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Watch out potential crash alert

  1. "Watch out potential crash alert"
    From: harrytrader2000
    Date: Tue Dec 17, 2002 9:18 am
    Subject: Watch out potential crash alert

    An american site have been publishing each year crash alert signal

    They sometimes gave false signal that's why we have built our own
    crashindex that would confirm or not their signal.

    See http://perso.wanadoo.fr/harrytrader/crashindex_131202.gif
    after Friday

    and http://perso.wanadoo.fr/harrytrader/crashindex_141202.gif
    after yesterday

    Near -5 our index means a potential rally, under -6 potential crash
    alert. When after reaching +6, the index fall again under 5 it means
    potential top.

    Friday the crashindex index approached the -5 level. We saw a logical
    rally Monday but we are now in negative territory so watch out the -6
    signal if it ever happens.

  2. Harry,

    This may be good, but does Baron know you are peddling your products here? :)
  3. Quick, tell Baron about it...:D
  4. Sorry if I have made something wrong ? My post I supposed will be erased then :)

  5. http://perso.wanadoo.fr/harrytrader/crashindex_191202.gif

    Nevertheless be careful weekly target is at 8275 calcultaed from last Friday close so there is rest for a little downside potential since we made a low of about "only" 8300:


    P.S.: crashindex is totally independant from my "fondamental" model for predicting tops and bottoms. It's just a stochastic indicator that I use since 1997 to follow crash cycle in conjunction with Pittbul's crash indicator.
  6. posting graphs, giving some info OK.
    don't ask people to join your group from here and everyone will be happy.
  7. I just alert people and it's free. If you don't like it ok, I will quit this COMMERCIAL FORUM.

    Bye !

    P.S: I intended to buy advertisment here but I think that finally I won't do so.

  8. I bet you did, Panama Red.
  9. I don't understand your remark, can you reformulate ?

    This forum has it success from the contributions of all. I have contributed to this forum as far as I can tell. If some moderators are so much worried about their commercial revenues well I don't know why I will contrinute here freely also.

    What I don't like is the expression "everyone will be happy": as if the hapiness of the whole world is expressed by the opinion of one person.

    I have some principle in life and I don't like the hypocrisis of non commercial versus commercial. They do commercial things using everyone FREE contributions and they are ofuscated because I mentionned my mailing ? Well sorry but I won't continue to post FREELY for them to make business on my work.

  11. the situation is still not improving in fact we are very near the critical level in spite of Dow Jones rally:


    But don't anticipate a crash as long as it is not confirmed because this market can be very vicious as you know all :)
  12. harrytrader, your crash indicator looks very interesting. I am eager to see what happens on Monday!
  13. Harrytrader,I have not taken the time to study what you have been posting.But at least you are trying to contribute something positive.I say continue to share ,even if it only helps one person then it has value.
    This only my second post,I really don't have anything to contribute ,but encouragement to those who post and share their knowledge.
    I've read this site for a year and a half-from the start I took the cotton out of my ears and put it in my mouth and have learned much from the group.
    It is evident that there are many members of ELITE TRADER who would be of better service to this community if they put some cotton in their own mouths, but don't hold your breath ,it won't happen.

    so keep posting even if you don't have anything meaningful to say ,because contributing something helpful does not seem to be required to make a lot of post.

  14. Hello,

    Thanks you two for your support. I was angry the other day because if I'm a newcomer to eliteforum I am a not a new contributor to internet forum and I have made thousands of post in public forum since 1997 under laplace name (google made archive since 1998 http://groups.google.com/groups?hl=...0db&seekm=6qn7oo$96u$1@news4.isdnet.net#link1)

    And I have always alerted people freely with this crashindex either for crashes (as in 1998 and 2000/2001) or for rally (1999).
  15. as I posted a few days ago

    From: harrytrader2000
    Date: Thu Dec 26, 2002 1:18 pm
    Subject: Just to remember what we said about the 8285 target for Dow

    We said on 23rd December:

    "On Friday Dow reached a high of 8513.5 which was near 8512.91. This
    level was the dual of MinProjTP2 of yesterday's projection. If DJI
    failed to pass this level he could turn back to the projected level
    of 8285.58 at term (perhaps 3 to 7 days). "

    He clearly failed. So watch out this target under 8455 resistance.
  16. Very good stuff Harry! A crash it is it seems as we hit new lows and very easy - as always though we wait to Monday - it never is as it seems lately LOL
  17. This week target, calculated since last Friday is 8313 (see minimum on chart http://perso.wanadoo.fr/harrytrader/market/dji/today/cours_Plan_SPOT01w.swf)

    and there is a break zone at 8307 on daily chart (see http://perso.wanadoo.fr/harrytrader/market/dji/today/cours_Plan_SPOT1d.swf) that will act as support, that's why dow is making a flat on 8306. There is another break zone on daily future chart at 8295 (see http://perso.wanadoo.fr/harrytrader/market/dji/today/cours_Plan_FUT1d.swf) so we could stop there today if there is no time left before the close.

    Well as I am writing it, he has broken it already :).

    French Cac40 did the same but manage to close near its weekly target of 3025 at 3023.5. If Dow do the same we should close near 8313 but no garantee since my model do not predict close but calculate top and local bottoms for each scale.

    P.S.: 8285 was given on 23rd December. If you look at daily chart today http://perso.wanadoo.fr/harrytrader/market/dji/today/cours_Plan_SPOT1d.swf you can see the "true" number at 8288 so it is very close.

  18. Crashindex updated http://perso.wanadoo.fr/harrytrader/crashindex_271202.gif

    Comment on monday before europe market's opening.

    "This system alone, however, is not sufficient to profit in the stock market with active trading, especially not in the short term and must be complemented with other analyses."

    :D Well mine is better for that. And I don't even speak of my super fondamental model which can predict top and bottom to the pinpoint remember my target of 8285.58 given on 23rd December Dow made a bottom of 8285.14 :)

    Well you'd better trust market practicians than physicians. This one is the famous pittbul crash indicator, as I said mine is to comfort or not their crash signal (mine also give bullish signal I don't remember they do)


  19. harry's alrite. plz hold the eggs.
  20. I could not agree more. Some see every offer of help as a marketing scheme, but I can tell you I would not be earniog 6 figures if someone had not helped me find the right "commercial source".

    I do not believe "referrals" so someone can evaluate the personal value of a service for themselves to be commercialism. I see it as opening someone to what the poster preceives to be an opportunity.

    If you want to elimate something on this site, try getting rid of the foul language and references to drugs. I find these much much more offensive than an offer to look at a commercial product that is of benefit to the poster and being shred as they believe it can benenfit to others.

    May you all find Peace and Prosperity (and some Good Will toward others) in the New Year
  21. Crashindex level at -5 but daily buy signal is not confirmed under 8343 (nevertheless we bounced back from the theorical value of 8257 which is a positive sign - in real we made a low of 8252.51) see a copy of a post below.

    Thanks to all for your support and happy trading to all for next year :p

    Date: Mon Dec 30, 2002 1:47 pm
    Subject: Crashindex turned back to -5 level


    Each time Crashindex go to -5 level without reaching -6, this could
    signal a rally opportunity. This coïncides with the target of 8285 we
    have anticipated on 23rd and that was reached Friday.

    Now crashindex is just a stochastic model and looking at the charts
    of our more fundamental model after Friday's close, it seems that a
    little more downside could be expected before a rally occurs.

    Since we are towards the end of the month, we should look at the past
    month's projection

    You can see that we are near the base of 8257 wich is under the
    bearish cross-pattern: if we can't rally above this zone at today's
    close, this would be negative for the coming weeks which would be
    confirmed if we broke the very strong support of 8200 which is the
    min base of this monthly chart. In fact today's projection on hourly
    scale already target 8193
    h.swf) so we can even test this zone today especially under 8343.

  22. If you have some difficulties to interpret the model charts which is rather unsual use the pseudo elliotist projections @

    For example you can see clearly the 8257 level on the daily projection of spot.

    There are some trading rules suggested on the charts.
    These charts are a simplified approach combining our
    model with pseudo-elliott projections. The rules are much less
    complex than the original elliott projections or our complete model

    Above all try paper trade them: only by
    practice you can really improve your trading.

    P.S.: later I will explain why I design them by the sexy name of Unified Wave Modeling :).
  23. Like our friend Lundy and his quest to call the market bottom, if you keep yelling "potential crash alert" day after day, eventually you will be right.

  24. Or, you would not be earning 6 figures if you did not have enough subscribers to your service.

    I do not believe "referrals" so someone can evaluate the personal value of a service for themselves to be commercialism. I see it as opening someone to what the poster preceives to be an opportunity.

    Referrals are commercialism when you stand to benefit (directly or indirectly) by the referee joining or subscribing to a service. Also to reverse the old adage, one man's, or in your case, woman's treasure, is another man's trash.

    If you want to elimate something on this site, try getting rid of the foul language and references to drugs. I find these much much more offensive than an offer to look at a commercial product that is of benefit to the poster and being shred as they believe it can benenfit to others.

    Way to shift the blame.
  25. If you had just read my post you should have learned that I do not alert only of crash but also of rally. At -5 we got a rally.

    Don't confuse me with Mr Bob Prechter thanks :)

    If you don't have any opinion on the market it doesnt mean that everyone should behave like you.

    Second my crashindex is free since 1998. So stop bothering me with your insinuation. If you are not interested you can filter right ? I will filter you also if you don't have anything else more interesting to say and we will stay friend forever :).

    Third if you are against commerce why do you trade unless you are not a real trader ?

    P.S.: I most hate some animal species: spiders, snakes and sharks so be careful when one of those predators attack me I can become a tiger :D . I can also ignore them.

  26. French market has rebounced sharply and have reached the most probable consolidation target in blue http://perso.wanadoo.fr/harrytrader/market/cac/today/elliott3.gif so waiting for confirmation is important.

    French market can be followed in realtime here:

  27. Here, I found it for you.

  28. your gif date dec 02, how frequent do you update it or you just update it when you have time.
  29. His "crash alert"went off the day before that monster rally. But to his credit, he did say wait for confirmation.

    To his possible discredit, he did not jump (or at least publish) on that mini rally.

    A crash alert is like a home smoke detector. It gives many false positives, but can be useful when it gives a true positive. However, if the alarm goes off, and there is a hot meal on the table and you don't eat, you will remain
  30. Of course are you novice ? Monster rally always occurs on panic . Now I said that it must wait the break of 8200 on my fondamental model which is more deterministic (on the contrary the crashindex is a stochastic model it is fuzzy of course). We didn't break 8200 at that time so what's the problem with you :D . But after we broke 8200 you saw the result :p

    So learn the abc of what a support and resistance is before crying :cool:

  31. It is at -5.8 at Friday's close (crash alert is normally under -6 ). I will post the chart here later because it is not practical to do so with excel.

    I gave the break zone on the other post but that comes from my fundamental ("deterministic" but I don't like this ambiguous term so I prefer the term fundamental) model not from the crashindex which is just a stochastic model. Nothing genius in stochastic . Deterministic is much harder to find ... since officially there is none :D

  32. Oh its fuzzy, harry. As fuzzy as you.

    In a bear market, any "crash " indicator after a 6 week rally will eventually prove correct.

    Even a novice could tell you that, if you seek further education.
  33. how do you define the word "crash" ?
  34. Yoiu said I'm ridiculous ? Well just look at you in a mirror : BY DEFINITION a STOCHASTIC indicator is FUZZY :D

    So if possible you must use a stochastic model with something else. In fact for trading I only use my fundamental model, but people like "simplicity" (in fact they like simplisTICITY which is not the same thing) so I give them the crashindex. That's what I used before I got the other model. The backtest of crashindex was giving 200% when I was using it. Nevertheless I never trust backtest on any STOCHASTIC system with stock market where law of preobability is not stationnary globally where I must trust backtest on my fundamental model but it is harder to backtest since it more ressembles the decoding of genomes rules manipulating many matrix components.

  35. I'd probably pay closer attention to harrytrader if I had the slightest idea what he was talking about :confused:

  36. The usual definition of crash is a certain amount of downside drop. This is not my definition.

    And I have a typology of crashes that is to say there is different kind of crashes.

    The most classical one is the crash occuring with compression of the time: on my model it means we reached the exact target of the model but within a smaller time period than usual. This is not generally a dangerous crash it's just to frighten people :D

    The "real" crash (I mean the dangerous one) is when there is a forcing of a projection. That happens at the super high or at the super low. And that happens because there has also been a forcing on the upside before. When there is a forcing we usually immediatly retest the zone and come back again after a very very long time so that statisticians have difficulty to detect something else that pure phenomenon of persistency of probability that is to say they think that the apparent "trend" is just an appearance and not a true trend but my model can affirm that there is true trend. In practice persistency or not persistency that's the period where public think that this will last forever.

  37. Glad I'm not alone :p
  38. :) . I will explain little by little some days. I can't tell everything in just a thread :D And do you know that the brain needs about 18 repetitions of a new concept so as to assimilate it :D

  39. I think some people have psychologic problem with crash prediction because market's officials say "It's impossible" because market is efficient. But if you ask people : do you think market is efficient relatively many would say no - if they say yes, then I will ask them why do you trade it is ridiculous to do in an efficient market.
  40. "And do you know that the brain needs about 18 repetitions of a new concept so as to assimilate it :D "


    Is this true? I would feel a whole lot better about my perceived slow learning if it were.

    Any idea where I could find out more about this?
  41. I will post some references.

  42. While I admire anyone who attempts to learn a foreign language, trying to explain complex concepts in a language that one is not comfortable with is problematic, to say the least. Perhaps if you were to stick with simple words and simple sentences and avoid making up new words as you go along, more people would have better luck understanding you.

  43. but he is French