I've been thinking about APRN for a while now and I can't believe anyone buying this stock even $3/share. I usually don't short stocks but I have a small short position on this one. If you are long & bullish, please let me know why. Thanks.
I wouldn't play either side of this one myself, but WMT could pick this one up for its trademarks in a tit-for-tat with Amazon would be one risk to this I see. Another would be a short squeeze. Some nice option plays on this one though.
The squawk on APRN seems to be... (1) margins too low, and (2) operating expenses too high. So.... where's the fair value price??
They have $342m of pro forma cash. At least $140m of Capex for 17, 18 and they are losing at least $25-30m a quarter on operating level for foreseeable future. They possibly have to raise capital in the next few quarters. Margins are also going down. I value this business at 1.4x my 2017 gross profit estimate of $356m or $3.26/share.
Wow, Amazon meal kits is already live and it's sold out. APRN days could be numbered now! http://uk.businessinsider.com/amazon-fresh-blue-apron-knock-off-is-live-2017-7?r=US&IR=T
People who use the apron service are probably buying it. Just like the people who went long Krisy Kreme donuts (KKD) - they were probably the ones eatting that crap daily for breakfast lunch and dinner.
I bashed it day 1 when it was still >10 (not here, elsewhere) What's the point in coming in now with this?