This is an update to the blog posted yesterday <b><a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/07/aa.html">Alcoa (AA) - Earnings Preview and Vol Trading Pattern</a></b>.
AA is trading $11.09 with IV30™ down 8.5%.
In yesterday's article I noted that:
AA has followed a consistent earnings pattern for four out of the last five earnings starting with the 4-7-2009 cycle and ending with the last earnings cycle on 4-12-2010. Specifically, a straddle sale at the close on the day of earnings and a purchase back the day after was a winner each time.
AA had earnings last night, the Options Tab today (after earnings) is included (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/07/aa_13.html">in the article</a>).
We can see the ATM straddle is now worth $0.41. Yesterday, the straddle was worth exactly twice that; i.e. $0.82. The one day trade would have turned a 50% profit ex-commissions. The updated earnings and dividends stats are included (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/07/aa_13.html">in the article</a>).
This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.
Details, trades, prices, vols, charts here: http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/07/aa_13.html