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Weekly Poll: When Does Xmas Rally Start?

  1. this rally must be a sure thing if it has a name of its own. when does it suppose to start? there are two weeks until Xmas and 3 weeks until New Year.

    maybe it has started already on Dec 1st. this is all very confusing....
     
  2. Could start any time or might not start at all. The last week of the year has the highest odds of being bullish.
     
  3. Your question says "when does it start" but your poll asks "bullish, bearish" etc. One's a time question the other's a position they don't even go together. Maybe rephrase your question or the poll?
     
  4. the poll layout is always the same every week. i am trying to discriminate them by title names. otherwise we would have many plain threads "Weekly Poll". i agree that the titles are often bogus but that's the best i can do.
     
  5. Gee fellas, 67 handles in a week and a half, too bad the xmas rally hasn't started yet. Man, what do you call the last 200 points in the last few months. Waiting for the rally in a market that never goes down, amazing.
     
  6. http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/i...ntiment-signal-a-coming-bear-market/19754497/

    Could Bullish Investor Sentiment Signal a Coming Bear Market?

    Drawn from Investors Intelligence data, the first chart shows that the percentage of bulls now exceed the peak that marked the precise top of the 2010 rally in early May. From that peak, stocks swooned more than 10% in the next few months.

    [​IMG]

    In the last three and a half years, the only higher peak occurred in late 2007. That data point alone should give bulls pause.
     
  7. I'm bullish but the market is overbought. I'm not guessing when it will reverse but the $ looks strong so that's something to worry about.
     
  8. Economic indicators are very strong in emerging markets. I don't see a descent at all. I find it interesting how many people overthink their positions now as we enter what is historically the best time to own stocks, just after we finally broke a major area of resistance on the US indexes.

    I'm not sure why people fear making money.
     
  9. People fear losing money. [​IMG]
     
  10. +1
    "as we enter what is historically the best time to own stocks"
     
  11. I don't have one, I don't forecast.
     
  12. i am confused about China. if they do tighten rates, is this bad only for the Chinese market or is it bad for the US market as well? SPY is climbing non-stop so the pending Chinese news must be a good thing, right?

    "Stock markets braced for Chinese interest rate rise

    • Inflation rose from 4.4% in October to 5.1% in November
    • Chinese exports climbed 34.9% in November..."
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/12/china-economy-inflation-interest-rates
     
  13. No rate hike apparently; to be honest the "bad for the markets" talk was way overdone the fact is their "problem" stems from a successful, growing economy. How can that ever be bad for markets long term ?

    Shorts are running out of reasons. Many companies are raising dividends already as their cash reserves are getting way too high. The "non-stop SPY" climb is still fairly modest for 2010 given we are only in the second year of a bull market.

    I presume you will only become a believer in this bull market when its almost done. That's the way markets work. Will you be still posting short calls until the year 2012 when we top out ?
     
  14. i can't predict the market even short-term, why should i venture in predicting it 1 year from now?
     
  15. When the market is only going one way, one person gets soooo excited that he thinks it can just keep going one way, thats right cramer thinks the market is headed up, up, up. So all you raging bulls have no worry, you have cramer backing you up in this hyped up bull market.


    Cramer on Friday afternoon 12/10/10 said:


    """This one is a "RAGING" bull NOT an aging bull!!!!!"""

    """""""I do NOT think we've seen the highs for the year!!!!
    Thats right this market still has room to run!!!!!!""""""""

    """This true bull market is just getting started!"""

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  16. thank you for posting this. this reminds me of his Apr 2010 super-bullish call. could Cramer be wrong at the exact top this time again? i guess this is unlikely.

    BTW the future are dumping hard this fine Sunday evening 1238.00 -3.00
     

  17. no problem, Yea the futures were sinking about an hour ago with the nasdaq futures down around 4.5 but now they are back up into positive territory, keep in mind that tomorrow will make it 9 straight days in a row of positive closes if the nasdaq is up.
     
  18. Buddy, how can you look at a 3 point drop on futures that occurs 12 hours before open and call it "dumping hard" ? What I see is Hang Seng up more then 200 points, Europe green, Copper looking extremely bullish ( a very good leading indicator of US market direction in 2010 ).
     
  19. Futures bright green and oil futures even GREENER this morning, nasdaq going for 9 straight up days in a row.

    As for oil I paid over $3.35 for "REGULAR", premium is already over $3.50 near me. With the cold air pushing into most of the US over the next 2 days I wouldn't doubt to see oil climb above $90 and the average price of gas nationwide jump 5-10 cents over the next 2 weeks. At this rate $4.00 gas is coming soon, wouldn't doubt $100 oil by the time the SPX gets to 1300+.
     
  20. I was wrong last week, and I do feel like I've lost my mojo, as it were.
    Still, I'm looking at the continuing large drops in all the vol indices and thinking there's got to be some sort of consolidation here somewhere. We've gone from bullish to wildly bullish to completely inane (or perhaps insane), which is fairly typical for a run-up of course; for a sell-off, just replace bullish with bearish, and you'd have where we were just prior to takeoff the day after Labor Day. Anyway, this is the part where you quote Keynes re irrational markets & solvency...
    GDX is treating me nice, but even there I think I'm taking profits today. Sentiment is just getting completely out of hand.
     
  21. today will be 10th straight up day for nasdaq.

    Bottom line is all people are bullish, and no one want to sell at this moment. As I mentioned in my another post, if you are one of those underperformance and late- to- come into market fund manager, do you want to sell now and look like an idiot next year ? Or you prefer to go in market NOW and LONG as much as you can ?

    So my conclusion is today will be the 10th UP day for Nasdaq.
     
  22. A great big downleg will send a nice thrill up my leg. [​IMG]
     
  23. any top calls here? SPY 124.97
     
  24. A lower high would be nice. [​IMG]
     
  25. This is called the quarterly expiration squeeze. All the y have to do is keep the foot on the gas till friday morning, and it all goes away. You can see that someone is trying to hold them up here, unless its just shorts scrambling all over themseves. Just one big squeeze over and over and over again. That is todays market. There are so few players that you dont get the two sided action we used to get. I have troubles getting filled on 10 lots, I can only imagine what it would be like to get filled on 15k contracts a day like I used to trade.
     
  26. This is where the buy-hi-sell-lo, set-your-stop-loss bunch comes in. [​IMG]
     
  27. FED announcement in 14 mins!!!!!!!!!!!!


    Get ready for some afternoon volatility.

    The dow has been up 70 points for the last 3 hours and hasn't moved since.

    go figure
     
  28. Think the market is getting ready for the same boring dribble bubble ben bernanke always says.

    Keep buying.
     
  29. Oh my god. This guy is positively nuts. "This market has barely budged for the past month!". What the F.
     
  30. may explain why he is so bullish...
     
  31. Indeed thanks for explaining the pun.
     
  32. you are welcome!

    did not think it was intended [​IMG]
     
  33. I never said it was intended :) We'll never know for sure.
     
  34. then we are still friends, right? [​IMG]
     
  35. Yes dear.

    To stay on-topic my view on the markets is that they will range from this point within the action of the last week and a half with possible although unlikely 2-3% more upside.
     
  36. NASDAQ up 9 out of 10 days so far in december. Up about 5%, I think thats a santa claus rally unless the greedy bulls think they deserve more!!!
     
  37. the bulls deserve more!

    i must say that i am tired of feeling stupid due to being bearish. it just does not pay to be a bear in this rigged market. even my best lucky charm does not work any more:

    [​IMG]
     
  38. We must be near the top. When the last bear is out of the door....

    I'm still bearish (although as I mentioned in another thread I am long anyway because my long-term bearishness should not mean I cannot make any money ;)
     
  39. due to the minor sell-off, they will probably release some bullish news AH. Something like that: "Ben pledges $20K out of his own pocket to support the market."
     
  40. Look how the market just floats higher into the close, I think that 2:30 sell off of about 4 s$p points was the buying opportunity for the rest of the year!!!!
     
  41. eurusd at 1.3211. I want to flip a burger from short to long side. I prefer to flip at 1.3202, but the market is not even touching 1.3208, and has been near it for more than an hour now.

    What do you think I should do?
     
  42. You could be right!!!!
     
  43. For rest of week, is the bear in that big's clothes?
     
  44. The above post was made 5 minutes before 5PM. Less than few minutes, buyers showed up and started moving the price higher. Look at the chart.

    Has it been influenced by readers of Shortie's thread?
     
  45. No need for fake news.

    Manufacturing numbers were very strong this morning, plus inflation was tiny again ( contrary to what one might surmise on this site ). Countering the good news was the Spain downgrade although I suspect this was somewhat expected. Minor selling today was just normal ebb and flow of a bull market. My own trades all rose on the good news and I sold at a nice profit my biggest trade ( 400% profit on a swing trade in less then two weeks ).

    Tommorrow, we have three key reports. The Philly Index was the main reason we continued rallying a month ago. New report at 10 am. Also of interest are the jobless claims this is the one area lagging in the US recovery. Any drop could kick start the market higher as well.
     
  46. You think inflation is bad for stocks?
     
  47. i hope we will manage to crash some more!
     
  48. Man up a bit. Are you even a real bear?

    We're going to lose at least 20% from this point sometime in the near future (2011) and you're already excited? :p
     
  49. Bring up this post end of next year. I'll go on record now that we will not drop 20% from today's levels at any point in 2011. I expect the next correction will be during the summer of 2012.

    That being said, I like going short in January if we can rally into the year end like we usually do. I believe resources stocks could correct at some point soon. Its not a bubble yet but the move up has been too fast.

    I'm neither a bull or a bear. I'm a trader. The more trends we get the easier it is to make money. Most of 2010 was not a great trading time period, but the last quarter has been great.
     
  50. Do you remember what I wrote about spy 125? and QQQQ 56?
    I believe a possible rise in EUR/USD, and with it a possible rise-to-stabilization in stocks.

    What do you think of selling straddles?

    My views were:

    1. The retreat from 122.50 area to 117 area (took place).

    2. A rise (took place).


    3. On day twelve after the top of 1, a retreat ( too place).

    4. Then a rise to eventually kiss 125. (took place).

    5. Retreat from 125 (just took place), BUT the market is not set for a hard fall if it first needs to set itself. There is the possibility of a surprise down move, but I do not see the catalyst. To set itself, makets have multiple ways to do it, one of which a little-rise-to-horizontal move.

    When do earnings start? My guess is that if earnings would be bad, the market will hold until they come to sell off. If earnings would be good, then market might have to retreat to rise "due to earnings".
     
  51. 125 to 124 is a small retreat. i am hoping for some more. many bulls are around.

    maybe you are right that we won't crash until we rise some more on vapors.

    earnings are in a month.
     
  52. Yesterday was the buying opportunity of the rest of december, the markets so far have yet to have any meaningful pullback. Today the nasdaq will be up 10 out of 12 trading days in december, more than 80% of the time. There is no risk in this market.
     
  53. EUR/USD has risen and is now at 1.3327. Difference: +115pips, or $1150 on one lot. Is it now time that they would take the profits, and wait for a retreat to consider a possible re-entry on long side at a retreat?
     
  54. Waw.. Quick fall to 1.3285, or 42 pips. Would buyers appear at this level and below?
     
  55. Nasdaq having another great week, and for the month its up 11 out of 13 (84% of the time) days!!!!! Imagine if it was down 84% of the time in the last 13 days, whewww, they would be on QE4 by now!!!!!

    Risk free money as they say!!
     
  56. I am wondering what your thoughts have become based on the hindsight and the views you seem to have had before Thursday?
     
  57. I am surprised you viewed things as rise, I would say it is rather flat.