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Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

  1. Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

    I have read thru some of the recent and distant posts in this section, and have come to the conclusion that; the obvious is not so obvious to many!

    There appears to be a lot of textbook information being thrown around, especially in relation to position sizing and risk management.

    What every trader has to realise, is that all the risk management and position sizing techniques in the world are of no use what so ever, unless the trader is aware of the obvious pre-requisite to trading any market.

    It will be very interesting to see what answers the many traders come up with for the obvious, those with little and lots of experience alike!
     
  2. the starting biggest problem, is that most traders think they will somehow be in the 5% that are going to be profitable. Everyone else is going to be the 95%.

    The continuing biggest problem is that the trader never really has an outperformance edge. And all the position sizing and risk management in the world will not overcome the house advantage (commissions, fees, slippage, errors, etc. etc.)

     
  3. Whilst we know that we can never compete on the same scale as the finance business professionals, the fact remains that all a trader has to do to make money in any market is BLASH or SHABL.

    However, unless the obvious is known, a trader will find it very hard to make money from trading, with BLASH and SHABL becoming BLALL and SHALH!
     
  4. Walander puts it elsewhere that the "majority seemingly lack general common sense". I agreed with him
     
  5. How is slippage, errors house advantage? Can a trader not capture others slippage and errors? I can penny a market maker and be the best bid.
     
  6. edge and the capital
     
  7. Capital is obvious, but what is the "edge"?
     
  8. Who ever he is, he is correct.

    But common sense thinking, in itself, is of limited value unless a trader knows what he/she needs to know!
     
  9. the house is the market. the slippage is what you pay to trade bid/ask, etc.. the errors are making mistakes, which everyone will do. Unless you are on the floor, you are not immune to these, commissions or fees.
     
  10. nysestocks,

    you didn't conclude this thread and I am still curious what did you mean by the obvious? Not a bad thread - some interesting thoughts here...
     

  11. Trading is not easy, but it is possible to make money if you know what you have to do.

    For this discussion we will assume that we are talking about daytraders, not investors!

    When a daytrader starts to trade live for to make a living, it is normal for everything that he/she has learned up to that point to fall apart.

    This will happen for several reasons, which we will probably get as many answers as traders, but it really happens due to one obvious reason, which is not so obvious!

    I think it best for now that traders try and come up with the answer, not for a guessing game, but it will make them think about what they are doing, and when the answer is eventually out in the open, and I am certain that some traders will get it, it will then become obvious why this very important pre-requisite to trading is so important to success.

    However, knowing what is required, and knowing how to do it correctly, are not one in the same (that is actually a hint if read correctly).
     
  12. Because asking the average person to think for themselves is a lot like asking water not to flow, it goes against nature and it simply won't happen.
     
  13. The not so obvious:

    1. The ability to leave your ego at the door before entering the trading room. Ego kills the 95% of traders who fail.

    2. Thinking. The first time you get your Pattern Day Trader notification from your broker, there should be a big red letters that say: "Warning: Day trading while thinking is hazardous to your wealth."

    Observe, Learn, See, Act.
     
  14. why is the obvious not so obvious?

    well, isnt that obvious?
     
  15. Since you are talking about daytrading for a living transition I would say that one of the major prerequisites is the ability to detach from the meaning of money. Every trade comes with a risk and a set of trades can easily turn into a drawdown. Perception of risk may change significantly for someone whose only income is trading as opposed to someone who gets a regular paycheck and plays the market on the side. This results in extra fear which in turn results in delayed entries, missed trades and late exits effectively destroying the small edge that existed before. It is essential to focus on the quality of trading plan execution. This of course is easier said than done.
     
  16. this has potential to be a good thread...
     
  17. Lesson in pattern reconition and position management, and you only need to be able to remember 1 or 2 patterns, not count into a 6 chute deck. 1 for bad 2 for good.


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RW1qHA5Hqwc
     
  18. It is very hard to detach from money, no matter how hard we try.

    Maybe this will clear things up a bit?

    Making money in the markets consists of a few simple actions on the part of the trader, as follows:

    BLASH - Buy Low And Sell High

    or

    SHABL - Sell High And Buy Low

    and for a lesser few we have:

    BHASH - Buy High And Sell Higher

    or

    SLABL - Sell Low And Buy Lower

    No matter how much you understand risk control, how smart you are with position sizing, and how quickly you exit losing trades, it is all no damn use unless you know what the obvious is, which of course is not obvious to the majority!

    The reasons why it is not so obvious are many, but namely due to the idiots who think they are experts, and for some stupid reason (possibly human nature), the majority are like, if you pardon the phrase, sh*t to a blanket!

    I am considering explaining clearly to new traders what they "must" do if they want to succeed, but as I know only 1 or 2 will actually benefit from it, I might not do it.

    I am no expert, but I don’t have to be to make money trading, no one does!

    But, if one wants to succeed, then you know what they must do, and I will not repeat it again as I don’t think I need to.
     
  19. As Raymond said, "One 5"!

    Looks like a good film; I must download it and watch it :)

    The problem with Pattern Recognition is that you are going on the assumption that an historical event will repeat itself.

    Some even bring a myriad of calculations into the equation!

    When ever we assume anything we run the risk of making an ASS out of U and ME.

    To me, this sounds very like wishing and hoping, and we all know what that will do to a trading account!
     
  20. Buy when the price is going up.

    Sell when the price is going down.

    Be patient.

    Almost any trade will eventually make money.
     
  21. Very good point, but you are missing one very important thing about trading.

    Opportunity Cost
     
  22. That is why plenty of capital is necessary and more than one account or an arrangement with your broker to be long/short at the same time.
     
  23. Yes, but the human life span is generally limited to around 100 years :D :D :D
     
  24. I got a little confused there for a minute, is it doji or nodoji :)

    All the money in the world, along with all the risk management in the world, along with the best way to maximise leverage, along with low or no commissions, along with the best data feed, along with all the other rubbish things like indicator this and indicator that, will be of no use to you unless you are aware that you must know what the obvious is!
     
  25. And the obvious is - positive expectancy - why all the subterfuge
     
  26. Mind games.
     
  27. You act like you have some secret that no good trader would give up. Everything is in the open that anyone needs to make trading work for them. Its the endless search for the holy grail that ruins most people, rather than working with what they have and improving small things time and time again.

    Its the extra .05 in commissions or the extra 1% addition to your edge that is going to help you month after month. Not something found in your indicator collection.

    YES I HAVE ONE TOO.
     
  28. Positive expectancy, aka, making money, will only be a result when the obvious is known!
     
  29. I do not act, I just state what I know to be facts based on my experiences!

    You are 100% correct when you say "everything is in the open", but the vast majority, and it is nowhere near the so called 95%, do not have one clue about it!

    As mentioned previously, maybe not in this thread, the majority are fed rubbish for obvious reasons, but a handful have cracked it, and they do not part with their hard discovered details that easily.

    FWIW, you do not need one single indicator, nor do I use any - how is that for a clue!
     
  30. Unless you use it you lose it!
     
  31. it is what it is...obviously
     
  32. You missed my point in your attempt to differienciate yourself.
     
  33. anything can happen

    have a successfull plan and have the discipline to stick to it
     
  34. nysestocks, what you consider to be "the obvious", may not be what someone else considers it to be. Though both may be correct. I think you should clarify.
     
  35. All you need to profit is join a trend. Like the oil bubble, or commodities bubble. When everybody goes long, you go long too, untill your TA shows signs of topping.
    You need to find a way to join the herd, then you will profit.
     


  36. what is obvious to me, and not obvious to everyone else posting, is the OP has no clue himself. He's pissing in the wind like everyone else.
     
  37. the point here is ,its not going up or down or sideways because.....it just is....you're acct is not goig up or down because of.... it just is....when you stop reading some twisted blend of you're own personal take on everything ,it becaomes zen like...it just is what it is....obiously
     
  38. To be part of the 5%, you would obviously have to be on the other side of the trade of the 95% ! ;-)
     
  39. Letting the market make the calls.
    ie; How wide is your envelope?
    Some times trend, some times counter.
    How can one "Let his winners run"
    and "Cut his losers short" without being
    in tune with the above?
     

  40. I also have no use for indicators, without a thorough understanding of business basics they are useless, and even then often absolutely disasterous!

    To expand, throw away all the garbage you've been fed, stop being baffeled by the bullshit and study basic business principles, until you completely understand these you are simply doomed to a fruitless search. Think fishmongers, fruit and veg shop proprietors, coin and collectables dealers, used car dealers etc, these people don't try to predict anything yet they generally make money, "go figure." Buy low sell high, you've heard it a lot but do you really comprehend the requirements and implications inherent in achieving this? Consider their approaches carefully for these people ( the successful ones ) are truely traders in their chosen fields.

    Regards

    Johno
     
  41. There is no one so blind as a no-eyed deer! The OP has already given you the answer, do some thinking and make an effort to comprehend rather than expect someone to lay it in your lap.

    The replies show very clearly who does and who does not make money speculating in the markets, I would suspect that NY's motive in posting is simply curiosity to see who's who in the zoo!

    Best Regards

    Johno
     
  42. That's kind of what I was thinking.
     
  43. Well Nysestocks,

    I’ll tell ya what won’t work SLABH, / BHASL

    I did both today – then spent the rest of the day digging out of it (still ended the day down $186.38 including commissions)

    Am I mad – no, / frustrated with myself – Yep



    So (as I imagine you’re still lurking in the shadows) exact your pound of flesh – Lord knows I’ve taken you to task


    But at least I’m keeping it real (not meant as slam at you Nysestocks - just me owning up to the truth)


    Tomorrow's another day


    Redneck
     
  44. Good to see you can still keep your sense of humor Red!

    Regards

    Johno
     

  45. Thank You Sir

    BTW I figured out why the obvious isn’t so obvious – to me today


    Cranium up nether region:confused:


    See ya
    Redneck
     
  46. Hence the red neck?

    Regards

    Johno
     
  47. Ok so what you are saying is that other than a trader cutting their losers and letting winners run, using proper position sizing, being properly capitalized and having the right mindset there is another key ingredient missing (as you say, the obvious) that is required to be profitable?

    As others have stated, you must have an edge. First and formost you need to be betting on the more probable direction. I.e the chart, as confirmed by higher time frames as well as your current timeframe must be indicating that a certain direction is more likely than the other. Then you trade in that direction.

    Have I missed out the obvious?
     
  48. You are not correct, but that is normal!
     
  49. Agree 100% - but this is not the obvious that a trader needs to know in order to make money.

    A trader who knows nothing about business strategies can still make good money, if he/she knows what the must know, and do what he/she must do.
     
  50. What is obvious is that day trading/short term trading (For that matter, even long term 5 years in the equity market as it is now) is a negative sum game for the average. You have to find a way to turn this into positive for yourself.
     
  51. Of course.

    The majority of people who try to daytrade lose money.

    The reason why they lose is very simple, and very common.

    If the majority of traders lose, why then do new traders think that they will win by following and doing what the majority do?
     

  52. Brings to mind a question - how do you know that do or do not know?

    Ten years ago I thought I knew what I needed to know. 5yrs ago I had learned more but still thought I knew what I needed to know.

    For me it is simply doing what needs to be done - taking the action necessary - the mechanics of the trade - following MY rules, cause as we know there are two sides to a trade and both can make money.
     
  53. bla bla bla .... This thread is a useless read....

    Why do 95% of traders fail? What does a trader need to know in order to be successful? Who gives a flying fuck? No ... really ....

    Stick around long enough and you'll know what you have to do to make money... And that's that... what the hell .... ?
     
  54. all this talk about the obvious and the not so obvious is completely stupid...

    you can make money from the obvious if you plan on using the obvious and you can make money from the not-so-obvious if you plan to do that...
     
  55. We will ignore those that are unable to think for themselves!

    You have raised a very important question.

    How are you supposed to know what it is you need to know?

    It is in fact very very simple.

    What you must know is what the majority does not, nor will ever, know!

    If the majority know then it will be of no value.

    Why do you think some traders never post - because they think they have found a secret formula that works for them, and if they share it, it will become diluted, thus reducing the effectiveness of what they know.

    What you must know is how to leap frog in front of all other traders. This requires some simple logical deduction, the quick dismissal of idiots who post rubbish, they ability to read and decipher what others who seem to know what they talk about actually write - many people, unknown to themselves, give away many clues about the knowledge they have in what they write.

    And finally, the ability to question and hold the attention of those that seem to know, for, contrary to what the majority believe, few have indeed cracked it, but they are very slow to part with the hard earned information, for reasons that I have already mentioned.
     
  56. we need to call the secret ninja trader who possesses the magical zen touch who will show us the not-so-obvious truthful way into the light ....
     
  57. You remind me of "Phantom of the Pits".
    -In style at least.
    I remember his "Rule #1."
    "Let the Market tell you when you're right
    but never when you're wrong."
    -Something to that effect.
     
  58. POP is just another story generated for the suckers by bArt Simpson.

    I have read the story and it is of little value to any trader that wants to learn how to take money from others!
     
  59. my answer is still the best answer.

    Edge and capital. For those who said capital obvious - think of it as sufficient capital to make sure you stay in the game if your edge goes away and you need to find a new one.
     
  60. Yes we think we know what we know

    And

    We’re under the impression that we know what we don’t now

    But the problem is

    We don’t know what we don’t know.

    As far as the obvious goes

    Just look over your own shoulder and see if you can’t see what it is you are doing that is preventing you from achieving whatever goals you have set for your self.

    Then stop doing it!!
     
  61. Easier said than done!

    The obvious is simple, and it is because it is so simple that 99.999% do not even stop to try and work it out.

    I am not being silly or wasting peoples' time here- just stating what I know to be a fact.

    There are a handful of traders on ET that know what the obvious is, but they will not say it as they want to keep the so called "edge".

    I am giving some traders the chance to try and discover something that will change how they trade, and also enable them to make some good money!

    It is up to each individual if they want to try and work it out, or not!
     
  62. This is not the answer that I would give!
     
  63. one obvious is that timing is important. With this volatitility you can be long or short and still "be right" at some point during the day. The way to make money is hitting your target before your stop.

    Is anyone on the right track to "the obvious" ?

    Do you successful traders know "the obvious" or is nysestock playing mind games? :p
     
  64. So the next obvious question I would ask is what answer would you give?
     
  65. At the risk of sounding like an ass - yes some do

    I predict that most will discount it once it is reveled - which is a shame in itself

    Redneck
     
  66. I think it has something to do that most traders assume they know something - so by approaching a trade with a clean slate, you have a leg up on everybody else. At least that's what I deduced from the comments.
     
  67. You sounding like an ass would be quite a leap; one of the nicest guys on here.

    Maybe I am getting off-base here but:
    I do feel there is an obvious many people, including myself, are missing. I never believed that successful traders have better software or some high-tech indicator. I feel it must be a phsycological edge or profitable exploit. Maybe it is revealed everyday and maybe we are unable to see it.

    soon.
     
  68. No!

    Not one person has come near.

    This is not a wind up. If someone gets it then I will not lie and I will say it is right!
     
  69. If I gave the answer you would not believe me!

    If someone else gets the answer then you might see that I speak the truth!
     
  70. As I mentioned previously, a few will indeed know it, but will not say it as they think it will affect their so called "edge"!
     
  71. ASSUME = ASS of U and ME
     
  72. You are 100% correct, but you must drop all that psychological bull!

    If you trade you gamble.

    If you gamble, and you want to win, you must play smart and dismiss all the idiotic rubbish that is put forward by so called "experts".

    There are NO experts in the trading game - full stop!
     
  73. I am rapidly losing interest in this site, so I am not going to post for a while unless some serious questions are asked to raise the bar a bit!

    This thread is not for beginners, who must go thru the discovery process, even though they don't realize it until it is too late!

    I will leave you with the following for consideration.

    1) Daytraders have little or no effect on stock market liquidity.

    2) MM's hedge their bets.

    3) Big Money will not stay in the same place for too long a time.

    4) When you think you should be buying you really should be selling.

    5) When you think you should be selling you really should be buying.
     
  74. NYSESTOCKS,

    I know it will not affect my edge one bit - for several reassons

    1.) Too hard for most to do

    2.) Too many will discount it thinking it too simplistic

    3.) Too many do not believe (trust) themselves to act on what they are seeing


    Truth be known I am my own edge - IMHO of course (and no one can affect it because I will not allow it) Sir...

    The obvious is just the way I trade - every flippin day - day in and day out


    Darkhand – Thank You Very Kindly Sir

    Take Care
     
  75. BLASH

    1. Exit price point >= entry price point.

    2. Odd for price to go up from entry point > odd for price to go down from entry point.
     
  76. You want to compete against market maker in your retail account?
    But you pay about 1 cent commission on each trade, while market maker pays nothing.

    These days, 1 cent equals 0.2% to 1% for most "blue chip" stocks.

    It's tough to earn 0.2% on each trade in a market making strategy :) Therefore you will necessary lose.
     
  77. 2. Odd for price to go up from entry point > odd for price to go down from entry point.

    In a downward price movement, I look for the progression through the following stages

    a.) reducing of selling pressure, then
    b.) somewhat neutral between selling and buying, then
    c.) attempt to move higher.

    While price in b.) and c.), I try to locate three price points X, Y and Z that satisfy the following (with X > Y > Z)

    If price gets to Z, it negates b.) and c.) therefore not worth it to hold on if I already entered. If price gets to Y, it confirms b.) and c.) then it is the potential entry point. And for X, is this "prized" price attainable and how fast it can get there?

    From X, Y and Z, I can determine my position and my risk. If I feel good with the supposed outcome (gain or loss), then I take the trade when price hits Y
     
  78. 4) and 5) remind me of the saying "don't try this at home, these acts are performed by professionals" after you see a stun show on TV.

    For 2), who provides MM hedge ?
     
  79. Finally, an intelligent post on this thread.
     

  80. MoneyMagnetDude / MandelbroSet


    With all due respect Gentlemen – The way you both are thinking - is exactly how the herd thinks - and trades

    Food for thought

    Redneck
     
  81. Redneck,

    Thanks for eliminating one of the candidates. Now lets embark on the next path: greed/fear, would you mind hinting if this is the general direction?

    MMD
     
  82. But what have I eliminated - really (I work from home ....)

    And no - no hints - it's the OP intention to get folks to think this through
     
  83. LOL, the real question is ... how much more bullshit can be posted on ET in a given day?

    Once you have the answer to that one, you'll have the solution to the riddles posed in this thread.
     
  84. The obvious is you have to be a gambler to not be a gambler:

    Treat every bet as a gamble with no emotions attached, thus it is easy to let a small loser go, same t as you lose a hand in a casino game, and wait to place your next bet. (Amateurs can not take a small loss because he/she thinks it is not a gamble).

    The obvious is you not to be a gambler to gamble:

    Do not gamble on any bet(set up)! Only place bets on the best selected bets! (Gamblers have not choice but to place bets randomly).

    And be the best gamblers of all, adding to your winners and that is what day trading with high leverage/small risk is all about! Otherwise you are wasting your time staring at the screen all day!

    Long Live POP! (Phantom of the Pits)

    REDNECK: I enjoy all you posts. Thanks.
     
  85. Somewhere around 11.88 by the looks of things!
     
  86. Watch the movie revolver for the answer.
     
  87. The reality is that I could spell it out in Black & White and it would still make no difference!

    There are very few traders that really know how the markets operate. Some are close, unknown to themselves, and if these traders were to become aware of the obvious, they would literally clean up, as they have all the pre-requisites in place to enable them to move to the next level.

    It does not matter what people think, but what does matter is what they do!

    As mentioned previously, all the standard "stuff" that is in the public domain is there for a specific reason.

    Do what the majority do and you will get what the majority get!

    Some years ago, in the Great Pyramid, a German explorer discovered a small door at the top of the shaft leading from the Queen's Chamber.

    Without further delay, the exploring was called off by the authorities, and the door, to this day, as far as is known, was never opened.

    What has this to do with successful trading, you might ask?

    Everything, if you but stop and think!
     
  88. YOU CAN ONLY GET SMARTER BY PLAYING A SMARTER OPPONENT
    :D

    You are very close trackstar, and the "gambling" side of trading is of immense importance, but it is not THE answer!

    It is because THE answer is so simple that it is never discovered by the majority!
     
  89. From the secret workings of the the insiders (LOL) to the Great Pyramids ... the only thing you're missing is your website offering to teach traders everything they need to know to make a million dollars in the markets for $34.95.

    ROTFLMAO :p :D
     
  90. Caementarius spake thus:

    The obvious is that to profit from changes in price, you must have some understanding of the _causes_ of those changes.

    "Happy is he who knows the causes of things, and may subdue all fears and implacable fate, and trample the roar of greedy hell beneath his feet." -- Virgil
     
  91. Thanks and Regards
     
  92. If the deduction methods you use for trading are anywhere as near as your normal deduction methods, then you must be the worst trader on record!
     
  93. Nah, my methods of deduction are working quite well, thank you.

    After all, I knew that the only posts you were going to be responding to would be mine ... LOL :D

    Now, please continue with your mind(fuck) games. :eek: :p
     
  94. I am very impressed by your quote caementarius :)

    Many tend to forget that man does not live on bread alone!

    "But if anyone’s whole stock has failed him, and he knows not how to restore the race in a new line, then it is also time to reveal the famed device of the Arcadian master [Aristaeus], and the mode whereby often, in the past, the putrid blood of slain bullocks has engendered bees. From its fount I will unfold the whole story, tracing it back from its first source."

    2
    8
    1
     
  95. You are welcome MMD.

    In order to make any real progress in the silly and ridiculous world of trading, you must be willing to turn from the crowd, no matter what the perception may be.

    Always remember, most of the idiots on the other end of a keyboard do not have one iota of how the markets operate!

    I can tell what a person knows about trading by reading the first few lines they post, and if you want the whole truth, very few on this site, or any other site for that matter, know anything of real value about how to take money from other traders, with the least amount of risk, for the greatest amount of profit.

    If you take the time to read what I write, and compare to what others write, then you will see that I speak from experience and truth. I have no reason to lie or lead people astray, no matter what others may wrongly imply with silly childish statements!

    The ability to quickly learn from others is sometimes called "wisdom". Today we have about one wise person in a billion, so now you see why there are so many experts that know everything about this and that.

    I post for one reason and one reason only and that is, to show up the so called trading experts for what they really are!

    Always remember that there are no experts in the trading game - this is the first and last principle, and without fully understanding it you are doomed to follow in the footsteps of the ignorant and ill informed.

    Never be afraid to tell someone that they speak rubbish, but you must be wise enough to differentiate rubbish from common sense and logic - this might sound easy but it is in fact very difficult, and you can thank our revered academic circle for that privilege!

    To know what you must know is your goal!

    To differentiate between what you must know and what you know, well, will only be realized by listening to people like me.

    This is not egoistic or anything of the like - it is merely the facts!
     
  96. It must be getting near the 12 mark now!
     
  97. That one is a good one but I think there are a few more grand parallels. One being your have to first know yourself and then know how to differentiate what yourself is telling you. You are in the majority if you do what you KNOW, regardless of what you think. Instead you have to know the smarter opponent and then BECOME the smarter opponent. The problem is identifying the smarter opponent in you verses the ignorant self. Then comes the battle of keeping your old self out of your head. That I have not fully mastered yet...not sure if it can truly be done.

    Some will flame me here...let it begin.

    :)
     
  98. MMD, I did not reply direct, and I will do so now, as it is warranted!

    "Try us, you may be surprise. Is the word MANIPULATION getting any close?"

    YES & NO - every business venture has some sort of manipulation, but in relation to taking money from other traders on a daily basis, forget it and drop it now!

    "Does this have anything to do with building/distributing the gigantic position in a shortest time period with minimal premium? "

    NO - most of the idiots who trade other peoples' money (e.g. pension funds) change their mind much like the wind shifts direction!


    "I know this, and I thought that everything is recorded on the price chart. Is it not? Forgive me for being a curious newbee."

    YES - and you are correct to be curious, and never be afraid to question and ask questions!


    "This really hits me. It just changed my perspective at looking the price chart.
    Remind me of the cobra snake catcher using his hands. One of his hand is right in front of the snake, moving back and forth, getting the snake attention, while the other hand surreptitiously moving around aiming at the snake neck."



    As mentioned previously, all the standard "stuff" that is in the public domain is there for a specific reason.

    The change in the way you think is due to a state of mind!


    "Nysestocks, I knew you were on to something that is very original. But really, if you dont share it, we will get stuck in this mode, trying to guess the name of the topic, instead putting energy into exploit it to better ourselves."

    I understand your frustrations, but believe me when I say it is for your own good, whether you know it or not!

    If you want the truth then here it is - I will never tell anyone what I know, as I promised not too when it was told to me, and that is how it works!

    But, it was never said that I could not help others understand what it is they should not be doing by listening to so called "experts".

    Many will read this and say this idiot is playing mind games, or trying to sell something - but what else would they say, as they are frustrated that they have not been able to come up with the so called "holy grail" of trading, as it does indeed exist, but only for a very very small minority!
     
  99. i love this thread.
     
  100. Me to Darkhand - Me to
     
  101. May you burn in hell :D

    Forget it ALL - it is all rubbish.

    Analogies do not work in the markets for many reasons, the main one being that there are a bunch of thick idiots trading the markets each and every day!

    You might have heard the expression that "Knowledge is King". and nothing is closer to the truth.

    If you want some truth then here it is:

    The books by Mark Douglas, Van Tharp, Larry Williams, Jessie Livermore, etc, etc etc, are all a total waste of time and effort in reading!

    Why is that, you may ask!

    Simple, as all of these people wrote from their own perspective - not from the perspective of others.

    If you want to think for others then you are on the wrong planet!

    There is nothing I would like more in the world to share the knowledge that I have, but I can not do so for obvious reasons, as if I did, I would not only ruin it for myself, but for a select few others as well!

    Now do you see the reality of trading.

    Do you think that any person in their right kind would divulge serious profitable information to others for the sake of selling a few books, or worse, for some personal gratification by posting on a public website!!!

    It is a cruel and callous world - those that are not prepared to think and act for themselves are doomed to failure, as has been the case for generations, and will continue to be the case into the future!
     
  102. One remark that a certain elite member will fully understand!

    Do you remember a few weeks ago when it was mentioned that the S&P might bounce off the 800 level for that long awaited 100 + pt rally!!

    I think someone said that this time it IS different :D

    Even some of the big players have got badly caught this time :p


    BTW - why don't you post more often, as it would help others greatly.
     
  103. LOL, I love it when I'm right. :)
     
  104. This is the finest most informative thread I have ever read. Thank you from the bottom of my .....
     
  105. in one post you have stated that there are no experts and at the same time you tell most replies that they are wrong implying that you are a wiseman,(wisemen never imply),jj's deductive reasoning would find this self incriminating,i would agree,you are fooling yourself,the ego is at best a clever fool,you sir ,have proved yourself foolish and human at the same time,part of the problem with being a trader and seemingly self fulfilled by making a larger income than most of the working stiffs out there is that you have found a way to beat lifes pitfalls,this is quite a way's off from the truth,dream on and think you have found the answer,life will remind you as it does all of us,the obvious anwer is that there is no obvious answer and that in knowing this staying humble,,the ever changing horizon,will keep us young and ever searching,your pretending has made it obvious to most,and i hope to you,one of lifes secrets is to never assume you have it figured out,at this point,you have stopped learning and become stale and started descending,so keep your eyes open,look for ways to grow and fight to improve yourself and the world you live in,and remember trading is just a source of income,not a life
     
  106. Reading the comments on these forums is fascinating to me. There are so many unique individual traders each successful in their own way spouting their trading religion (that is what they worship in trading…including yours truly). Halleluiah!

    All traders (whether they admit to it or not) are running a unique trading business. What works for one trader does not fit the plan of another. Yet I continue to see traders get extremely frustrated and angry when they see others present different ideas (which may be a brilliant concept in their style of trading). The condescending trader will go so far as call the other trader an…. Well I will leave that to your imagination.

    Many of you are day traders, that’s great, keep it up. However, some like my self swing and position trade in the daily time frame (it works I’m retired). When it comes to applying a concept that a day trader abhors it may produce excellent results for me. The reverse is also true. So I try to keep and open mind.

    What I enjoy about ET are the new ideas that allow me to stretch my systems to new vistas. I have added many great additions to my new systems because of what I have read here. I have learned about C# which is tough on an old COBOL programmer (old IBM language I coded in).

    But the crux of the problem for ‘newbies’ is to find a method that works and one that they can tolerate through the bumps and grinds that always happen. Yet traders continue to fail every day. This happens because we fail to describe to ourselves what we are trying to accomplish and learn how to make corrections.

    When you finally understand your own trading objectives and methods then you can begin to make additions and subtractions to your plan from other ET’ers that can make you more successful. I believe trading is like the businesses I ran for 37 years. If you fail to look at “lessons learned” you are doomed to repeat the errors.

    Then there’s all of these touted authors. Only YOU know if Jessie Livermore, Van Tharp or Larry Williams is relevant. Are they good or bad? That’s not relevant. What is relevant is do they provide you with what you need to run your trading business. If they don’t toss it out.

    And yes I have my own platitudes.

    Knowledge is not king. It’s what you do with the knowledge that makes you king.

    Then there’s attitude. I love it when I’m wrong and realize it. Then I got a chance to succeed.

    If you can’t change the facts then bend the attitudes.

    Well enough of my religion for now. In the next note I will go through Exodus…Well back I go to looking at my systems and pray they work…
     
  107. Rabbitone,

    As always Sir - My Utmost respect to you:)


    Redneck
     
  108. A very good post in keeping with your nick lotsabullshite :D

    Maybe you are right, and maybe you are wrong!
     
  109. OOps, I forget to answer you, but then again it is easy to see why!
     
  110. You are welcome, and don't mind what the "experts" say, for they know nothing of any real value, honestly!
     
  111. No real logic if you read it thru!

    I am a fool, that is so true, but I am a very happy fool :D

    I was able to get the information that I set out to get, and the reason I got the information, is because, I done the exact opposite of everything you mentioned that I should do!

    So, going on the basis that I don't lie, and I have no alternative motive like most, who is the real fool!
     
  112. nyse,

    if I may suggest, don't waste time on exchange of wits....

    while you have not spilled your beans, I have not problem with general pattern of your thoughts...even if you look around in the world, you see majority of people eating, thinking and doing things mostly wrong (always claiming that they are right)...some of your statements remind me of Sufis
     
  113. You see Rabbitone, people are not to be blamed for what they do and do not know!

    Think about it - they can only deduce from the information that is available to them.

    Applying logic to this situation, it is apparent that for one to make rapid progress one needs to be able to differentiate between what is "normal", and what is "abnormal".

    Which one would you pick - the normal or the abnormal?
     
  114. Have no fear TraderD, wits or twits, it makes no difference to me in the least bit :D

    "There is method in my madness"

    but it is not what most think it to be!

    Any experienced trader (and I am not talking $K's here) knows a good deal about what I speak, but there are but a handful that know the real truth.

    SAD
    IM
     
  115. lots of greek mythology in this thread.:confused: :confused:
     
  116. 1) Most traders do not have a clue about how to take money from other traders on a daily basis.

    2) Volatility is nothing more than wide ranges on a chart - you do not need Mr Boloxinger or any of that rubbish to help you pick the money from the palms of other traders.

    3) You do not need to know the intricate workings of order flow and how options, stocks and futures trades interact.

    4) You do not need to look at Level II to try and see what MM's are doing, for most of the time they don't know what they are doing themselves.

    5) S&P pit futures traders use 10 min engulfments to position and create fungible trades - no, I do not say fungus trades!
     
  117. You must look to the past to see what the future might bring!

    Tyche
     
  118. I am a bit surprised that this thread has not got even one star!
     
  119. Yeah, you're right.

    I'd only give it 1/2 of a star myself ... :)
     
  120. 6) BLASH and SHABL about 90%

    7) BHASH and SLABL about 10%

    8) The only think you need to watch in relation to your trading activities, is your bank account.

    9) Do no confuse Twits with Wits, for they are completely different - the Twit usually knows absolutely nothing and the Wit thinks he/she knows nothing, but unknown to himself/herself, the Wit knows a great deal about everything.

    10) A widely used setup used by S&P pit traders is, and wait for it, as most traders will not have a clue about what it is, it is OTF
     
  121. Which one would I pick, The normal or the abnormal? You pose an excellent question. I will answer with a story. The story tells of a lesson I learned the hard way some 22 years back as a database administrator (DBA). The story goes like this.

    I was in charge of all of the databases for a large steel mill. The databases ran the mill because it was in charge of clocking every worker in or out at every gate. A freak process crashed the databases and it shut down for 16 hours at tremendous cost (because workers had to be clocked in manually).

    The week after the crash I was hauled into a meeting with the companies head DBA. He asked the question “Why didn’t you test for such a problem.” My answer was “It was too freak an occurrence to test for.” For using that answer I was reprimanded.

    Later in private because we were good friends he relented some and told me “I understand how you feel an accident happened to me about 9 years ago like yours. I got my medicine just like you got yours and I deserved it…” That’s when I learned what I’m going to tell you….” And then he said “…it’s the unexpected or abnormal that rules business and our lives. It’s what we are judged on. Forget about testing what can happen and worry about how you will handle the abnormal problems. That going to define you for the rest of your life…”

    So I will always pick abnormal. Because if you try and understand what is abnormal you can then define what is normal.

    That is how I trade. I have spent countless hours in testing systems (5800 tests over 10 years) and trade management (6 procedures) weeding out the abnormal to defined what is normal in trading a daily automated system. I had no choice because there is no definition in any book or paper that describes in detail how to trade swings or positions in automation.

    This is the reason traders fail today. They read a trading book and believe they can use it as a business model. I have yet to see any written business models for any type of trading that will work in any live environment. Most trading today is large sets of rules of thumb which are really no a business plan.

    Many traders who succeed today don’t even understand why they have succeeded. Some are hanging by a thread. What most of them do is piece their business procedures together by trial and error. All it takes is one abnormality and they are broke.

    So I agree with you 100% NyseStocks people are not to be blamed for what they do not know. We are fed like mushrooms. But that does not stop us from trading. That is why I have no sympathy for those who risk their money trading using business methods they do not attempt to review on their own.

    This industry in my opinion is in its infancy. For most types of retail trading we have yet to methods or process that allows us to define and build trading as a business. Every other profession has reams on this subject. But all we get is bits and pieces of flotsam and jetsam to try to define ourselves as trading business entities. Here is a simple example. Try to find a good definition or any definition of trade management from any one?

    And now I have a question for you, if you please. Name one book or author that as suitably defined, using business not trading terminology, what a trading business model should consist of?
     
  122. Wow, there is a lot of pseudo trader-religion BS going on in this thread. People find it useful to get all philosophical about trading, and that's fine -- but don't bring the fucking pyramids into it.

    Trading is work. There is no secret to hard work. Success has nothing to do with Ancient Egyptians, the Illuminati, the Plunge Protection Team, or the latest gimmick trading "system".

    Remember, there are a lot of old market makers out there, but not very many old speculators.

    1) FIND AN EDGE 2) Exploit it before it goes away (it will go away) 3) Look for another.

    It is a boring game and has nothing to do with spirituality or pyramids. It will fluctuate.
     
  123. Very interesting story Rabbitone!

    In relation to trade management, it will vary depending on timeframe used.

    There is a trader on another site that uses what I think is a sort of automated momentum system, and the logic behind this is very acceptable.

    When the prices stop moving you automatically adjust positions to lock in profits - when they start moving again you adjust positions depending on the direction and magnitude of the move.

    I am not sure how it works in fast markets, but at certain times it may be spot on?

    So, the question!

    "Name one book or author that as suitably defined, using business not trading terminology, what a trading business model should consist of?"

    [​IMG]

    "If Mrs. Boyd granted her children unusual freedoms within her house, she was more than diligent in imparting rules for outside the house. She inculcated her children with a protective mechanism they remembered all their lives. Over and over again she said if people knew too much about the Boyd family they would use the knowledge in a critical manner. Never tell people what you don't want repeated, she preached. People will seek out your weaknesses and faults, so tell them only of your strong points. No family matters must ever be mentioned beyond the front door. This resulted in the Boyd children being extraordinarily reticent about all but the most inconsequential of family matters, even when they reached old age."
     
  124. All together on 3……

    1…… 2……. 3……. UUmmmmmmm…. UUmmmmmmm your getting sleepy your eyelids are getting heavy…. You see the price….. it’s calling you from the great pumpkin patch – wait oh damn I meant pyramid……

    Buuuuuy me…Buuuuuy me - NOWWWWWW


    Sorry Fib Gridsman I couldn’t resist – I’m just a dumb ole Redneck after all:)





    NYSESTOCKS

    I wonder if whales leave tracks – You ever wonder if whales leave tracks Sir

    The Ocean is a mighty Big place

    Redneck
     
  125. History is not a religion!

    It is only by knowing about, and understanding great men, that one can ever hope to come anyway near such people.

    Ignorance is of no use to anyone!

    If you think History is rubbish then you will only see rubbish in History!

    If you think History is educational, then you will learn a lot from Historical figures!

    "There is a difference between knowing the path, and walking the path"
     
  126. Let me think about this one a bit!

    A whale is a big mammal!

    A whale makes one big splash when it is enjoying itself!

    A whale can be clearly heard if the frequency is right!

    A whale can be easily seen when it surfaces for air!

    So RT, does a whale leave tracks, well, not the type of tracks that one would normally associate with the word, but yes, as the largest mammal in the sea, a whale definitely makes an impression whenever it surfaces, but for some with the right equipment, the cameras can be ready and waiting to get that perfect photo when it blows out its top hole :D
     
  127. OODA

    “There is nothing so practical as a good theory,” psychologist Kurt Lewin pointed out, and there are,
    indeed, many practical implications of Boyd’s work, to cultivate decision making [within short periods
    of market activity]. Traders must train like fighter pilots. They must learn to think and react rapidly in
    the face of market maneuvers. The market adversary is attempting to enter their mind-time-space;
    only superior information and processing of that information can produce consistent, positive results"
     
  128. Traders on many of these forums continue to use smoke and mirrors to talk about how they manage their trading as a business (I am not singling out any one). This happens because many traders do not think or write in business terms and that is why their trading businesses fail. For example I can use the terms inventory management, accounts receivables, accounts payable and cash flow management and get a better response from traders than using risk management and position sizing.

    Examine the following question that might be asked of a trader. “When you did your business (trading) planning why didn’t you have controls in your inventory management (risk control) to prevent inventory (trading losses) from choking the businesses cash flow (account losses)?”

    When I ask new traders to respond to this question the answer in trading jargon comes back as “I don’t know. The losses kind built up. Next thing I knew the money was gone…” But if were sitting down with these same traders (many who have advanced college degrees) and asked them to use business terminology – the tables turn and I would hear….”When I put my business (trading) plan in place I failed to have adequate controls to manage my cash flows (draw downs). It was my fault as a business manager. From my preliminary business study (testing the strategy) I had plenty of warning that a cash crunch could jeopardize my business. What I should have done is run extensive field tests (paper traded) of my strategy on several candidates (stocks) to see how if it confirmed my suspicions that the cash flows (draw downs) were going to be impaired. Another factor I noted during testing that also contributed to poor cash flow was an inadequate level of funding in the business (account) to begin with. When I examined my business records (log) this was apparent.”

    What I refer to as trading religion are pieces of trading terminology I am forced to use in forums like trade management because we have no unified way to discuss trading as business that resonates with most traders. The business term “cash flow” has more impact on trader’s ears than using nebulous terms like “risk management”. Many traders on these forums have become “gun fighters” using “bullets” from popular authors to try to force their form of business mangement on other traders.

    Trade management is not about controlling the strategies internal algorithms. It is the process the trader uses to control the trade from design through production in your trading business. Trade management is not time frame, trading style or experience dependent. It is the guts of the trading business. It is how a trader designs the set up or strategy to produce results. It is how the traders built a business case in testing. It is how the trader manages the trades risk in live trading. It is how the trader designs performance and metric business reviews of a trade to manage the expectancy of the trade so adequate cash flow is produced. It is how the trader plans out how to handle the abnormalities or deviations from the strategy design in live trading so the accounts cash stays reasonably in tact.

    What I look for from the trade management forum is solid and practical methods to control my trades in business terminology and give beginning traders sound advice on managing their businesses. Until we can discuss trading using a common business language we will still have 95% of traders fail.
     
  129. AMEN!!!!!

    Thankyou, Reverend Rabbitone

    And now can we turn to our hyme book Page1....."Let it Be"

    A great contribution to this thread,Rabbit.

    As for the OP ...an intellectual snob who has not ever placed a trade on any stock or commodity exchange.

    The "obvious that is not so obvious" is that every trade always starts with a negative liability....cost....commission/fees call it what you want...

    Therefore, to put it in a simple context for the OP so that he may come down off his high horse, a trader/investor is always behind the 8 ball until the trader has achieved sufficient profit.

    Deny this premis , OP and you need a hot poker up your arse to wake up......
     
  130. Whoa, deep.
     
  131. Hmm, it is very interesting how people come to conclusions!

    Not to repeat myself over and over, but to try and give some clarity to those who wish to learn something about how to take money from other traders, I will spell out a few key things that new traders do, and do not have to know!

    1) Trading is not like any other business - so forget about all the rubbish!

    2) A trader does need to know one, 1, key thing in order to be able to take money from other traders!

    3) Idiots will always back up other idiots who think they have it cracked, but the reality is that they are still idiots and will never get anywhere near the real "holy grail" of trading, which does exist for the very small minority.

    4) Traders should not expect to have everything spelled out for them in black and white - for anyone who carries on these activities are doing the trader an injustice in denying the trader the ability to think for him/herself!

    5) I might drop a few more hints, but by the looks of it, no one is doing any thinking at all!

    6) This one should be easy for so called "experienced" traders to come up with the answer - trading results can be greatly improved by using MTFA, no matter what you are trading!

    7) Just because someone writes something does not mean that they are any way right - look for the unusual, that which others do not write, and try and see some logic and common sense in it! This is the best indication of who knows what - do not be fooled by silly and ridiculous stories about rubbish that do nothing but waste your time and energy. If you had access to the information I had you could become a very profitable trader in about 1 month, but as that will never happen for obvious reasons that I mentioned, then the next best thing you can do is try and work some of it out so that you will be at least leaps ahead of the mainstream trading "experts"
     
  132. Great post, Rabbitone. Very succinct. The concept of 'inventory turnover' has been an important lesson in my own trading.
     
  133. OK, enough rubbish and sidetracking in this thread!

    If anyone wants’ to get anywhere near the answer, then some questions must be asked!

    No more time wasting, so if you have a specific question that you think I might be able to answer for you, then please put it forth.

    Do not be afraid to ask questions, ever!

    Remember that the majority of traders are clueless about what is required to take money from other traders on a daily basis, so if you want to continue and waste your time with such people, then that is your own choice.

    You now have been given a chance to learn something of value, but you must of course ask the right questions - if you ask a silly question then you can expect a silly answer!
     
  134. What do MTFA and OTF stand for?
     
  135. As mentioned, please observe the topic in future!

    A new thread can be started by a few clicks of a mouse.

    Time wasting is no more - you either contribute to the topic or you post elsewhere - this thread is not for so called "experts" to try and show what they do and do not know!

    The purpose of this thread, in case anyone has not understood it as of yet, is to explain to some traders that most of what is out there is pure and utter rubbish, and that there are but a few key things that a trader needs in order to succeed.

    I do not intentionally set out to show people up, but if people continue to post rubbish, then shown up they will be, as it must be done as it is just the right thing to do!
     
  136. If you really want to give clarity, then stop with all of the bullshit and tell us what you perceive to be obvious. Cuz I don't think you know. I think you're trolling for ideas, otherwise you wouldn't have started a thread which you are not willing to conclude, and in which you are not willing to give any solutions.

    Stop leading these poor people on, and let them know you're not any more knowledgeable than any of us when it comes to trading psychology.
     
  137. Now, just watch and see what can be done and understood if people just do as they are asked to do, in order to help themselves!

    I will go as far as I can go - but I will not ever disclose the real "holy grail" of trading, for obvious reasons.

    If you take in what I will write, and understand it, you will be far ahead of most traders out there.

    The first thing, before all else, that you must fully understand without any doubt what so ever, is that trading is gambling.

    If you fail to really understand what this means, you might as well stop now and go off and read what the "experts" post!

    MTFA = Multiple Time Frame Analysis

    OTF = One Time Framing
     
  138. Supposing below is correct, perhaps you can elaborate more on relationships between timeframes.

    Multi Time Frame Analisys
    One Time Frame {control}
     
  139. Nasrudin was on his hands and knees searching for his key in a well-lit area in the centre of the street. Some of his neighbors came to see why Nasrudin was on his hands and knees.“What are you looking for, Nasrudin?” enquired one of his neighbors.“My door key,” Nasrudin replied.The helpful neighbors dropped to their hands and knees and joined Nasrudin in his search for the lost key.After a long unsuccessful search, one of the neighbors asked: “We’ve looked everywhere. Are you sure you dropped it here?”Nasrudin answers: “Of course I didn’t drop it here, I dropped it outside my door.”“Then, why are you looking for it here!”“Because there is more light here!” he responded.
     
  140. As mentioned, a few clicks of a mouse!

    Let those who want to ask, ask, and they can then judge for themselves who knows what!

    As for the so called "experts", I really don't care what ye do, as ye really know nothing about how the markets really work, and all you do is try and associate trading with something from by-gone days!

    But wait, ye are all going to save the poor newbies from the idiots who know nothing - how ironic!
     
  141. Here is a deal for you TD - you elaborate and I will correct you if you get it wrong!

    Do not think that candy is going to be thrown to all the shouting children, just because they shout!

    I am fully aware of genuine questions and those that have alternative motives - been at this game too long now, and you fledglings can be read like a book :D
     
  142. As a former YZ125, and three wheeler rider (Hobby , not racer or anything) That is awesome! It took me a LONG TIME to wheelie my 185 for a 1/4 mile.

    Good times.

    Good times.
     
  143. This is a perfect example. You are spewing quotes and your own hyperbole without any substance.

    Do you do this in real life as well as trading? If so, then I doubt you make any money, or that you even trade.

    Please, oh please, give us the obvious answer.

    BTW, if you do indeed make money in the market, please post your blotter on the P/L thread for one week. It's been painful for me lately, can't be anymore painful for you.
     
  144. - define trend
    - choose big time frame
    - find trend
    - look for counter trend on smaller timeframe
    - fade counter trend when it fails definition of "trend"...the big trend should still be valid per definition

    but this is pretty common knowledge

    perhaps larger matrix of relationships can be build, giving a better picture of which timeframes are in control

    the exits is where is gets more complicated
     
  145. What time frame are you using? 30 min?
     
  146. Now THAT might be a thread killer.

    Sorry dude.
     
  147. Substance!

    You are a bigger idiot than your posts suggest!

    Read what I have posted again, or are you one of the so called "experts" that knows everything before they read!

    As for posting any details of my trading activities, that will never happen, as anyone who posts any of their personal details on a public website would want to have their head examined!

    So, again, topic or tiptoe :D
     
  148. The first rule of waves, especially in the open ocean, is that there are no rules. Waves take their time to develop; they don't spontaneously erupt from the ocean. In reality, alternating weather patterns, varying water depths, opposing currents, fetch obstruction and a multitude of other factors may change the way waves in a particular area react.

    However, as a wave comes closer to shore it begins to break as its base can no longer support its top. Predicably, it collapses when the slope, or steepness ratio, is too extended.

    To experience the greatest impact of a breaking wave, one must postion themselves in the trough where the water is most shallow due to the greater volume having been temporarily pulled into the crest.
    :cool:
     
  149. Yes, all textbook stuff which is absolutely of no real value!

    The exit is not the most important thing when trading, as most traders will try and tell you, but the entry is very important!

    I might have written this somewhere before!

    BLASH and SHABL about 90%

    BHABH and SLABL about 10%

    Do you know what this means?

    As for timeframes, you must decide what is the best timeframe that offers the best chance of winning, and then you trade that timeframe - surely this simple statement is self explanatory!

    Lets say you are fulltime trading - and the markets have just opened, with the prices moving up and down like a yo yo. How do you know which is the best timeframe to trade, as the first few minutes might be MOO orders, or it might be some big institution putting on a multi million dollar trade.

    Oh wait, yes, I forgot, I can use Level II and T&S to see what the MM's are doing, what a joke, really :D

    Or, maybe the $PREM is indicating that program trading is now kicking in and the spurt should last a few minutes :D

    Or, maybe the fact that the market pauses every 10 min to just let everyone know what way it is going - another gem :D

    And last, but not least, maybe no one knows what the hell they are doing, and all that you are seeing is a bunch of idiots placing bets on a big game that has no rules - even though they think it has!!
     
  150. I'm sorry, did you just call me an idiot because I contributed to your thread? And are you saying that no one would ever share their P/L with ET?

    You sir, Have just made yourself one of the biggest morons in ET's history.

    Thank you for your input.

    Feel free to contribute here


    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=113193
     
  151. 1. What can I ask to guide myself to the answer?

    2. If I knew what the obvious was could I code it (given that I have the skills to code any quantifiable)?

    3. Your BLASH statements mean that you "fade" most of the time and take BO trades a small % of the time correct?
     
  152. This is one of the big misconceptions of trading!

    You do not position yourself anywhere where you might drown!

    Always keep one foot on dry land, just in case you might slip into the deep end that you could not see, unless you are a fish of course :D
     
  153. my mentor ivanovich taught me that trading is super easy and fast and that making mony is only if you buy and goes up

    and you sell and goes down, super fast and easy
     
  154. 1. Only you can decide what you think and do!

    2. No - no computer will ever replace the intricate workings of the human brain!

    3. Buy Low And Sell High means exactly that - as do the other abbreviations. If you want to try and fade the market you are then putting yourself in a very risky position - which can be a very sad thing to do at the best of times! Fading might seem Ok if you trade a few hundred shares, but when you trade thousands of shares you can get a big surprise that will quickly show you the value of understanding what gambling is all about!
     
  155. Evidently not. I suck. Sorry.

    But I believe in the concept that you could publish the most profitable system ever, in the Wall street Journal, and most people would read it, but still fuck it up somehow.

    Therefore, I don't necessarily challenge you to post stuff every day.

    Just post a couple days, dude.

    If this is unacceptable, well, I understand.
     
  156. His real name is Ivan Rich!
     
  157. Firstly, I am not a dude!

    Secondly, I do not like repeating myself!

    Thirdly, when I say something I mean it, and I never let others change my mind for me!

    Lastly, you can post per topic if you like, if not you are free to go and hang as many wallpapers as you like, but not in this room please!
     
  158. OK, time to do some work.

    I will leave you with a few ponderings!

    A. When a stock price is moving up you buy it.

    B. When a stock price is moving down you sell it.

    C. When a stock price is not moving you do not hold a position in it.


    Question:

    What do you do when a stock price is moving up and down?
     
  159. when don't they move up and down?! hehe
     
  160. I doubt if you could learn anything of value - as usual the nick is usually self explanatory!

    It is amazing how the human mind works - idiots will even pronounce to the world that they are idiots :D
     
  161. A very astute observation DH, but it is not an answer to the question!
     
  162. Then the obvious is to buy low and sell high, but that is hindsight information.
     
  163. Just in case some people need to be reminded - post off topic and you will be asked to observe the site rules.

    This is a very professional site, and I am sure that its owners have a keen interest in members using the site to educate themselves as best they can in relation to trading!

    If idiots keep popping up their heads and disrupting worthwhile conversations, then they might need to be removed and placed where they rightly belong!
     
  164. NO - you must BLASH and SHABL to make money, but the obvious is what enables you to do this with very low risk, and with a potential profit many times the initial amount risked!

    This is the essence of professional gambling - aka, trading!


    BTW, not even Waren Buffet is aware of the obvious, but that should be obvious to everyone by now!
     
  165. .... % of what? time? current position?
     
  166. % of the time
     
  167. Reading this thread is almost as much fun as talking to my Gann-trader friend.

    BLASH = buy low and sell high

    SHABL = sell high and buy low.
     
  168. I will postulate 'Market Direction' = "The Obvious".
    As to "why" it is not so obvious is due to Trend Relativity.
    (MTFA) The current environment can just as accurately be
    described as "down" or "up".
    This is the phenomenon which engenders opportunity as
    well as disaster. I can display a monthly chart with no more
    difficulty than a 5s chart. When the "Not So Obvious" *first
    begins* to become "The Obvious" *within its context*, my
    ODDS of being able to *exploit* "The Obvious" go way up.
    I may then decide whether BLASH/SHABL or BHASH/SLABL
    is the appropriate strategy and if my threshold of pain
    will permit me to allow for the necessary margin for error.
    (e.g. SKF lately, whew)
    This only works (for me) on those days when I am mentally,
    emotionally and physically prepared to DO what needs to
    be done. (my challenge) - When I AM in sinc, I cruise.
     
  169. There are couple options

    1.) go to the next larger time frames until you dont see the ups and downs.
    This is only meaningful if the range is small enough. If it is big enough, then it indicates something else

    2.) look for the "abnormality" of the up/down pattern.

    3.) as you indicated in 'C'

    But in trading, time is of essence, you enter while the "thing" is happening, not after, not before.

    Question for you nysestocks

    a.) how do one know if the move is real or fake?

    b.) what technique can one utilize to enter fast market-, because, most of the time the strong up/down moves will have many large price spreads one stack on top of the other.

    Thanks and regards
     
  170. Sorry but I don’t know what you mean. I tried for several hours to define a trading business plan from these statements. After many attempts I gave up. Then I had a great idea. I would talk to some one younger than me who better understood this type of business language. So I emailed my savvy nephew who is in high school. Here was his reply.

    Yes, all textbook stuff which is absolutely of no real value!
    He relied "every dude in his school says, Yah Man!”

    The exit is not the most important thing when trading, as most traders will try and tell you, but the entry is very important!
    He replied “Wow, trading has the same principle as they teach in sex ed class!”

    BLASH and SHABL about 90%

    BHABH and SLABL about 10%

    He replied “I’m kind puzzled by these. The only one I know is the SHABL." He said he wants to kiss up to his hot English teacher and he would "use SHABL of Suck Hot A-- with Big Lips.” Sorry I couldn’t write what he actually said.

    But the good news is if you teach the course at NYU he said he will sign up. Then we can all figure out what you wrote.
     
  171. Then may be it is time for some of us who are “Idiots” to leave ET and find another forum where we have the freedom to discuss our trading ideas. If ET cannot handle dissent in its forums I doubt it will survive another year. This is the price of freedom; to give all a chance to have their say even if it means a small percentage of the population abuse the privilege. And it remains for those who are level headed to overlook these few responses so we all can gain from the majority of meaningful discussions. And most important each day I still remember my buddy’s in Vietnam who had their heads blown off so I can sit here and write. They paid the ultimate price for me and I take my freedom very seriously…
     
  172. I simply called you out.

    How is that off topic?

    I truly think that what may be obvious to you may be obvious to others as well, but not necessarily any kind of psychological epiphany.
     
  173. Non-Sequitur.
    Proves you can't think.
    (Off topic, sorry.)
     
  174. You are right sir. About both of my previous notes. In the heat of the moment I did not use my head. I apologize and have learned another of life’s lessons. ...
     
  175. :)
     
  176. Brilliant post. Thank you, sir.
     
  177. Hi nysestocks,

    for BLASH, what constitutes LOW?

    As a retail day trader, one seldomly be able to buy at the bottom of the day. So LOW will be a price based on the reference of a previously occurred price.
    Or are you talking about the pivot of a pullback? or high of the previous bar ?
    (if one waits for the price to be above certain price reference, such as high of the previous bar, it is really BHASH)
    Or are you implying that there is another way to identify the LOW?

    Thanks and regards
     
  178. Yeah, I think it's a great post too.

    Maybe RabbitOne should start his own thread. :)
     
  179. Now *that* I could get into. RabbitOne, you into it or you playing too much golf??
     
  180. I thank all of you for your kind words. Tommorrow will be the start of the thread.
     
  181. That's outstanding, Rabbitone. Thank you.
     
  182. @nysestocks

    Are you still getting what you want out of the market? It certainly appears so...
    There are really only 2 things one needs to know about trading the markets, ...and they come from unusual places ...and are not so obvious.

    "All warfare is based on deception."
    ----Sun Tzu, The Art of War

    "There are two kinds of people in the world my friend, ...those with loaded guns, ....and those who dig."
    -----Clint Eastwood

    From these two pearls of wisdom all else can be derived.

    Keep on digging nysestocks!
     
  183. Ha! I've learned a little and laughed a lot reading this thread. Yes, I guess I'm a fish that spends much of my time swimming in the deep end, but always hedged with a life preserver.

    I do agree with you that trading reminds me of gambling, specifically ‘Blackjack’. Counting cards for instance is primarily about money management. Depending on the count, I may go 8x my minimum or take insurance, or hit a 14 etc. But most importantly, I don’t gamble with money I cannot afford to lose. That profoundly impacts my decision making.

    I understand that we are all in this for the money. But it is THE FEAR OF LOOSING MONEY that so often interferes with our strategies and execution thereof. As was stated earlier in this thread, almost all trades will make you money if you have patience. Doubling down at a strategic point can help you make it back faster just as it can with Blackjack … but it will take an adjustment in the timeframe. Thus time vs. cost becomes a determining factor. Is there a better place for me to put my money during a given time frame, or do I truly believe this trade will eventually payoff within an acceptable time frame???

    Eventually, unless you’re Short at a bottom, the market will come to you … like the ocean’s breaking wave. And your patience and faith will be rewarded!

    And by the way, what did you mean by “OPPORTUNITY COST”?:cool:
     
  184. TH, the only time you need to worry about your emotions is when you have made good money!

    Your decision to place a trade should be the same each and every time you trade - the amount you place on each trade will depend on several things, including how much money you have available to you at the time of placement!
     
  185. Buy Low does not mean Buying The Low point of a swing!

    If I wanted to imply that then I would have said BSLASH

    Another big misconception held by the majority of traders!
     
  186. Can't disagree with any of that, but "good money" is very vague. It varies per person when it comes to one particular trade, as well as a years worth of trades.

    People will sabotage themselves over multiple timeframes.

    (Trying to be civil, here)
     
  187. If you are stupid enough to stay in a losing trade, then you will get exactly what you deserve!
     
  188. Hmmm, can't really disagree with that either. The language was kind of harsh, but then again, so is risk management..
     
  189. Good money would be any profits over $100K.

    Most traders who make this type of money get some silly idea that they know what they are doing, and you can guess what happens next!

    People will sabotage themselves all of the time if they are unable to place a trade in exactly the same manner, for each and every trade!
     
  190. OK, you and I are starting to get onto the same page when it comes to some things. Your statement above is why I started to become extremely systematic in my trading. I will be the first to admit I absolutely suck as a discretionary trader.

    Are systems and automation, or just simply being extremely disciplined, part of your "obvious" theory?

    I'm not trying to be an ass, like I may or may not have been last night.

    Actually curious.
     
  191. A load of mumbo jumbo.

    I am getting a bit fed up having to explain the basics of gambling to everyone, and for some silly reason, everyone still seems to think that trading is like "other" normal things in life!

    It is the exact opposite - and that is the reason why nearly everyone who tries to make money trading fail!

    If you want to continue to look for silly analogies and stories about oceans and waves, college kids who wouldn't even know themselves if they looked in a mirror, expectancy, Level II and T&S, prop trading services and training, and all the other pits of endless rubbish that are posted on internet sites each and every second, then fine, but at least know that when you end up the same as everyone else, it is entirely your own fault for not spending the time to sit and seriously think about what it is you are trying to do!

    I am really amazed at how many people can not even understand the very basics that are required to take money from other traders!

    Our education system has done a far better job than I had initially thought!
     
  192. I never hold a grudge against letters on a screen:D

    While I can see and understand how some programs (whether it be C, API or even Excel) can execute trades for profit, a computer at the end of the day is just a big dumb box!

    Garbage IN = Garbage OUT

    So, to answer your question, I am not sure if the "obvious" can be automated, as it has never been tried, but when there is no need to automate it, why even think of doing it!!

    Say it does work after many many hours of programming, and then some young wiz kid hacker gets in and downloads the programme, and before you know it the whole world has it!

    Before long, the "obvious" will appear on internet sites and no doubt in many trading books as well, as soon as the real "experts" get their hands on it :D

    Remember Mrs Boyd!
     
  193. I don't stay in 'stupid' trades. I counter-trend swings long and short for 'winning' trades. And yes, I 'deserve' my million dollar bank and the 20k - 40k I make a month!

    Love this market!

    :p
     
  194. Well, I make money just about every day, so I must know something about "taking money" from others.

    But I have to say your inclusion of "expectancy" in your last comment got me thinking, as expectancy is an assumption about the future based on the recent past. And since the markets are so dynamic in their behavior, we need to be much more dynamic in our thinking to adapt.

    Am I getting warm?
     
  195. Randomness and perception
    "We do not come into this world with an innate sense of how the random part of
    our world works. We talk about probabilities casually and think we understand.
    When the weatherman forecasts 60% chance of rain today we do not
    have a precise definition of what that means. Does it mean a 60% chance that it
    will rain here at my office, or 60% chance of rain somewhere in the city? Does it
    mean a 60% chance every part of the city will get at least a drop of rain, or that
    each point in the city will get rain 60% of the time? Some of these possible
    meanings may be absurd but the point is that we deal with statements like
    these with only an intuitive sense of what they mean.
    We mostly have unreliable notions and perhaps some wrong conclusions when it
    comes to randomness in our lives. For instance, few of us know that if a group
    of 25 randomly selected people are asked their birthday that the chance of at
    least two of them having a birthday on the same day of the year is better than
    50%. I met a man who knew all the odds of drawing various hands in poker.
    When I told him this little known fact he was in disbelief and gave me 2 to 1
    odds on a bet. The 14th person he queried for a birth date matched one of the
    previous ones. He declined to repeat the bet.
    A trader needs tools for finding what kind of results work now and are likely
    work in the future. He would like to know what is more important, the probability
    of success on a trade, or the average profit to risk ratio. He would like to
    know what would happen if losers were exited early."
     
  196. I will let you in on a little secret jn.

    The ability of a trader to make "money" in the markets is very objective and subjective!

    I make small money a lot of the time, and other traders probably make more money on one of their trades than I make on some trades, but the magical symbol is the X :D

    There is a very old saying that should be observed for big profits, and that is,

    100 pennies make a Pound
     
  197. "For instance, few of us know that if a group
    of 25 randomly selected people are asked their birthday that the chance of at
    least two of them having a birthday on the same day of the year is better than
    50%."

    I'm starting to like this thread.
     
  198. OK, along those lines, I read a story of a guy who was on an airplane with someone he knew to be a successful trader. He asked the guy what it was that made him so successful. The trader responded "what is the ratio of the most contracts you use per trade vs the least." The guy responded "I don't know, maybe 4 to 1". The trader responded, " Make it 20 to 1".

    Seems to be a function of confidence. Not necessarily expectancy or probabilities. Hmm...
     
  199. :D

    I did not say that all books are stupid - but the few that are of any real value are very hard to find :eek:

    The Gamblers Fallacy
    "There are beliefs held by some traders that are likely wrong. Some say that after
    a string of losing trades success on the next trade is more likely, so position size on the next trade should be increased. According to Larry Williams: “After you have had 3 or 4 losing trades in a row, the probability of the next trade being
    not only a winner but a substantial winner is way in your favor.” This may
    or may not be true in trading, but for most random events like flipping coins, it is definitely not true."
     
  200. And what gives you confidence :D
     
  201. Here are Phantom's Two Rules of Trading for Trade/Risk/Money management.



    Rule 1 - In a losing game such as trading, we shall start against the majority and assume we are wrong until proven correct! (We do not assume we are correct until proven wrong.) Positions established must be reduced and removed until or unless the market proves the position correct! (We allow the market to verify correct positions.)

    Quote:
    Trading is not a favorable game in most circumstances, and that is what we must use as our assumption in trading. The big mistake made by traders is thinking and expecting trading to be a favorable game.

    You have execution costs or slippage when getting in and out of a position as well as commissions as a cost factor to be subtracted from your winnings or added to your losses. The market spends much time in an unpredictable mode. Trends both short- and long-term do exist but not 100% of the time.

    The correct way to control positions is to only hold them once they prove to be correct. Let the market tell you your position is proven correct, but never let the market tell you that your position is wrong. You, as a good trader, must always be in command of knowing and telling yourself when your position is bad.

    The market will tell you when your position is a good one to hold. Most traders do the opposite of what is correct by removing positions only when proven wrong. Think about that. Your exposure and risk is much higher if you let the market prove you wrong instead of your actions removing positions systematically unless or until the market proves your position correct.

    When you remove the position because the market proved you wrong, it is always a higher loss, and with stops it also is usually with higher slippage. This is not the same as removing the position because the market proved you wrong. By making the market prove you correct in order to hold a position is acknowledging that trading is a losers' game and not a winners' game. If you only remove your position because the market proves you wrong, you are acknowledging that trading is a winners' game.

    You never want to be in a position that is never proven correct. If you only get out when the market proves you wrong, it is possible to have higher risk due to the longer time period required to prove your position wrong. We will further clarify these thoughts for you in the book.


    Rule 2 - Press your winners correctly without exception.

    Quote:
    Sounds pretty elementary but correctly is the key. What you hear quoted most of the time is "cut your losses." Cutting you losses is only one side of the coin. Without Rule 2, you will find that trading still isn't even a 50/50 game. Without a correct method to press your correct positions, you will never recover much beyond your losses. You need rule two to ensure you have a larger position when you are correct. You always want a larger position when you get a great move or trending market than when your position isn't correct.

    There certainly will be debate on how you know when to add to a correct position and on how a market can turn a correct position into a wrong position. We will cover those debates later. First, let us get the rules and reasons established. By knowing what is expected in Rules 1 and 2, we can prove the theorem based on good assumptions and experience.

    Rule 2 does not mean just because you have a position in your favor that you must now add to that position. "Correctly" in Rule 2 means you must have a qualified plan of adding to your position once a trend has established itself. The proper criteria for adding positions depends on your time frame of expectations in your trade plan.

    You might be a day-trader just trading back and forth, a short-term trader, weekly trader, monthly trader or trend trader only . The add criteria will be different for each trade plan. The important point of Rule 2 is to point out the rule is established so you can make the most gain with the least drawdown expectations. You must also use Rule 1 properly.

    Rule 2 is important for it keeps you in a good position as well as impresses upon your own thinking about having a correct position initially. Most traders are conditioned to want to take a profit to prove to themselves that they are right. Being right does not, in itself, make the most amount of profit.

    Most traders also want to get out before the market turns and takes away any profit they may have. Ordinarily, they will let losses get larger but only let gain get started before getting out. This is just simple human nature when having a market position. Human nature in trading is not often proper trading technique.

    Always a good reason for adding to a winner is because traders usually tend to doubt the position unless they reinforce the correctness of that position. Adding to the position correctly best does this.

    The other good reason is that you must be larger when correct on a position than when your position is wrong.

    Correctly adding to a proven position must be done so that a pyramid isn't established that will hurt the trader in a minor reversal. Each add onto an original position should be done in smaller and smaller steps. As an example, if you put six contracts on as your initial position, you should use four contracts for your first add and two contracts for your next add. This gives you twice the original position when all three positions are in place. This is a 3:2:1 ratio in establishing three levels of positioning.

    At all times during the trade it is important that Rule 1 be in your plan. This includes when you are adding to your positions to protect your trade from any major reversals, which often happen.

    Your plan for adding positions could be as simple as using each buy signal for longs and each sell signals for shorts. It could be on 45-degree retracements or support lines.

    Without exception the rule indicates it is not an arbitrary decision on the trader's part whether to add. Keep in mind this does not exclude the correct method of adding in respect to variables of different trading plans. What is a correct way of adding in one trade plan may not be in another.

    Reviewing Rule 2, it states only that you must add to correct (proven) positions and that it must be done correctly. The rule does not tell you how to add, as this is your requirement in the trade plan you develop. The rule makes no exception on adding to correct positions. The intent of Rule 2 is twofold: Reinforce your correct position both mentally in your thinking and your execution and increasing the size of your position.

    Find your "edge" and use these two rules, you will be on your way to take millions from other traders!
     
  202. Well, in context of that example, it would have to be a setup I rarely see, which I am willing to bet big money on, because I've seen it work so many times before.

    But that goes against our unstated agreement that stated probabilities are not always applicable.

    Or does it?

    I have to admit, you have me thinking in ways I'm not used to.

    This is fun.
     
  203. Oops - I was afraid of that:(

    Ok, here we go again!

    I have read POP, and if you want my honest opinion, it has some basic truths but a lot of it is just a story!

    There are no real specifics given to help anyone understand what it is they need to know in order to take money from other traders!

    I threw it in the rubbish bin after printing it off and underling the good points!

    BTW, I only posted the details as they are relative and factual - not stories!
     
  204. Always remember what Morpheus said,

    "There is a big difference between knowing the Path, and walking the Path"

    What you think you see is not what you see!

    If a new trader wants to learn how to make money trading, he/she must realize that no one in their right mind is going to publish any information that will make money!

    Why are new traders so blind!

    If you knew how to make good money each and every day, would you tell someone else if you knew that by doing so, you will run the risk of not been able to make any more money!

    If I substituted sweets for money, and asked a child a similar question, I know the answer that child would give!
     
  205. You state the word "proof" quite often in your post. Proof is in the eye of the beholder, and therefore your method depends entirely on the user.

    I agree with everything you say, but I get the feeling that the hard rules kind of thinking goes against the grain of this thread.

    Correct me if I'm wrong, NYSE.
     
  206. The story helps you to understand the rules and make your “Behavior Modification” to be successful.

    and as POP says, "Behavior Modification" is the key!

    No need to deny it, these rules are golden and they are all you need for trade management if you can change your LOSER’s behavior” under live bullets.
     
  207. Initial thought would be to fade it (range bound??)
     
  208. :D :D :D

    It is very funny - the idiot Jim Cramer is speaking on the box, and I am listening to the fools ringing in and saying how good he is:D

    He is no better than Madoff - with his ridicilious horn blowing and monkey antics.

    Behaviour modification - please send POP to Cramer, his e-mail is plastered all over the place:D

    Look - trading is as simple or as hard as you want to make it.

    Forget about all the "experts" - as there are none.

    If you really want to make money, then accept the fact that trading is gambling, and if you can accomplish that one simple goal, then you will stop reading all the rubbish that sends you up the wrong path!

    If you don't even know the right Path, how can you ever walk it!
     
  209. Yes, Fade it but you have to use Rule #1 to protect yourself, because you are never sure that the price will keep moving up and down.

    Rule 1 - In a losing game such as trading, we shall start against the majority and assume we are wrong until proven correct! (We do not assume we are correct until proven wrong.) Positions established must be reduced and removed until or unless the market proves the position correct! (We allow the market to verify correct positions.)

    But the big money are those trades when you catch A and B, and do it with BIGGER SIZE. Hence Rule #2.

    Rule 2 - Press your winners correctly without exception
     
  210. I'm assuming NYSESTOCKS meant range bound

    But I've also learned never to assume with NYSESTOCKS:)
     
  211. That is how you gamble, NYSESTOCKS
     
  212. Again, this entirely depends on method. You would not want to implement this in certain mean reversion strategies.
     
  213. A says Buy when moving up.

    B says Sell when moving down.

    C says Dump when not moving.

    So - if a stock is moving Up and Down, does that not mean that you Buy it and you Sell it.

    If you exit a long trade, then that means your current conclusions are that the move up is over, but, does that mean that the stock will now go down.

    If so, then you should buy, but what if it stops moving, as that means you should dump.

    Hmm, it is no wonder so many traders are jumping in and out of the markets like ping pong balls:D

    Maybe they are unaware that it is a gamble, and if they are to gamble, then they need to have some sort of way of putting the odds in their favor, but as we know the usual stuff is of no real value, else it would not be made available to the public, then what are we supposed to do?

    We are now getting close to the fork in the road!

    Remember what Morpheus said, and also what I said about the "Path"!
     
  214. Obviously, most losers do not see these obvious ways to gamble correctly! and

    Most of them do not even think trading is gambling!
     
  215. We are talking about Day Trading with high leverage. Mean Reversion will never make you big money and it is accident waiting to happen if you use high leverage!
     
  216. Bullshite!

    Go off and bring me back the data of the last 200 trades from the top 10 journal traders on ET, and I will show you how good the POP story really is:D

    This is more of the same old rubbish - and please stop posting rules, as there are no rules that can be applied to random events!

    You can, however, look for signs of stupid and idiotic behaviour, but that is not a rule, it is an observation that should tell you that now the idiots are starting at it again, and so this is now my chance to take some big money from them, to add to my little money that I take each and every day.

    90% and 10% - remember!


    Ok, time to go and see if I can ring into Cramer to tell him what I think of him:D
     
  217. Are you trading RANDOM? You are getting desperate here NYSESTOCKS!:p
     
  218. Dammit! I have to agree with nysestocks again!

    What is your proof? How do you determine this?

    As far as I'm concerned, it's a game of math. Your proof seems awfully subjective so far. If you can do it, then great. But I wouldn't try it at home.
     
  219. are you getting at some kind of "most traders lose, so do the opposite" or am I feeding a troll?

    this to me would seem obvious, but not a specific rule to execute. hell, I was a forex dealer once upon a time, that was how we made money...
     
  220. Thank you nysestocks.
    Your thread has nudged me towards
    *valuable* insights. The KISS principle
    not the least among them.
     
  221. Ha! "Bullshite", huh??? Mr. Miyagi strikes again ...

    The holy grail of trading must be, "Wax on, wax off. Wax on, wax off.":D
     
  222. Ditto this thread.
     
  223. And that would show that the top 10 journal traders are not following pops rules and thus proving??? You are correct??
     
  224. The only person you ever need to prove anything to, is yourself!

    One man's gain is another man's loss jn!

    I was going to post more stuff from others, but after reading it a bit more thoroughly, I would only be doing everyone an injustice, as they all are still no where near knowing the "obvious".

    I am sorry to say it, but the same old stuff will continue to be re-formatted and presented in a seemingly new light - but beware, and always remember what Mrs. Boyd said to her children!

    Sometimes I just get fed up and want to tell people, but I know if I do then it is ruined for the select group that know, so, all I can do is continue to try and lead some traders closer to seeing, and believing, that nearly all of the "stuff" that they will read and hear from other traders, is nothing short of rubbish!

    I am not being a big headed, over inflated egoistic old badger here, I am just speaking what I know to be the truth!

    So I will continue as I see fit - those who want to participate can do so, with the guarantee that they will learn something of value, and those who do not want to participate can go the hell where they like, for I really don’t give a damn what they say or do :D

    Confidence is very easy when you know what it is you are speaking about - and that is why no one can really "show" me up, even though to them they actually think they can:p

    So, let the free lessons continue for those who want to consider what I write, and for the rest, well, go and "mentor" some newbies and show then what you really know about taking money from other traders on a daily basis:D
     
  225. kein mein Führer
     
  226. Question No.2

    What is this chart of?

    [​IMG]
     
  227. Love Trading


    But I never defined the time frame for being range bound

    and

    I always have a deep appreciation for what NYSESTOCKS has done, for it may be what he does in the future - or not

    Food for Thought Sir
     

  228. All I see are horizontal red and blue lines - I have no imagination

    Red lines look to be made up of "0"
    And I can't tell about the blue lines
     
  229. i would guess that's point and figure of oil futures.
     
  230. Here is my guess:
    Chart 1 is somewhat range-bound.
    Chart 2 is more trendy.
     

  231. Price of a stock is LOW for one reason: supply is greater than demand.
    Now if one buys LOW, one needs to be sure that demand for that stock will be greater than supply at some future time. If this is the "obvious" that you'd been driving at, then how does one know the demand will be greater than supply at some point in the future?

    Thanks and regards
     
  232. capital managment
     
  233. You use options to leverage your bet?
    Could you recommend the risk/reward ratio to be used?

    Thanks and regards
     
  234. Because emotion gets in the way. So one needs to locate one's comfort zone according to what one finds in practice trading the chosen instrument. And then to come up with the parameters to control risks(loses) that can happen to one's capital.
     
  235. One cant control the outcome of the stock direction, but one can control how much the bet is.

    Thanks and regards
     
  236. If you meant Chart No.1, then No.

    And for Chart No.2, it is also a No.
     
  237. In this case, the questions were "what do you think this chart is of?"
     
  238. MMD, the best thing to remember is that there are "no experts" in the trading game, even though many think they are so!

    Buying Low means you buy when the price has fallen to a certain level.

    And, you will never really know if the price will fall a small bit lower or a good bit lower!

    But, you can put yourself in a position where the chances of the price falling a good bit lower are a good deal less than they might otherwise be!

    Opposite for selling.

    Supply and demand is very subjective - for how do you know if a big player is about to put in an order to buy $100+ Million in a stock and that player may not have traded that stock for the last 6 months, or even longer!

    Volume can be very misleading, and that is why I rarely use it, and when I do, it is only on one specific timeframe!

    BTW, what has a big impact on your trading results is your chosen timeframe to trade - but that should be obvious to all that have tried out live trading.
     
  239. The 2 charts are rotated PNF charts (of price) :)

    the 2nd chart seems to have more noise.

    i can see obvious, but not obvious which is not obvious:)
     
  240. It is far more important to get the entry right, than the exit!

    Why is that you may ask?

    Simple!

    If you get the entry right you win - If you get the entry wrong you lose!

    You can concentrate on your exits when your ratio of good entries to bad entries is about 7:3.

    But wait, many will tell you that you can make money with a good system that has only a 4:6, or even a 3:7 ratio, and that the profit is made by good exits!!

    Well, as I might have mentioned before, give me the last 200 trades and I will easily show you how stupid and silly this way of thinking is!

    If you CAN make money with a 4:6 ratio, then imagine what you can do with a 7:3 ratio:D

    For Pig Iron, let’s say the market averages me 5 stock trades per day with a $200 max risk per trade.

    And let’s say that my average profit target is $0.80.

    How much capital do I need to use - easy answer!

    What is my weekly drawdown - easy answer!

    How much can I make in a week - need to think about this one!

    What am I missing :confused:
     
  241. NO - options are a wasting asset, so the odds are stacked against you from the start if you buy options.

    Selling options is a very risky business, unless you have buckets of money, AND know how to adjust positions to stay delta neutral.

    Last week was a great time to buy S&P Call Options, but it was also a great time to buy S&P Futures contracts!
     
  242. NY it's hard to figure out whether you are playing cat and mouse or whether you do in fact have market truths to share. Many times just as in this post you hint at a basic truth and then veer away!
    Markets are overpriced and underpriced in most time frames (think Price Action), the ability to take advantage of these situations by using the best RR timeframe will improve your chances of being successful.
    Note- the answer is not found in Charts or Indicators!

    Regards

    Johno
     
  243. One take on what Morpheus said is:

    Unless I can do what I know, it is of no use to me!

    Now you will begin to see why there are so many "experts" in the trading game!

    But, the reality is that they are not experts, as the game is such that it is not possible for it to be so!

    In order to understand what it is you are trying to do - you must understand what it is you are doing!

    The only way to really understand anything, is to do it, so that you become aware of what it is!

    When you become aware of what it is, only then can you make changes to change how it is you interact!

    This to me is very simple, why it is so hard for so many is just beyond thinking - but as most do not want to think for themselves, then it is easy see why this is so:eek:
     
  244. Of course - if you have $5K and bet $2.5K per trade, then if you get the first 2 trades wrong you are out!

    If you bet $100 per trade, then you will have to get 50 trades in a row wrong before you are out.

    So, it should be obvious that if all I have is $5K, then I am far better off risking the $100 per trade.

    Hmm, if I am to risk only $100 per trade, then I better learn how to daytrade with low risk!

    The chances of getting 50 trades wrong in a row, even for a blind person that trades, is very slim:D
     
  245. Yes.

    Yes.

    :confused:

    I will be more specific.

    What markets are the 2 charts of - they are completely different markets!
     
  246. I have no time for basic truths, as the markets do not have any such people running them!

    I know that what they preach and make available is nothing short of lies and deceit.

    It is better to leave valuations and predictions to the "experts":D

    Me, and my like, well, lets just say that we are the magicians of the stock market.

    To many, we can make it seem impossible, but to the few that know, it is as easy as pulling a rabbit out of a hat, or making an Island disappear - take your pick, the illusion is yours to chose!
     
  247. how can one guess the market?

    these charts could represent even the same market, but with different size of PNF box

    the markets may be guessed (by someone good) if you tell more about size of box and how you have chosen the box size for each market
     


  248. Thank you for your frank answer, enjoy your time with the mice!

    Regards

    Johno
     
  249. That is the whole point!

    Who ever gets the charts right knows something about the markets.

    It really is not that hard if you stop and think!

    If I say the markets now, then I will only do those that want to think an injustice.

    For those who do not want to work it out - fine, but I am not interested in holding people's hands in case they fall - much better they slip a few times and get back up, then they wont fall as fast the next time!
     
  250. How about we dismiss all this talk about "expectancy", and how it will allow you to make more money trading!

    As someone has already explained it better than me, I will borrow some text to explain.

    If you want the book I am sure you can find it after a few simple searches - that is how I got it :D

    "We can calculate the odds of a series of coin flips or rolls of dice, but for many
    real trading scenarios a strictly mathematical approach is not possible and our
    intuition is inadequate. It would be nice to describe trade results in some compact
    and easy mathematical formula. One tool that has been used is expectancy,
    which is the most probable return for an event. What we will discover is
    that expectancy is easily misused when it is extended to a series of events or
    trades. When it is extended to a series of trades it must be compounded and
    also account for the risk management strategy that is used. It fact there are
    two types of expectancy that are presented in a later chapter. Even introducing
    a second type does not solve the problem of comparing various methods of trading.
    The fact is, there are a wide range of possible outcomes and a single number
    like expectancy cannot describe the whole population of possible results."
     
  251. Trader D is making me feel bad - I must be getting soft in my old age:D

    Hints in no specific order.

    100th of one plus seven

    Over thirty at thirty six
     
  252. Johno, I'm not entirely sure about the first part of your comment, or even what you were implying with the above quote. However, the part about prospective (and existing) traders not comprehending the requirements and implications inherent in buying low and selling high or buying high and selling higher really stood out to me.

    What is apparent and yet not so obvious to many, is that repeating "sell high and buy lower" or "buy high and sell higher" is totally different than actually being able to psychologically do this in practice when it's your livelihood that is relatively at risk in every single trade. I do it everyday, so I'm not speaking as a spectator.

    The fact that risk is implicit in every trade is something that I think most people on this website have difficulty accepting. Largely because they began trading without sufficient prep or guidance and became fearful of losing which, makes it difficult for them now to pull the trigger and overcome memories of how it felt to be wrong (lose) over and over in the past. That is assuming of course your style or strategy is profitable -- or that you're capable of trading it anyway.

    What isn't initially obvious to new traders is that what is at risk in each trade is more than $$$$. To make the $$$$, you have to be more careful about how you take risks with the intangible things that you risk in every trade.

    I don't know why the obvious is not so obvious. I don't even know what the aim of that question is. Maybe 'obvious' is only relative to your perspective. Maybe using the word obvious is far too open-ended to actually attract an accurate response.

    Either way, this is a good thread. I rarely post and this is definitely my longest post ever.
     
  253. Is the secret that price does not really represent what one would initially assume it represents?

    ...or at least not all the time?
     
  254. Guys,

    I am sick to the teeth of so called "experts" trying to explain to traders how they will make money.

    The reality is that it is very hard to take money from other traders!

    If you are smart enough to understand what it is I am talking about, then you will stand a far better chance than most!

    This is not rubbish talk - it is just plain and simple facts!

    Most so called "experts" are nothing short of idots, as they are living an illussion!

    Believe me when I say they do not know how the markets really operate.
     
  255. "7:3" ...no problem. -A little better actually. -For years.
    "taking money from other traders" ...no sweat. -Do it every day.
    "Stupidly give it back" ...bingo!

    Guess I answered my own question...
     
  256. NYSEstocks:

    The chart(s) are not market based, but are noise randomly, (like most market specific moves short term) like a Cardiologist/Radiologist medical chart.

    It is thrown in as a zinger to prove a point about the tendency of humans to "see" "patterns" in things like stock charts when non-market noise depictions seem to show the same attributes.

    :cool:
     
  257. Given your comments hinting at aspects of the EMT, while noting the difficulty of taking money from other traders, it is amazing people are not able to get the crux of your arguments.

    It is also fair and correct to keep it a secret, for reasons already discussed and a host of others less impacting on those in the know.

    Further, I mostly but do not entirely agree trading is gambling, it is calculated speculation, which is not the same as gambling in the sense most understand it.

    If you have the edge, as a casino does, they cannot account for the linear *distribution* of wins or losses, but their edge on each play due to rules implementation assures them of winning over time.

    I agree with most of your assertions, though, you do not come across too well but that is not the point here...
     
  258. Sir

    With all due respect -

    Price is always what it is – never lose sight of that fact - Please

    However – intent – Now that may be something altogether different


    Regards
     
  259. It is obvious that entering a trade, I may be wrong or right.,

    Now, if I know that I can be wrong or right, what is the % of time I am right vs wrong.

    What is the amt I will risk to be wrong or right.

    Most traders once they are wrong, will revenge trade. This is obvious, just like the pros who play poker will go on tilt.

    So can I determine how the market will look if I am right, and can I determine what the market will look like if I am wrong.

    Also, since I can be wrong, I don't want to "bet" all my money on one hand which I could be wrong. Also, I don't want to risk an event that if I am wrong will take me out of the game.

    What risk are we accepting. For example, if we sell premium like AIG with a 30 to 1 leverage, what happens when the black swan comes calling. Did the trader or company put in any risk management. No, they did not understand what they were actually doing until it was too late. However, the benefit of using other people's money for the traders is that they got bonus no matter what and had the fed step in. So if you can accumulate enough wealth that your bet will destroy the financial markets, you have a way out that a normal trader who would get margin called does not. So its obvious that being a hedge fund is the best way to make money. Being a hedge fund, you don't even have to trade to make $ billions. You just have to pay the previous investors with money from the present investors. This is the what is so obvious that even the op does not understand. This is the true edge and holy grail.
     
  260. It is very obvious that you do not know, or understand, what it is I am talking about.

    If a hedge fund had access to the information that I have gained access to, they would make Warren Buffet look like a tidily winks player!

    But, they would need to be very clever and not arouse too much interest in their dealings - which would be very hard when one is talking about trading $billions!

    So, for the purpose of the ordinary man in the street, which is the one I am interested in helping, I will continue to post as I see fit.

    Those who will take the time to work out what it is I post about, will not regret it one little bit.

    As for the big hedge funds, they are the ones that I, and my like, take money from each and every day. It is like taking candy off a baby:D
     
  261. You must be able to know the difference between a high risk entry and a low risk entry.

    This will be different for everyone, except for the small few that know, where it is always nearly the same!
     
  262. I can't remember - was it the student!
     
  263. The 2 charts are indeed 2 different real markets!
     
  264. If you are, then you know exactly what I am doing!

    The reality is as follows - any time you put your money at risk you are taking a gamble with it!

    One can argue against this fact day and night, but it will not change the reality of risk taking!

    Of course you have to play like the casino - for everyone knows that the casino always makes money, and lots of it!

    It does not bother me one bit in the least how I come across, nor should it bother any person likewise!

    The only thing that a person should be concerned about is his/her trading account balance - for that is all that matters!
     
  265. I guess everyone wants to find a low risk entry (such as trying to pick tops and bottoms), but dont really know how.
     
  266. BLASH is not the same as BSLASH!

    SHABL is not the same as SSHABL!

    If you try and do something that you do not know about, you might find out that things don't go that well for you.

    For some silly reason, mostly due to so called "experts", the majority of people think that they can do something very well with something that they know absolutely nothing about!

    Is the world not a funny place!
     
  267. Low risk entries and picking tops or bottoms are usually totally different animals!

    Time to start thinking!
     
  268. To continue:

    I am actually getting a bit interested in this author, as he knows what he is talking about, but he does not know the "obvious", nor will he ever know it!

    "Expectancy is sometimes recommended as a predictor of profitability. It is the
    probable return or profit for the next trade. It applies to a single trade. For a
    series of trades expectancy must be extended in ways that are not always obvious.
    The way in which expectancy is extended to a series of trades depends on
    the risk strategy being used for that series of trades. If fixed risk is being used
    then the extension is quite simple and straightforward. However if a percent of
    equity is being used as a risk strategy extending expectancy is more difficult.
    Expectancy is sometimes considered to be a figure of merit for a trading method.
    A high expectancy suggests that one method will be better than one with a
    lower expectancy. This is only roughly true. All measures of expectancy have
    problems because they forecast only the average expected profit. They say nothing
    about drawdown, nor are they predictive of the range of profit that might
    occur. Monte Carlo simulation shows the range of profit and drawdown that
    can be expected from a series of trades."
     
  269. You can not see the top of a mountain when you are standing on it!

    I said I would not post analogies and the such, but in some cases they can explain the meaning in a few words, what otherwise might take a paragraph, or more!
     

  270. Nysestocks,

    thanks for the thread. I am enojying it! I will be honest and admit that I have no idea what the obvious is that you refer to. That said, I am making money. So I ask myself, perhaps I am doing the 'obvious' unwittingly and if I am then my percentage returns should roughly equal those one a trader who knows what the 'obvious' is and exploits is correctly.

    So my question is, what would be an aproximate percentage of growth on the account of such a trader who is knowlingly exploiting the 'obvious'?
     
  271. Of course one should not sell a swing high.
    There is still too much risk. Price is in the process
    of establishing or confirming a resistance. Too choppy
    and unpredictable here. Waiting for the roll-over to
    become relatively 'irresistible' (~5%-10% off the top)
    then jumping ahead of the pack right before the break
    is the better bet.
    This would constitute one SHABL strategy,
    and is (to me) 'obvious'. Auto-bots set these up all
    over the place these days. (Another 'obvious'?)
    So is "The Obvious" then just a collection of littler obviouses?
     
  272. traderbigt, THANKS!

    nysestocks,
    This thread is providing me with some good "exercise" that cleanses one from all the "toxins" that have been taken in. I need that. It is appreciated. rc
     
  273. Not correct. Expectancy is the edge of a trading system - in the traditional gambling sense - assuming a large enough sample of trades has been used to calculate it and profits and losses are normally distributed.

    Expectancy is NOT "the probable return or profit for the next trade". It is the expected return calculated from a sample of trades. You should learn the difference.

    There is no such thing as "probable return". It is only in the mind of the person who wrote that piece.

    In probability theory, there are event spaces and probability of events. In statistics, there is expected value and deviations from it, amongst other things.

    Whoever mixes probabilities and statistics is in the best case scenario, a loser.
     
  274. Maybe you are right, and maybe you are wrong!

    It will become "obvious" to some what it is they need to know, and what it is they do not need to know!
     
  275. If you are making money, then you are of course on the right track!

    In relation to your % question, and depending on available capital, and depending on the level of opportunity in the market traded, and depending on the mental state of the trader, the % growth compared with what the "experts" teach should be somewhere in the region of say 50% PA return for a good trader using the "experts" way and anywhere from 500% to 1000% for the few that are fully aware of what the "obvious" can, and does, deliver!

    Now, before people get all hyped up, one must remember than all people are different, and for one person 1000% might be a reality, while for another it may be very hard to keep even 10% of what they made!

    So, even when the "obvious" is known by someone, it still does not guarantee continued success!
     
  276. Sir,

    Contrary to popular opinion – one’s P/L is the absolute best trading indicator there is – follow it ardently for it will lead you to success... And eliminate all others as they are worthless - IMHO Sir

    Redneck
     
  277. I have two questions.

    1.) Are the two charts you provided hold all the "obvious" that the "few super elite traders" signal to each other it is time to act? Or is there other setup?

    2.) Do you usually hold your positions multi-day?

    Thanks and regards
     
  278. MMD, even though you may not realize it now, you are asking very important questions!

    I will be honest with you.

    1) Every chart holds the "obvious"!

    2) It depends on what I am trading.

    For example, recently a financial stock got hammered, so much so that it was on the verge of collapse, so I had to make a decision on whether the risk was worth it, as I usually do not hold positions for a number of days.

    It took about 5 days to get the desired position on, and after 7 days it was up 241%!

    I was willing to lose my initial bet, so I did not care if the stock went bust, and I am still holding, as the price might be good for about another 23% in about 1-3 days!

    The most important thing outside of the "obvious", is the understanding that you must never risk any more than you are willing to lose!

    In fact, I will go as far as saying that without ever knowing the obvious, if you understand and practice correct risk control, you will be streets ahead of the average trader!

    There are no "experts" in the trading game, including myself, but each and every trader can easily be an "expert" at risk control, if they but understand that every trade is a gamble!

    100 pennies make a pound, but it only takes 10 x 100 pounds to make a thousand pounds!

    Some traders have pm'd me saying that they have changed the way they think and act, and hopefully for the better!

    I hate it when "idiots" try to tell people they are "experts" at what they do, even though they do not say it outright, as, you are now beginning to see that there are no "experts", but there are a few clever people that know how to take more money out of the markets than others, and, they are not "experts", they just know what it is they need to know, and more importantly, they know the difference between a low risk and a high risk entry.

    Trade entry is the most important thing ever, but this should be "obvious" to even a child, as if you get it wrong from the start, the odds are stacked way against you, and you then start that chain reaction of thoughts that lead to, well, do you want to guess what that might be!
     
  279. RT, you are of course correct.

    If one is not making money, then they should stop trading and work out why they are losing money.

    You lose money because the price went the opposite direction to they way you thought it might go!

    So, if you want to stop losing money, you must either change they way you think, or stop trading!

    There is another solution that can work, but it is so hard to believe that the majority will laugh at it, and that is to reverse your order entry keys with the software, so that when you think you are buying you are actually selling, and when you think you are selling you are actually buying:D
     
  280. RCN, the only reality in life is that most people are - and this will cause some offense to many, but so be it - ignorant!

    When you realize that the majority of people are ignorant, then you will understand that they talk mostly about themselves and what it is they know!

    But, and here is the interesting part, what they know is only what they have experienced - as it can be no other way!

    So, by a simple matter of applying logic, it should be clear that experience is the key to every success in life.

    And, how does one get experience.

    In college!

    On websites!

    Looking at television!

    Reading books!

    Bla, bla, bla!

    Look at what PDA means, and it is not that stupid little thing that allows you to trade when you are sitting on the jacks wiping your bottom with the WSJ paper:D
     
  281. TH, you are very clever in how you ask something:)

    How do you know it is a swing high unless you wait to see!

    Any idiot can look at a chart and tell you what has happened, but it takes a clever idiot to look at a chart and tell you what will most likely happen within the next "n" period:D
     
  282. PDA... hmmm... Property Damage Assesment???:confused: :)
    Not real sure. But it does seem like that would be a good way to gauge one's experience since one's trading account is really THE main thing that matters. I enjoy trading and all that but, hey... It's really all about the $$$, right? I work hard for me and my family's living and losing money to the market is NOT fun. At least if I went to the casino I could have some good times, good food, and a good vacation while losing my money!:D...I DO take my trading serious though. Maybe...Hopefully...with the guidance from some on this thread I can get through the "win some lose some" barrier (smoke, mirrors, and toxins and such) and be on my way to some consistantly sizeable profit$..."OBVIOUSLY"! Once again THANKS for the enlightenment thus far! RC :cool:
     
  283. Nyse,


    chart 1 - stock
    chart 2 - futures contract

    Looks like the obvious is in the chart 2 which shows some property of that particular market (related to your hints about mm hedging their bets and pit traders working with fungus ;) )

    You go long for a quick scalp after the p&f shows a significant drop in price. That would seem consistent with your comments about 90% BLASH, since it also works in a downtrend and gives you that 7:3 good:bad entry ratio. It also explains your comments about the "experts", bs indicators and trading books, since you simply exploit the mechanics of a particular market/instrument instead of working with voodoo dolls or real life analogies.

    Am I even close?

    Could you post a chart of your today's obvious?

    thanks,
    mindozas
     
  284. Z.O.G.,

    P retty D arn A pparent that some posters on this thread and others just don't have muchuva life.

    sorry ny for gettin' off topic
     
  285. “Why is the obvious, not so obvious?”

    … because most look outside themselves for the answers!

    As a trader, it is important to learn all you can from various sources, (i.e. ‘Experts’, ‘Systems’, ‘Rules’ etc.), but in the end, it is YOUR skills, YOUR discipline, YOUR strategy that will make or break you.

    None of us trade exactly the same. We KNOW many of the same things. But we each have different strong and weak points which are refined into a personalized trading method that makes the most of our natural tendencies. Personally, I day trade to pay the bills, but counter trend swings over longer time frames to make the big money. I know when I begin to build a counter trend position for a swing, I’ll probably be feeling some pain. Other traders like NYSESTOCKS might say I was being “stupid” for staying in a loosing trade. Others might try it themselves only to loose a lot of sleep resulting in eventual capitulation. Others might also enjoy the same success and suddenly find themselves with a 2nd Mercedes. Finding a system that truly works for you and all your individual, special traits is what will allow you to take money from other traders on a consistent basis. They are always looking outside themselves for an edge like NYSESTOCK’s ‘holy grail’. Each of us only need look to ourselves!

    “All of what we are is the result of what WE have thought”
    - Buddha

    :cool:
     
  286. ... and your chart looks like a vertical OHLC. Potential double bottom, similar to what we saw on the S&P MID OCT. – MID. NOV ‘08 .:cool:
     
  287. This kind of opportunity is very rare, it's like buying corn at 30 year lows around $1.50, there is around a 99.999% chance that it will not go to zero.
     
  288. Could the obvious be to do the opposite of everyone else? I am a new trader just barely hanging on and would love to find an edge.
    This thread is quite fascinating.
     
  289. Chart two closely resembles the ES on 3/13/2009. I'd guess the P&F chart is of an index or an equity.

    [​IMG]
     
  290. Kudos AllOrNothing! Can't see how you can get closer than that!

    Also, thought that I'd add something that is "obvious", but has not really been mentioned much during this thread. Charts like this and various other indicators are, for the most part, simply tools for displaying MARKET SENTIMENT. My initial reflex to the question, “What is this chart of?” might be a ‘channel up’ or ‘cup with handle’. But why do so many of us believe that we gain an edge when correctly interpreting these visual displays?

    To answer this, I think we should all agree that the market is basically schizophrenic! How could it be falling one moment so dramatically, then rising the next, if it wasn’t suffering from some form of a bipolar disorder??? And of course the market is schizophrenic because traders are schizophrenic! So to the extent that a trader can proficiently utilize these tools to diagnose this enigmatic head case called the market, they will enjoy success! Perhaps this sounds a little crazy, but maybe with all of our charts, indicators, news feeds etc., all we are actually doing is asking the perennial therapeutic question, “So Mr. Market, how are you feeling today???”
    :D
     

  291. Sir.

    What do you think a chart really is

    You also say the market is schizophrenic (ever hear common sense is not so common)

    90% lose, 10% win - consistently


    I wonder if these are related in any way - Yes Sir - I just wonder


    Redneck
     
  292. It is "obvious", that a chart displays MARKET SENTIMENT, which as I said has not really been mentioned much during this thread ... perhaps because it is sooooo "obvious". What is not so obvious is the answer to the question, "So, Mr. Market how are you feeling today?" Perhaps the 90% that loose in the market incorrectly perceive the answer ... or incorrectly perceive that they can answer the question ... or lack a strategy that can make them a winner regardless.
     
  293. nyse,

    Where the charts posted vertically on purpose?

    Is 90/10 ratio between BLASH and BHASH dictated by the market? How, if ever, situations are handled where ratio is different?

    Does BLASH always lead to BHASH?

    Do you use PNF charts to estimate risk/reward or manage risk?

    Thank you.
     
  294. nysestocks,

    Noticed you have not posted anywhere in a while... sure hope all is well. :)
     
  295. Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

    Is this a trick question?

    How clearly can this be stated . . . It's all obvious !

    Why are there overweight people who don't want to be overweight?

    All that is need to be known is known. Only after many trial and errors (some people call it "experience") will you know what you need to know and know what you don't need to know to accomplish certain things - lose weight, trade successfully, whatever . . .

    If this is not obvious to you, then you only have one thing to do . . . keep forging ahead until it is. It's all obvious ! Trust me.

    Keep trading.
     
  296. Yes, rcn, all is well - thank you.

    I am but an average person like most, but I really do not like it when others think that they are "experts", when the facts show the exact opposite!

    This pullback from the 810 level was expected, although many were expecting a further follow thru!

    Look at the volume since 10 Mar!!!
     
  297. YES, exactly, and one must be prepared to act when the opportunity presents itself!
     
  298. But how did you know that BOB was going to throw a $T into the pot!!!!
     
  299. I like your AON choice:D

    You Sir, had the brains to Look Do and Act - I doubt if you need any assistance with taking money from other traders:D
     
  300. BP, do not be disillusioned by what you see and read!

    The hard and real facts about trading are that the majority lose, and will always lose!

    What you must ask yourself, if you want to look after yourself of course, is, what the hell am I doing!
     
  301. Hmm, NOS, you touch upon a very delicate topic!

    Once upon a time, in a not so far away land, I was very interested in Mr Bud, and his like!!

    But, I can now tell you, in a world of reality, and with the utmost truth, that Mr Bud, and his aliases’, are nothing but a load of crap!!

    Why is that you may ask - well, it is so, so, simple!

    What the hell does someone know, who has never experienced the reality of the situation, know about it!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    It is like saying that a new born baby knows to look after itself!

    There has been some reference to history and wise "men" - and I myself did mention that we can learn from what has happened in the past - but if we are to be "real", then let us mention a very famous common sense saying:

    "The only thing I know is that I know nothing"

    If I know nothing, then there is one thing I better do!!!!!!!!!
     
  302. RN, one mans' gain is another mans' loss!

    This will always be so for those who want it to be so!

    It can easily be one mans' loss is my gain!

    You and I, and some others, know different!

    The reason why we know different is simple - we think differently:D
     
  303. YES.

    You always do what you have to do, not what you think, or what you like, to do!

    I rarely use PNF charts - but that is irrelevant!!

    NO - you BLASH when you must BLASH.

    You BHASH when you must BHASH.

    No one ever said it was easy - if it was then everyone would be making money, which just does not happen!

    But, I can tell you now, if you have a fraction of a brain in your head, and are willing to use it, you can stop losing money, and when you stop losing money, you will be amazed to see that sometimes you will make money, and when you start making money, you will like it, and you will like it so much, you will forget about all the times you lost money, so much so, that you will make more money than you lose!!
     
  304. YES and NO!

    Always remember one thing!!!!

    "There is ALWAYS someone out there that knows that little bit more than me"

    It is "that little bit more" that can make all of the difference!

    I know, I have walked the wrong path many times, and it was only when the "correct" path was shown to me did I actually "see" it!

    I kicked myself up the "ass" for being such a fool for so long!!
     
  305. How many of you know what C.O.N.T.R.O.L really means?

    I will start off with what I think "C." really means:

    C. = Caution

    O. =

    N. =

    T. =

    R. =

    O. =

    L. =
     
  306. Often
    Never
    Tempt
    Risky
    Outright
    Losers
     
  307. O. = Observation

    No more:D
     
  308. all I know is that I don't know nothin. that is why I often stop/reverse when proved wrong.
     
  309. :confused: stop and reverse ,why Ido not do it????
     
  310. You can if you like!

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  311. Does the obvious involve volatility and relative value?
     
  312. I heard it said that it is very hard to stop a milktruck - is that true:D
     
  313. It must involve volatility, as volatility is nothing more than price movement in one direction, and then again in the opposite direction!

    As for relative value, I doubt if anyone knows what it means in this day and age:D

    N. = This one I bet no one will get!

    T. = Timing

    R. =

    O. =

    L. =
     
  314. Ahhh, I thought I recognized a bit of the Socratic Method in your style NYSE. And of course you are right, “What the hell does someone know, who has never experienced the reality of the situation”. However, with your focus on ‘Mr. Bud’, might I rephrase my larger point.

    A trader must ‘OWN’ the methodology, plan or system they employ. You can read book after book or ET thread after thread, but if one does not embrace an approach to the market that is right for their individual psyche, lifestyle, or long-term goals, they will fail again and again. The ‘holy grail’ of trading can be dumped in one’s lap but if they are a scalper with the disposition of an investor, or a daytrader who hates risk, it will not matter.

    “Know Thyself”
    - Socrates
     
  315. Is that a veiled trading reference you weirdo?

    :D
     
  316. C - Caution
    O - Observation
    N – (Noise, Normalized)
    T - Timing
    R – (Risk)
    O – (Opportunity)
    L – (Lag or Limit)
     
  317. My guess

    N - neutral
    L - limit of your bankroll.
     
  318. was I mistaken thinking it was simple since it was obvious?

    I though we were going to end up with a nice catch phrase and now we have a 7 letter acronym.
     
  319. NAS, this is of course very true for the majority of people!

    However, when we are very young we are like a sponge, soaking up everything that surrounds us.

    Then, as we develop, and we get "educated", we tend to see things in a different way, to the way we started out!

    Maybe, just maybe, if a trader really wants’ to "make it", then instead of making the trading fit their lifestyle, the might be better off to change their lifestyle to fit the trading!

    However, that is a big risky thing to do if you don't know what the hell you are doing!

    So, going back to basics, if you don't know what the hell you are doing, then the odds are you will not be able to do it!

    Is it not amazing how many people risk their hard earned money in the "markets", and yet they know very little about how it really works!

    Like the "education" that changes our early way of thinking, we must also be aware that the "trading education" we receive will also change our way of thinking, and it is usually for the worse, as is proven year in and year out, in all countries, with all races, and all ages!!

    The hard and real facts are - anyone who risks their money, without fully understanding the meaning of risk (high probability of losing - and we are not even contemplating what leverage can do to a person who does not know what they are doing!), well, lets just say they will get exactly what they deserve, for:

    "We are what we think"
     
  320. I am not the one with the nick called "milktruck":D
     
  321. I blame fate and my high school soccer team.
     
  322. R. = Reaction

    The term is C.O.N.T.R.O.L

    If you are not in C.O.N.T.R.O.L then your chances of success are greatly diminished - some would say about 99.999% not in your favor!

    You can be as thick as a plank, and if you know what you can do when you are in C.O.N.T.R.O.L, you can beat all the so called "experts" hands down!

    I bet you $1K, that if you ask 100 traders who have lost money this year, to explain how they trade, you will see that are at the opposite end of C.O.N.T.R.O.L, which is C.H.A.O.S

    C. = Casual

    H. = Hoping

    A. = Angry

    O. = Over Confident

    S. = Silly
     
  323. Neutral
     
  324. It is no good blaming anyone but yourself MT!

    BTW, I am a weirdo, and so is everyone else on this earth:D

    Thing is, I can be a weirdo or a magician, the choice is mine to make, and I choose whichever suits best!

    Sometimes I find it is much better to be "Mr. Weirdo" than to be "Mr. Magician"!

    After all, who in their right mind would look at chart the wrong way up, and make money:D
     

  325. An artisan Sir :D



    Glad to see you’re back
     
  326. The hardest two to get are;

    N. = ?

    and

    O. = ?

    L. = Level Headed

    Think about it!

    C = caution O = observation N = ? T = timing R = reaction O = ?
    L = level headed

    O = ? has already been mentioned in this thread, but to find it you must ask mother!
     
  327. Haha, you know, I think the reason I have a slight short bias is my daily familiarity with gravity. Maybe Ill stand my monitor on its end see if any rabbits come out of the hat.
     
  328. Then you may find solace in the "O"
     
  329. objectivity?

    by the way thats my best pickup line you just used
     
  330. Non-biased
     
  331. A very good point RT - well worth expanding!

    Many say that trading is an "Art" form.

    This can imply that a trader is, in some ways, similar to an "Artist", or as I prefer to say, a "Chartist":D

    Now, however, and many will be unaware of this, an "Artisan" is a person who uses their hands to produce something of value that can be used - one should try sitting on a painting and see where it gets them:)

    The majority of traders paint lovely pictures of the market, and some even go to great lengths to color them in:D

    As you can see from my simple charts, I just take the silly little thing and turn it this way and that way so that I can see something that no one else can see - but, remember, not everyone can make a solid piece of furniture that you can actually use day in and day out for the rest of your life!

    Just in case some of you take the P&F rotation seriously, it is meant to explain a point - do not waste your time trying to see something that is not there to be seen, but if you do see it, then good, but do try it out and validate it, with real money, not with that other silly back testing stuff, which is nothing short of a load of boll*x!
     
  332. Actually, there is no need to risk injury anymore, for you can now get a 21" widescreen monitor that you can rotate on it's base - you should try it, you might be amazed at what you won't see:D

    Okay, back to the serious stuff, enough playing for now!
     
  333. my guess

    N = not hurry, deliberate
    O = obedience
     
  334. why does price move faster left than right ???

    :D
     
  335. Good one MMD, mother and obedience:)

    Pity it is not practiced as much as it was in the past :(

    But that is not the best answer I think - when I said ask mother, I meant Mrs Boyd!

    To speed things up a bit, as I can see that it needs to get more interesting for some,

    O = Orientation

    Hmm, now that can mean a few different things, but in relation to trading it can only be 1!
     
  336. Are you looking at a chart the wrong way up TS:eek:
     
  337. Very good answer LT, but maybe a "lot less" would be better at times!
     
  338. Hey nysestocks,
    I read the thread and have a bunch of questions. Here are a couple, hopefully you'll get a chance to address them. I haven't got an issue with putting time and effort into trading as my circumstance affords me the ability, although I want to give myself a shot at being the best (not an expert). So my question is, is there a certain action or activity that if practiced over and over again will eventually lead to the discovery of the "not so obvious?" Secondly, can you tell us what it is, or what they are?
    Thanks
     
  339. don't you get it? this is hang man crossed with a crossword puzzle crossed with karate kid in the hands of a man who holds secret "obvious" truth.

    90% chance you will need to buy an ebook or move to some kind of cult compound in montana to find out!
     
  340. Yes I was. :/
     
  341. The obvious:

    1. you're competing against yourself
    2. you're up against experienced, successful traders that are picking pockets day in and day out with their billion dollar funds
    3. your angles and reasons are most likely wrong, because you need to make decisions from the other side of the coin
    4. you need to have square balls, when most people don't
     
  342. HS, seen as you have just joined us, and let’s say that you have not been here before, then the following may help you understand some little things that might help!

    It should be very obvious that those with good experience will know more than those with little or no experience!

    So, can you learn from others, of course you can!

    But, as most of what people know is not the best of what can be known, then your first goal should be to identify, or, spot the difference!

    Then, when you have done this, you should begin to see that "little things can matter a lot"!

    As for showing you, I have already covered that, and by doing so, not only would I shoot myself in the foot, but also the feet of a few others that also know!

    You must be prepared to work it out for yourself, as, you can get to about 75% effectiveness on your own, but one will never get to the other 25% unless you are very very clever, or like myself, are willing to do what ever it takes to get it, no matter what!

    The difference between success and failure can be very little, but it can cost a lot, in both monetary and social areas!
     
  343. I think you may have been trampled on too many times:D
     
  344. What goes up must come down

    and

    What comes down must go up

    :D
     
  345. 1. Why would you do that!

    2. It is not their own money!

    3. You should not have any angle but to make a small loss and a profit that is bigger than that loss!

    4. You need to leave your balls alone and concentrate on what you need to know, and do:D
     
  346. na I'm just bored this week. seriously once I decided to swing trade I have too much time on my hands to do things like post.

    my results have gone through the roof though!
     

  347. AS NYSESTOCKS said - "There can only be but 1 orientation"

    But what could that 1 be......

    As for the "N" - I wonder.....


    Take Care
     

  348. And for that I am truly appreciative every single day Sir:)
     
  349. N - necessity?
     
  350. Good for you milktruck, after a while you will be able to give up the early morning round:D
     
  351. Another good one TD, but not the "N" I was thinking of!
     
  352. Yep RT, and I have even seen one screen that paints the colors automatically!

    Imagine that, and imagine if one was colorblind:D
     
  353. 1. To break out of your mold

    2. One word: medallion

    3. True

    4. Ok, let's just drop this one.
     
  354. Learning how to trade would be much easier intellectually and psychologically if all correct trading actions were profitable and all incorrect trading actions were not. But sometimes the market punishes traders for doing the right thing and rewards them for doing what's wrong. Not only does that make it harder to learn intellectually, intermittent reinforcement is addictive and adds a "compulsive gambler" dimension. Not to mention that human nature is such that many times the best move is the one that "feels" worst.
     
  355. N - Niche ? :D
     

  356. If all the animals along the equator were capable of flattery,
    then thanksgiving and halloween would fall on the same day!

    Anyway, I looked up every 'N' word in the dictionary.
    (Oxford New American) Unless nyse's 'N' is a compound word,
    I can't figure it...
    Here's a stab, though - Nuance.
     

  357. Sir

    How could the market ever punish me – hell it doesn’t even know I exist, much less care about me one way or the other?


    And you say the “best move is the one that feels worst” – How can a positive P/L ever feel bad

    Just curious
     
  358. How true T666, and many do not believe me when I say that (when starting out) you should sell when you think it is the right time to buy, and you should buy when you think it is the right time to sell.

    There is nothing worse than making money from a bad decision, as it leads one up that wrong path!
     
  359. Very good choice cmnts, but again, it is not the "N" I had in mind!
     
  360. When one gains experience and moves beyond the "normal" way of thinking, it is then easy to see how it should not be so!

    But, we must be always aware that, as in all walks of life, the majority will always take the wrong path, no matter what, and the few that took that big decision to take the path that no one else would take, well; they will be justly rewarded for their choice, both mentally and monetarily!

    Many will know where this comes from.

    The Morale Trap

    1. You believe you have hope when there is no hope

    2. You believe you fight to the death when you have other acceptable options

    3. You allow pride to override good judgment
     
  361. Again, another good choice, but not the "N" I would choose!
     
  362. Numbers?
     
  363. this is really bugging me.

    can you confirm that it is only one word and that it does not start with non- or some kind of prefix so I can go through the dictionary and do it the hard way?

    all I can come up with is nigga please, nonchalance, nards, neurotic, and narcisism - all words that had a lot to do with when I was not trading well.
     
  364. I take it back nonchalance has been a profitable state of mind for me.
     
  365. I meant it as a metaphor because you're right, the market doesn't know us or care about our trades. Let's say you have an excellent system but you make 5 trades in a row exactly by your rules and all 5 are losers... that's what I meant by the market "punishing you" (with losing trades) even though you did the right thing (traded correctly). An example of the market "rewarding you" for doing what's wrong would be failing to execute a stop when a trade moves against you, hoping it will come back and it does... and makes you a large profit.

    My best trades have almost always been the scariest ones to take... the positive P/L feels good, but after the trade starts working out. You haven't experienced this?
     
  366. N = Nimble
     
  367. n = non-attachment
     
  368. any of you philosophising trader types feel like its all just one big game of plinko?
     
  369. Nope!
     
  370. It is 2 words like the last letter "L" - and the first is shorter than the last!

    It is very obvious that people are not reading the other words!!!

    Look at it as if it is a process!
     
  371. Hmm, some very interesting thoughts here!

    What exactly constitutes "trading correctly"?

    Also, sometimes the only way to make money on a trade is to have no stop at all - it is an "AON" bet!

    E.G. my recent enough trade in a financial stock was an AON bet which made money "because" I had no stop in place!

    So - did I do the right thing, or did I do the wrong thing!

    The facts are such that I did the right thing, as I made some good money on the trade, and if I had lost the bet, I would have also done the right thing, as it was an AON bet!

    Either way I was right, even if I lost!!

    This trading is indeed a funny business, is it not!
     

  372. Hey T666

    I knew exactly what you meant, more so than you probably realize Sir


    You see NYSESTOCK’s responding to my post was not meant for me, we both get it, it was meant to make others think


    And to answer your question

    Sure trading was scary (and all the other bad stuff) when I was still unsure of who I was – as a trader… When I lacked the understanding at my very being – what it means to be a trader…. When I was still unsure of what the market represented…..

    But not anymore

    I know what the market is, I know who I am as a trader, I trade exactly the way I must



    Aside

    This whole thread is truly my nirvana; I gravitate here specifically because I know – I, and a few others – share something extraordinary.


    When NYSESTOCKS stated – He, I, and a few other view trading in a completely different light – (that we think differently) – It is very true Sir


    I understand where he’s coming from, and I appreciate (more than words could ever express) what he’s offering other a chance to experience


    If a trader can get the point (the lessons) he’s trying to instill – a whole new trading world will open up

    It’s not like viewing the other side of a coin; it’s more like making a phase shift. And if a person can just make that transition – the possibilities are unbelievable Sir


    Disclaimer time

    I am a dumbass Redneck
    There are no experts in trading
    There are no trading gurus
    Trading is Gambling
    We all have winning trades and losing trades
    There is no secrete sauce, indicator, or whatever


    Aside

    To some, what I’ve wrote will make sense, to others it will sound like holier than thou gibberish

    I would only ask you to open up your mind to all possibilities please, for what’s being offered here is truly astounding…, and humbling

    Take Care
    Redneck
     
  373. "Jack be nimble, Jack be quick"

    "But if Jack is silly, Jack will lose his willy"

    :D

    [​IMG]
     
  374. :D :D :D :D :D
    eta I just spewed water on myself laughing
     
  375. Maybe you are right, and maybe you are wrong!

    Seeing is believing!

    I think it is time for some brain lessons, let me see what I can dig up:D
     
  376. Yes RT, it is good one if I do say so myself - I even laughed myself:D

    I can just see all the scalpers, getting ready with their 4 dozen screens, and live "audio" feed into the futures pit:D

    Might as well be listening to a bunch of pigs crammed into a lorry as they enter the gates of the slaughter house:D

    Who gives a sh*te about big hedge funds or billion dollar pension fund "portfolio managers":D

    If you want to learn how to take money from other traders then you better learn how to use that 3LB of spongy grey matter that is stuck between your two big ears:D

    Like our little friend Jack, if you are not careful, then your little jump may just burn your bills to cinders :D
     
  377. It may help some to understand how their brain actually developed - I now see why some people are called "dick heads":D

    [​IMG]
     
  378. Back to business!

    In order to come up with "N", lets pick a stock and see what happens?

    Pick any US stock that is worth trading - lets say with an ADV of about 5 Ml shares, or greater.

    Price must be at least $10 and not exceed $80

    It does not matter what sector it is in!

    They first step is to pick an entry point - so after someone posts the ticker with the correct requirements- as we do not need to know the name of the stock:D - those who want to partake can start posting their entry levels and stop levels - and if you have enough money you can place an AON bet if you are brave enough!

    Forget about the exit for now - the whole focus is on entry and how much we are willing to lose to another trader.

    Lets see who can lose the least amount of money:D
     
  379. normal distribution? negative feedback? is it math related? nit picky? non random? can I buy a vowel? if I can't guess do I have to send my profits back to my broker?

    if the first word is "not" you are cheating!
     
  380. We must use "Caution", as all is never what it seems - read the last few lines a few times!!

    [​IMG]
     
  381. Tell you what milktruck, we will give you first preference to pick the US stock, how about that!

    BTW, it is not not:D
     
  382. And last but not least!

    [​IMG]
     
  383. nysestocks, now that you've opened this can of worms, more of my opinion as to why the obvious is not always so obvious :eek:

    I would define "trading correctly" as executing a trading plan or methodology that is more likely than not to be profitable in accordance with its elements/rules. So I see two components: having a valid concept and executing it properly.

    The possibilities are:

    - executing a valid concept properly
    - executing a valid concept improperly
    - executing an invalid concept properly
    - executing an invalid concept improperly

    Problem is that the market might positively or negatively reinforce any of these.

    So using your financial trade to illustrate, I'd say you may or may not have traded correctly even though you made a profit. If your rationale for the trade was valid (why you made $) and you executed your trade as planned, yes. But if you bought BAC because when you pulled up the chart, a BAC commercial aired on TV and you thought that was a sign from God, no. A cousin of this would be if you bought your stock for seemingly valid reasons but it increased for other reasons, in which case I'd also say you did not trade correctly.

     
  384. I'd say you're far from a "dumbass Redneck" LOL.

    The only thing I'd add is that trading may not be scary for YOU anymore... this may depend on personality types... but for ME my best trades have almost always been the scariest to "pull the trigger" on. Personally at least, experience hasn't diminished the scary feeling but what is has done is give me the discipline to pull that trigger no matter what... even if it feels like I'm about to be hit by a freight train :p
     

  385. Chutes and Ladders might be a better analogy...
     
  386. neutral?
     
  387. BAC sure looks like it was a good buy around the $3.20 level with the $8 target!

    Concepts, ideas, systems, approaches, etc, etc, will indeed pass through the mind of a trader.

    However, the obvious is such that you avoid all the distractions that will "waste" your precious time!

    What you say is neither wrong nor right; it is just the path that many take due to their exposure.

    When one gets to a certain stage in life, and many wrong paths have been taken, then "correct" path is easier to find.

    A recent discussion with a trader raised a very important topic - I will post some related details and let people see what they make of it?
     
  388. How about,

    "good and bad"

    "right and wrong"

    "up and down"

    "in and out"

    :eek:
     
  389. Nope!
     

  390. Come on Folks - Please - someone pick a stock

    After all it's only trading:)
     
  391. I competely understand Sir

    But as we all know - to be successful we must BLSH and SHBL the majority of the time:)

    Take Care
     
  392. ANF :

    Entry 27.50
    Stop 22.50

    Have at'er boys.
     
  393. I bought mine at $2.77 that day it rolled off the table :p
     
  394. Because most people have never been taught to think for themselves, and for the most part are actually discouraged from doing so.
    You could drop the majority of people into a barrel full of tits and they'd come up sucking on their thumb unless someone gave them directions prior to dropping them in.
     
  395. I think it was you who turned me on to New Market Wizards page 128 beginning with the section "If trading can be taught . . ." which speaks to the topic of this thread. Also the quote on page 134: "The majority of people trade worse than a purely random trader would."
     
  396. ==== If trading can be taught, can it be taught to anyone with reasonable intelligence? ====
    Anyone with average intelligence can learn to trade. This is not rocket science. However, it's much easier
    to learn what you should do in trading than to do it. Good systems tend to violate normal human tendencies.
    Of the people who can leam the basics, only a small percentage will be successful traders.
    If a betting game among a certain number of participants is played long enough, eventually one player will
    have all the money. If there is any skill involved, it will accelerate the process of concentrating all the stakes
    in a few hands. Something like this happens in the market. There is a persistent overall tendency for equity
    to flow from the many to the few. In the long run, the majority loses. The implication for the trader is that to
    win you have to act like the minority. If you bring normal human habits and tendencies to trading, you'll
    gravitate toward the majority and inevitably lose.


    ==== Among the observations you have made about markets and trading over the years, do any stand out
    as being particularly surprising or counterintuitive? ====
    Some years back, a company ran an annual charting contest. The contestants had to predict the
    settlement prices of several futures for a certain date by a given deadline. Someone in our office [Dale
    Dellutri] decided, I believe prankishly, to use the random walk model. In other words, he simply used the
    settlement prices of the deadline as his prediction. He fell just short of becoming a prizewinner with this
    procedure. His name was among the first five of a list of fifty or so close runners-up.
    This contest had hundreds of entrants. Therefore, more than 95 percent, and probably more than 99
    percent
    , of the contestants scored worse than blind randomness. This is no mean feat.
    The extremeness of the outcome in this story seems to support an apparent phenomenon that I've
    observed many times over the years, but for which I have no hard evidence: The majority of people trade
    worse than a purely random trader would.
     
  397. You must always think differently to most, if you want to be successful, that is!

    The "obvious" that I am thinking of, is not the "obvious" that most will think of, but it is so "obvious" it is like the nose on your face - everyone knows that they have a nose, but only a very small few can actually see it without looking in a mirror:D

    ==== Your hypothesis implies that most traders would be better off throwing darts than using their existing
    method-a provocative thought. How do you explain this phenomenon? ====
    The market behaves much like an opponent who is trying to teach you to trade poorly. I don't want to
    suggest that the market actually has intentions, because it doesn't. An appropriate analogy is evolutionary
    theory, in which you can talk as though evolution has a purpose. For example, birds evolved wings in order to
    fly. Technically, that's wrong. Birds aren't Darwinians, and you can be sure no bird or protobird ever intended
    to evolve a wing. Nevertheless, natural selection acts very much like it intends for species to evolve things
    that are beneficial. You can talk about the markets in a similar fashion. Anybody who has traded for a while
    begins to feel that the markets have certain personal characteristics. Very often the feeling you get is that
    "they are out to get you," which is simply a personalization of the process. This illusion is well founded. The
    market does behave very much like a tutor who is trying to instill poor trading techniques. Most people learn
    this lesson only too well.
     
  398. That few must have very long noses.
     
  399. Who nose where this text is from:D

    "The change which actually took place in that world was in no sense revolutionary. Half an hour after swallowing the drug I became aware of a slow dance of golden lights. A little later there were sumptuous red surfaces swelling and expanding from bright nodes of energy that vibrated with a continuously changing, patterned life. At another time the closing of my eyes revealed a complex of gray structures, within which pale bluish spheres kept emerging into intense solidity and, having emerged, would slide noiselessly upwards, out of sight. But at no time were there faces or forms of men or animals. I saw no landscapes, no enormous spaces, no magical growth and metamorphosis of buildings, nothing remotely like a drama or a parable. The other world to which mescalin admitted me was not the world of visions; it existed out there, in what I could see with my eyes open. The great change was in the realm of objective fact. What had happened to my subjective universe was relatively unimportant. I took my pill at eleven. An hour and a half later, I was sitting in my study, looking intently at a small glass vase. The vase contained only three flowers-a full-blown Belie of Portugal rose, shell pink with a hint at every petal's base of a hotter, flamier hue; a large magenta and cream-colored carnation; and, pale purple at the end of its broken stalk, the bold heraldic blossom of an iris. Fortuitous and provisional, the little nosegay broke all the rules of traditional good taste. At breakfast that morning I had been struck by the lively dissonance of its colors. But that was no longer the point. I was not looking now at an unusual flower arrangement. I was seeing what Adam had seen on the morning of his creation-the miracle, moment by moment, of naked existence."
     
  400. And it gets much much better - the name of the book speaks for itself!

    "I continued to look at the flowers, and in their living light I seemed to detect the qualitative equivalent of breathingÑbut of a breathing without returns to a starting point, with no recurrent ebbs but only a repeated flow from beauty to heightened beauty, from deeper to ever deeper meaning. Words like "grace" and "transfiguration" came to my mind, and this, of course, was what, among other things, they stood for. My eyes traveled from the rose to the carnation, and from that feathery incandescence to the smooth scrolls of sentient amethyst which were the iris. The Beatific Vision, Sat Chit Ananda, Being-Awareness-Bliss-for the first time I understood, not on the verbal level, not by inchoate hints or at a distance, but precisely and completely what those prodigious syllables referred to. And then I remembered a passage I had read in one of Suzuki's essays. "What is the Dharma-Body of the Buddha?" ('"the Dharma-Body of the Buddha" is another way of saying Mind, Suchness, the Void, the Godhead.) The question is asked in a Zen monastery by an earnest and bewildered novice. And with the prompt irrelevance of one of the Marx Brothers, the Master answers, "The hedge at the bottom of the garden." "And the man who realizes this truth," the novice dubiously inquires, '"what, may I ask, is he?" Groucho gives him a whack over the shoulders with his staff and answers, "A golden-haired lion." It had been, when I read it, only a vaguely pregnant piece of nonsense. Now it was all as clear as day, as evident as Euclid. Of course the Dharma-Body of the Buddha was the hedge at the bottom of the garden. At the same time, and no less obviously, it was these flowers, it was anything that IÑor rather the blessed Not-I, released for a moment from my throttling embraceÑcared to look at. The books, for example, with which my study walls were lined. Like the flowers, they glowed, when I looked at them, with brighter colors, a profounder significance. Red books, like rubies; emerald books; books bound in white jade; books of agate; of aquamarine, of yellow topaz; lapis lazuli books whose color was so intense, so intrinsically meaningful, that they seemed to be on the point of leaving the shelves to thrust themselves more insistently on my attention."
     
  401. ==== My image of a blackjack table is where you sit down and are continually dealt hands* From a practical
    standpoint, how do you bet so selectively without it appearing awkward? ====
    My strategy was to play only the hands that had an advantage. I stood back and did what was called
    back-counting. You can get away with that if you're betting small amounts of money.
    ==== Were you immediately successful using this technique? ====
    Actually, in my first attempt, I made only about fifty bets and ended up with a net loss. At that point, I got
    a little more involved in calculating
    '*The object of blackjack is to get a total card count greater than the dealer, but not higher than twentyone.
    Each card has a point value equal to its face, except for picture cards, which each have a value of ten.
    and aces, which can be counted as either one or eleven at the option of the player, A blackjack is a two-card
    hand consisting of an ace and a ten-card- If a player is dealt a blackjack, he wins one and one-half times his
    bet, unless the dealer draws the same hand, in which case the result is a tie. If the dealer alone draws a
    blackjack, all players lose automatically. A player may draw as many cards as he wants as long as his total
    remains under twenty-one. If his total exceeds twenty-one, he loses automatically. The more concentrated
    tens and aces are in the deck, the better the odds for the player how many bets it would take to make sure
    that I would be a winner over the long run.
    ==== In other words, the reason fifty bets didn't work was that fifty was too small a number and still left
    the odds of winning too close to even. ====
    Right. I knew that if I kept on playing with the edge in my favor, eventually I would come out ahead.
    Following Thorp's advice, I started with a base of $120 and placed bets between $1 and $4. After two years, I
    was ahead about $10,000.
    Around this time, I became friends with another blackjack player who told me about a team of players
    that were doing quite well. He said, "This is a very secretive team, so I can't give you the leader's name. But
    I will give him your name, and maybe he'll contact you." A couple of months later, my friend was killed in an
    automobile accident, and I assumed that put an end to any chances of contacting the team. About a year
    later, the organizer of the team called me.
    Actually, during the interim, I had tried to put together my own team. However, I wasn't too successful in
    recruiting qualified members. For example, one time we were supposed to meet at the Sahara in Las Vegas,
    which is the city we always played in. One of the players, however, knew only of a Sahara in Lake Tahoe. So
    that's where he went. All weekend long, we couldn't figure out where he was.
     
  402. "If the doors of perception were cleansed every thing would appear to man as it is, infinite. For man has closed himself up, till he sees all things through narrow chinks of his cavern."

    - Aldous Huxley
    :cool:
     
  403. "N"

    Can "no" be the 1st word?

    No fear
    No emotion
    No memory

    -AON
     
  404. n = non-random?

    or new begining
     
  405. Yes - No is the first word!
     
  406. A few words.

    Some people are genuinely frustrated by what the markets have "done" to them over the last year and a half, or so!

    The market can only do to you what you let it do!

    Trading is gambling, whether one accepts it or not, or wants to call it by some other term, the fact of the matter does not, nor will ever, change!

    The first step should be to preserve your capital "at all costs", until you have it figured out in your head, and until such time as you can make money after a set number of trades, when you add up your losses and subtract them from your winnings - this will of course be different for everyone, as some will daytrade, some swingtrade and others will position trade.

    Time available, and family commitments, are as much importance as learning the required "skills" - which I should not have to mention for anyone who is seriously considering trading as a fulltime money making business.

    Trading is one of the hardest jobs to master, and yet is also one of the easiest - the one that it ends up being, is totally in the hands of the individual, and no one else!

    Of course one can learn from someone else, but even if one were shown what it is that works best, until such time as the picture is as clear as day, it will not make any real difference.

    A trader needs to get to the point where it does not bother him/her if they trade for a few days, a few weeks, or even a few months!

    The markets are going nowhere, and there will always be an opportunity to take money from other traders, providing you have enough money left to trade effectively, and wisely!

    Leverage can ruin a trader both financially and emotionally - so only use leverage when you are in complete C.O.N.T.R.O.L, otherwise you might as well give the money to charity and know that it is at least doing some good in the crazy world we now live in!

    It can also help a person greatly to "KNOW" that there are no experts in the trading game - those that pretend to be so, you will find, will always have an alternative reason for being "so generous" with sharing what they have learned - and it just so happens that the alternative reason is, and will always be, money!

    It is very wise to look at everyone as being silly and stupid - and I am not being sarcastic, just speaking some truth from what I have learned over the years!

    If you do not believe that "the only thing I know is that I know nothing" - then you will never open your mind to far greater and better things.

    Our education system has a lot to answer for, along with our many "religious" customs, but the only thing that you need to worry about when trading, is yourself, and let all the other silly idiots do what they like in the world!

    When you have made a good bit of money, then you can help who ever you want yourself, and not rely on others to help them for you - which, and yes, you all know this but do not admit it, just does not work, for many obvious reasons, and the main one being that those who need the help (majority) are not getting
    the help they so desperately need, and it is not the "money" that makes the real difference, for we all see that throwing money at serious social problems just will not work!

    I wonder what helps' people the most - it should be very "obvious" by now!
     
  407. No Talking
     
  408. no thinking :)
     
  409. NO EGO
     
  410. No bias
     
  411. no inhaling coke :)
     
  412. Not sure about inhaling coke, but drinking coke is very bad for you:D

    When somebody drinks a Coke watch what happens…

    In The First 10 minutes: 10 teaspoons of sugar hit your system. (100% of your recommended daily intake.) You don’t immediately vomit from the overwhelming sweetness because phosphoric acid cuts the flavor allowing you to keep it down.

    20 minutes: Your blood sugar spikes, causing an insulin burst. Your liver responds to this by turning any sugar it can get its hands on into fat. (There’s plenty of that at this particular moment)

    40 minutes: Caffeine absorption is complete. Your pupils dilate, your blood pressure rises, as a response your livers dumps more sugar into your bloodstream. The adenosine receptors in your brain are now blocked preventing drowsiness.

    45 minutes: Your body ups your dopamine production stimulating the pleasure centers of your brain. This is physically the same way heroin works, by the way.

    >60 minutes: The phosphoric acid binds calcium, magnesium and zinc in your lower intestine, providing a further boost in metabolism. This is compounded by high doses of sugar and artificial sweeteners also increasing the urinary excretion of calcium.

    >60 Minutes: The caffeine’s diuretic properties come into play. (It makes you have to pee.) It is now assured that you’ll evacuate the bonded calcium, magnesium and zinc that was headed to your bones as well as sodium, electrolyte and water.

    >60 minutes: As the rave inside of you dies down you’ll start to have a sugar crash. You may become irritable and/or sluggish. You’ve also now, literally, pissed away all the water that was in the Coke. But not before infusing it with valuable nutrients your body could have used for things like even having the ability to hydrate your system or build strong bones and teeth.
     
  413. One does not have to take drugs to experience the reality of life, as the brain can be stimulated more effectively by certain ways of thinking.

    Trading is like a drug - but you must realize this before you start "taking" it, else you run the risk of becoming addicted and ruining your life that you have worked so hard for over the many years!

    As mentioned, the majority way of thinking does not help the individual, and it will never do so, as History proves this since time first started to be recorded!

    Read what you must, not what you like!

    http://www.scotttinley.com/pdf/AldousHuxley.pdf

    Near the end of his life Aquinas experienced Infused Contemplation. Thereafter he refused to go
    back to work on his unfinished book. Compared with this, everything he had read and argued about
    and written - Aristotle and the Sentences, the Questions, the Propositions, the majestic Summas-was no
    better than chaff or straw, For most intellectuals such a sit-down strike would be inadvisable, even
    morally wrong. But the Angelic Doctor had done more systematic reasoning than any twelve ordinary
    Angels, and was already ripe for death. He had earned the right, in those last months of his mortality, to
    turn away from merely symbolic straw and chaff to the bread of actual and substantial Fact. For Angels
    of a lower order and with better prospects of longevity, there must be a return to the straw. But the man
    who comes back through the Door in the Wall will never be quite the same as the man who went out.
    He will be wiser but less cocksure, happier but less self-satisfied, humbler in acknowledging his
    ignorance yet better equipped to understand the relationship of words to things, of systematic reasoning
    to the unfathomable Mystery which it tries, forever vainly, to comprehend.
     
  414. no pants
     
  415. You’re back:D

    Although wearing "no pants" is very relieving at times, you are putting yourself at risk of getting a little "chill", so maybe change into a tracksuit when trading, as it allows more movement - you can stretch your legs as far apart as they will go, which can be very relaxing at times:D

    The "N" I am thinking of has not been mentioned as of yet.
     
  416. Just in case you think so, you are not been ignored Boib:)

    I will post a link later on, and those who want can use it, but you must say how many shares to buy, and, whether the initial opening order is long or short (we all know it is obvious, but better to state it clearly), a lmt or a stop limit.

    Also, is it going to be a..

    Day Trade?
    Swing Trade?
    Position Trade?

    ..again, obvious, but why not state it clearly, as this trading business is full of maybes!

    Many will know of and have used the different order types, but some will have not.

    http://www.interactivebrokers.com/download/newMark/PDFs/orderTypes.pdf
     
  417. holy shit :eek:
     
  418. Yep, now you know why Santa really has that big fat belly:D
     
  419. I was doing time
    In the universal mind,
    I was feeling fine.
    I was turning keys,
    I was setting people free,
    I was doing alright.

    - Jim Morrison
     
  420. I will never drink coke again, ONLY PEPSI :D
     
  421. no pants is a risk management method.

    when you see your testicles try to retract into your abdomen, you have taken too much risk.

    plus,its just nice.
     
  422. :D :D :D
     
  423. Boib - you can remove your nick if you like, the choice is yours!

    Please change your "No. Of Shares" to what is right for you.

    Other traders, who so desire, can add their details - again, it is up to you if you want to use your nick or not, as it really does not matter.

    http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=p9uIP1pHDrqYo-7G0JAsIGQ&inv=nysestocks@gmail.com
     
  424. no distractions
    no action
    ?
     
  425. No preference
    No following
    No news
    No fear
    No emotion
    No whining
     
  426. No hesitation
    No rules
    No experts
    No surprises
    No secrets
    k(No)w risk (I cheated)
     

  427. Could you please shed some light on how the statistic above come about?


    Thanks and regards
     
  428. OK MMD, lets see what we can make of this, and this event has just transpired a few hours ago.

    A mate and I went to a casino today - btw, the buffet lunch was exceptionally good, and it was only $20 Canadian for all you could eat:D

    My mate won some money a few weeks ago, and said lets go back to the same lucky table that he sat at:eek:

    I said to him, I bet you I will make some money today, and you will more than likely lose - he smiled at me as he got some chips from the roulette table op.

    He took the first available seat, as he was eager to get going.

    After the first 3 spins he was up, but he was putting the chips all over the table - "Hey" I said, if you keep doing that you won't last long - and of course, he smiled again:D

    He continued for about another 4-6 spins, and held his own.

    A seat became available and I sat in.

    I got 1/3 of the chips that he got to start.

    He kept throwing chips all over the table, and he was still holding his own.

    The opp asked me, inside or outside, or both?

    I said "inside" please!

    Minimum bet was $15, so you had to use 3x$5 chips for min bet, so my friend looked at me funny when I took just 3 chips from my pile and placed them on the diagonals of 3 sets of 4 numbers - 1st set at the top, 2nd set and the middle, and 3rd set at the bottom.

    First spin I won - he lost.

    Next spin he threw out chips all over the place again, I took my reduced odds bet winnings, stacked them up, and put 2 aside to use for the bet with my chip that was already left on the table.

    I moved them a few 4 x squares, as it really did not matter, as I had the plan worked out before I started!

    To cut a long story short, and after about 2 hrs of playing, he lost his initial money, plus the same again as he had to go for more, and guess what, I doubled my money:D

    "You were lucky with those numbers coming up" he said!

    "Na" I said, luck has nothing to do with it, "I just decided to play the odds a bit better, not go for big winnings, take the reduced odds that, over time, will give you better odds at winning.

    This is how gambling should be done - nice and easy, take it real slow and don't look to get the full odds with a heap of chips o n a few numbers, for, it should be "obvious" that if you go diagonal, you have 4 numbers per $5 bet, and multiply that by 3, gives you 12 numbers for a $15 bet!!

    Let the op spin away - and at one stage I had 6 losers in a row, but I just kept on doing the same thing, over and over, and after about 2 hrs, my money was doubled - I then said, bye bye Mr big fat casino man, and thanks for a nice enjoyable day:D

    This is a true story, you can believe it or not, the choice is yours to make!

    Actually, I picked up a leaflet at the casino, called “Responsible Gaming. Think about it…”

    How apt, I will post a section of it for all to read and enjoy!
     
  429. What is Problem Gambling?

    Gambling behavior that compromises, disrupts, or damages personal, family, or vocational pursuits or otherwise creates significant adverse consequences in important areas of a person's life.

    BTW, if you saw the money that some people were throwing to the big fat casino owner, it was ridiculous, and they were running from one table to the next, like a bunch of kids in a holiday resort, they just couldn't wait to get on the next ride!
     
  430. Like my playing the roulette table, I had a fair idea that if I was in C.O.N.T.R.O.L, ignored the idiots who were jumping up and down like monkeys - and kept the same thing going, that my chances of winning would be much better - btw, the supervisor looked at me funny a few times when he saw my chips starting to pile up, but I just smiled back at him, and said, "How's it going":D

    The amount I won is of no significance, it is the re-enforcement of the FACT that if you are not in C.O.N.T.R.O.L, then you might as well become an alcoholic and piss your money up against the wall, at least you will get some enjoyment out of it:D

    If you take breakout trades the majority of the time, then like the roulette table, the odds will not be in your favor - why, because they fade a lot of the time, run stops, and also just do it because they can!

    The other way is much more reliable, but you must trade smaller.

    Think of it this way - one way is your income generator, the other is your chance to make some big money with some realized profits - but if you are not there, and in control when this happens, then you will probably not make big money, but so what, the market is going no-where, and there will be days when you will be there, and then you can load up and really hit the big fat casino owner where it hurts most:D
     
  431. Someone has actually got the "N":)

    I will however, not say which one yet, as it should now be "obvious" after my gambling posts!

    As mentioned, think of it as a process - it should then be as clear as day!

    I am off to the bar now, to buy my mate a few beers, and rub it in about our little day out:D
     
  432. "no-where"...hm

    N - no hurry?

    BTW, nowhere=no_where=now_here
     
  433. no fat chicks

    if that wasn't obvious I don't know what is
     
  434. Hi Bob,

    Thx for the kind words, but it is really funny that you should bring this matter up at this point in time.

    I am intrigued at how Gann Traders take all the time to draw square boxes on a chart to "determine" what the S&R lines will be - is it not just amazing how the price touches these lines so many times!

    After all, lets us look at some of the past "heroes" of trading, and what they have accomplished.

    Livermore - a genius, and I think he ended his own life at 63:eek:

    W.D.Gann - W.D.Gann studied astrology, etc, because it was his passion:eek:

    Benjamin Graham - "[To] have a true investment, there must be a true margin of safety. And a true margin of safety is one that can be demonstrated by figures, by persuasive reasoning, and by reference to a body of actual experience".

    If you want to look for value - then more power to you, but make sure you don't get led up the wrong path by the value "experts".

    Buffet is no doubt an enigma, but so was Jesus Christ:eek:

    Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Alsaud - "We're getting hurt, but I'm a long-term investor." imagine what this chap could do with all his Oil money if he had half a brain:D

    People will always see what they want to see.

    Now, I am no Warren Buffet, and to be honest I would not like to be, but Warren Buffet is just an ordinary man like everyone else.

    What he has done with his life, well, is what he has done!

    What you do with your life, is, well, what you will do!

    There is a big difference between the reality of what one can achieve with their life, and what they are led to believe they can achieve!

    Knowing what you can achieve, well, is a very good place to start, and tends to get you focused on what you need to do, instead of entering into the world of our dear old friend, Mr Walter Mitty:D
     
  435. It will be a position trade if the buy stop is hit.
    at risk is 1% of my capital.
     
  436. Now for the bit that gets really hairy scarry:D

    What if I was to say, that, with a 95% probability, that RIG would hit $67 within a certain given timeframe.

    We all know that a stock price can only do 3 things - but the time that it does those 3 things can vary, as time and price are not one and the same, how can they be so, it is just not possible:eek:

    The big question to ask, is, how the hell can I determine where the price will be, within a certain time frame, and what are the odds of the price hitting that level?

    If it was so "obvious", then why didn't all the traders just buy RIG and make a killing?

    I know the answer to the riddle, and a few others, but as mentioned I can't say, for obvious reasons.

    But, some people are now starting to see that you don't actually have to know the obvious to make some money, but you do need to be able to think for yourself, and know that the majority of people out there are nothing but idiots, who all think they are "holier than thou", well, the reality of it all, is that the only person that a trader needs to "worry" about is himself/herself, and let all the silly idiots in the world look after themselves!
     
  437. To finish what has transpired with my mate, the big gambler:D

    He still insists that I was lucky, and he is my mate!

    Even though I have explained to him, about 15 times, why I did what I did, he can just not grasp the reality of what I am telling him!

    Therein, lies the reality of trading, and why people think they can make money by "throwing the chips all over the table".

    What is the opposite of C.O.N.T.R.O.L - it is C.H.A.O.S

    History is a great teacher of life - read and learn what is possible, and not possible for the individual to achieve in the short time that we have to live on this planet!

    Holy sh*te - maybe "I" am the idiot:D
     
  438. Thx Boib - we will try and dedicate some more time to trading, but this History is taking up a lot of my time lately:D
     
  439. Enjoying every word.

    Thank you
     
  440. NP Boib,

    You see, I am firm believer in justice and fair play. I was brought up by decent parents, even though my Father was a little fond of the "drink", but at the back of it all, he was a gentleman, and every person that I have ever spoken to that knew him, confirms it to me, and that is a nice feeling to have.

    I loathe it when I see all the so called "experts" exploit people for money, and when you have gained enough experiences in life, so that you become "aware" of what the hell is "actually" going on, it is very easy to challenge these people and come out the better.

    Once a person is willing to "always" speak what is on their mind, even if it transpires that they were wrong, then there is no harm in that.

    That is what life is all about - learning so that one can better oneself.

    The big problem, is that the avenues of "learning" have been closed off, and what we end up with is a one way thought stream - some will say on purpose, which I tend to sort of agree with, but there are times when I do have my doubts, but not that often mind you!

    So, who knows, let’s continue and see what happens, if one person becomes a better trader with the little help I am able to give, then that is enough for me.

    I don't give a sh*ite about what people think of me, and I really mean that, and to be honest, a successful trader has to have that attitude, else they will feck themselves up in the head when trading, and that can be very bad for the bottom line!

    When I say one must look at everyone else as being "idiots", I am not being sarcastic, for the reality is that most are, and if most are idiots, then it should be "obvious" that one will not learn anything of much value from them!

    Maybe I could put it a little softer, but hey, I don't give a sh*ite, and if someone wants’ to get rid of me, they can just turn on that "ignore" feature, if it is there, if not they can send me a PM and I will make sure that they are banned from the thread:D
     
  441. Finally, I could write all night about this stuff, as it is what I enjoy doing the most.

    Half the battle is enjoying what you are doing!

    If you do not find that you are happy, then the odds are you are not enjoying it, so it may be wise to stop and re-think about what you are doing!

    This really is very basic stuff, yet it is overlooked by most!

    What do children like doing the most, even from our own memories, and from what we see around us in our family and friends?
     

  442. nyse,

    was that a BLASH or BHASH? It is not obvious:)
     
  443. Gambling -> obvious

    Find a method of making small profits with very high probability and it will give good profit.

    Probability has the most control of drawdowns while both probability and W/L ratio greatly affect profit.

    Great thread,
    Regards
    K
     
  444. Hypothetical question for you nyses:

    Lets say you were given a magic crystal ball by someone you trusted and you had even seen its magic work with your own two eyes. You are 100% certain that what it tells you is true.

    This magic ball will only work for you once. This one and only time it will tell you that this one particular stock which today is at 5, will be at 100 on the last trading day of the month.

    Would you bet every $ you have and leverage to the max on this bet?
     
  445. The answer to this should be "no", because (as you stated) you saw it "work" with your own eyes, and it only "works once".
     
  446. Didn't you miss the part with "for you"?:)
     
  447. No, I didn't, thanks for asking.

    Perhaps you should ask the OP of this "riddle" to phrase his question better - because I answered his question as it was posed.
     
  448. I said it would only work for YOU once. You have seen it work for it's previous owner once.

    You just had a major opportunity loss.
     
  449. I just thought that "work once" and " work once for someone" differ semantically. Whatever...
     
  450. This is absurd. If I can merely sit back and "watch the thing work for somebody else", why would I even waste my one shot?

    Why not just parade individual after individual in, tell them to trade off this magic crystal ball, then structure an agreement where I take half the profits? Or is that "working for me", if only indirectly?

    "Oh, but it has to WORK for you!" Uh, when I see a trade working, the "convince me part" counts as "working". Otherwise, what you're saying is that it will work TWICE for me - once to convince me, the second time to make profits.

    It's like the question, "If you had one wish, what would you wish for?" Well, it surely wouldn't be for a magical e-mini trade, it would be for UNLIMITED wishes.

    I revert to my original statement: Have the OP phrase a better riddle.

    PS This is getting way off topic. I've followed this thread from the beginning and only now decided to comment, because the riddle was so vaguely pointless. I defer to the main posters here and their original intentions with the thread.
     
  451. Actually the question is for nysestocks.
     
  452. Off topic to say the least.
    Sounds like a question from a pre-school toddler.
     
  453. Off topic? If you knew the answer you wouldn't say that.
     
  454. Guys, you are starting to act like the people in the casino yesterday!

    Cool it - I see that someone made a bit of money with ANF today.
     
  455. NO WAY:eek:

    Firstly, I try and live in the world or reality and fact, not where our good friend Mr Walter Mitty resides.

    Thing is, I trust no one only myself:D

    I have seen some very good traders lose money for silly reasons, and some of those traders even know a good bit more than I do!

    So, if they have an even better edge than me, then why did they still lose so much money?

    It is no good making money in the stock market if you lose it back again.

    I would much prefer to take $100 often, than try and take $10K now and again - but when the $10K jumps up and hits my big nose :D , then I will gladly take it.
     
  456. It was heading for a BLASH - as was everything else!

    You will not make money unless you actually trade, but you should only trade when it is "obvious" that you have a good chance of not losing too much:D
     
  457. Ah yes, that little word "drawdown", which really just means you losing some, or a lot, of your hard earned money.

    The casino event, and I hate repeating it, shows how stupid people really are.

    One chap, threw away about $2.5K in about 5 min:eek:

    And to make it worse, when he placed his bet, he actually walked away and, I am not sure, but I thought I saw him playing another table as well!

    What a big idiot - he really had his plan worked out before he was placing about $500+ per spin :eek:

    I sat back enjoying my bottle of beer, just kept taking my 2 chips off the pile for the next bet, and was able to sit back and observe the many expressions that were forming on the faces of the gamblers - most of which were not very happy - my mate and I were the only ones drinking beer, btw:D
     
  458. Also AT,

    Not only have I seen the magical crystal ball, but I have also seen those who hold it in both hands fail, over and over!

    One might do oneself a big favor, if one did not forget that the 3lb of grey matter between the ears is the only magical crystal ball that they really need to see!!
     
  459. nyse. please define risk for me.


    I think your definition will be something along the lines of this:

    your risk is what you allow the market to take.

    and if that is your definition I feel that it is imperfect. there is always an amount that theee market will try to take even if it is just commission on the trade. so how can one identify the margin of error to give the market and still have an optimal risk management?

    sorry for the terrible post and questions that may have no revelance. I wanted to get the whole thing off my head bc I will be away from a computer for some time.
     

  460. He got lucky Bob :D :D
     
  461. because they think they are smarter then everybody else :D :D
     
  462. I see someone has identified the "O"

    A little compare and contrast to hopefully assist others


    Please remember it is a process


    C - Caution
    O - Observation
    N
    T - Timing
    R - Reaction
    O - Orientation
    L - Level head

    VS


    C - Casual
    H - Hoping
    A - Angry
    O - Over confident
    S - Silly




    Take Care
     
  463. Or possibly than they are Sir

    Take Care
     
  464. so if everyone thinks they are smarter then everyone else why aren't they moving the market?

    given 90% lose money, how does that work?
     
  465. I am afraid TS, that you might ask the impossible!

    How can I define risk for you, when it is "YOU" who must trade your own money?

    Take the casino, some of the people there obviously had buckets of money to throw away, so, to them, risking $500+ per roulette spin probably meant piddly piss:eek:

    Then, when you look around and see other gamblers playing the 1cent slot machines, well, the $500+ risk probably means an awful lot to them!

    It is actually very simple, if you but stop and think!

    You should never risk any more than you are willing to lose.

    Most traders can't get their head around every trade being a loser, which is what it must be before it can be a winner!

    Like Morpheus said,

    "There is a big difference between knowing the path, and walking the path".

    As for the "market" - remember that everyone out there is an idiot!

    If you let "idiots" take your money, all of the time, then you are not an idiot yourself, you are a fool - I do not mean you directly of course :D, but anyone who is not able to control what they will lose in a single transaction.

    You trade when the chances of you losing a lot are small - the winners will then just become a matter of time!

    Over time, with experience, more risk can be taken once the head is fully awake, and it is as clear as day as to what can, and can't, happen when you are in a trade.

    Again, I must bring up the roulette gambling from yesterday - how did I ensure that I would not lose any more than the minimum bet of $15 per spin, and still give myself the odds of doubling my money if a few hours?

    Hey, remember I am no expert, as there are none, but I do like to think differently to most, as I know that most people that I trade against are idiots, and I do not like giving too much of my money to an idiot:D
     
  466. Redneck trader and nysestocks both registered in Dec2008 - and both have about the same amount of posts!

    Are they one and the same?

    Now, just watch the skeptics sit up and take note:D
     
  467. I like what you say but I meant to ask for YOUR definition of risk. Not for you to define it for me. I have not perfected my definition of risk but you post did give an added angle on my perspective of it.
     
  468. Trading is gambling.

    When you gamble you must accept the fact that you can, and more than likely will, lose!

    Definitions and terms are meaningless - actions and resulting outcomes are what matters most.

    If you want an answer as to when you should "risk" more money than you would normally do so, it should be very "obvious" that the answer is when your chances of losing are far less than normal.

    How you determine this, will be in direct proportion to how you think, and how you view, the market you are trading.

    Sh*ite, if I am not careful I will start thinking that I might know something, and that is a very dangerous thing to do:D

    I used to read a lot of the rubbish published about "trading", but now I prefer to see what transpires in the "real" world of gambling, and paying a little visit to the casino, every now and again - not too often mind you :D - can help one get their head out of their arse and see what the "reality" of gambling entails:eek:

    Not sure if this helps, but that is what has come out of my head, like it or lump it - but again, the reality is that it really does not matter for me, as I am what I am, and, you should be what you are, not to try and be someone else - not suggesting you are of course:D
     
  469. The average "trader" is but a drop in the Ocean of Finance.

    I do not even try to think about what idiot economists think about, for that is mainstream thought, and that can be very bad for the bottom line!

    Many say that the"Stock Market" has to go up, so that the wheels of finance can keep turning.

    Well, everyone now knows that the stock market falls a lot faster than it goes up.

    Them you have that Madoff idiot who, was like a "Pope" to some people:eek:

    Did you just see that "black cat" walk by again:D

    I am telling you, idiots the whole lot of them, and if you listen to idiots, then you can expect only one thing, and that is, rubbish:D

    The greatest person in the world is YOU - and YOU do not need anyone to tell, or show you, what to do - if you but wake up and face reality, of course!

    Shi*e, I am starting again, and now I am beginning to sound like those stupid "groups" in America that "help" so many people:eek:
     
  470. Okay. One more concept that has been on my mind. You are of course right that the majority of players in the market lose. So this means there is an entity(or small group) that wins the MAJORITY of the time. We all know that the market consists of buyers and sellers and for each there is the other.

    So technically speaking you should be able to follow the MAJORITY of trades (contracts) to win. Which then in turn leads to AMT/MP and such.

    In essence my point is that the MAJORITY can also win, the majority of contracts, that are on the right side most often.
     
  471. Hmm, you are asking, that is "obvious":D

    Let's forget about all this majority and minority crap for a minute.

    Who enables the markets to operate - for, if they are the enablers, then they are really the ones in control.

    How many pension funds are there in America alone?

    How many "private" investment funds are there in the world?

    How many millionaires are there in the world?

    Volume does not always mean follow thru in a certain direction - although it is obvious that volume is buying and selling transactions.

    Why then, does volume only seem to work some of the time, and not all of the time?

    If you look at volume, more than price, then you may be heading up that wrong path, which is just what the BIG FAT ARSE CATS want you to do.

    I am not sure if I said the markets are "controlled" - but, the reality is that, those who can, will, and those who can't, won't!

    Personally, I think that trying to "analyze" volume / size is a futile effort, as,

    "anything can happen at any time in the markets"

    and that one time when your magical crystal ball is shining real bright, might just be that one time when "your balls are sucked back up into your abdomen" and they might even come out your mouth - milktruck gets the credit for that one:D
     
  472. Sir,

    You must fancy me some sort of guru – to reiterate – I am a dumbass redneck

    Ultimately you'll need to think this through – but to assist just a little

    You say “why aren’t they moving the markets”

    Have you ever tried herding cats – Well the same can be said for all the day traders in the world - all together they won’t move the market one iota


    You say “so if everyone thinks they are smarter then everyone else”

    Reread my response please


    ~90% fancies they are something – of this I am pretty certain

    A few know what the need to know, however still fewer – like my sort if you wish – know they are dumber than dirt

    But to be honest Sir – I like it that way.

    Take Care
     
  473. I better be careful or RT will give out to me:D

    I want to ask a question!

    Apart from me saying it - which is obvious - why do you think (if you do of course, if you don't then so be it) that I know something about trading, that other people do not know?

    And, if I do, what difference does it really make to you?

    I have already said that I will not mention the "real secret" - but I am not sure how many of you are aware that the "obvious" has been mentioned many times, indirectly, but still, many times.

    Sometimes I think I am the idiot, but, you know what, it really does not bother me, and that should be "obvious" by now:D
     

  474. Yes all things are possible

    However once upon a time - I was also an adolescent at recess:D
     

  475. I have got to quit drinking water as I'm reading - My keyboard will not take much more
     
  476. How about this one:D

    A-Wise-Monkey-In-Thought-Rubbing-His-Chin-And-Sitting-On-Top-Of-A-Stack-Of-Books-While-Gazing-At-A-Crystal-Ball-Showing-Him-Glimpses-Of-What-Is-To-Come

    [​IMG]
     
  477. This is one of those questions like the famous "What is the sound of one hand clapping?" that contain impossible presuppositions and are therfore meaningless.

    "The obvious" can't simultaneously be "not so obvious" because the obvious can't be less obvious than itself.

    There is no meaningful answer to your question as posed.

    Apologies to anyone who's already made this point.
     

  478. :D :D
     
  479. This is where I picked up all my secrets, as I went about my daily routine of cleaning the toilets:D

    [​IMG]
     
  480. But Mr. H, do you know "everything"!

    What if there was an answer?

    What if the answer is so simple that it will not be believed!

    I have not seen any responses to my questions regarding "childhood", and what children like most of all to do!

    There is always "someone" out there that just knows that little bit more, and as mentioned, it is that "little bit more" that can make that "big difference"!

    There is indeed an answer, but it will not be divulged for "obvious" reasons.
     
  481. I am surprised you use Roulette as an example for the market. Depending on whether the wheel has one or two zeros the house has the edge.

    If you play long enough the house odds will grind you down.

    Blackjack on the other hand is beatable by a skilled card counter.

    Poker is more like the market. You start each hand as a loser.

    Your anti and the house rake, like commissions and the spread, are lost before you start.

    In poker you play against other participants not the house. Emotions, not only yours but the other players, come into play.

    You are aware that anything can and will happen

    You shouldn’t expect to win every hand and you expect your winners to be larger than your losers.

    When you have a hand that has high odds of being a winner you stay with it and attempt to maximize your winnings.

    At the end of the game it’s how much you walk away with that counts, not the number of hands won or lost.

    You can not control the cards, only how you play them.
     
  482. I was giving details of what actually happened yesterday Boib - and yes, I am sure that if you were silly enough to keep playing against the house, then you will lose, as the odds are in the houses' favor.

    Your comparison is very good - but the reality is that trading is not any other type of gambling, it is unique and has its own "little things" that all different types of gambling have.

    The thing is, one needs to be smart enough to work out what those "little things" are.

    Anyway, the point is well known, if you are not in control, and are foolish enough to risk too much too often, then you will not last very long!

    And yes, I like being told that I could have been better, as that is what I try to do each and every day, better myself!

    Thanks again:D
     
  483. No, of course I don't know everything, but I do know something about grammar and logic and know that your question is self-invalidating at least insofar as grammar and logic are concerned.

    I'm sure there's an answer; I'm sure there is an endless number of answers but I don't see how any of those answers could be logical given that the question is not.

    "What if there was an answer?" - what if 6 turns out be 9? (J. Hendrix)
     
  484. With regards to risk, I would say that deciding where to place your stop when sizing up a trade and truely accepting the risk are two very different things.
     
  485. With all due respect Mr H, grammer has nothing to do with trading effectively:D

    As for logic, I prefer to look at is as "common sense" - which obviously, is not all that common.

    Of course there are endless numbers of answers, as there are endless numbers of traders, but there are but a very limited number of ways that one can make good money in the markets - and those ways are not so obvious to many, but are to a very small few.

    Let us not forget the reason why we trade - it is to make money.

    Anything that deflects your attention form that, well, is not worth the effort, but anything that assists with the bottom line, is indeed worth serious attention.

    The proff is, and always will be, the bank account details:D

    BTW, no one said that you are right or wrong, and no one should really care - in the same way that nobody should really care what I say, unless it helps them improve the bottom line of course:D

    Have a nice day.

    NY
     

  486. Howdy All,


    Before I begin

    1st - Boib – Great stock pick Sir – it’s serving well as an example

    2nd – Remember I don’t know a damn thing – so don’t assume I do


    Now with regards to ANF – whether you’re playing it or just playing along



    Did you pick up on why short would have possibly been the better path going into Monday

    Are you short – if not WHY – You are losing money

    Assuming you are short are you considering protecting the profit you’ve made – if not WHY

    Do you see why Boib picked 22.50 as “a” target – although it may not be the only target


    If confused please speak up – you may not get the answers you want, but I’m certain you will get the answers that serve you best


    BTW – Any thoughts about the “O”

    Take Care

    RN
     
  487.  
  488. Actually RN, and I have it righT this time:D, Boib might be on to a good thing here!

    This ANF looks like a good stock to trade - well correlated.

    If anyone decides to trade it, then let it be your own decision, not anyone else's.

    Looks like some trades have been filled - will check and update later.

    I also will do up a little picture to help get the "N" filled in - after all,

    "a picture paints a thousand words":D

    It should not take more than 10-20 minutes, will post it later on.
     
  489. Actually, as I absolutely detest holding overnight, although I do it some times:D , it really should make no difference to you unless the futures cause a BIG gap - and even if they do, you still have a good chance of getting back on the ladder, but it can get a little complicated if you are not in control!

    I know that RN and I trade differently, but it is funny how we both seem to see the same things!

    There are but a "limited" number of ways to take money from other traders - EFFECTIVELY!!
     
  490. Maybe the risk you decide to take should determine where you put your stop:eek:

    Then, as the risk is the enabler, it will control the trade, instead of the stop doing so:confused:

    But, if you are to let the risk decide, then it may be better to only put it on when the chances of losing are less than normal:mad:

    How do I determine when my chance of losing is less?

    Well, maybe if I think differently, and open my eyes, I might actually see something that I can relate to less risk:eek:

    Trading, it is a mugs game, really:D

    Maybe I should listen to the horn honker a bit more, for he seems to be an "expert" at showing what has transpired - another big thick idiot who is fooling people into parting with their money -he is no better than the people he cuts down, he is in fact, worse:p
     

  491. MMD,

    I will if needed – but first I would like to give folks a chance to dissect and post their views

    Because I too may learn something -

    Aside - One thing I know - Everyone in the world has something to teach me - if only I am willing to shut my mouth, open my ears/ mind and listen....


    In the meantime Sir may I suggest trying a little MTFA, for a few of the answers you ask.

    Also do you see any euphoria (akin to a two day drinking binge possibly) on a chart of ANF – I hate two day drinking binges as they have a tendency to bring about huge hangovers :)


    And the truth is I am not trading it... My primary playground consists of some commodity, financial, and tech/ internet stocks …

    But some things may be applied to all things, and can be use accordingly Sir

    Take Care
     
  492. NY
    Funny – not so me thinks Sir – after all we are after the same thing – so it makes good senses to end up there – together :)

    I have made it a rule to never hold overnight in my day trading account – SKF bit my butt last year when the Govt. outlawed shorting financials – on a Thursday night (Oh how well I remember that Friday) :eek:
     
  493. Oh yes RN - you see, many think that traders who make money never lose:eek:

    It is only when a trader HAS lost big money does he/she become a better trader - aka, experience!

    This one you will like, I think:D

    Here is an image of a process that works - in order to open the file, one must first come up with the "password".

    If someone wants to alter, or print the document, then they must come up with another password:D

    Sure if I just gave everyone the document outright, I would be acknowledging that they are unable to think, and that is a very rude thing to do!

    [​IMG]
     


  494. :D :D :D
     
  495. As a test for awareness, if you know the password then please do not say it - but you can say you "got it", if you like!

    If you "get it", you can ask what you like, and who knows, maybe you might learn something of value, and maybe you won't, either way it is entirely up to you:D
     

  496. Sir

    I will never be a fool - whilst I am going to the Bank
     
  497. That was extremely quick RN, but then again, it is only the "Art Collectors" and "the Big artists", that can really see what value is in the painting:D

    To return to my subject, there is nothing like alluring the appetite and
    affections; otherwise you make nothing but so many asses laden with
    books; by dint of the lash, you give them their pocketful of learning to
    keep; whereas, to do well you should not only lodge it with them, but
    make them espouse it.
     
  498. According to pic, "more like level-handed".

    NYSE, you daytrade stocks with no overnight holds right?
     
  499. A well balanced answer, GB :)

    I think, and it is just my way of thinking, that one might be better off to trade what ever has the least amount of risk, with a good possibility of a decent payout!

    Who gives a damn what "market" it is - it can be bananas for all I care, once the ground is not covered with skins:D

    But - just in case some read it wrong, some "markets" are more manipulated than others, so it is also wise to know a little bit about who you are gambling against, before you decide to place your bets!
     
  500. Obvious but not obvious:

    1. The root of success/failure is yourself.

    2. Noise is your friend, and your enemy. Never fight your friend, but fight your enemy.

    3. Do not seek opportunity in an instrument, but seek an instrument that has the opportunity.

    4. Repetition can be a virtue

    5. The best party to join is one where you have proof that eveyone is happy.
     
  501. Before I turn in tonight I wanted to add something about ANF


    I could see some “happy go lucky’s” shorting this stock tomorrow – just based on what’s been posted – DON’T


    A couple of things

    1.) Price going from A to B is seldom a straight line

    2.) This is a short week (Friday is a holiday) so tomorrow may be a bit tricky, or not – I do not know


    If you’re not in – Don’t get in – Please let’s use this as an example to learn from

    If you are in – Trade it - protect your profit / minimize your loss– but don't be stubborn or stupid

    AND... Please do not assume anything about where price may or may not go

    Good Night All
    RN
     
  502. Out of those five words of wisdom, there is one that surpasses all the others, and, I bet that most will get it wrong!

    To me, and a few more, it is as "obvious" as the day is bright, and the night is dark!

    Very good post RFT - much better than some of the "stuff" I have posted:D
     
  503. Very good point RN - as this baby can go either way, at any time!

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=anf,P
     
  504. I would go with:

    2. Noise is your friend, and your enemy. Never fight your friend, but fight your enemy.

    Nyse, would you agree that noise is your friend when it appears to most as their enemy and vice versa?
     
  505. *Noise is the progenetor of No-noise.
    - Which is still not the 'N' word.
    Have you tried your hand at mystery novels, nyse?
     
  506. Yes - since I was born:D
     
  507. My nose is my friend, as it is always right there in front of me, sometimes like piniccio:D

    There are only 5 lines to choose from - choose wisely, and think before you choose.

    All is never what it seems to be, to those who do not take the time to think, when ever they look!
     
  508. 3. The art of war, then, is governed by five
    constant factors, to be taken into account in one’s deliberations,
    when seeking to determine the conditions
    obtaining in the field.

    4. These are:
    (1) The Moral Law;
    (2) Heaven;
    (3) Earth;
    (4) The Commander;
    (5) Method and discipline.

    5,6. The Moral Law causes the people to be in complete
    accord with their ruler, so that they will follow
    him regardless of their lives, undismayed by any danger.
    :eek: :eek: :eek:
     
  509. Thanks for the MTFA suggestion.

    On the 2-day binge Sir, I think someone wants it to last a little longer, but what do I know?


    Thanks and regards
     
  510. From the flowchart, my guess for N is

    N = no confirmation/ no following through
     
  511. I guess I have riled a few:D

    Well, as I am not trading today, for personal reasons, I will try and rile a few more before I head off:D

    No names though, that is bad manners:D

    I like it when idiots pop their heads up - especially the ones who think they know everything:p

    I GOT YOUR PDF PASS WITH BRUTE FORCE
    no not really

    I tried 5 programs to crack it but I would need to buy them, so fuck it

    I just wanna tell you

    you are such a little fuck, a scalper for pennies which means you'll never have 20 k days with little effort

    you stay in your little world, scalping and making 200-500 a day

    and you are probably just an actor on ET like all the others

    MARKET IS RANDOM, there you go, you learned something from me (a bored trader)

    MARKET IS RANDOM, remember that grasshopper