Weekly Trading Update (December 9, 2011)

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Ituglobal, Dec 9, 2011.

  1. “…We know that in trading, regardless of how sweet a set-up appears, it’s merely a game of probabilities. So if your position doesn’t work out like you planned it to, then don’t just sit there and await the inevitable. Your first loss is always your smallest! Better to take the position off, stand aside and wait for the conditions to suit you. As the saying goes, “Better be on the side-lines wishing you were on a good move than stuck in a bad move wishing you were on the side-lines.” – Paul Wallace


    Paul Wallace, featured in my last Weekly Trading Update, would also be featured today (This is because our mindset/psychology has the greatest impact on our trading results). He explains that there’s nothing that says you’ve to stay and fight when the probabilities are against you. Running away bravely in order to fight another day is usually the sensible move. If you find that you’ve been ambushed, wherever possible it’s better to bug out, withdraw and re-group… Sometimes the disengagement from battle will give you a broader perspective and ability to make more clear-headed choices… We’ve seen the enemy and it’s us. Nowhere is this adage more prevalent than in trading. Whilst you’re in competition with all the other traders on the planet, ultimately the biggest battle you’ll face in trading (and in life) is the one with yourself. That screen is your evil twin. It’ll try and tempt you with all sorts of trouble, impulsive trades, over-trading, over-leveraging, doubling-up, the whole gamut of reckless mistakes. You’ll learn more about yourself when live trading than perhaps any other business activity. Do you really know your weakness? Have you sat down and analyzed your results, behaviors and actions? This can be the point when many traders decide to give up. They don’t like what they find. They know in their hearts that they’ve seen the enemy, it was them, and they don’t like what they saw.

    Below is the summary of some of my trading activities this week.

    Primary Trend: Bearish
    This week, the movement on this pair has been characterized by consolidation. The market doesn’t look sexy at the present, and as such it’s better to stay away from it until it becomes attractive.

    Primary trend: Bearish
    The outlook on this pair looks similar to that of the AUDUSD. The bearish outlook, nevertheless, may be rendered invalid if the next outbreak is bullish. Then the trader could try to find a suitable entry, but should certainly not misuse his carte blanche; as it’s typical of gamblers.

    Primary trend: Bullish
    This market is still in a sideways move. The SMA 50 is above the SMA 200, and the price is moving sideways along the former. The RSI 14 is hovering around the level 50 – indicating a sideways move. Plus the Stochastic 14,3,5 is trying to go into an oversold region.. The scenario is quite similar to what happened last week. Could this be a scalper’s paradise?

    Primary trend: Bearish
    It seems the price on this cross is trying to find an equilibrium before it continues its journey downwards. I don’t think the EUR has any chance against the CAD at the present. This is evidenced by the historical data of the market. The candles on your screen represent the footprints of buyers and sellers.

    Primary trend: Bearish
    The bears’ domination has just been started on this cross, and this may be the beginning of a long-term bearish run. The SMA 50 is now below the SMA 200, while the price is below the former. The ADX 20 has crossed below the level 30, showing that the market is trying to find some equilibrium before it continues its journey. -DI is still above +DI, indicating that the bears are still strong. A bearish continuation is more probable.

    Primary trend: Bullish
    Bears have no chance on this instrument. Sellers, beware! There have been several bullish breakouts in the market. Plus this may continue if the resistance at 1.4550 proves to be ineffectual. Could it go up or down? The answer lies in small position sizing, as an ambidextrous trader doesn’t care whether it goes up or down. .If you peed into your pants because a position had run negative, then your risk (position sizing) was too high.

    Conclusion: Paul Wallace states conclusively that you’ve paid for your trading experience in time, energy or money (probably all 3); it’s your responsibility to draw as much educational value from your experience as possible. What could be improved, what you did well and what will you do next time? You’ll find that in high performance environments, being able to stand up and debrief your mistakes is a great way to ensure that the learning process is shared and strengthened. The likelihood of that mistake happening again decreases.

    A quote from Joe Ross ends this article:

    “There is an axiom of trading that is difficult to accept: sometimes the markets work the way you would expect, and sometimes they don't. Most people have a belief that the world works in a highly predictable way. It's hard to accept the reality that life outcomes are uncertain. We never really know what will happen next. What events impact the price of whatever you are trading, and how will the masses react? What events did we forget to consider?”

    Your questions and opinions are highly welcome.

    Thank you.

    With best regards,

    Azeez Mustapha