Waterfall selloff coming on the SPY $SPX=1430

Discussion in 'Trading' started by michaelscott, Jul 10, 2007.

  1. This series of lower highs and lower lows will not continue much longer. Target price is going to be 1430 with any break under 1484. I can only think the SPY will go lower in the days to come and I am very short.
     
  2. Rugby

    Rugby

    Michael-

    Still short RIMM GOOG AAPL? What are you short?
     
  3. I thought you were in 100% cash?
    :confused:
     
  4. empee

    empee

    i think we bounce at S&P 1490, potentially to new highs.
     
  5. jtnet

    jtnet

    i knew this was the thread of a stock_turder or michael scott
     
  6. spooz new highs soon

    michael is a putz who never follows up on his picks.
     
  7. The 61.8% retracement of the recent up move from the early July lows comes in at 1503. I believe that we will hold that area and make a LOW in the next day or two that will take prices back up to the 1534 SPX level.
     
  8. I copied this chart from TraderTim's website. This says exactly what I am thinking. The greater amount of times a price tests a certain point and the longer the price stays in a certain range, then the more explosive the outcome will be.

    In this case, the SPX has been stuck in this range for over a month and the trend line has been tested twice and going for round 3.

    Another indicator is the following:

    Goldman Sachs . . . GS . . . . -$5.90 -2.64%
    Morgan Stanley . . . MS . . . . -$2.20 -3.03%
    Merryll Lynch . . . MER . . . . -$3.02 -3.54%
    Lehman Brothers . . LEH . . . -$2.20 -3.03%
    Bear Stearns . . . BSC . . . . -$5.93 -4.12%
    Amex . . . AXP . . . . . . . . -$2.14 -3.43%
    CitiCorp . . . C . . . . . . . . -$0.60 -1.163%
    JP Morgan Chase . . JPM . . .-$1.28 -2.62%
    Bank of America . . . BAC . . -$0.45 -0.92%

    The financials are taking it on the chin lately, not a good sign.

    The market is seperating itself. In fact, the following is very telling:

    Russell Value 1000- -1.63%
    Russell Value 2000- -2.01%
    Rusell Mid-Cap Value- -1.55%
    Russell 3000 Value- -1.66%

    Russell 1000- -1.4%
    Russell 2000- -1.85%
    Russell Mid-Cap- -1.4%
    Russell 3000- -1.44%

    Russell Growth 1000- -1.18%
    Russell Growth 2000- -1.69%
    Russell Growth Mid-Cap- -1.28%
    Russell Growth 3000- -1.23%

    The pattern emerging is that value is out and growth is in. The SPX is now a value oriented index and will fall. Value stocks tend to fall much more slowly then their growth counterparts.

    I maintain my price target on the SPX at 1430 and longer term target of 1130.

    On pullbacks, buy mid-cap growth and dump value at every opportunity.

    The number of mindless idiots and losing traders in this thread demonstrates to me that my prediction will come true very shortly.
     
  9. Isn't this just the usual week-before-options-expiration-week temporary downturn?
     
  10. Uh huh...and you made that prediction last time and it broke through and you were gone. I hope you leave for good this time if it breaks. :D
     
    #10     Jul 11, 2007