Why President Obama Will Beat Romney in November

http://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2012/02/06/why-president-obama-will-beat-romney-in-november/



Why President Obama Will Beat Romney in November


It’s beginning to look like President Obama will be facing former Massachusetts governor, Mitt Romney, when the Oval Office goes up for a vote this November. And Obama has a good chance of winning another term.

I am hardly an objective observer. After all, in 2007, I attended Obama’s 47th birthday party and gave money to his first presidential campaign. And back in 1995, I worked with Romney’s colleagues at Bain Capital – an experience I found professionally valuable. In short, I have no ax to grind against either of the two candidates.

Nevertheless, I will give the odds of winning reelection to Obama. As I posted, there are five good reasons to re-elect him.




Foreign policy. As Commander in Chief, Obama has done a masterful job. He took out Osama bin Laden; he helped spur the NATO coalition that stopped Moammar Gadhafi; and he ended the Iraq War. And his use of drones to strike terrorist targets in Pakistan is a particularly effective use of our technology and intelligence to take out our enemies with minimal risk to American troops.

Stock market. In the three years since he took over as President, the stock market has rallied sharply. On January 20, 2009 the S&P 500 index was at 832. By February 3rd, it had recovered to 1,344 – a 17.3% compound annual growth rate (the second best in the last 65 years).

Corporate profits. In 2010 and 2011, corporate profits hit record levels. Specifically, profits in 2010 were $1.66 trillion and as of August 2011, they were up 8.3% from 2010 – meaning that at that rate, 2011 profits totaled $1.8 trillion — setting a new all-time record as revenues grew 7%.

Improving economy. When Obama took the oath of office, the U.S. economy was in economic free-fall. It’s far from the pink of health – but with 3% growth in the fourth quarter and 853,000 jobs created in in 2011’s second half, it is getting better. And the January 2012 jobs report came in with a much-better-than-expected 243,000 jobs created.

Courage. Obama with his low key, professorial demeanor is an exceptionally courageous person. The deeply held hate he must encounter on a daily basis is probably unprecedented for any U.S. president.




And a February 6th poll published in the Washington Post indicates that most Americans think that Romney does not compare favorably to Obama. That poll concludes that 55% of those who are closely following the campaign say they disapprove of what the GOP candidates have been saying.

By better than 2 to 1, Americans say “the more they learn about Romney, the less they like him.” Even among Republicans, the numbers who don’t like Romney equals the numbers who assess him positively.

Meanwhile, Obama’a recent State of the Union Address is getting better public feedback. Of the 60% of Americans who heard or read about his State of the Union address, “57% say they approve of most of what he laid out.”

And as the election approaches, Obama’s prospects are improving. According to the Post, Obama leads Romney “52 to 43% among all Americans and 51 to 45%, among registered voters.”

And Obama’s momentum is improving. Among all adults, this poll is Obama’s first time polling over 50% in a direct comparison with Romney since July and it’s his first time ever above that point among registered voters.

Of course the election is nine months away and that is an eternity in politics. If the economy continues to produce more jobs than expected and economic growth improves, that good news kicks away Romney’s best argument for taking the Oval Office.

Meanwhile, The New York Times reports that Obama’s team is taking advantage of all the foot-in-mouth comments from Romney. These comments include his eagerness to fire people and his lack of concern for the poor even as Romney continues to pay a less than 14% tax rate on his millions in annual income.

Despite his best efforts, Romney cannot shake the family history of making comments that hurt the Romney men politically. We still remember George Romney’s comment that he had been “brainwashed” by generals on America’s success in Vietnam.


As Massachusetts learned when Mr. Romney was governor, he is ot scary and can do good things while in office – not the least of which is the health care law he is now running away from. But Obama has taken the lousy hand left him by George W. Bush and played it remarkably well.

For that, I think he deserves a second term – and if the economy continues to improve, he is likely to get it – particularly if he faces Romney.

 

Romney was vetted by the MSM as their boy!! He's hardly to the left of center at all, they can live with that.. I'm going to write in Ron Paul or not vote at all.. but I really think that we are looking at the very end of the good days in the US of A, I really do believe that we are going to be considerably worse off by election time.. We're going to go into a downward spiral and have to throw people out of the lifeboat. The loudest rioters will keep their share while the rest will have to go peacefully into the night..

We progressed from an engine of economic progress and a net lender to a welfare state with a gutted economy and became the world's biggest debtor. Who would not believe that the next step will be in the same direction, right into the SHTF scenario...

I'm still not prepped for it at all.. I've got to get on the stick, I do have farmland [and not my own well either] but that's about it..