Usd index expected to be extremely bullish in the coming weeks and months and should see a break out north above the double top at some point.
So? What's your plan?
Usd index expected to be extremely bullish in the coming weeks and months and should see a break out north above the double top at some point.
So? What's your plan?
I trade the eur/usd and aud/usd, it pays to know where the usd index is price wise.
I day traded both these pairs all last week on the short side when my set ups presented. There's some swing high price structures just above 98 level in the index price so the crosses may get held up a bit so I'll be looking at scalps until wednesday then see what happens with the announcements.
USD index is 57% euro
Whether usd index is represent volume transaction for usd? and if we look the chart arise it's mean volume transaction for usd is increase? seems this is one good indicator for trade on usd
I don't trade without volume on my charts. Even on currencies I use tick volume as it shows not the transactions but the interest in price levels which is very helpful once you have an idea about order flow.
1) Am I looking at new information in new ways? - You don't mine for gold where everyone has been searching or, if you do, you use new tools that help you dig deeper and sift better. A wise portfolio manager recently explained his success by citing the importance of exploiting "hard to get data". That's where the truly new information--and the possible future sources of edge--lie. For example, in a recently developed routine, I break the day's action in ES into bars that represent a given number of trades. It's quite common for a single day to break down into 500-1000 bars, depending upon the level of market activity. I then look at the volatility of each bar and the degree to which expansions of volatility result in directional price movement. It turns out that expansions of microvolatility that have a directional bias precede short-term market trends. The new information is capturing the behavior of large market players who have to enter their positions over time because of their size. If you can recognize this process early, you can ride their waves. New information leads to new, promising trading.
2) Am I synthesizing market information, not just analyzing it?- Analysis gives us the pieces of the puzzle, but it's a perceptual synthesis that helps us identify what the puzzle represents. Without that synthesis, we can't assemble the puzzle; it makes no sense to us. Synthesis is sense-making; it's taking information from multiple sources and assembling it into a coherent market picture. Perhaps we see a possible trend starting per the discussion of microvolatility above. At the same time, we notice that one sector of the market is breaking out to the upside and other risk assets are firming, despite a seemingly bearish data release earlier in the session. Putting those pieces together, we recognize that the path of least resistance is to the upside and we construct a solid risk/reward entry. Too often we get lost in the weeds and overreact to single pieces of data. Our noses are so stuck in the screens that we don't pull back to see the broader context of what's going on in markets. Successful traders operate with microscopes and telescopes, developing ideas that synthesize the here-and-now with larger market patterns.
3) Do I flexibly adapt my trading style? - Traders often insist that they succeed by finding a trading style that fits their personality and faithfully sticking to that style. I've come to recognize the limitations of this view. A while ago I gave the example of the radio station owner who played music he believed to be "good music". The problem was that musical tastes were changing and people did not want to listen to the music he believed to be good. Rather than adapt to consumer needs, he stuck with his style and drove the business into the ground. Creativity means that we flexibly adapt to changing conditions. We don't insist that markets follow our predilections. When I adopted cycles as my unit of market analysis, issues of "trend trading" vs. "mean reversion trading" became moot. At certain, early portions of a cycle, you trade the momentum. At other points, you fade directional moves. When cycles are higher frequency, you trade in and out more opportunistically. When lower frequency cycles dominate, you can behave more like an investor. The market plays the music. How you dance depends on the music being played.
Too many traders approach their craft as if they're managing a manufacturing process. They don't recognize that they are also managing a creative enterprise. How you manage an assembly line making widgets is different from how you manage a movie studio. It's great to become more consistent by introducing process control and staying process driven--but not if the rigidity of process becomes a straitjacket that limits the creative essence of managing our capital.
To your last point--we are taught in school to think that way. Most schools are using an assembly line as their model.
The first part where you talk of looking at volume at a certain price, that's interesting. I follow futurestrader71 and am starting to integrate volume profile into my thinking. I think that's what you are saying.
Then again, sometimes less is more. It's up, down, or sideways for this trader. Mostly sideways is what I see. Sometimes I'll see a great setup, then I realize I'm looking only at a 15 min chart. Time to zoom out. Things take time to develop. Also, I think you can sort of eyeball where the volume is taking place just from the lower timeframe charts and from watching the tape. I know when I went from es to currencies I noticed immediately how much longer it took for things to move once support or resistance was violated, and how many more shakeouts there were before the real move resumed.
The most important tool for a trader is a quiet mind.
If you know anyone who's selling one, I'd be interested.
I have some different views about schools, education and society these days and the way kids are now indoctrinated to play a role in a system that just requires you to be just a good follower but I'll leave it at that for now .
I've been studying price and volume for a long time and still learning everyday but I would say now it's definitely worth the effort, it takes a lot of time and effort that's why most people don't understand it and say it doesn't work, but I'm not trying to convince anybody to use it I really don't care..
Don't know much about volume profile I just use the tick volume indicator and always look at price and volume together never in isolation. I look for volume peaks and low volume in swings and approaches to areas of price structures for clues in where price wants to go rather than me having an opinion and trying to choose a direction while trying to keep things as simple as possible. Will put some charts up later with some simple setups if your interested.
Yes I think it's important to get the right context for example you might be looking at the 15m chart and watching a swing high break out but the move is actually on a 4hr tf breaking out of a level where the longer term players are involved and it may take longer to clear the levels.
Currencies are definitely trickier than the es. They do fake you around a lot and can be testing at times, they are very good at taking advantage of current situations to remove your money and put it in their pockets
The mind can trick you into seeing things that are not there.
Yes I'm interested of course always something new. It just reminds me so much of the peaks and valleys in volume profile where you can see over time the most traded price then the valleys where volume cuts off. It definitely begs the question --why did so few traders want to trade at that price? And why so many there? Obviously, there is no answer, just clues.
I think it all came from the floor traders, and the developer of market profile talks about it. They were seeing first hand where price and volume came together. It's a lot different when you're there and you see big volume cross at a certain price. It sticks in your mind if you are any good. I used to love to listen to Ben Lichtenstein call the pit audio in Spooz
Speaking of crosses, I've been stalking the EUR/AUD for awhile. Looks lower to me, ultimately.
AUD/Cad cup w handle on daily. Been watching Cad drop with oil. Might be less difficult to trade than USD Cad.
Nice clean open Japan, Australia.
Wow even NZD back on its heels.
Maybe you right, our minds to analyze the trend behaviour, but I see still many trader use indicator as help tool, sometime I am watch indicator that like as giving art on the chart, they confidence with their help tool
Any thoughts today's trading? Cad was the biggest mover I think. Had a little push down in GBP but we are back in opening range. Euro you could have made a few pennies scalping the push to 1.10 earlier but the move lost momentum. Watching NZD now.
Asia open not kind to British pound. I think you could sell it here all the way up to yesterday's open around 131.30. Gold back up, too. Was looking for more selling but that may be it for now. Usd/JPY clobbered on the open. Not a good sign. Equities should be pressured tonite
GBP like a bucking bronco all day. Kind of looks higher here 131.40 or so. Been sort of reluctantly bullish all day
But I wouldn't trade it in front of fomc here
Looks like the attempt at a currency rally against USD is failing. There was some follow through buying on the London open, then it all started to fall apart around 5am EDT. Pound as usual getting hit the hardest.
Yeah monday's I resist any temptation and wait till London get's going before switching the computer on.....
How did you go with cable this week? would have done alright for some scalps by the looks I don't touch it personally
Neither definitely full cash in front of that....
Well I'm about to start up again with funds. I haven't traded in awhile but that's mostly just not having the time. Anyway, GBP I don't think it has found a bottom yet, so I'm mostly stalking it from the bearish side. London was really interesting, though, after the push up yesterday, which I was onto. I expected continuation this am, which we got. Then it all just fell apart. Actually you could see usd/JPY start to bottom, then GBP and others moved. Might do some live trades tonite. Working on it now
A monthly bar will be printing this weekend so we still might see some moves, only the ozzie green at the moment out of euro and cable and iv'e seen those green bars turn red right at the end of printing,too big of an ask for the ozzie though I think ....... Trade what you see and not what you think as always.
Yes it's choppy. Im just looking at the overall context the past tree days, where you had what looked like a break to the downside, failure after fomc, then another failure this morning. I've noticed the tendency for very extended markets to shake off both sides and create doubt on both sides before resuming the trend. So I'm still looking for a break to the downside. But we're going into Friday, so I'm not expecting as much. Money moving to CHF, which is a warning sign for other markets.
yup I agree . I don't trade now unless I'm seeing the order flow and where the big boys are positioning.
Reluctantly bullish on GBP once again. The tape just doesn't want to go down. 131.90
I think cables going down
Trying to keep an open mind here. We'll see how the open goes. Looks like it will open just under yesterday's open.
Yes I could see that happening as well.
I'll be pretty quick to discard my bias if this doesn't open well
Aussie struggling on open. Not a good sign overall. Dogs leading (GBP).
"Run for your life" cried the mad hatter!
In case anyone is watching, I'm no longer bullish.
In fact it looks as if dollar could rally hard here except usd/jpy
Wtf is holding the Euro up?
CHF continues to strengthen
Euro's come from some very aggressive buying
Yes. Still don't like it. Banks a mess.
It's just a correction
But I know better than to fight the tape. EUR/CHF. Hanging by a thread
wise words don't fight the order flow
Wild trading, especially in the pound.
Yes You have to be nimble trading the pound
So far it looks like the markets have taken the results of the European stress tests in stride. It's kind of rigged, anyway, because they didn't look at Greece or Portugal. Kind of like a stock that disappears from an index. If nobody sees it or hears it, it must not have happened.
Yes very good. Hope you lived up to your name. Funny how I was banging the table complaining about how the euro refused to go down. It's actually a trigger for a trade.
I'm guessing Mondays action will be more sideways after the run-up.
I personally try and look at who's trading and where the traders are going to be opening positions, where stops are etc and what the price action is trying to achieve and try and get a feel for the order flow so I'm thinking monday will start selling, bring in some weak shorts to get things going who will be playing the resistance (euro) then look for signs of fresh pro buying for continuation
What else do you watch and/or trade?
Gotta be long AUD here like it or not. .7610.
Ok that was a bad trade. Now I'm starting to think that was a one day rally against the dollar. Cad weak again.
Watching Deutsch Bank. Down 2 percent today. I believe that if the euro falls, it will be led by more bad news at European banks.
Cad big volatility. Usd/ Cad mostly down, but rallying hard in the face of a weaker dollar everywhere else. Something has to give. . .
Watch swing highs and lows multi time frame, measures of swings for turning points, time, price and volume relationship, price action on approaches to highs and lows...
Tried to warn you about mondays
Ha yes. Do you trade gold? Watching Cad rally here. Wondering if it will spill over to Euro, pound.
Sorry I meant the inverse. Cad down here
Trading 101 says buy the first pullback here in the euro and pound. Not sure I like it.
Yeah I like to trade gold, euro just pulled into some structure on 15m which is usually good for a scalp I'm long from 1203 some some quick pips
Nikkei got hammered pretty good, but Europe seems to be up so far.
Cad, AUD continue to weaken
closed euro scalp 1211
didnt take this trade was away but had this level pre drawn, these levels of supply are an atm to watch out for
Nice. Kind of uninspiring though. Watching to see if it will break down through O.R.
Finally funded an account. Sitting on my hands waiting for funds to clear. Been stalking cad short for awhile, so I finally get my setup.
First pullback in pound off the opening drive.
awesome, in my view you have to be able to job the market on a regular basis, which means high probability setups even if it's only 10 pips a day
Saw the same pattern yesterday, with euro just dragging as pound went higher.
Aud if it breaks 75 that's a pattern I trade. 123 on 15 min.
NZD weak as well.
Take a look at a three month chart of DB. Sorry I can't post it. Hard for me to get too bullish on euro when I see that.
It's one thing for the periphery like Greece and Spain to have banking problems. But when it starts to rot at the core, it's different. We'll see.
I see euro broke O.R. and is getting some selling. Pretty choppy with AUD and Cad. Might need more time.
Consider volatility as well
Care to elaborate?
It almost seems as if EUR/Cad and EUR/AUD being down are holding up cad and aud against usd.
Shorted EUR, GBP, AUD, Cad about 45 min ago. Covered EUR and GBP. EUR +15, GBP +10. Still short aud, cad bigger size. Looking to reestablishing Euro short with more size.
Definitely feel the shift in emotions going from sim/paper back to cash. You definitely can slide on decisions on paper. Usually I have a good idea of stops either way. It's where to close out or add that's more difficult.
Finally seeing a bit of selling in aud. We'll see if it lasts. Same in Cad after a nice run. A little bit of shine has come off the USD in the past day. Staying neutral for now, just scalping when things get extended against the trend. Problem is, hard to see where trend is right now in Euro. And GBP and AUD backing up against their trends. Did manage to take some out of EUR/AUD short above and below 1.45. That was a much easier trade.
Peso is another one you guys should be watching if not in already.
Yes, I've recently opened a couple of audusd shorts, looking toppy, this 4hr bar is key for me
This daily has to turn down today also, note we are at a previous point of heavy supply, correction should complete for now
How much are you looking for out of the trade?
cheers for the heads up, never traded it
It's one of the cleaner trading currencies (less bullshit) and 6M futures are liquid enough - which is how I prefer to trade it.
Because we are viewing this as a reversal we have to see the selling come in, which means a decent spread down bar closing near or at the lows with not high volume but decent volume, if I'm not seeing that then I don'y mind closing this trade for a small loss. if we get the engulfing selling i'll add, I usually have a few targets as I'll have a few positions open but 7670 first then some lower targets as a reversal hang on because it will go lower
I'll check it out cheers
Do you have exhaustion set ups?
Not really. Give me an example. I just look at price action and trend mostly. When I see a market like aud this morning (US time) that should have a normal pullback and shoots beyond, especially after a long run, it gets my attention.
Hammer, shooting star
Was just going to put on a short aud position. Then I saw Nzd. Think I'll wait.
Short aud after puking out a small long. Short JPY.
good, take notice how price approaches levels where a turn could be expected (previous level of selling is one example)
Short Cad, short euro. Euro goes first if it doesn't move
Just closed aussie shorts for plus 0.5 pips, gonna wait for London open now
Falling gold should lead to a bid for usd. I sure hope so cause I'm short Cad, GBP, Aud, EUR, JPY. Bout a half boat load.
My balls for sure bigger than my brains
I just get fucked off with asia, london normally fakes a few out anyway to reenter
Covered 80 percent. Mostly aud, cad short now with a sprinkling of JPY, GBP, EUR.
Out of JPY short
golds going lower
Check out GBP and gold hourly side by side. Btw covered more. 10 percent short now.
short aussie again 7715
Short usd/cad on break of 130.35 out of 3/4. Long AUD.7715.
Flat. Scratched aud, +20, +6 on Cad. Done for day.
Short EUR 1.1143. Saw gold had a big move down. Not a great time of day.
Short GBP at 12956. Small. Too early to put on anything big. Nonetheless things are moving.
Looks like EUR going to close right on low for day. Suggests continuation.
yup the us dollar is going up and the aussie eu down
Usd/JPY got a low boil going too.
coming off a base should continue a quick rise
Long USD/JPY at .92
Aussie gonna tank or what
Haha out flat that was a very profitable lawn mowing.
Now the trick is just leave it alone for awhile, let it retrace. I have given away more money chasing in these situations.
Usd/Cad looks awfully tempting to the long side, but I just can't in the face of that downtrend.
Gold has backed up nicely. 1340. It led the currencies down before this afternoon.
I'm just ecstatic to get some asia action
Yes it must be tough I was thinking of that earlier. You're at your best when the markets are quietest. Me, I'm an owl, so anything at night is good, but mornings not so much. It's half the reason I gravitated to currencies. The other half was I blew out my equity account and only had enough to leverage currencies. This was a while back. Still, the London open is the middle of the night for this trader. You'd be surprised how many times I wake up at 2 or 230 am without an alarm clock. I wouldn't do that for anything else.
Gold has lost its zing. I expected another push down from the retracement at 40. Trying to keep an open mind here.
Have to remember that the trend in usd/JPY is down, down. So I'm going to be careful here.
pretty much london is when I want to be trading with the liquidity, my evening
Stops above 90 in AUD me thinks.
They call it Try-S in Chicago. Stuck, Short, and Stubborn.
Hey guys anybody knows why gold dropped and USDX surged in New-York on Thursday? Some significant change in risk sentiments as I see..
Well, the way I see it is, there's no real news at that time, so it's just bigger time frame players, or just bigger players selling. You see how I (we) shadowed the weakness? Now the reason isn't material. If there were significant news, like peace breaking out everywhere, I would pay more attention to the why. Because big news has ripple effects throughout the market.
I did post elsewhere that I noticed that gold had stopped going down, and that it wouldn't surprise me if the euro rallied. That was about 630am. Why? Because both were struggling to go down. That's the reason.
I guess we didn't post our trades, but I was short euro, and Aussie from when I saw the weakness in gold. Got out at around 8pm on the push down and waited for London open, which I kind of fudged up, but managed to extricate myself a few hours later at a profit.
Gold is approaching significant highs doggy that go back to early 2014 so it's going to have to correct if it wants to go higher
yup you were right about the stops being run too which is exactly what happened
Kind of a difficult trade in retrospect. Went long euro, aud about 430 this am (NY time). Got into Cad long later. Lots of chop for hours and hours. Bought AUD between .7660 and .70, averaging down. EUR at 1.1170. Cad around 12930 but I was able to trade around that a few times. Finally, finally was able to unload all on the push up around 1030am. Looking back I sold right near the top. Had I tried to get back in on any retracement I probably would have given much of it back. Apologize for not posting in real time, going to be better about that. ++2.75% on the day.
Went long euro, aud, cad on the first good pullback after the news came out at 830am. Scalped out as soon as I had 8-10 pips. I really don't like catching knives like that, but it is in the direction of the trend. Wasn't going to trade, as I felt I had missed it, but when i saw the price drop it was too compelling. Up +.6%.
Went back to the well a second time. That was not such a friendly neighborhood. Was heavily long aud, light euro and Cad. The euro and Cad moved around enough to let me out, but the Aussie stayed mired in that same trading range .75 to.95. Managed to get out at a profit but took big risk for the reward. Never got that push up above like the euro. Oh well done for the day ++2%
I am right on the fence about the Euro. That sort of felt like a little blow off right out of one area of resistance right into another. Right now the tape still has to be considered positive, but I'm staying back. Aud really trading kind of funny too, lagging the Euro. The way I see it, Aud and Nzd should be leading an upleg to be considered bullish. Waiting for more info.
Cad really strong, but it's been up 8 days in a row. I'd be looking for some signs of weakness.
nice abcd eu correction selling...
I have not changed my direction in any of these instruments, been stopped out few times at breakeven or hedges save my noodle, but am staying the course no matter what. Without your system and discipline to trade it, one has no system, my system has gotten better as years gone by adding more ways to use options around my long term approach.
fair enough, measured corrections like the one above have been my bread and butter for a good while now, often trading both sides on many time frames, I don't mind taking hits either
your view is appreciated too , would love to see more of how you view a market
Isn't it a beauty? Down I would say.
I always enjoy other posters way of trading, we would never learn new things, and I am still learning something each month.
Although mine is frightening to most, am pretty sure it is close to how Producers/Commercials trade to hedge. Whereas I trade Futures instead of products, I use options to hedge. I use nine year charts, finding upper/lower 25%, when price enters these zones, I look for the extremes and go the other way. I would love it to be SAR(Stop and Reverse), chances of that happening is like waiting for the next .400 hitter in baseball, but I will eventually get in last trade and except for rollovers, will hold positions(I will add more positions as market goes to other side), I use one target that is actually based on overnite margins, so they are no lower than $4800 to $15k and exit half position, the other half either makes it to other side or in case of Indexes, I eventually get stopped out on half at little better than breakeven stops. But I have gotten pretty good at using options as my hedge whether opening future entries or hedging Open Profits, so like when ES made triple and Quad bottoms, I did Debit Call Spreads to keep some of the profits when it ran down, always rolling over. But regardless of the signal, I have to maintain old signals till price reaches other side, so it can be two dozen losing trades in a row with couple trades making first targets. My longest trade direction has been 5.5 years. The more one can see this is strictly numbers game, don't take it personal with loses, become a robot and better yet automated it, I set it and forget it, let small staff keep track of positions and when to make sure of rollovers.
So I don't have any views of the markets, only go by whether am Long, Short or looking to get one or the other. I prefer to be as dumb as possible so as not to be undisciplined and over ride system, I always lose out by doing it, least now got it down to zero or once a year, always cost me, dumb dumb dumb, it is funny, I often forget all the great trades and remember the dumb trades, LOL. Market going to go where it wants to go and nothing I think is going to help it to go there.
Dollar creeping up again. Looking for gold to break down. Not trading in front of fomc, even though pattern says short aud, euro. But no momentum right now. Tried to short aud at .26 but just scalped out for a few pips.
No clear direction to currencies this am.
Scalped long euro, cad, aud. Cad broke nicely on a 123 bottom usd/cad. Out. No momentum in Aud for sure yet. Still don't like trading euro from the long side.
Maybe that's what is keeping the euro up. If you see me finally throw in the towel and get bullish, you probably should short it.
Yes but the tape is up. Some conflict is always part of trading, but it's particularly strong right now IMO. Trading fast and light until it gets better.
Nzd hourly has a pretty nice looking chart. Aud too but it's not as tight.
I like how you get a nice looking breakout setup, then it sells off 25 or more points just to take out some stops and keep everyone honest.
Yep. That didn't look like a nice gentle pullback in aud, Nzd. Sitting on my hands
and why solid trade management is so important, mine is first tp at first structure or 38% retrace of swing whichever comes first and move stop to break even, second tp at 2nd structure or 61.8% of swing whichever first.
Short GBP at .36. long USD/JPY at .21 here. Missed short in aud-- scratched it higher up selling on first bounce towards.50.
Out of GBP -8. Still holding JPY, aud short. Aud from .36 on the most recent bounce.
Out of everything for some meager gains. Hey, it's better than a stick in the eye.
Gold just broke 1340. Added to short euro, aud. Already out of GBP from higher, couldn't pull the trigger on a retrace so I shorted other stuff.
Long USD/JPY from .21 before the break
Missed that usd/cad run-up. Just needed it to pull back a few more pips.
Well that all pretty much turned into a mess.
Banging my head against the wall again. Gold slipped again. Still short euro, aud jpy
Gold going to close around or below 1340. Euro hourly looks pretty ominous. Looking at the short side for Monday, unless something changes. Managed to get out of today with my skin intact, but down 1 percent. Most of that from being sick. Was up good and gave it back. Just lost my discipline in the face of shrinking liquidity. I knew it was Friday.
The usd index is now going to be running into heavy structure and should start getting held up to the down side. Note there's an abcd possible correction that will complete just below 94 that I will be keeping an extremely close eye on So you know my expectation I'll be scalping this hard next week on the crosses.
(Also to note this daily tf has in fact made higher swing highs and higher swing lows)
you know my routine now, I don't trade asia mondays and wait till london gets going, and I'm drinking beer on friday london 9am
There seemed to be enough liquidity until about 830 am New York. After that a reversal and covering till 12 noon. Then drift as usual. But gold closing on lows is significant.
I'm also turning over in my head that the euro longer term chart doesn't look as bearish as I used to think.
a deeper correction for gold on the cards you think ?
Well I try not to think. You know. It's just a little bit of a surprise, so I'm looking for follow through. Plus it fits with stronger usd, weaker euro, Aussie. Trying to keep an open mind as usual
Yep your right, i don't trade with an opinion because that will just keep you holding on to bad positions and your just guessing , I trade specific set ups with an expectation which is extremely important and so the direction actually doesn't matter , I'll try and explain it better in this euro chart to follow
What happens usually is I notice the weakness or strength then I wait for one of my patterns. Simplest one is flag. There's cup with handle, ascending triangle, and 123 on a flat top . Reverse obviously works on them as well.
spot on, you have to have a handle on the order flow
Possible 123 setup in the Aussie short at .76 if it gets back there. I probably won't take it this session. Maybe London.
No trades from me this session either
Just watching them fall. Third low broken in Aussie. Gold had a nice fall. I'd sell a retracement back towards 1340.
yes gold's into quite a bit of structure now on the 1hr which it might have a hard time getting through
Long USD/JPY at .61. Small size
Out at .75. Short aud and euro with a tight leash
v good, sitting on my hands till london
Medium weight short AUD on drop in gold. Short GBP, euro, JPY small. Looking to scalp out
Just a grind higher for the dollar so I'm staying long for now.
Kaching. Out. ++2%.
Faded the open s aud at.13, EUR at .89. scalped out for a few quarters in front of the steam roller.
Possible reversal against dollar here. Don't want to play it yet, so I'll do the next best thing. Zzzzzzzzzz.
It was indeed. Woke up to churn and chop. Took GBP, euro, and Aussie long inside their consolidations. Caught the pound perfectly no heat as it was coming out. Out and done ++2.75%. Nice comeback after Friday. Only had one losing set of trades in the middle.
Wow the euro pulled way back and little bounce. Of course, it's late.
It seems there's little chatter about the JPY now and how strong it is. When it first hit 100 to the USD there was more talk about how the Japanese economy was going to be ruined, and someone better do something fast. Now a couple months later the chart looks worse(better) and I don't hear a peep. Sign of a trend in progress.
Usd/JPY just lost its momentum. Euro, Aud struggling again. I sense the market is going to have a big move, cause it's pretty tightly wound up here. I just don't know which way.
Long usd/JPY, short euro, aud. I strongly believe there are traders trapped long here, based on today's action.
Market of currencies today, not so much a currency market. Hard to pick out trend in dollar. Crosses.
Finally got some downside movement in Aud. It's still range bound as we sit here. Flat. Slightly positive day after a horrendous day yesterday where I did everything wrong. That's how I figured there were traders trapped long against the dollar, cause I had been one of them . Hook, line, and sinker I swallowed. Then I spit it out and swallowed it again. Cautious now going into Yellen speech, which is an exercise in ridiculousness.
Breakout mode in AUD
Euro, aud, Nzd, really tightly wound. Treading very lightly. Managed to take a few pips earlier, mostly in GBP on its push down. Looking forward to the end of summer already.
yes usd not showing much interest to the high side last couple days
I'm still skeptical, no matter what she said. Euro still range bound, same with Aussie. Maybe it's a different range, so what?
Well, the currency markets seem to believe her, at least for one day. So I have to respect that. However I'd like to point out that if the dollar increases, she's probably not going to get her 2% inflation, nor full employment. So actually just by talking she can achieve something. If she actually does something, I don't think the economy will be able to take it. So then they are definitely not hitting their targets. The whole thing stinks IMO.
I'm Short everything against the dollar from this evening. Too much turmoil going on with the bond market. I sense a flight to quality. Euro again the strongest in this situation, so I'm looking to get out of that first.
Chop, chop, chop. Then reversal. Not a lot of fun to trade. Only bright spot was Cad short. Keep seeing currencies about to break hard to the downside, and the selling evaporates. Not sure what to make of it.
With the uncertainty of the us elections still can't see either side committing to any major moves, big boys still seem to be long euro but lightening up a bit now
It looks to me like the fall in Deutsche Bank may be affecting the euro.
Usd/Cad appears to have finally broken out above 1.32. AUD and NZD have charts which look to me like they could roll over at any minute. Trying to keep an open mind as usual, but in the back of my mind I know that sooner or later things must change. These trading ranges will eventually be broken.
Short EUR, Aud, GBP, Nzd from about a half hour ago. Just saw the reversal and jumped on it. Then i saw that the markets were down along with DB. Going to try to hold these shorts. I smell blood in the water.
looks like you got some, does your chart show a gold spike down 20 mins ago?
I'll be looking to buy EU in the 1190 area for todays London I think or I'm done for the week and will be selling rallies with the ozzie next week
and London re-ozzie
Out of most of the position. Still holding small short EUR and AUD. Never did catch any Nzd, and as it wasn't moving right now I scratched it. Same with GBP .
The big boys (longer term players)are still mainly short USD, long Euro (lightened a little again)and Aussie they're still short, in fact they've increased shorts slightly but no were near the levels we saw back in April
I'm flat but I'm just a day trader these days , got the bounce on the EU like I said was going to happen, they got to buy lower than I expected
expecting ozzie to finish the week down next week
I'll be watching rallies early next week to sell into (aususd)
I'm flat. Not trading much but couldn't resist the dB selloff, since I had been stalking it for awhile. Selling in Euro and Aud seemed to shutoff again.
Just looked at EUR/AUD cross. Looks like a breakout and retest on daily. Very interesting. Going to be watching that and seeing if there's any implications for Asian equities if Aud moves lower. And I did have your (Pip)comments about Euro in the back of my mind when I was taking profits on the short position. That proved to be the right move. More triangulation till it ends eventually.
Check out usd\can for longer term sell on daily chart
Get your 5m 15m short term reversal strategies in order... next good few weeks is going to be like that eurusd I think
Yeah I've been watching that
I had it breaking above 1.32 but it couldn't hold. A move lower would probably trap some traders still long and holding on.
Buy weakness sell strength?
Yeah but like you already know you have to be careful momentum can also mean it's going to continue .. I'll send you some ideas that I use
Long term, I remain Long all major currencies and short Dollar, I keep buying Brit Pd and hedged, eventually it will bottom.
Short usd/cad after getting stopped from lower level. Re shorted. Long EUR, Aud and Nzd. Trying to hang on, thinking risk will come back to the market. Watching DB like everyone else, but it seems like the storm has passed for now.
I like the way oil is trading so I'm leaning on usd/cad short. You could make an argument that oil is starting a new range higher
I shorted usdcan today for a longer term trade
EUR/Aud struggling today.
I noticed in another thread a long time trader noticing the chop in oil till now. I see it in the currencies and equities. Perhaps we are nearing the end of it. I'm betting that way for today.
Looking for news on the euro. Big bounce off of 1.1150 area
EUR/Aud anyone? Not sure if the move down in gold rearranged the furniture or vice versa, but big moves anyway. Still range bound though with exception of GBP. Equities look bearish now. Usd/Cad action --is it finally going to hold above 1.32? Oil rally in doubt if it does.
Ok Nzd, Aud, Cad , all starting to roll over. Cad down on stronger oil. GBP no need to say it. Only Euro holding up and that may be a bit of flight to quality. Bonds continue to sell off. It seems just a matter of time before they break hard. Hmmm. . .
No one seems to be talking about push up in Usd/JPY.
Cad more of a wild card for me right now. Oil up and dollar, gold down.
I'm short Aussie, GBP, Euro.
Scratched euro, GBP. Still short Aussie.
Euro approaching most recent lows around 1.1150. That flag seems to be broken now 1.1164. Still would rather be short Aussie. Usd/Cad back above 1.32 even with strong oil.
Short Nzd .7143. Long USD/Cad 1.3230
Hope nobody was on the wrong side of the pound earlier
Yes Pip. So tempting to call a bottom. But only the market decides when.
I'm flat going into NFP. Took a little out of everything except the pound. The Usd has been pushed pretty good. Wonder how much is left even if the news is good.
yup I'll be flat nfp too, out of usdcan for now
watching eu PA around 1100 should get held up
Nzd back down after the run-up. Cad, AUD as well. Let's see if it holds going into Friday afternoon. 10 year yield still holding above 1.70.
Cup with handle on EUR/AUD hourly.
euros a long now on the daily's
Yes the tide seems to have changed back to the bulls. First retest 10950 area for a long?
Any news showing Trump strength seems to be bearish for the markets and USD. I see a similar setup as before Brexit vote. The markets hate surprises.
Yes will be waiting for London watching for any signs of pro buying
I agree trump win usd tank
Cad still a wild card. It held down Friday afternoon.
Long everything against USD, except Cad. Scratched that long. Pretty sad when GBP is less choppy than EUR. USD/Jpy causing me fits. Short here just below .20 level resistance.
Still long euro, aud, nzd, Jpy. Wtf is up with Nzd? Sleeping I guess. Fortunately it's a tiny position. Aussie just testing above .10.
Out of some of Aussie above .40. Out of Jpy for now. Added to nzd at .65. Bought a smidge of GBP at around .30 after missing the move after the first push up. Short a little USD/Cad at 1.3411. Oh boy dont know about that one. It's got a short leash. Still long euro trying to find a bottom on this swing down towards .60.
Out of rest of Aussie at .56. Wheeeee!
yes going to be looking for just scalps now until after the election
Gold is in a correction now I think on daily's and will be going lower lows
Flat. Out of Euro at 1.10. Limit took me out of pound while I was sleeping. Going to just watch for awhile. Biggest day yet. Up around 12% since Sunday after trading pretty badly overall for weeks. Thanks Pip for that heads up on Euro daily. It really helped focus me.
Long GBP on page ush down to support at .36. Just looking to scalp out near .50
Push it should have said. Damn spell checker
Out of GBP
Shutting it down so I don't keep trading.
What's happening with greenback? trump wins or what?
Market seems to be discounting that possibility. Doesn't mean he will win, it's just that it looked like he had no chance a month ago. Also, I'm beginning to suspect that the bond market may be the underlying cause. But there may be no correlation. Also , I would add that the Chinese economy seems to be strengthening, and we seem to be slightly weaker ala housing and autos for instance. Maybe we are weaker than the rest of the world for a change. Anyway, don't fight the tape. I do it anyway and wonder why TF I just did that. Like Nzd last night. And I was bullish going in and had been long. I just started thinking that weakness in equities would lead to a flight out of the risky currencies. Not so. It was all dollar weakness.
All of my gains last night came from riding USD/Jpy hard down. I was long Swiss too but gave it back in the chop after 5am est. I sold yen too soon, but that's trading.
Gotta get better at posting beforehand. Helps keep me disciplined. Actually I was trying to sit on my hands but when yen broke OR I had to take it.
Out of all my currency longs except a tiny long aud. Getting a little frothy, and they will probably run further, but I'm up really really good on the week and I don't want to give much back. The same people who were long dollars late last week are the same ones who are going to start chasing this move I believe. Not saying it's over, just a little extended. I've seen the prettiest looking patterns get trampled on when some big OTF comes in and steps all over my expected move.
Haha that's funny. Just checked Australia after writing previous paragraph. It just dropped 35 points, taking me out. Case in point. Luckily i had raised the stop a bit when it crossed .7670.
May see some unloading of positions with dollar crosses, some risk management so that means chop
Back on the gas. Long euro aud Cad. Leaving Jpy alone for now. Aud appears to have broken out above .7680 for now. Euro 111.20 I'm long from .10. Cad had a long, long consolidation. Short USD/ Cad from 1.3386.
1295 spot gold level will be worth watching
Yes. Taking heat now. Still I don't think the panic is done. Just a pause. GBP continuing to strengthen against a slightly stronger USD.
Seems like everything is trading off of the yen.
turned right on the money
Nice. Wish I could tell you that I held on to euro, aud, etc. through the chop, but I didn't. Looking at it now, I see USD/JPY which doesn't seem to have bottomed. I can't really point to anything to say that except I don't see signs of panic and capitulation. And I look to the action in stocks as well. Just really shaky
Yes heavy dollar selling ahead of elections
Looking to Monday Asia and London sessions there was no intraday profit taking at the end of friday US session on the EUR/USD which would normally mean a weak opening so the expectation going into Monday Asia is for strong open.
For anybody who wishes to get started with order flow read and understand this book, it will get you going on the right path. Ignore the vsa software.
This was worded a bit wrong, intraday profit taking friday US session would indicator weak asia open monday, but there wasn't
Got it. Unusual trading for a Friday afternoon. Thought about carrying a USD/JPY short into Monday, then decided against it. If it sells off hard, I'll just wait for the retracement. If it doesn't I didn't miss anything.
Yesterday, most of currency pairs as well as futures (e.g. gold, oil, even indexes) if not all, went through non-dominant trends (correction) so I did not even bother trading.
I just don't know how to use contrarian strategy (market' makers correction strategy) yet.
Hi Swim, how are you? good to see you around
Yeah back at it. And likewise. Had a solid week. Gave back some at the end, but that was because I was over committed. Had the direction basically right but couldn't hold on with the risk.
Very wise without a solid game plan and a decent handle on order flow your going to struggle big time.
You don't want to be chasing price around.
It's just that this correction involves higher risk (because this correction often has no reversing trend ) but produces lower return. I teach that this kind of trading/investment is not optimal at Uni. So I hesitate to trade on non-dominat trend...
Man I don't see anything nor really want to for that matter. Despite the run-up in dollar. Would love to short USD/Jpy but it's too risky. That's ok. There will be trades later.
well weekend news gapped Eur/usd and gold down,and gold bounced off my 1295 again but missed it .....
I don't like news driven roller coaster rides either
This EURUSD ... is going through the correction. It's dominant trend last week was uptrend so the current correction (non-dominant trend) is down.
Gold is likewise.
Both non-dominant trend is carried over from Friday.
Unlike EURUSD, USDJPY had a dominant (bear) trend last week and the upgap appears to be the correction and the correction is carried over from last Friday.
Something might happen to Aussie today or this week. It looks like the correction appears to be nearly finished or has finished.
Kiwi could depreciate as it looks it's about to enter the correction.
USDCHF is in correction...
GBPUSD is in correction ...
A boring Monday is expected...
But guys, you can still do some trading. Make sure you use limited orders rather than market orders in case price don't go in the expected direction since most of them are going through correction
It is a boring Monday. Patience, patience, patience. Aud looks like someone is standing on the brake and accelerator at the same time. No trades.
Take a look at the Euro weekly chart.
Article on CNBC about Italy referendum.
Yeah very bearish, to gain context for future trades the question has to be did the longer term big players STO the euro and BTO the dollar this week rather than liquidate I think they may have.
The EU's looking very fragile, a French referendum would finish it I reckon, they would vote out too....
Currently holding a small short into the weekend.
got the LL's on gold
eurusd was showing a bit strength at the end of fri, it may drift up monday asia
Yes that's fine
Got taken out on a limit at 10805, which I had sort of known to put lower. So as soon as the market came back to that level, I shorted half a position just in case. Looking to add higher.
At the moment, the momentum is in uptrend but it's touching a resistance level. It might cross it though temporary (but hope not since you have an open position just above it).
I would set a limit short order below 1.07910 area.
Out of that for now.
Feels to me like all the opportunity has been wrung out of this market for now. Time to sit back and wait.
Did take a few shorts against USD this morning, successfully. Now everything has retraced. GBP is in a really interesting spot right here IMO. Took something out of it but I could make a case for it already having bottomed or close to it. Or maybe it's just the Euro being so weak that the crosses are coming into play. Watch out for the change up that looks like a fastball. You'll swing three times before the ball gets to the plate.
Not a lot of trading from me so far this week, been away on a break to Wellington NZ and was on the 5th floor of an apartment block in the CBD when the big 7.8 earthquake hit
Yes I was wondering about you. I don't have a tv hooked up so all I saw was that it had happened from CNBC online and the Nzd reacted a bit. I didn't realize it was that strong.
The south Island got it pretty bad luckily no population centers this time, it was big any nearer Wellington we would have been history.. (the vid isnt me)
It seems like the momentum has shifted a bit away from the USD. GBP on the move. Aussie still struggling, which is the opposite of what I've been seeing forever and ever it seems. Usually it's been Aud and Nzd out of the gate first on rallies
Well, that rally didn't last long.
Hugh Hendry is betting on an EU breakup and a ‘very high’ probability Marine Le Pen will be French president
November 16, 2016 Greg McKenna Markets
If you want a strong view on the global economy and markets right now, look no further than Hugh Hendry, founder and chief investment officer of the $200 million Eclectica hedge fund.
Hendry told the Reuters Global Investment Summit overnight that his fund is betting on the break-up of the EU in a trade he says could deliver 30-35% returns to his fund.
The reason he’s taken the bet is that Hendry believes National Front leader Marine Le Pen has a “very high” probability of becoming French president at next year’s election.
Le Pen herself said after the US presidential election win of Donald Trump that his victory “made possible what had previously been presented as impossible”.
Hendry also noted that Dutch far-right politician Geert Wilders is doing well. These political trends could lead to the break-up of the EU.
“The biggest risk to the global economy is the acute and impending political crisis in Europe, which monetary policy does not have the tools to resolve” he said.
Hendry told the audience that the analogue for the break up of the EU is Britain’s withdrawal from the gold standard in 1931.
Read more …
Get Greg’s overnight wrap of all the moves and his outlook for the day, 6 things traders will be talking about, and his daily look at the Australian dollar and where it’s headed.
Subscribe here …
About the Author
Greg is a trader, behavioural finance/economics guy and technical analyst. His trading methodology is based on a combination of these factors, more than 25 years experience of profitable trading and simple common sense money management and trade execution techniques.
March 2015 low coming up for EURUSD
Yes that was my thought also when I saw it break down. Thanks for posting the article. Change is happening before our eyes. Exciting in a way. Or scary I guess, depending upon ones view.
I wouldn't want to be long most bonds for the foreseeable future. It looks like the day of reckoning may be closer than before. I'm guessing he's short Italian bonds. The world is awash in debt.
Interesting that EUR is actually stronger than Aud on hourly.
That's right the EU pantomime isn't over by a long shot and leaving out all the possible conspiracy's that it's all being staged managed in the first place the EU has got big problems especially with the Don now president as he has close ties with Nigel Farage who led Brexit and the right in Europe so it looks like it's being priced in right now in the EURO. Which means the March 2015 low is going to be taken out.
Dollar strength now all over the news, and a foregone conclusion. I'm laying off for now. Look what happened to the Pound. Down hard then up harder. Aussie backing up as well. Cad testing the 1.34 level. I'm wary of trades that seem obvious to the crowd. They seldom work.
Long euro 1.0620. Looking to exit half above 40.
Short USD/Jpy 110.97
Sold more USD JPY in the 80s
Covered a third at 60usdjpy still holding EUR.
Out of everything. I don't trade earthquakes, and I don't want to be short dollars in any emergency.
U know i prefer london and wil Probably sit on my hands till london but I'll prob just post any aussies or gold levels intra day Asia session that pop up
No I don't trade wars either. earthquakes are not very nice
Yes, you would know. Tape is looking pretty funny, like screwed up funny, to me right now. Jpy especially.
waiting for 7470 ish aud/usd for a sell
Don't think you'll get that now. Maybe on the way back up. Never know.
USD Jpy has that blow-off top look to it.
yeah your right it was looking quite exhaustive when I posted thought we might get 1 more climatic push and wipe out a few more stops but 70 was a bridge to far, I was gonna load up on that one too
Yes normally I would agree but my concern is we ain't getting the volume associated with a reversal in fact volume is dropping off which means no real reversing of positions and no sellers so usdjpy higher
Eur/Usd getting closer to March 15 low ..........
Yes. I was a day early on this last move down and got chopped up. So I came into this am more than a little gun-shy and had already decided not to trade. It wasn't fun to watch it go down. Now I wait for a retrace.
that's right don't want to be chasing price around
I've got my eye on 0550 for short not taking anything until London wakes up now, they might fake it up first...
Yeah well remember it's a holiday here in US so liquidity will probably be questionable.
yes early night for me then
Sold buck, any suggestions on major retracement timeframe?
If the dollar does go into major correction (needs to break 101.50 for me to be viewed as correction) I can't see it being too long lived and probably more of a smaller tf correction which means middle - end next week (non farms next week)
Not sure what time frames are being discussed here, IMO USD will now continue macro uptrend.
Heads up on gold spot it's going to put in a decent correction.(long)
What is your expected major resistance?
I don't normally trade Forex cause I can't hedge, I been short the USD futures couple times last year, first move down didn't reach first target and learned from that so 2nd time down I took half profits, all told monthlies made weird 4 tops and Quad bottom-making a rectangle, meaning that if market went up again, it would most likely punch through and make new highs, on the weeklies, I would add on to shorts/hedged when the medium trend looked up as per my system and when able to draw upsloping trendline, each time price came down to trendline, I would hedge open profits, as market kept going up, previous add on positions got stopped out with breakeven plus few tics till I was flat futures but still long options. When RSI then MACD maxes out to systems stats, past week an half, it has gone short and hedge.
Other flip of coin, have done same to various currencies when I have to depending on their monthlies, weekly and daily charts, but the Euro is NOT as weak as USD is strong, USD is making new highs but Euro is not making new lows, lows of March 2015 is lower.
I do day trade Euro's and others in futures market, but I am a Scalper take 1-8 ticks and usually out in few minutes. I don't trust the data in Forex, do like like paying spreads wider than futures markets. Day trading helps bottom line as my long term method can sometimes go couple years of backfilling different markets till it finally going other direction, but it is a method I been doing two decades plus and too old to learn much else. I don't have opinions of any market as they are usually what my brain sees just like the rest of you, so I rely on system rules and automation to continue to do what I back tested/traded long time. Same thing with Scalping, you test till your fingers are sore and brain can't think any longer. You ignore people who don't add to your life, if I did, most likely be in same shithole life they lead. You want to do well trading? Figure out what people are afraid to do and test it out, here is the secret to trading, CYA, know more about the markets and trading that the 95% who lose, you not out to beat the market and you not out to beat heavy banks/brokerages/HFT, you can see on charts where they come in, cram one minute charts as much as you can, when you see volume jump, it is not retail coming in, figure out what is making HFT come into the market, and learn to tailcoat. Long term Commercials go short at some point when markets more up and buy very low, but they are hedging with futures as they have the underlying in fields or money related. It has been a great learning why things behave the way they do.
I expect when Trump takes oath, markets will resume what they were doing before, Buy the rumors and sell the facts. We a long way from becoming great again.
No idea tbh.
Sold Aud.7469, Bought USD/Cad 1.3468. Stops are 30 pts, no idea of a target now. Just going to watch and see. Tough selling in front of the train now.
Kind of expect the dollar to strengthen again but only after chopping around at this level, perhaps for days. V bottoms and tops are rare, so I don't expect this dollar weakness to change immediately. I'll probably just scalp out and take what I can get.
Out of everything at a small loss. Cad short showing the most promise.
Short aud .7462. Short Euro 10576.
didn't get the energy break out with gold that should have happened for it to put in a correction by now so I'm out of longs
Yeah I was noticing that. Just shorted aud at .65, euro at .93. Long USD Jpy from 112.10. So I'm taking some heat. Going to sleep on it.
short gold 92
I would expect the currencies to follow.
I'm looking to sell aussie 85 ish
if it gets there sold @76
cov the aussie short need to see what London are going to do
sold 84 aussie see what happens
Up big on USD Jpy. Still holding EUR, Aussie, Jpy shorts. Have a limit to sell USD Jpy at 112.98 but that's just a random number.
Out of Jpy, reentered at .92. Added a bit to euro and Aussie shorts. 1.0575 and .7442
Take a look at EUR Cad hourly. I'd sell it if I wasn't already short the world against the dollar.
Taking beaucoup heat, but I still think we take out the morning lows/highs in the near future.
Euro retested 106.50 area. Then bounced. You could see everything dollar related bounce as well. We'll see if it lasts.
I'm short Cad from 1.3430. I can't believe it keeps retesting 1.34 area.
If USD Cad does break higher it will probably move quickly now.
Got stopped on Jpy, reentered around 112.35. Im betting it's a trap. Still long USD across the board.
IMO it looks like it's all about to come undone.
Hard day's night. Finally maybe a push down. Got stopped on USD Cad. That's about the only thing that came unraveled, except it was the wrong way. Still short Aud, EUR, and Jpy.
Out of just about everything. Still holding small EUR and Jpy shorts after cutting back.
Flat. Closed out EUR at 105.60. Limit took me out of Jpy at 113.95.
Rolling the ball back up the hill it looks like.
nice work you got most of the eurusd audusd move then
Yes one of my better days in terms of execution and relying on my intuition to tell me when to get in and out. I traded the Euro several times during the downtrend and was able to sense the shifts back and forth pretty well. Ah, if only it were like that every day. . .I missed the last push down in the Aussie from .7410 below, and the push above 114 in the USD Jpy. I thought it would pause and retrace there. Sitting on my hands now.
Short Euro from 1.0610. Short Aussie from .7386.
Stopped on both.
Everything seems to be in no man's land now. Can't buy it and can't sell it. So I wait.
Referendum in Italy tomorrow.
I don't think it will have much impact on EURUSD since Italy isn't a dominant nation but EURUSD may appreciate until there is an actual change in interest rate in US dollar.
Are u kidding? If another major member was to exit it could send Euro into downward spiral, as it could signal the breakup of EU.
Any reason why Italy would do that? If they exit then it will certainly have impact on EURO. But I haven't seen any news that signals that yet. Besides, why would Italy do that? Their economy sucks and so is their old currency Lira
commercial traders have been hedging by buying EURUSD in November, why? Swim do you know any particular reason? are they anticipating that EURUSD will rise in the near future? Please shed some light thanks
It has more to do with the Italian bonds-- their ability to borrow. The Italian banks are already shaky. Markets generally don't like instability, nor do most who would invest in a business. It's all about having faith in what seems to be a patched together system. The Trader in me says sell political and economic instability and ask questions later.
Speculators have better information and yes, their overall position tells that it anticipate EURUSD to depreciate in the future...
I really can't, but I suspect it has to do with hedging short positions elsewhere. Maybe bonds. It seems that awhile back Piptaker was saying here that commercials were net long the Euro in the COT report. That was when euro was much higher. It was in this thread. So I just watch the price and the overall backdrop. Hard to be bullish Euro here.
It's like this. First Greece. Then Britain. Maybe now Italy. Different circumstances in each case, but a tapestry of problems. It's not the USA where there are individual states but a common government. And the technical picture stinks too. That doesn't mean it can't rally temporarily. But the writing is on the wall. Which can make it hard to trade, because everyone thinks it's in trouble and everyone can't be right in trading, so you need to have some shaken out of their positions.
This is the corresponding weekly chart for EURUSD.
EURUSD is clearly in bearish sentiment and Yes, last week's appreciation appears to be a rally.
Did you happen to know when the actual date is for US dollar interest rate change?
Red circles represent price correction by speculators
There's just so much debt in the periphery of Europe and not much growth it seems. Eventually things will change. It's like the old joke--The only two things i dislike are change and the way things are. You can't have a social welfare state go on forever. But nobody but the fringe wants to do anything about it, cause their hands are already in the cookie jar. These problems have been around for a long long long time such that it seems they will never have consequences. Maybe soon. There just needs to be a catalyst or series of events like 2008. Will that be the big event that finally causes debt repudiation? I don't know. But I do know that we are in the middle of the largest debt bubble in history, just by the numbers.
Italy has a bit excessive debt and so is Japan ( so expect Yen to depreciate even more)
Most european members have cash deficit...
Inflation is not too bad though.
Overall status indicates that EURUSD will depreciate soon when there is an actual interest change in US dollar, especially given that interest rates offered by european members are not very attractive.
hmmm a negative interest rate in Japan...but Australian government offers some nice interest rate...so AUDUSD may not depreciate much. Look at Russia, they offer one of the most attractive interest rate!!!!!! and they will default on their bonds if they don't feel like to payback
It's about the real interest rate, not the nominal one. And I know very little about it all, other than the concept.
That's all you need to know for trading, I guess
By the way, I have attached trading positions for USDJPY
It looks like USDJPY will continue to strength...
No wonder given that excess debt ratio in Japan
So that's why USDJPY appreciated (as correction )so much after there was depreciation. So the depreciation was the false picture to the fundamental information, which was caused by commercial traders
I still don't clearly get this in futures contact. When depreciation is expected (e.g. EURUSD) why commercial traders take the opposite side...exporters in Europe worry about the depreciation in EURO so they minimise price risk by taking long position does it make sense? it's not a forward contract; or are they really dump?
The only thing I can think of is they are already short somewhere somehow. There is a large short in Italian bonds for instance. Greece, Spain, Portugal perhaps. Maybe they are way ahead already on those positions, since a lot of them have fallen. It's just a guess.
I get it now...EURO futures contract for March 2017 is expected to be around 1.0727 so commercial traders anticipate it to appreciate higher around January and February.
What they anticipate is based what they see now on markets. IF something changes tomorrow they will adjust their futures so prices will react as well.
Pip run trading this? I'm short euro, aud, Jpy. Euro I could only get off a little as it popped above 105.60. Aud short from .7418. USD/Jpy from 113.24. Hard to get good fills.
Aud .7410 is key right now
USD/Jpy I've got on a short leash, small size, as it reacted the wrong way at first.
Dumped USD/JPY. It'll probably go up but during Brexit there was a flight to quality to the yen as well as USD.
Staying short euro as long as I can. Markets hate surprises. I was reading some of the press this afternoon and it was just like before Brexit and Trump. Lots of denial still. It was pretty clear to me that the press wanted a yes vote.
Took a little off at 105.12. I hate to do it but there's always another retracement somewhere.
Prime minister resigns after definitive NO vote. Basically, the people of Italy have given ECB the middle finger, we don't want changes. That may give way to early election and potentially an Itexit.
Still holding smaller Euro position after working my way out between 105.38 and .50. Added to Aussie short above .7440. Long USD JPY from 113.50
Aussie sort of giving me fits, so I'm giving it a wide berth. One of these days it will go down when the dollar goes up. Maybe.
Out, flat. Got stopped on Euro, obviously. Reentered short at 10650. Took a small amount back at 10633. Most of my profits came from long USD Jpy. So I took a modest amount out of the market, and managed to keep my skin intact. Going to watch now. Euro not trading to my liking.
This may be one of those times when you look back and ask yourself, "Why was I trying to buy X when it was in such a strong downtrend for such a long time? I'm standing aside until I see more evidence either way.
We may be getting into a Bollinger Band type of market where you turn the rules inside out and buy low and sell high. Which runs against the grain for this trader. I'm always looking for the ongoing trend,but if we don't have one it makes things difficult.
Aud looks interesting as a short. It's had a two step correction on the dailys. The only question is whether it stops going up right here or higher. Given the choppy nature of the market here, I'll wait.
I remember getting stopped out of that trade, right before it fell hard. Friday's action suggests more bearishness ahead on Aud. Still watching EUR vs Aud to see which is weaker on a daily basis. I've learned the hard way that shorting the stronger one, usually Aud lately, just doesn't work well.
I'm short USD here against Jpy, GBP, and Aussie. I'll explain later
Out. Saw the Aussie break up right out of the gate, thought the others might follow. Plus I thought we'd get weakness in EUR as a follow through from Friday. When it didn't, I felt USD might weaken a bit. Not so far, and Aussie just barely holding up.
I actually agreed with your decision. I am anticipating US dollar to finally gain strength again next week. By the way, if you don't want to play the inauguration, then better not trade next week. All major us pairs will likely to enter sideway (congestion) first before US dollar eventually gain strength
Anyway, I've got a business with polish zloty this week first. This undervalued currency's economy has just recovered from deflation. So My eye is on their interest rate decision this week.
I am holding on audusd start from 4 january and still I am look floating on this pair
my expectation this pair on tendencies bullish major trend
So buy euro sell greenback? I still stick to the opinion dollar is bullish in medium-term, even if its is misinterpretation of Trumpeconomics?
Long USD against euro from 1.0620, USD Jpy from 114.40, GBP 1.2039, USD Cad 1.3128.
USD Cad looks ready to break higher on hourly. Have just the tiniest GBP on because it's down so much. I just think the dollar selling is overdone. I had been looking to sell euro just below 1.0650 if it looked like it had run out of momentum
Take a look at Aud/Cad. Looks higher, so I'm short Cad, not Aussie. So far, so good. Things are starting to break down against USD. Hope it holds. . .
USD Jpy just got clobbered but everything else held down pretty well. Still long USD. JPY giving me fits though.
Slow steady pressure in USD now.
That went away for awhile. Still long USD. Got stopped on USD JPY, reentered smaller at 113.85. Added to GBP at 120.19
GBP will definitely appreciate today and tomorrow. I am not sure about US dollar though but fingers crossed. I will definitely make moves for US pairs Just before inauguration.
Euro not showing much momentum, but it is down for now. Cad not acting very weak any more. Looking to dump it soon.
Aud finally broke down.
And gold starting to move back down. Been looking for weakness there. Not trading it though.
I also think gold will gradually lose its value as inauguration is getting closer. The only reason I could think of that gold has been rising in value since the election is that new administration has not taken the office yet. Earlier today, Trump indirectly signalled that his administration will bring bigger effect than expected on inauguration on his twitter. He will definitely make a clear speech about his fiscal policy on inauguration.
Anyway, I've got a business with pound and euro first before I could play inauguration
So you think GBP will keep falling?
the target is 1.15. I wrote previously about that. Tomorrow expect it to renew bottom after May relentless spurn of saving connections with EU
Still long USD across the board. Using Cad short instead of aud as it seems weaker. Traded around stuff, got out earlier this am, reinitiated USD Jpy at 114.05, USD Cad at 131.50, Euro 106 even. Down slightly on day as I got stopped twice on falling USD Jpy last night. Never got a push down in Euro early am below 115.80 to make me whole again. Still hanging on to small positions as I still read USD strength.
Sold a little more GBP at 120.51
Flat. Going to reassess. It was all slowly going my way except the Euro. Trying to play defense first
Gold doesn't seem to want to go down now. Currently short GBP from 120.48. Long USD/Jpy from 114.13. Both on short leashes.
There's a few more stop's to take out first on the crosses (EUR and AUD) before the USD heads back up.....
Long term it's pretty clear now that the Trump administration wants a weaker dollar, as a strong dollar which has been the focus of passed administrations isn't what you want if your going to increase your (US) manufacturing which Trump is trying to do...
There is ECB interest rate decision later today.
They will announce 0 % interest rate as economists expect.
I will long EURUSD upon announcement.
Short euro 107.29, GBP 124.48, long USD JPY 113.71. Short Aussie.7565
Trying to hold on for awhile as I believe USD could run here
I would short gold too if I could
Are you sure with your decisions? Just wonder because Trump wants US dollar to weaken in order to boost US economy.
I hope you are right though...well fingers crossed
Not sure here, I was just going with the momentum on the tape, which has subsided for now. Don't like picking tops or bottoms, but we are due for some dollar strength. As for Trump, he can talk all he wants but the markets are bigger than him.
Stopped out. Still waiting for a bottom in USD.
Long USD again. It's like peeing into the wind. Still I see buying on the tape amidst the weakness.
And it would take a little while for longer term traders to tp and reverse which would require rallies
here is my current forecast for US Dollar http://brokerarena.com/news/live-trading-analysis-23-01-2017/
My position is that three weeks ago the dollar trade was crowded. Now, not so much. I'm staying with the longer trend. Except GBP where the tape is still positive. But there too I'm looking for any failure.
Out of dollar long. I've learned not to fight the afternoon trend in anything. Tape was sneaking up again. Watching USD Jpy for a break down now. 113.20 is key on upside.
Short USD Jpy 113. Stop 113.28, target???.
If you can't beat them, join them.
USD Jpy finished on lod I believe or pretty close. Added to short at 112.77.
Finally a winner. I've really been off in my trading, doing stuff I don't normally do. Like trying to pick a top. Or fighting the momentum. When i go with, everything just becomes easier.
I believe this is the third wave of correction on the dailys. Could be violent.
Sold my last piece on the move back to 112.70.
Retest of 108.50 in Euro USD?
What's the significance of 111.70 area USD Jpy?
Gold looks like it could run pretty good here too.
Gundlach: Trump Themes Mean Lower Dollar, Higher TIPS
Jan 23 2017 | 8:11pm ET
By Jennifer Ablan (Reuters) - Jeffrey Gundlach, who oversees more than $101 billion of assets as chief executive of DoubleLine Capital, has predicted a weaker dollar and more demand for inflation-protected securities now that U.S. President Donald Trump has "doubled down" on his stance regarding trade and securing jobs in America.
Trump's inaugural address "was a really isolationist speech," Gundlach said in a telephone interview late on Friday. "There was nothing conciliatory about it. You can see that Trump is unwavering from the themes he ran on."
The S&P 500 edged lower on Monday as Trump's protectionist stance sent investors scurrying for safe-haven assets.
This included an executive order formally withdrawing the United States from the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership, negotiated by Trump's predecessor Barack Obama's administration but never approved by Congress.
In his inaugural address, Trump lamented that "for many decades, we've enriched foreign industry at the expense of American industry," and said it was time to put "America first."
He said every decision on trade, taxes, immigration and foreign affairs "will be made to benefit American workers and American families," and pledged broad infrastructure spending for such things as roads, bridges, airports and railways.
Gundlach said a weaker dollar adds to inflationary pressures and higher interest rates and will make U.S. exports more attractive in foreign markets, particularly as other currencies remain relatively strong.
With regard to Treasury inflation-protected securities, he said: "I am not taking profits because I think there is another leg up. There is a lot of demand and investors are committed to the idea that rates and inflation are rising."
Gundlach said he still holds gold, which was down for the second half of last year. He said "sell hubris, buy humiliation."
Gundlach, known on Wall Street as the Bond King, said about gold: "Assets that fall in price become unloved, humiliated. Assets that are up a lot in price have many supporters, even though the prices could be at a peak."
Gundlach maintained his preference for non-U.S. stocks over U.S. stocks, citing the latter's post-election rally. "It makes sense to start incrementally allocating out of the U.S. and into the non-U.S.," he said.
The DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund posted a net outflow of $3.5 billion in December, its biggest one-month withdrawal ever. The fund, which launched in April 2010 and is DoubleLine's flagship, attracted a net $3.05 billion in new cash for all of 2016.
Looking pretty ominous for USD right here short term. I'm still short USD JPY after the bounce back above 113.
Just had a peek at hourly gold. Pretty long consolidation/ascending triangle. If it breaks out it's going to go far.
Japan Manufacturing PMI 2008-2017 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast
The Nikkei Japan Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.8 in January of 2017 from a final 52.4 in December 2016 and beating market consensus of 52.3. It was the highest reading since March 2014, supported by solid expansion in both output and new orders while new export orders went up the most in over a year. Also, employment went up at a faster pace and the newly-launched business expectations index was at 44-month high. Meantime, backlogs of works and stocks of finished goods fell less than in the prior month. “The Japanese manufacturing sector started the New Year on a strong footing," said Amy Brownbill, economist at IHS Markit. Manufacturing PMI in Japan averaged 49.71 from 2008 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 56.20 in January of 2014 and a record low of 29.60 in February of 2009. Manufacturing PMI in Japan is reported by Markit Economics.
P.S. looks like Japan's current account will likely to increase and expect Yen to strengthen
Aud/usd looking very weak on the 4hr, Struggling hh's.
Yeah it's all looking a little strange right now. I'm long Aussie but tight stop.
I'm looking to sell any weak pb's when London wakes up.
What's a on?
Got on eye on gold too may rev soon, don't like the long side with India currently
Pb it should have said
ah, pull back
Oh. I'm flat. Don't like the price action in Jpy.
Or gold, Euro, Aussie etc. It all looked like it was headed higher vs USD. Going to sleep on it
AUD's dominant trend is bull (long) - according to last week's COT report
EUR may not appreciate so much from the current level as the recent appreciation was expected because of the recent interest rate decision. Euro has still unlimited downside risk as the majority of informed traders have been on short side.
Gold may continue to appreciate as USD is continue to weaken. (also it's in bull trend - according to the last week's COT report
Gold--looks like some failure starting.
I see a long setup in USD Cad.
Wow that really fell apart. Anyway, short USD Jpy from 113.12 after being long from above 113.25. Out of short euro above 1.0750. It just keeps sloshing back and forth.
Tug of war going on in dollar. I'll wait to see who wins.
Carry trade. Take a look at Aussie/JPY.
Couldn't figure out why USD Jpy was going up at same time as EUR GBP Aud.
Gold breaking down now with Euro. Short euro 107.24. Stop .47. Target--parity. Just kidding.
LOL. Eur/Usd in the sell zone now they might try 1 more fake out with unemployment claims later, time to see how strong the bulls are now...
I am not sure why aussie has been depreciating since the market opening. Anyway, I am keen to buy AUDUSD today because it looks to me it's undervalued. From last week, the trend has changed in aussie from bear to bull(COT analysis). Given there is uncertainty with US dollar, it's time for AUDUSD to appreciate. The current depreciation could be a temporary shock from yesterday's news that Trump has withdrawn US from TTP.
I am keen to short USDJPY given there was a series of good news on Japan's current account earlier today
Dollar just doesn't want to go up. I thought for sure we'd get a good break with the selling in gold. So far it's all been met with buying of Euro, GBP Aussie etc.
Idk, it looks like the showdown is right here 10745 Euro, 113.35 USD Jpy. I'm long dollars from below. "Tri-S" is what Ben Lichtenstein calls it. Stuck short and stubborn.
Japan will report it's inflation rate tomorrow.
Given the current inflation rate information on US and JPY, USDJPY is clearly short candidate.
I've checked the Big Mac index (PPP model) too. US needs to weaken and Yen needs to strengthen
I'm out of USD Jpy now. Still holding Euro short. Stop at 10756
EURO will report its inflation rate next week.
Given the current forecasated info and holding every other things constant, the mean EURUSD is 1.0749
If it depreciates below this level, better either bring down the stop or take the profit
I'm out. I'll wait till this trading range is broken either way. Just getting chopped up trying to chase momentum, then it disappears.
107.20 key below. Above its 107.50 then the most recent high. The breakout from this range should move pretty well.
Aussie banks were on holiday today. Maybe that is why there has not been "joey fightback"?
USD/Jpy all of a sudden not going down. I tried to short it on the last bounce to the 113.40 area. When it didn't move down I got out. I have that as a key area 113.35 to .40. It certainly looked as though the pair would keep falling below 113.10. Now watching Euro, Aud, GBP for failure. Gold staying below 1200. Can't reconcile weak gold with a weak dollar.
Euro looking like it's definitely aiming for a res level or a number now weak churning hh's I'd say an exhaustive move is close, US unemployment claims coming up.
This wasn't expected but I did notice that the currency pair failed to cross 113 twice before it changed its direction on 30 minute time frame. When Dow Jones crossed its crucial resistance level of 20,000 for the first time in its history of over 100 years, investors all of sudden appear to want to invest in US stock market , resulting in excess cash inflow to US market, causing US dollar to appreciate ... that's what I think what happened
Have shorted USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY and AUDJPY upon Japan's inflation rate release.
JPY to strengthen for now because when I checked the calendar, there was nothing in its way. So until there is any other important macro news or Trump's surprise comment, I anticipate Yen to strengthen.
I also have checked my volatility indicator, - uptrend (strengthening in US dollar) has stopped for now.
Obviously a longer tf trade ?
I got stopped out. I was wrong about Japan's economy. They are in recession and has been in the situation for long time now. Yesterday Japan reported foreign investment in Japan. It was substantially negative which means both domestic and foreign investors are withdrawing their money in Japan and invest them in else where. Even though today's inflation report was positive, it did not surprise investors .
I completely ignored the fundemental side...and only focused on thr calculation. That was completely my fault.
The recent t depreciation in USDJPY was caused US dollar, ... Yen didnot strengthen at all.
It's definitely long now for USDJPY.
I bet it will appreciate to 126 level in the near future. And yes, I will soon initiate long term long positions at the right time
So you sold? Got stopped? I think tomorrow is a big day for greenback rally.
Didnt follow up as didnt think anybody was interested.
I'll post a chart in a bit with some more expectations and the euro showed this week the importance of having an expectation..
Anyways Yes sold the tl break like I said and it did go on to tank.. I covered 1 position at next structure and stopped out break even with other.
I agree it's certainly aiming for a number should get exhaustive move soon chart coming ..
When Euro announced the lastest interest rate, the expected mean price of EURUSD for next 3 month is 1.070 and next 6 month is 1.074. Thus, the current price is above the mean price and will expect to depreciate. But do not short it now. Short it when you detect the trend reversal, that is when there is excess speculation to form resistance to prevent the euro from appreciating more.
When BOJ left its interest rate unchanged yesterday, the expected mean price of USDJPY for next 3 month is 113.35 and it is currently trading at 112.81. So it is undervalued. But again, wait until your volatility measure indicates that there is trend reversal. Well, I've learned this through hard lesson as you guys know
Pound is undervalued and expected to appreciate to 1.2585
Euro is undervalued and is expected to appreciate to 1.0845
Aud dollar is done (it's at mean price)
Kiwi is overvalued and is expected to depreciate to 0.7208
Yen is overvalued and expected to depreciate to 112.29
This analysis is for long term trading
Spot on, exhaustion still hasn't come which is expected for the Eurusd as this up move is still correctional rather than trend until that happens it's not a sell(4hr) there was some great daytrading opps last week though on both sides....
Yes well the only problem I have with the USDJPY being a long term buy is that this will be the vehicle for many traders if Trump opens his mouth for devaluing the dollar as that alone could easily cause a 10% drop.
Pound, yen, aussie and kiwi are at their intrinsic value. So unless they deviate substantially from their current price, I will wait.
Only euro is undervalued. I think their intrinsic value is around 1.0773 and the current price will rise from today again after the pullback yesterday. I think yesterday's low will not break.
Happy easters, pip and swim
I'm short the Euro/USD from 106.55 area, since before the first break from that area. Just following the momentum, really.
Are you sure, swim?? I thought European session's downmove was pullback...
Euro's intrinsic value is 1.0773 and all other major currencies including canadian dollar have converged to their intrinsic value. Only currency that has underperformed was euro and yesterday's huge upmove was the uptrend signal. I mean that's what I am thinking...
Welcome back swim by the way , really great to hear from you again
I have 4 long positions and will hold them until they reach 1.0773 T.T ...
Well, I'm not sure about anything. It could be firming here above 106.
It's on a short leash for me now anyway.
And to you Sir
Very nice short indeed in fact excellent.i'm interested to know what was your reasoning as I trade those often ?. The Euro is on daily trend line support now and price is into structure so will no doubt get held up .
I felt that the break from the 108.50 109 area had caught traders leaning long. When it consolidated above 106.50 with little reaction up, I just figured the path of least resistance was still down. And the overall trend is still down, so I've been looking for excuses to get short.
Looks like Euro is going through congestion. It will probably wake up upon the opening of the European session. We have roughly 7 hours left before we can find out euro's next movement. Whether it's down or up, I think the next movement will be volatile.
It's been a while since we had an active discussion on this thread last time. so great to see old pals around here again
Yes. My trading has been stinko for quite awhile, so I've cut way back and am only taking positions where I feel I can hold for a couple of days at least. I do appreciate the company. I don't like to just have my own thoughts. I can easily get locked into positions, my thinking.
And 9 days to go for French elections which is going to be defining for the EURO currency going forward and the chances of an EU referendum. A Le Pen win isn't priced in as yet, it will tank if she cracks it....
I forgot about this but if euro is on the way to appreciate as I expected, I think it will converge to 1.0773 within next week. It's because usually, when there is an election, price depreciates due to the uncertainty in the politics. So euro needs to appreciate before it could depreciate. Just making up a reason
Here's another one. If a Le pen win is expected by the big boys then the Euro will rally, they will want it higher to short off.
I look at those another way the momentum in the up move, price and vol clues in the consolidation before the drop and the price structure to the left.
Aud/usd may have reversed (1hr tf) looking for longs next week after Easter expecting it to make res 7700 ish
Before we consider French election, there is one thing that I overlooked. US will release its yearly inflation rate later today.
I think this macro news will be a key event that will determine euro's final destination and I have bet on 'up'
Ok. Yep US news calendar is busy today but I won't be trading it till next tues after the hols and your right major news needs to be assessed. GL
I think euro is finally appreciating. I did suffer from European opening effect but I use hedging instead of stop loss so I only suffer from the spread I set, keeping my long positions alive. But I will avoid holding positions prior to the opening from now. Thinking of it, it was unnecessary loss.
I have reduced my long positions from 4 to 2 but as long as they reach 1.0773 or somewhere near based on new inflation rate which will be released later today, I will be happy
I am read certain news about rumor if there are some another country also want to exit from euro united, but I don't know for sure and if this occured might also can influenced on euro as currency
Yes there's a few countries talking referendum's but France is the biggy .
Early European session often shakes out, glad your onto it.
I've got a close eye on Eur/usd next week for long set ups. Tuesday maybe a slow start European open.
Today euro shows high liquidity because bid ask spread is just 1.
Parity condition and relatively expensive call option (only 52% chance it will appreciate above 1.0600 though, with strike price at 1.0600) indicates that euro is likely to appreciate.
So I Set a limit Long at 1.6210
Even if it depreciates I am still ready to take some profit through hedging Else I will take profit through spread trading (target is 1.0660)
The parity condition expects that in The long run that euro will appreciate from the current price level anyway. Also we still have time before the French election
Ps. The market hit my limit long and a little bit more down level, I have set up hedging.
Are you trading the pair using options? What about CFDs?
No I only trade on spot but when you have a good knoweldge of market system you can create whatever you want I have developed hedging and spread trading which will maximise my profit and minimise my loss. Now even if market goes the opposite way, my broker pays that expense, not me anymore ...
Euro doesn't look good today.
Volatility has fallen, suggesting that price will go through some congestion for a while.
May not trade today
I would consider a buy iff euro depreciates below 1.06330
The current price is too high given forward rate.
There is only 48% (below 50%) of chance that euro will appreciate to the next strike price of 1.06750 level
I been short U.S. Dollar since last year. On the weeklies have lower pivot highs and lows, my low term target before I can go long is below 80, so any good sized rally, all I be doing in adding to my shorts/hedged.
In Euro currency, been long since last year, on deep retracements add to my longs/hedged.
Still at good area to exchange U.S. Dollar hard currency into Euro hard currency in separate brokers account then you can trade Eurex without more exchanges. It is sort of your own ETF.
Could you please explain more what are the benefits of this method? Do you mean using brokers which offer contracts with delivery?
Following Doggy's question, I also wonder the benefit of this method because unless you earn interest, I think it's not easy to make huge profit unless you have banked a huge amount of money in your account...
Given that euro is at their intrinsic value and also there is the French election on Sunday, I expect euro to depreciate substantially either today or tomorrow. One thing for sure is euro will not appreciate much more at the current price level again because its at its intrinsic level and there is uncertainty with French politics. Take this lottery ticket and let's make some money together
You rode the 2 x retracements thru Feb & March?
Target of below 80 is 2014 prices.
Amazing long term trader, one must have strong nerves living thru those pullbacks
I been doing this awhile, at first I would travel to countries, open a bank account elsewhere, and exchange USD to let's say old German Mark(before Euro), when USD was high, you better off using monthly charts, in a number of years in which I have developed 9 year zones, until spot prices enter these zones I stay long currencies. SO when USD be bottoming, money would come out and back into USD. I have done well of just waiting it out, as markets have evolved, don't have to leave home like in the 80s, and send broker email saying how much to exchange from cash of one currency to another and if that country has tradable exchanges like Eurex, money stays in that currency plus can trade their markets. It is not trying to skirt around paying taxes as have used both taxable and retirement funds, paying what I need to have to. Have never taken any losses as I just wait it out, it is like long term reversion to the mean. And in my U.S. accounts will trade long term Forex and currency futures, so like a double servings, but I can then wrap options around positions on credit spreads or times of hedging open profits waiting for retracements.
You learn much about some indicators like Bollinger Bands other than what they were devised to do, same like RSI, MACD and even moving averages as some younger traders believe that old indicators are like for dinosaurs, I am an old dinosaur, don't need new-study old and you have to use your noodle and think outside the box. It is like studying the bands themselves.
Opportunities to add. I been trading my method since late 1992 and have become knowledgeable on hedging as that only way to contain risk, which I might add blossomed into how I trade stocks. Most years on futures side seldom outside of 5-15% of profitable future trades, so you have to do expensive options to CYA, but when prices hold, long way to other side and always trying to add on when medium/long term trends change for most traders. Most folks don't know when Buffet trades, he makes well on more of the options than the stocks. Options are not only for hedging, but to help cover losses of open profits, can be a cheap way of insurance. You can see on monthly chart of Euro of triple lows.
I don't know of any trader who trades as I do for length, so being "solo", have better change of it working as I never been good at following the crowd. I do have a "target" to take profit on 10% of a signal-use to be 50%, most currencies is $10k which helps with losses associated with hedging. But the method at some point, don't really think of it much, automated and 24 hour markets, less worry than before, have much less risk now than any other time in my life. When you can control good portion of your risk, you control most of your future. You eventually find out that years turns into decades, tech changes for the better as in 70s my PC was pencil and graph paper.
The idea came to me in the 80s, I had found Robert Weist who eventually authored book "You Can't Lose Trading Commodities", http://www.zoominfo.com/p/Robert-Wiest/1567267916, but I saw his method having risk too high for me to sleep at night, so speaking to other traders in early 90s on longer term trading of commodities, method has evolved for me. I don't have to make decisions of when or where as like any system, you keep working to make it better, have the answers before the questions.
Someone else version http://www.textbookx.com/book/Understanding-Hedged-Scale-Trading/9780071345569/
I feel like elite forum is more home but I have been at investing.com for a while since there are more active traders there. I have improved a lot - winning rate is over 90% now. I hope you guys are all good too
Kind of quiet in here. Echo! (Echo, echo, echo). Hope all are well. Been back hammering at it again after a few months helping a friend set up his truck. Paying more attention to risk now than anything. I'm still over trading I notice. I say I'm not going to do that then all of a sudden I realize it's happening again. Most of it comes from not wanting to miss an opportunity, I believe. Anyway sitting on my hands ahead of Fomc minutes.
Glad I got out of my euro shorts ahead of things. Sometimes following the rules actually works (don't trade ahead of a news release).
Ground my way to down slightly on the day and night. Not fun but it could have been a lot worse.
Euro back to a familiar range 1.1730-40 as I write. Commodity currencies up good on the dollar so far, while the euro and pound were lagging. Trying to keep an open mind.
Ended up scalping EUR and GBP long out of their trading ranges. Hard to hold on when it's been down, down for days. Back to positive.
Yup, things are going very bad for Pound, especially with households squeezed with inflation spike, letting down whole economy. Without much improvement on the horizon, the bias goes extremely bearish for British currency.
For Euro its correction of sentiments, as traders went too far outplaying each other guessing when Draghi makes U-turn. Will have to wait bit more as todays ECB minutes signaled.
EUR loving that 1.1730-40 area. I believe it is an over/under for the short term trend
Pound should fall again. It's still very bearish and once it hits the key resistance level at 1.289 then I expect a heavy drop (50 pips without news/100pips with news)
Euro is also bearish.
I'm short both from just above current levels.
Did get caught up in the runup of EUR this morning--NY-- and got stopped on a big lot. Not one of my better trades, as I could see from the chart it should bounce off the lower levels. I'm looking for this am's lows to be taken out soon.
I see Aussie creeping as well. I was short, but covered as I felt the recent weakness in EUR/AUD would continue eventually. Likewise for Kiwi vs pound. Basically the commodity currencies have shown more relative strength as far as I can tell.
Usd/Jpy I can't make out. I look at the chart one way, it's bearish. The other way, bullish. Right now it's saying risk off I believe if you look at it in context with the euro, Aussie etc.
We seem to be in the middle of some kind of correction in equities, being blamed on politics mostly.
Bond market the real wild card with them having to taper QE in the US for starters.
Just looked at EUR/AUD daily. It's basically sideways the past few weeks, sort of a toss up. I was going with yesterday's weakness in the Euro. The Aussie bounced off the lows way before the Euro. So I'll stay more on the EUR and Pound for shorts.
15 min EUR/AUD chart looks like it's holding 1.4850 now, so I don't know.
Sometimes I'll just throw them all at the wall and see what sticks.
Watching this .7280 level Kiwi. Short and long time frames look like they converge there. I'd probably be short if I had any margin left.
I guess you have to go out to a 4 hr chart before you see it in the Kiwi
Swim have you considered trading EJ and GJ? I find that they are better pairs to trade during Asian, sometimes, they move 100pips. imho, NZ and Aussie move better during US session.
Looks like EA is approaching 1.49 where it will reverse direction
imho, NZ is ranging. It's bearish but it's about to appreciate after retesting 0.727 level
Good to see you and others back ... I'll be back here full time soon again and we will be back in pip heaven ..just got a few balls up in the air to sort out .....
Yes it looks that way. I'm thinking of cutting my EUR short around 1.1710 if we get there.
euro imho, could still retest yesterday's low again during euro session. I don't expect much move during Asian though
Yeah it's just that now you have bears trapped down there under 1710. So I'm going to lighten up as we come down.
Just be careful if it retests yesterday's low again. euro could shootup from there as it needs to adjust to new inflation data from last session
there is high possibility that euro could shootup to 1.178 which is it's new fundamental price set by ECB in the last session
Yes like I said I'll be buying into it. If we get a momentum move below that I'll look to re-enter.
I don't really like the tape right now, so I may just stand aside.
Usd/Jpy now looking weak.
Yep , it will surely drop more during euro opening. Because it will move 100 pips. UJ imho, will enter the correction soon and could make a good profit with shorts after the pullback. But I would expect better volatility during US session
Sold a little usdjpy 109.46 30 pt stop
Closed some euro and GBP to get there.
Synthetic EUR/Jpy and GBP/Jpy short. I didn't realize that SnP was down that much. Looking for Asian equities to follow through.
Missed taking some EUR off at 1.1709. I blinked and it was gone.
Aussie now weaker than euro
It appears they are covering shorts from this am below 1.1710. Backdrop still bearish, but I kinda f'd that up so far. Usd/Jpy behaving just like the brochure said.
Never got any follow through in the currencies vs the dollar. There were a couple of chances to make a few pips short but, like last night, I failed to take them as I thought there might be more. My only successful position was short dollar yen, and I nailed it. But overall down on the day, up for the week. Looks like the tide has shifted back to weak Usd. I'll be looking for a place to buy the Euro on Monday.
Long Euro 1.1756, GBP 1.2875, AUD .7930, Short Usd/Jpy 1.0938, Us/Cad 1.2590. Looking for a push to scalp out of EUR and GBP. Might hold the rest. Cad in particular looks strong below 1.2560 or so if it breaks.
I like the price action so far. Nice and easy. Unfortunately I see resistance above in Euro etc.
I don't think there's much support below these levels in USD Jpy
You see everything lined up just below short term resistance against the dollar. Makes me wonder if there's a bigger move ahead.
Describe what you mean by "scalping".
In formal term, it's called speculation. When there is no data, price comes back to the mean. Since speculation's net position has been short for GBP and long for Euro, you simply sell GBp at the high and buy euro at the low and have tp until they create double bottom/top respectively lol
Well, that was a wild ride. Got stopped on GBP only, reentered in the 60s. Added more usdjpy and USD Cad. Just cut out Euro, GBP.
I'm trying to see where I said that. An example would have been last night during Asia session. Everything was lined up just below levels that looked like they would be penetrated. Euro at 1.1760, GBP at 1.2880. I was thinking there were stops on the other side to sell into. But there wasn't much of a push when those levels were violated. I ended up holding the whole wad till just a little while ago.
Holding USD Cad short now still to see if it can crack .60
Tape just turned funky again. Glad I cut most of my pos
Still long Aussie, Cad, Jpy. Mostly small except Cad. Playing defense first on this Monday.
Out of everything. Just wasn't moving. Still watching Cad. Need a plan there.
Not a bad Monday so far. I worked the plan. More later.
Kiwi looks interesting. Waiting for a pull back to .7320 ish
.7328 small buy nzd
Scalped out at .34. Going to take a break. Tape just no Momo.
Look at the action in Cad, that's why I don't hang around a bad tape. Couldn't push through .60, shot up to .88 at this writing. I don't like the action elsewhere, except perhaps Jpy where it appears I bought it back too soon.
I'm short usdcad from 1.2583. Looking for a push into the 60s maybe beyond.
Out .71. I guess that's what you call a scalp. It took less than 15 min and captured a momentum move down. Ok I said I was done trading for the day.. Up modestly on the day.
Possible reversal in usdjpy above 108.80.
There was a bit of trade below .80, so you have traders trapped there. Wouldn't surprise me to see a push above 109.00 short term and take out some stops.
Short usdcad 1.2570. short usdjpy 1.0880. long Aussie .7937
One of my mentors, who BTW was banned from the blog, used to say "Don't fade an afternoon move". It was only after watching Mark B. Fisher on YouTube and reading his book that I understood why.
##&+!!!xx*?+-&#!!!. That didn't work
Keeping an eye on this for when London opens Eur/Usd looks Exhausted on the 1hr and it's into structure.
I'm long from 1.1813 for a push up.
Actually long the world against the dollar from just below. Cad biggest position. Just got out of usdjpy short at a loss 1.0905
Flat, out of everything against dollar with a headache to go with it. No second push up, so I got out. If usdjpy breaks below 109.05 then 108.95 and holds I may short it, but right now it appears the tide has changed
Can't see US index going that much lower this week (higher tfs) as it's at major daily and weekly support I think we might have to wait for nfp next week for direction now.
Yes that may be why the tape is not moving now
It's ok, still up on the day.
Long term usdx with the down move this year ( which was a strong move) and as long as there's no major political US changes then you have to conclude the usd is going lower.
I'm starting to think it may be anticipating the fact that there's all these bonds out there that someone will have to buy when the treasury no longer does. It was mentioned in the last Fomc I believe. Tapering?
Golds looking quite interesting
What your saying sounds interesting and makes sense, I've never really been a fundamentals man myself, price action, order flow and what the big boys are doing. Usually strong moves like the usdx (initial BO stage move) continue.
couple of shorts from 1290 looking for 1275 ish. Then reverse position
Right, same here. But I like to have some sense of the fundamentals to trade, especially for how the market reacts to news announcements. When the news is partially hidden and hasn't been talked about too much, it can really drive things. My mentor used to call it a down card, like in poker.(vs. an up card where everyone knows about it.)
Gold has been having a nice quiet move up. Sure, there have been a few days where it's been talked about on CNBC. But mostly just doing it's thing. Looks like it will break out.
I so was hoping for a push down in usdcad. It closed right on the lows. I got a little, though.
I agree Gold has faked up and down last couple of days (hence the gold looks interesting comment) which means positions are exchanging for a move.
Everything just came all the way back pretty much. Glad I scalped out of everything. Reversal in USD Jpy was the first clue.I don't have the cojones to go long dollar yen just yet.
I'm not trading usdx crosses longer term either right now day trades both sides is the ticket for now
Short Euro 1.1810, AUD .7937, GBP 1.2894
Short Kiwi .7320. Makes me feel bad doing that. Yuk yuk. Been watching that since this am. Was thinking then to buy a pull back to the same level, but the picture has changed.
Cad still only eight points off the high while everything else is double that at least
Take a look at USD CHF hourly. Not pretty. I would not want to be long equities right now, nor usdjpy.
The correction when it comes looks like it's going to be severe doesn't it.
Yes and I'm usually (hopefully) not one to pick a top. Just shorted usdchf. I saw on CNBC that small cap stocks made a low for the year. Going to double check that.
Sold a little more GBP at 1.2885
You've said it 7 times. You are not scalping. You are short term day trading.
That's not scalping. Scalping is the taking of minimum ticks usually by market makers. No retail trader is successfully scalping from their computer, yet everyone uses the term anyway.
My apologies. I hope you weren't offended by my improper use of trading language. Wouldn't want to get fined by the Grammar and Syntax police.
Your aussie being held up with 4hr TL
Mmm. I was wondering. And EUR CHF synthetic not moving right way. Might just dump CHF. That was a shot in the dark anyway.
Closed 1 short 1284 , stop moved to BE +1 for the other short let it run to TP or Stop out
That's nice work sir. I woke up before the open and dumped. Obviously could have stayed in. I'll see about a retrace later.
The 5 am NY reversal train will be here shortly.
I didn't calculate it, but I'm thinking there is a pivot here somewhere
Yes the eur/usd - aud/usd will probably get held up a bit now I think.
There's price strucuture
I got some of the eur/usd selling I'm done now for 4hrs wait for US open
USD Jpy just bounced off 109.40. I'm looking for it to roll over here. Not trading it though.
Short EUR 1.1762, Aussie .7908, GBP 1.2834. Short Euro Yen 1.2863. Was short Aussie yen and Pound yen but got chopped up. If the equities can't hold 2450 SnP I'll be trying to get short USD Jpy again on top.
Basically I'm getting more bearish equities, so that means USD Jpy, EUR Jpy, AUD Jpy short I believe.
Looks like someone needs to get out of the Euro
Added another Euro short.
I've just a long gold open at the moment from 85
Just closed Euro Yen short at a loss. Still short Euro, GBP, and Aussie. Not one of my better trading days.
Keeping an eye on Aus/usd for short a bit higher,if price action confirms.
closed gold at 85 3hrs of watching paint drying.
Going to get some breaky
short Aus from 12
closed @ 84
keeping an eye on gold it's up to something for a move lots of faking on the 4hr and 15m
Shorted Euro 1.1752, Aussie .7889, gbp1.2813
I feel that it will break down, but this has been a tough trade. Sometimes I will use that, knowing others are getting chopped up too. It makes it hard to take a signal when it finally occurs. But trading is one of those things where you can get worse with too much practice. . .
Prob'ly ought to be short some yen cross somewhere here. I'm out of bullets.
Currently short Eurjpy 128.64, GBPUSD 1.2812, Short AUD .7892, Usdjpy 1.0937.
Aussie yen probably less volatile out of the bunch
But that's not saying much. I tried to hold on earlier above .8650, finally dumped it before usdjpy took off north.
Pretty treacherous trading the yen crosses. Lots of moving parts. Almost like being short options.
EUR CHF rolling over a bit.
If everything doesn't come unraveled now, I'm going to be sorely disappointed. And poorer.
They're tough alright, expecting it to break out, it's good to have a few more filters with those I think
Just saw the nzdjpy chart. Here I was trying to short Euro joy and getting stopped. Right idea, wrong execution. BTW silver too 17.00
Still short usdjpy, small Aussie. Everything else I stopped out on
Usdjpy just had what looks like a failed break retrace above 1.0918-20. Euro now struggling above 1.18
Not so much now. Really choppy. Cleaner moves are in the yen crosses I believe, except EUR.
It is, might have run out of steam again
I need to remember that a flight to quality, when equities are pressured, the euro generally leads behind the USD. So the EUR crosses tend to keep a bid across the board
IDK it still looks like they're going to open the floodgates on this yen. Only a matter of time.
Funny enough and you know I like being a contrarian , I've got the eur/Usd that's showing on the daily chart a day trading set up I like(of which I would go in heavy) that's says it's going higher on the bigger TF .
Hard to tell here whether it's risk off or just dollar weakness vis a vis the yen
Euro crosses Aussie kiwi GBP perhaps
Just closed Aussie short at a small loss, shorted usdcad. Still holding usdjpy short from 109.38 and lower.
Ty. 1.2545 on usdcad. It looks like it might finally be holding 1.2550 from the downside. Was short a couple days ago and got out. Been stalking it since.
Usdcad 4hr for example looks like a big inverted cup with handle. One of my favorites. Adds evidence to the weaker dollar view.
Markets have got to be thinning out as we approach US Labor day. Means patterns may not hold up. Of course, it will all be clear in retrospect.
Aussie now popping it's head up a bit.
It may need the labor day news to break down, if it's going to break down the pro's will be already short, they may use labor day to dump their shorts,just something to watch out for.
Sold 109.16 usdjpy. I had bought a few back around 109.
That looks like stop hunting to me. I've noticed that a lot of retracements against an established trend are 30 or so points from the lows. Newbies chasing, then getting stopped it looks like. Obviously it could always be something more
Will the real Dollar Index please stand up! It's like a game show here. I think it was called "What's My Line" in the US.
Also "To Tell the Truth"
I think you could probably whip out your Bollinger bands here and do a pretty good job.
Just bought AUD on that idea just for amusement.
I'm out. It's no fun trading this.
USD Jpy seems to be strengthening 109.25. I'm long AUD from .7897, EUR from 1.1803, short USD Cad 1.2525.
Flat. This market makes my skin crawl. Started to see the dollar strengthen a little and I was out. All it would take would be a few words from one of the talking heads to move this market either way now.
Short USD Cad 1.2526. Support at 20,. Storm heading straight through Gulf of Mexico, should give a bid to oil, Cad.
West Texas oil off 2.19 %. I think the pros are not impressed yet. Anyway Cad strengthening a bit.
Scratched that Cad. Now I'm going to lock up the platform so I can't trade anymore till maybe tomorrow. And I'm going to put handcuffs on.
I feel your pain.
There's a lack of professional activity (volume) US session which means choppy and erratic, I take my lead off US session into ASIA then London, I don't trade by throwing a dart at the board either.
And I was expecting Eur/Usd to go higher today US session.
Hope we're not going to a news driven market again.
That's the second time this week Cad has closed on H.O.D. Unfortunately there's so little liquidity to trade it.
Short USD Cad from 1.2525. It pushed below 1.2520 finally, then retraced up. I was all over it. It would be nice to have confirmation from the other currencies, too, but it's that kind of market.
Yeah lots of fake moves this week Ive been happy taking short term profits at supp and res areas this week. Just one of those weeks.
It throws off my rhythm. By the time there's confirmation, the move is just about over it seems. Or there's violent reversals like CHF during (today) NY session. If you trade like I do and try to catch retracements in the direction of the prevailing trend, it's not working that well. It suddenly dawned on me today that it's just a thin and directionless market, and that's why I was struggling.
Flat. Finally a winner. I just don't want to hang around this market.
Nzd finally catching a bid. That was worrying me too. Cad was up, but AUD, EUR, Nzd were down. I want to see them all moving together, more or less.
Too bad Victory isn't around. I'd like to get some kind of valuation number on NZD. Seems to have been sold a little too hard.
Pronounced H+S on the daily NZD though. Funny cause everyone is talking about whether the USD is going to strengthen or just stay weak. Well, it depends on what you look at. USD index is like 57% euro. That seems kind of silly in one way.
I think nzd gonna struggle to get another move lower its into major structure now
I had taken a long at .7214 earlier in the day but the tape was awful and I dumped it. Looks a lot more promising now. But the backdrop still stinks.
yeah pb into 7200 area would've been the daytrade all in hindsight of course
EUR big opening range, pivot above the market. I believe that may be a setup for a trend day (down). Have to go back to my reading.
Short Euro 1.1779
Short Euro 1.1784,83.
some EUR news out 20mins that may be a mover
down move could be a shake out
and the bb's are long, we'll see in 15m
Sometimes, if it walks like a duck, talks like a duck, acts like a duck, it actually is a duck. Heh heh.
That news seemed neutral to me. Market barely reacted
Out 1.1797. I'm pretty sure that wasn't my duck.
Finally made a few back short usdjpy under 1.0940, usdcad under 1.25. A better end to a poor week. Hurricane Harvey has strengthened. Should have some effect on things come Monday. I don't think it's been fully discounted yet. Look for oil, sp to sell. Further down pressure on USD?
Long AUD .7942, NZD .7246, short usdcad 1.2474, usdjpy from 109.25. All small except usdjpy. Ordinarily I would expect Monday chop but since last week consolidated most of the time, we may run a little today.
Keep long USDCAD from 1.2510. Do you think I should close this position? Dollar has no chances to rebound?
What do you think? It might, but it's not showing hardly any strength over many many periods. I would get out and think about it awhile. That's not how we trade.
Out of Usdcad at 1.2477. Added to short Usdjpy at 109.20. Out of Nzd at a loss around .7234. Just couldn't hold on. Still think it's going higher.
Short small amount of USDcad at 1.2488
Still holding usdjpy short from above.
Target is the old lows and below, not necessarily today.
Out of USDcad. I didn't realize US crude was down that much.
Dollar yen a bucking bronco.
Wow as soon as 5 pm NY came around they started hammering at it. Sold more at .08. No need to cover now.
Covered a little in the 80s.
Been awhile since I was on the right side of a momentum move like that. Man I've been stalking that trade for days.
Aussie got a little dinged up on the open. Kind of had a feeling about it. Sold out too early and sat on my hands while it went up. Finally get rewarded for some prudence.
Just remember always, it's the second mouse that gets the cheese.
Looks like the North Korean leader trades the currency markets too.
Just wish he'd call me up before his next launch party.
I can't really figure it out though. They fire a missile over Japan, the yen goes up. I mean, I'm not complaining but it seems to defy logic.
Out flat final cover 108.68. I'll probably cry later but I made back most of what I gave away last week. There will be other trades later.
Expecting USD retracement before the NFP, consumer confidence data was good enough to ensure labor market continues to pick up.
Short GBP USD 1.2923. Long USD Cad 1.2518. The way I look at it, you have the top pickers vs the trend followers at the moment. I'm long USD but I'm picking on the weakest ones. Nzd might be a candidate, but Aussie is strong and I don't believe they are necessarily going to completely uncouple.
Cad only really weak today. GBP, well the story there is ongoing. I'm not expecting that much since it's really counter trend. Just going with the pressure of the moment.
Shorted a little Nzd at .7242.
The Yen went up. But the DX went down. There are other concerns, like major hurricanes slamming the US, and Trump's grandstanding. It is all piddled into the mix I reckon'.
Usually I don't try to explain things too much. It uses a different part of the brain than the part we use for trading successfully. I just couldn't help but notice the irony of the situation. I mean you could say the same about the dollar right now. Trump, hurricane, dollar catches a bid out of nowhere. I got caught earlier today on the wrong side of USDcad, pushing too hard.
Sold a little more Nzd at .53. Don't have lots of confidence in this one, just going with the flag or soon to be pennant perhaps.
Flat. Going to wait to see what London brings. Probably more chop.
Wow nice move. I missed it. Even at eight this am I was short Nzd from .7238, but scratched it when it wouldn't move. That .7235 level seems key now.
Wow what's this? GBP rallying, breaking above 1.2925? Crazy.
Gbp Jpy looks like it's risk on. Everything looks good till you look at the daily chart. Big resistance at 144.
The hardest part of these short covering runs is to resist the temptation to jump in after it's run. There's no good pullbacks to enter. You'll probably see a spike at the end.
Hope you're still long gold
EUR looks kind of broken right now
Haha that's funny I just read my post haven't been here in a bit. Been scalping the EUR from the long side. Missed just about all of the down move in the dollar, still managed to take some money out of the market. Feels so good to have liquidity after the summer doldrums. Much tighter, and wasn't really used to it. Mostly just watching, as I don't want to chase, and I really don't want to be short anything against the dollar right now. Market has had a good move, going to let it consolidate a bit. Moved my size up a bit today, still playing it close and letting a few out as soon as they turn green. Nimble just feels better.
Yeah it's been a good last few weeks got the expected breakdown on the USDX
Sitting on long USD positions across the board. Just looking for some short covering, going with the tape.
Out on the push up/down. Maybe it'll continue but I don't like hanging around against a very well established trend like that. Still a nice way to start the week. Hard to buy the USD Jpy after the gap up, but the tape was holding after the first push down. I know because I was short Aussie yen and I saw the yen just stop going up. Sometimes the best trades come out of spread trades like that (crosses).
Usdcad really sluggish on the push up. Just didn't want to get out of it's own way. Usdchf on the other hand was still holding last time I looked.
The move up in USDJpy looks like it caught some who were still short USD Friday and pushing a little too hard. But these types of moves generally don't last. I need to see some consolidation, at least one or two retests before I'll be willing to say the dollar has bottomed.
That being said, there's also a lot of dollar bearish sentiment everywhere. Maybe a short term bottom.
Looks like someone woke up to the London open and instead of being up on their USD shorts, they had to puke them out.
Gold in correction as well. Going to sit on my hands for awhile. Up well and don't want to give it back. It's a Monday after all, Chop Monday usually.
yup corrections all round unless NK sends some nukes
Haha. Actually that's not funny. I could be on the receiving end. Haha.
Right now I'm on the edge of the biggest baddest hurricane to hit Florida in a long time. So I don't have time to worry.
well I hope it doesn't come your way these natural events can be bloody scary
It's on the west coast now. We are just getting the outer bands here in Jacksonville. Winds are gusting pretty well, and steady rain, but it's manageable right now. I should be busy this week bringing supplies to South Florida.
Here's 1.2005 break point. Not taking this short.
Market is just meandering now.
nice I'm waiting for any price acceleration north see if it fakes out 1.2020 for a sell
What I don't like is I see Cad, GBP still kinda strengthening. Like to see everything firing together more or less. But I was thinking along the same lines. Still watching USD Jpy and USD CHF as they were strongest earlier.
Leaving this slop to you. Going to nap awhile.
My original plan was short Usdjpy if it got to 109.40 area, which seemed a long shot last night. But here we are. Going to lay off of it for now. When a market moves that fast it just gives me the willies. Too much risk I guess either way.
I like it when the market does what you expect on a Monday
I'm done till London
Feels to me like we are in No Man's Land as far as USD goes.
I think we're going to see usd put in a correction daily t.f. so buy dips
Yes I'll buy that. Was looking at USD Cad earlier for a long but I'm really tired after everything. Learned the hard way not to get into stuff if I'm not sharp.
Short Aussie .8020, Long USD Cad 1.2211.
Short small amount of Euro 1.1955. Added to usdcad at 1.2113
Certainly looks from here that correction is gaining momentum. Missed a pull long off 109.40 usdjpy.
Long usdjpy 109.45.
Added at 109.40
Covered some Aussie at 80.03
EUR won't let go of .50. Just taking it's time.
That's what we want to see pips in the bag
Trying to be patient here. Really long USD Jpy from 109.38 now. Looking to pare above . 40.
I'm too heavy, but I see what I see. Still long the world USD.
Free money above 1.2120 usdcad. Heh heh
nzdusd going to be great fun trading next 10 days, lots of volatility, tight election watch the mover, the polls..
Mmm. I'm still long USD. Taking some heat except usdjpy. Tape is really grinding.
Out of Aussie at a loss around .8825. Added to EUR short @1.1957
Not touching this slop. Euro and Aussie basically directionless. I look at their 4h charts, it looks like they are in the middle of the B wave of a correction, which says they ultimately go higher, maybe not for a few days or more.
yeah the current move is on the higher tf context, busy calendar this week
And I've still got the expectation of a USDX correction north on the daily we'll see over the next few weeks, but hey have your process in order and play your set ups as always
Hmmm. . .if the Euro is going to break the daily tf for instance, which visually I could see, I still am looking for a test above the current level up into 1.2050, then failure. Today there was pretty good rejection below 1.1950, now consolidation above. Short term looks bullish still, along with the Aussie. But I'm looking at Cad, Jpy which have broken down already. Mixed bag.
If we start breaking down again below 1.1950 then I'll change my tune. I've seen setups like this where it looks like the all clear has been given for the trend to resume and it's a trap for the eventual reversal. So I'll be looking for a push up that fails.
Another thing that's bothering me is that since yesterday Asia then London the tape just got really really choppy and it had been smooth sailing up until then. It's worse now. Liquidity being drained?
Sold a little at 1.1982. Stop is at 1.2006, which is a little bit tight. We never got a break of the opening range to the upside.
Well, let me qualify that. We did, but just barely and it just failed tentatively. Need to see a push below .60-.70 then .50. If we slice through like a hot knife and butter, I'll increase.
Sold small GBP at 1.3268. Trading that feels like throwing gas on a fire. Hehheh.
Sold a little more at 1.3275.
I didn't realize when I put the GBP on that it was already down like 50 pts off the o.r. Oh well. . .
Still short. Added short AUD .8020, long USD Cad 1.2148
Please disregard everything I just said about being bullish
Oh snap! Not enough bullets. left. in. my gun. . .
Flat. Kaching, kaching, kaching. There's probably more to be had but I'm too busy now.
That was almost better than a romantic interlude.
Lol good job.. pays to be fluid in this game
Rough market. Which means I'm not in sync. Had several chances to take profits on the short side. Didn't take them, ended up stopping out at a loss. Got back in EUR short 1.1913. Very tight stop--if it doesn't work that's ok, but I still believe it's going below 1.1870.
Short AUD .7997. Still short EUR.
Flat. That definitely wasn't any fun.
Watching the usdx like a hawk next week, there's definitely weakness in the down move now daily tf and the big boys have been taking profit so a correction is on or not far away .
Merkel will be priced in the Germany election with the euro so the only surprise there will be a terror attack like in the run up to the uk election.
Nz election next week may put the nzd on a bit of a roller coaster ride, it's still tight so not priced in and it will fly with national and probably spike down with labor.
Who's favored in NZ? Any take on it besides what you just said?
I'm assuming for now it was short covering in the Euro Friday.
So setup for me is sell rallies, or just sell but election runup generally means wide chop.
Pro's, business-growth-migration(labor), home owners will vote national because of massive rises in house prices.
Con's, The leader has no personality and they are seen as the nasty party, NZ has poverty issues, low wage economy and the people want change.
Pro's, charismatic leader who is promising the world.
Con's, No real policy, flip flopping on taxation policy.
I don't see labor getting in as they're too vague in policy but they have grabbed people's attention.
There's a possible head and shoulder top on the Eur/Usd daily chart not that I trade the actual pattern but the psychology behind them.
Been short everything against USD since 930 NY time. Caught some of the move down in GBP. Still holding AUD, Cad, Euro, GBP short. Looking for the next push to exit.
Out of mostly everything. Still holding little bit of AUD, EUR short. GBP is really fun to trade when it's not smacking you in the face. Haha.
Flat. Nice trading day. Or really just 2 1/2 hours. Wasn't looking for much of a trend, so I'll take what I got, which was good. Euro was stuck to that 1.1950 level for awhile. We'll see if it gets revisited.