http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfun...ill-fall-42-in-12-months/?mod=BOL_hp_blog_fof http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=WETF+Key+Statistics http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=wetf Trade: With WETF at 12.07 Jan '17 16.75/21.75 bear call spread for a net credit of $50 Yield = 50/450 = 11.1% in 303 days or 13.4% annualized Prob = 81% Expectation = .81(50) - .08(450) - .11(225) = 40.5 - 36 - 24.8 = -20.3 Price......... Profit / Loss........... ROM % 9.05................. 50.00............. 11.10% 12.00............... 50.00............. 11.10% 15.00............... 50.00............. 11.10% 16.75............... 50.00............. 11.10% 17.25................. 0.00............... 0.00% 19.86............. (261.00)........... -52.20% 21.75............. (450.00)........... -88.90% 25.00............. (450.00)........... -88.90% 30.00............. (450.00)........... -88.90%