No great answer on this one for me. I think I just find myself more comfortable with /es than spx. i like the trading hours on /es as I can trade it overnight as well. I also like the day of straddle strategy in corn, wheat, and beans. But alas TW doesn't have the grain weeklies so I have to wait for them every 28 days and TW is missing the softs as they don't want to offer ICE products due to the data costs.
Why? You think I am giving free money away? Kidding aside, when the expected move is > IV buying ATM calls can be very profitable.
May I ask what is your win rate and expectancy? I generally found playing earning didn't work out too well. Most of the time it was priced in. I had better luck playing other special events.
Curious to the answer to this as well. I haven't found a good strategy around earnings yet. I like the IV is juiced for flies and taking advantage of that on an expiration day before earning earlier the next week. But outside of that i haven't figured it out.
Certain stocks show a bullish momentum leading into earnings. You buy the options before earnings they build in oval helps offset some of the theta decay and you sell the day before earrings so you are not hurt by the vol crush
Imagine one guy wants to buy carrots but is selling oranges, peaches are cheap as nobody wants them. Same deal with options -don't think of them in isolation. The market is massive, and someone is looking for a peach, a carrot and he has a big order for his overpriced oranges. Like open interest it means nothing in and of itself, but at times you will see time-stamped trades that obviously correspond, and you spend a week trying to figure out what that trade is, not undertanding there are other positions at different expiries. Options are NOT boring.