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What do you see grain prices in the next 12 months

  1. I don’t know about the grain fundamental, but the relatively low prices these days attracts my attention. DBA (an agriculture ETF based equally on wheat, corn, soybean and sugar futures contracts) for example, went from $43 12 months ago to now around $24 (see the price chart). What do you grain traders see the prices or trend for the grains in the next 12~18 months or so?

    Thanks!
     
  2. next 12 months...hmmm..I dont usually speculate out that far. $3.00 corn (with spikes down to 2.50), $7 beans (yes I know...a little higher than the normal bean/corn ratio), $4 Wheat, and $10 rice...hell if I know on the sugar

    Btw....if you are trading DBA, don't concern yourself with any other price than the July board...DBA rolls July to July in the pits.
     
  3. First of all read Mr Michael Masters report on commodity speculators (2008) .
     
  4. TraderTX, Cygnus, thanks for the info.

    I’ll look further into the individual grain prices and the related comments. Hope we catch the price at the low range :)
     
  5. lower.....The Gartman Letter is pretty good for speculation; In addition, Bloomberg will allow you to query past supply/demand data to make your own opinion.
     
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  7. Grain ETF DBA seems to have a nice technical breakout in the last two days from its recent price range. Hope this price move is sustainable.

    Is there any fundamental news or speculation lately?
     
  8. Weekly Corn looks good for a bull run
     
  9. Except for Rice, where there is real demand - the bull runs in most grains are ineversely proportional to dollar collapse :D
     

  10. I can't help but to really like selling corn at these levels again (I already have a position) There is a ton of corn in the bins from last year and the farmers are going to have to dump it soon.


    I got to thinking yesterday, we break to decade lows in the indices but we can't get below 2006 corn prices? The commercial support that helped these last two weeks could be absent on anotherleg down, I think we see 2's by Dec.
     
  11. Yeah, unfortunately so.
     
  12. Dec E Corn has got some solid overhead resistance at the 400 level. That's the sweet spot.
     
  13. Yeah I would agree, I'm spread v oats but if I wasn't I wouldn't be seling corn down here I'd wait til we saw the 4's again more than likely.
     
  14. How tough is it to put an oat spread on (slippage, effort, etc.)??
     
  15. From a seasonal perspective, corn and soybean prices tend to trend down this time of year until harvest, unless we get a drought.

    http://www.spectrumcommodities.com/education/commodity/charts/c.html

    http://www.spectrumcommodities.com/education/commodity/charts/s.html

    The large commercial interests, like General Mills are relatively long corn, wheat and soybeans, but tend to buy when prices are declining. Commercial buying is most helpful to signal a buy when price is in an uptrend. Currently, corn, wheat and beans are trending down.

    Corn, wheat and soybeans are at strong resistance and all 3 are overbought on the daily charts with dojis on the corn and bean charts, suggesting a possible short-term decline.

    Historically, corn, wheat and DBA are very cheap and seem like a good investment. The question is how confident you are in calling the bottom.

    Fundamentally, commodities are going to soar as inflation manifests and accelerates, so DBA seems like a good investment long term.

    Although the above signals are a bit mixed, DBA is historically cheap and is making higher lows and higher highs. The smart money (commercial interests) are long corn, wheat and beans. And everyone seems to think food prices are going to soar due to increased demand from China and a falling dollar. Sugar is also part of DBA and is in a strong up-trend.

    In the long run, DBA looks like a good buy, but you never know about the short term. Another pullback to support at about $24 or a breakout above $28.87 would certainly be buy signals to consider.
     
  16. DrPepper, thanks for the info and comments regarding seasonal factor and DBA. Good post.

    Pricewise, DBA chart seems to have a breakaway gap two days ago but pulled back slightly today. Let’s see if it can hold on to the current level in the coming days. If not, then we may have another opportunity to pick up the shares at a better price later.

    Please post your comments and update when you have a chance.