I no longer trade or analyze the currencies, just update the charts once a week. I'd been wondering why there was repeated talk of the 'falling Dollar', my charts didn't seem to indicate much 'falling'. After the Friday Close I was changing charts' contract month from Sep to Dec and discovered my DX charts were still on the JUNE contract . . . The result of the 'discovery' was to see if I could determine a possible bottom — the 90 area.
I will look a EUR/USD 122 as a difficult area to get through and we are about there. Will be looking for a fails attempt at ths area. Tis pair has been trending strong since July. You no see?
Took me several stabs to find the highs, so all I can do now is add to my short position. I am very long term Commodity trader and will stay sometimes several years till completed, so I can't even think of buying till around 77-78 area. I exchanged third of currency account into Euro-currency from USD in late 2015 and trade Eurex instruments to boot in that account, have done so with 2 other currencies as well. An easy way to get money working without paying fees all the time, LOL.
Hi eurusdzn. The EUR/USD began this rally back in Dec last year, coinciding with the beginning of the increase of the Effective Federal Funds Fate - EFFR, and the Target Rate/Range. The next FOMC Meeting is Sep 19-20 , and 'associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chair.' There are 2 more meetings after that - Oct then Dec, so time enough for a rate increase. There's a band of eyeballed S/R for the EUR/USD between 1.1665 and 1.25-1.265 . A Retracement Fibo at about 1.2174 , then the next fibos at about 1.239 and 1.26 and the top of the eyeballed S/R range. If the Fed do not raise the FFR at this meeting, there is the ' p o s s i b i l i t y ' that the Euro will continue to rise.
Hi Handle123 . Looking at various lines, I'll make a revised target of around 88.40 , presuming the Fed do nothing till the Dec meeting, when they ' Will ' , , , raise the FFR. What I can't see is the Dollar dropping to 77-78 . . . what on earth would be happening to the World economy to cause that kind of drop ?
Dollar is in bear market. So be ready to short it. Anyway, on a short term basis, DXY is already oversold. Mean reversion / dead cat bounce is coming. If 91 holds, we can see at least 92.50, maybe 96, max 100/101. Graph : CM