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Ultimate Journal

  1. Ultindicator (ultimate indicator). Ultosculator (ultimate oscillator). The ultimate EOD ES trading system.
  2. Prediction still valid.
  3. The Ultindicator made an all-time low of -37.15 on 4/14/00, heralding the disastrous decline to come (see attachment). In the next post, will history repeat itself?
  4. Just eight trading days ago, Ultindicator made its lowest reading since 4/14/00. The accompanying anomalous behavior of the Ultosculator means that long-term investors can kiss their retirement goodbye for a couple of years.
  5. Can you give a little summary of how you use your home-made indicator?
  6. Conventionally. I use the osculator as all traders use osculators, to bias trades in the direction of the trend. In my case I am looking for the point when the accustomed intraday misdirection reverses into the trend direction to catch the HOD or LOD.

    I use the indicator rarely, as it usually mirrors the osculator. IMO indicators are only good for finding extremes of sediment. Were I a swing trader, I would reverse on the reversal of the indicator.

    It it is that spirit that I call a major market downturn based on the historic turn in sediment on the daily scale.
  7. You were warned three posts up. Ultindicator now making lower highs. Ultosculator now not making large peak values, and residing more at its trough. And last night was new moon.
  8. It is not looking good for the widows and orphangs. Your mother-in-law on sociable insecurity will be moving in with you soon. Ultindicator and Ultosculator readings continue to be biased to the negative. Volataility remains at hysteric highs. Do you know where your dollars are tonight? First money was cows. Then it was metal. Next it was paper. Now it is electrons: you can't eat it, fondle it, or even burn it any more.
  9. At 11.07, SPX Volataility has reached a level not seen since the 7/24/02 value of 12.96, near the bottom of the previous bear market. Except that now we're at the end of a bull market. Are you 100% money market in your 401Ks yet?

    Neither Ultosculator nor Ultindicator readings indicate any change in bearish sediment yet.
  10. The good news is also the bad news. Volataility lessened on a long bar today. Good, yes? Good, no. Lower volataility means better trending. And the deepening Ultindicator and Ultosculator readings mean the elevator hasn't hit the sub-abasement yet. Where is YOUR bank keeping the money it pays you 5% in your money market fund?

    Edit: I can read a trend as well as the next guy. My readership is dropping like a suprime lender's stock, judging from the downloads of the charts. I won't post them any more. Thank you to the faithful few. Fuck all the the rest of you. Maybe you'll remember the charts when I'm a regular commentator on CNBC. I'll have my hand up some dumb chick's ass like a ventriloquist while she reads my stuff from the teleprompter, wiggling my fingers in her to make sure she makes the right face to go with my forecast.
  11. The ES community, caught in the ever-tightening thrall of SCT, utterly failed to appreciate the power of the Ultindicator. So now I appeal to the pitiless logic of the NQ mafia here (all four of us, according to the current count of today's poll) to consider the Ultindicator's value. Attached is a long term daily chart. The third pane from the bottom is Ultindicator. The horizontal red line is the highwater mark of 29.62 reached on 3/17/03. On 9/4/07, we saw the highest reading since then of 27.64, suggesting a long-term turning point.