We all read it everywhere. Soc sec, medicare, etc... Unfunded 30-40T. Total real liabilities are many trillions over assets. We are all bankrupt.
Let me pose an alternative thought, a very simple one. If you hold the money supply fixed (or relatively fixed), medicare spending or any liability can never grow sustainably to these epic levels simply because there is not enough money out there to purchase them in these quantities.
Finally, a little extra thought. Think of medicare spending like our China import addiction. Imagine we are exporting medicare spending to never see it come back. Again, a false premise. Even if medicare spending makes up 50% of GDP going forward, all of the workers in the health care space will actually have money to spend and circulate.
Even borrowing to pay for it poses an interesting dilemma. Granted you don't print new money, the only ones willing to lend in perpetuum will be the new health care economy's workers. Even then, with a relatively stable amount of money in the economy, it seems to me that there will be inevitable price pressure downwards on health care services. There is a fixed amount of savings to invest in bonds at any arbitrary interest rate, and that will pose a practical limiter to medicare spending in government deficit.
I guess this means if we ever get a health care bubble with 40-50 PEs across all of the space, that is your opportunity to short.
I see enormous price pressures coming forward on health care providers (10 years out).
There should be a law stating that the minimum health insurance deductible would be $5000.
Then people would truly realize how corrupt doctors are.