Alright, here we go. Technically: Yes, we're at a multi-year low. That's a large part of it. Additionally, we're at marginally oversold dailies and hourlies. We're seeing a potential double bottom (triple if you want to get literal). There are .1425 (.1750) dnt's and loads of corporate resistance at .1425, .1405, .1375 and below. There is much less resistance to the up side. A good deal of the work pushing down seems to be momentum funds who will bail out at a break of .1520ish. Fundamentally: I think the market's expecations of the BoC is too high. The BoC gave some hint with their "modest" comment regarding rates, and as the strength of their currency continues to take it's toll on Canadian manufacturers and exporters (google news on "Strong Canadian Dollar" for more) they'll begin to see this as acting as a rate hike or two on it's own. Employment is slowing as these companies (ex. energy) hire less and layoff to make their business efficient. Oil is topping (unless there is war against Iran soon), and we're coming out of the winter into the Spring. The Canadian dollar is just the "sweetheart" of the month (two months, whatever). So everyone's piling into it. Euro has uncertianty, Aussie is looking weak as risk begins to assert itself with growth of the Antipodean currencies (Kiwi for same reason). Yen? Heh...no. So the Loonie is the darling. And as usual, the market doesn't understand "moderation" but is driving by greed and irrational thinking - which is often accompanied by a sharp correction when truth doesn't turn out to be as extreme as investors thought it would be. Each reason I've cited alone would not be worth making the bet I have against the Loonie. But together, they strike me as being logical. And while markets can fight logic for a while, they inevitably succumb to logic over the long run. -Ivan
I am more of a technical trader and not very good at sorting out the fundamentals. I do have great respect for those who can though. I have the current price at a key reversal point that dates back to the begin of the climb from 1976. I also use what I call advance pivots on long time frames. As I type this the Monthly pivot for USDCAD for Feb is 1560. While this is not a blind statement and I always need confirmation, there is a very strong desire of price to return to equilibrium before it seeks its next direction. I have been very successful with this concept. What makes this time frame interesting to me is that I have these same types of alignments on Gold, Bonds, Oil, Eur, JPY, and CAD. Also, I have strong support from my LT studies on the dollar index. I realize things could get whacky this week with the data, and I may stand aside temporarily if things move strongly against me, but I am very encouraged by what I see. That's the best I can do. DRT PS - Also, I did not spend a lot of time going back thru the thread. I wll do that this evening. Thanks for pointing this out.
I have another huge long position @ .1453. Stop is way down at .1295 I still have most of my other positions open too.
Do you mean I have to wait for GOLD to hit 1000 or so before I take a long postion. hehe. I am being patient. Just tired of seeing this red color on my P&L everyday. Maybe I should stop looking at it.