So everyone is buying the thing, paying increasingly top-dollar for it. As we've seen, the only drops of any note were due to really major events like China poo-pooing on it earlier in the year, and forking news. And BTC passed those tests as the price recovered very quickly, relatively speaking. Other than things like that it has nowhere to go but up. So what possible situation would cause the price to drop a large percentage, say 30-50%, and STAY THERE? IBKR has probably the largest number of future account holders of any broker out there (maybe even in the whole world?), and they won't allow shorting. So any IBKR customer who wants to get into the thing is going to have to buy. That should add even more fuel to the long frenzy for at least the first month of the quarterly cycle. With that in mind, it doesn't seem like others, from other brokers, would be wise to short against the long tide. All things considered, what could possibly moderate BTC's price at this point? Hell, in theory the theft/destruction/loss of thousands of bitcoins should drive the price even higher since there would be less total coins available. Thoughts?
Maybe the Federal Reserve Bank asked for the contract to be listed, the CME had no plans in September, so they can sell 4000 contracts at market like they do in gold futures. That is the only bearish argument I can think of. If bitcoin was a commodity higher prices would lead to more supply but only a new crypto can be invented that no one has heard of and does not have a futures contract. Link to detailed article from FT with $47,000 price target. https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/12...when-bitcoins-market-cap-overtakes-world-gdp/
On monthly basis have never seen a chart like BTC. In past few days the ATR i.e. range has picked up by quite a bit so top should be near.
"What will subdue Bitcoin?" Bitcoin is overwhelmingly a "long-only" market at the moment. Once futures and options eventually start trading, institutional money will be able trade BTC from both the long and the short side. I believe this has the best chance of slowing BTC down.
Lack of fuel to burn: homes, food and medicine. A better alternative that is not an uncontrollable beast that may consume the planet. Honesty, integrity and empathy in proponents. Renewed interest in safety, robustness and self-preservation.
If the currency is designed to appreciate the more people own it and more people want to own it on the expectation it will continue to appreciate, at what point does this stop happening? Even when it has its big corrections, the expectation is it will continue to surge. What are the limiting factors? At what point does this concept of 'appreciation by design' and the 'network effect' reach a limit?