.
    If you are smart, you should buy US Dollars NOW.

    The Canadian Dollar will be back to 80 cents US within a couple years. Canada can't export with their high social costs over 80 cents/US Dollar.

    From one who really knows.

    A dual Citizen, with many decades in each country.

    Cheers!





     
  64. No need to insult me, there.. But look at a 5 year chart, where does the US dollar go. It continues to go down, what fundamentals would there for be an .80 cent Canadian Dollar. Honestly I dont see it happening,..
     
  65. ain't seen a bounce in this one to buy
     
  66. It looks like oil sales will be deregulated very soon and oil countries will start selling oil for their own currencies

    and then US will have to buy canadian dollars to pay for its oil

    by that time I wouldn't exclude 10 US$ for 1C$ and beyond, probably tripling each year

    Canadians will be able to buy Manhatan condo for 3-6 month pay

    Illegal immigration from US will reach epic proportions. It won't be possible to US citizens get canadian Visa

    Only citizens from oil producing counries like russia and mexico will be able to enter Canada visa free
     
  67. I realize it is fun to discuss these kind of fundamental issues, but I will never understand why anyone would want to spend there time trying to predict price movement. It is a losing game at best. Just follow the price and manage risk.
     
  68. Whatever you are smoking it is doing permanent damage to your brain. If you hate the USA so much, why do you hang out on a US based website?

    By the way, "Way to go" Canada! Sign the Kyoto accord for a photo op and make the US look bad, then years later Canada pulls out! Why? Because Canada cannot meet the accord! At least GW Bush came out "up front" and said it wasn't attainable. Canadian politicians are slimeballs, just like the majority of politicians worldwide.
     
  69. In reply to this, the above poster is absolutely correct. The politicans in Canada, are from the same flesh as their American counterparts. Kyoto was fairly unpopular in some areas of Canada.
     
  70. Thank you.

    Now, despite Canadian voter mentally being primarily "Liberal" & "Socialist", isn't the new Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper doing a good job with the Canadian Economy? He lowered income taxes, GST etc.

    I would personally like to see him fix the Canadian Health Care system and brought up to par with US Standards. Far too many people on eternal wait lists for critical health services in Canada. If Canada can find some way to fix the system it would be a good model for the USA. In the meantime, health care in the USA is far superior with top notch Doctors, technology and facilities. If Americans would only consider the difference in Income Tax paid in Canada vs the US they would understand that with a US health insurance plan, they are way ahead.

    From one who knows from decades in both countries.:D
     
  71. the doctors should all be "conscripted" at canadian med schools. They should increase the size of the current program by 3 fold, and If you want to enter, you must agree to a call back to work in Canada for up to 4 years after med school. This would force graduates to stay in Canada.
     
  72. Yeah, I can imagine that would make lots of graduates want to enter the medical profession. Why earn big bucks in finance or law when you can become a slave to the Canadian government for 1/10th of the salary?
     
  73. why isnt CAD strengthening already

    I need to re-enter short
     
  74. what a trade this has been

    I called this one to perfection, long all the way from .91 and still long

    going to exit final step at 1.02

    now i can only hope it goes back down so i can relong it sub 1
     
  75. That's a signal in itself..:cool:
     
  76. Damn, she shot right up though didn't she. good god man lookout.

    what made her shoot up so much. It didn't surprise me all that much.
     
  77. Yes, and the SSI showed that USD/CAD was a STRONG SELL right there, too. And where is it now?

    Don't have to answer. I think I proved how "coincidental" the indicator is.
     
  78. What is an SSI mr. ivanovich
     
  79. Read the thread, Mr. Jellylip. Also, check the forums on DailyFX.com - home of the indicator itself.
     
  80. okay will do. thank you.
     
  81. lets all join hands now and pray for USDCAD to go back down to 0.90

    I need refills on all my positions i'm almost empty

    kummmbbaayaaaaaaaaa
     
  82. I agree. Looking at Oanda's positioning (which presumably reflects a much larger retail base than the SSI), USD/CAD has been 60-80% net long all year. It was no more or less a "sell signal" at .9057 than it was all year, same as the SSI.