What will form?

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Autodidact, Mar 25, 2015.

  1. Autodidact

    Autodidact

    In this modest journal I intend to post charts of incomplete patterns with several potential outcomes.

    The following chart of NDX Daily suggests:

    A triangle could form.

    A downtrending pennant could form, subsequently a bull flag could form.

    When one can successfully predict the outcome of a pattern formation in progress great profits can be achieved.

    P1.png
     
  2. A potential shortening of downward thrusts before a move to the upside.
     
  3. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Or, since this is mean-reverting . . .

    upload_2015-3-25_20-13-37.png

    The lines come from the weekly chart.

    Something else to consider, though this is probably too easy:

    upload_2015-3-25_20-21-7.png
     
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2015
  4. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    I'm not really into predicting like that. I just trade my time frame until it makes sense to go the other way. So I don't know. Right now, I am short. What do you think will form?
     
  5. Autodidact

    Autodidact

    P1A.png
    Predicting what will form is much easier vs predicting how a complete pattern will proceed.

    My bet is a triangle attempt will form, meaning, a HL will plot, if that "breaks" then a downtrend channel to complete the missing 4th pivot.

    Eventually, I expect NDX to make all time highs but even before we breakout I expect to be loaded with profits, so I can escape any breakout games, breakout trading is far from my game.

    Will they come via Triangle breakout to the upside?

    Will they come via Bull Flag Pennant breakout ?

    Will they come via Bull Flag Pennant breakdown and eventually morph into an inverse head and shoulder with the fakedown being a head?

    I don't know those answers yet, but land ANY of those predictions and you got yourself a killer risk reward trade allowing you to be wrong much more often than right, and make ample rewards.
     
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2015
  6. Autodidact

    Autodidact

    NQ Futures 24 hours 240min Timeframe

    Possible Formations

    - Downtrend Channel
    - Pennant
    - If it breaksdown, inverse head and shoulder

    p2.png
     
  7. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    I'll point out that price overnight reached and penetrated the "mean" line that I drew in my post above. This has its own implications. But you seem not to have any interest in Auction Market Theory. Sorry to intrude. :)
     
  8. Autodidact

    Autodidact

    NQ Futures 24 hours 240min Timeframe

    The 4th pivot did not offer exact support in the move down as a lot of games and stop hunts are executed in these key areas.

    However there is a potential backtest of an old downtrend line that could act as support for a failed breakdown of the formation, should it decide to go down further.

    Will update as new data plots within the upcoming days.

    p2a.png
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2015
  9. Autodidact

    Autodidact

    NQ Futures 24 hours 240min Timeframe Update

    Area selected turned out to be the LOD

    P2b.png
     
  10. Autodidact

    Autodidact

    NQ Futures 24 hours 240min Timeframe Update

    Pennant Pivot remains support.

    Possible Formations:

    Pennant Completion
    Bull Flag Completion
    Inverse Head and Shoulder should pennant break down

    Areas of Interest for next week:

    Potential Resistance lines in dashed-red
    Potential Support line in dashed-blue
    Future Areas to examine in blue

    p3.png
     
    #10     Mar 28, 2015
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