https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...e-paint-bleak-picture/?utm_term=.3390dcd8af75 Trump’s internal poll numbers are out. And both they and his team’s response paint a bleak picture. For days, President Trump has denied a New York Times report that his internal polling data showed him in deep trouble in key states in 2020, claiming the Times simply made up the numbers. It didn’t. He made up the denial. And it appears he is in as bad a shape as the Times said he was. ABC News has obtained the polling data, which show as bleak a picture for Trump as the Times has indicated. Trump trails Joe Biden by 16 points in Pennsylvania, 10 points in Wisconsin and seven points in Florida, and the president leads by just two points in red Texas. These numbers largely echo the limited public polling we have been seeing on the 2020 general election, which is also brutal for Trump and which he also claims is bogus. The numbers are remarkable. But just as remarkable is what the Trump campaign is saying about them. First, it is important to note that, after days of Trump denying the numbers were real — “They reported Fake numbers that they made up & don’t even exist,” he said — his campaign confirms they are. Campaign manager Brad Parscale told ABC News the numbers are indeed legitimate but they are old — from March. The fact that Trump falsely denied this data existed is important to emphasize — even for a president for whom these false denials have become so commonplace. But perhaps the bigger takeaway from Parscale’s comment is this: They know how bad Trump’s numbers are, and to pump them up, they are apparently relying upon something called an “informed ballot.” Here’s what Parscale told ABC: "Since [March], we have seen huge swings in the president’s favor across the 17 states we have polled, based on the policies now espoused by the Democrats. For example, the plan to provide free health care to illegal immigrants results in an 18-point swing toward President Trump.” To the layperson, that looks as though he is saying there has indeed been movement in Trump’s direction. But if you look closer, it seems as though Parscale is not just talking about straight head-to-head matchups; he is talking about polls that rely upon respondents being primed with certain issues. For example, pollsters will often test how their issues perform by taking an initial head-to-head and then informing the respondent of their candidate’s or their opponents’ positions on something. “What if we told you these Democrats are all socialists who want to ban hamburgers and open the borders to every member of MS-13?” or something like that. That is what Parscale is referring to when he says “the plan to provide free health care to illegal immigrants results in an 18-point swing toward President Trump.” Trump campaign spokesman Tim Murtaugh on Thursday also seemed to indicate the campaign’s claims of good polling numbers were based upon these kinds of informed ballots. “The new data tested issues Dems are running on," Murtaugh tweeted. "In all 17 states polled, POTUS leads.” Again, this seems to suggest Trump leads only when respondents are primed after the polls “tested issues Dems are running on.” There is no way Trump, with an approval rating of about 40 percent, leads in every state tested without manipulating the matchup in some way. I asked the Trump campaign to confirm or deny they are referring to informed ballots. It has declined to comment further. Why does this matter? For one, I have long said that if you are talking about the informed ballot, you are losing. If the campaign needs to resort to these numbers, that says a lot. And second, we do not know what kind of issue descriptions there are. Sometimes these informed ballots are done for legitimate reasons; sometimes they are hugely slanted statements, like the one above, intended to goose the polls and make them as rosy for the candidate as possible. In any case, they quite simply cannot be relied upon. And the fact that the Trump team is apparently playing them up suggests the situation is as bad as the Times — and the public polling — suggested.
First just a reminder what a lying piece of shit Trump is First, it is important to note that, after days of Trump denying the numbers were real — “They reported Fake numbers that they made up & don’t even exist,” he said — his campaign confirms they are. Campaign manager Brad Parscale told ABC News the numbers are indeed legitimate but they are old — from March. The fact that Trump falsely denied this data existed is important to emphasize — even for a president for whom these false denials have become so commonplace.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...-biden-dominates-trumps-reelection-in-trouble Swing states: Biden dominates, Trump’s reelection in trouble by Paul Bedard | June 14, 2019 11:13 AM Former Vice President Joe Biden dominates his rivals in several swing states where President Trump is facing high disapproval ratings, a potential sign that the White House door is opening for the Democrat. New Zogby Analytics battleground polls show that in two “blue wall” states that keyed Trump’s 2016 victory over Hillary Rodham Clinton — Michigan and Pennsylvania — voters disapprove of the president. In Michigan, 61% disapprove of Trump and in Pennsylvania it is 55%. The two states are being targeted by Biden, and other Democrats. Biden leads the Democratic pack in Michigan with 27% and in Pennsylvania with 46%. Pollster Jonathan Zogby noted that Trump won the two states by a hair in 2016 and now appears weak in both. “The president has some work to do in ‘blue-wall’ states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan. Both were historic wins for the president in 2016, and are key to his re-election in 2020. Trump squeaked by Hillary Clinton in these states. His low approval ratings in Michigan and Pennsylvania could open the door for Joe Biden!” he said in his analysis. He provided the polling on Trump's approval ratings and the Democratic primaries to Secrets. Biden leads rivals in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Wisconsin by 8 to 31 points. Sanders is second in every state except Wisconsin where Sen. Elizabeth Warren has the edge for second in the Zogby Analytics survey. “It means Joe Biden is the clear front-runner for the Democratic nomination, and is winning big in very important states that Democrats need to flip blue in 2020,” said Zogby.
https://www.abc12.com/content/news/...higan-especially-against-Biden-511302482.html Poll: President Trump faces uphill battle in Michigan, especially against Biden (6/14/2019) - Poll results released Friday show President Trump would face an uphill battle to win Michigan during his 2020 re-election campaign. EPIC-MRA poll results show only 32 percent of likely Michigan voters would definitely vote for Trump. That is a 1 percent increase from a similar poll conducted in March. When asked whether they would support Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden head to head, 52 percent of people polled opted for Biden while 41 percent chose Trump. Biden was the only Democratic presidential hopeful who pollsters asked about in a head-to-head match-up against Trump. Trump got a 40 percent approval rating among the likely Michigan voters polled while Gov. Gretchen Whitmer got a 49 percent approval rating. A total of 57 percent of people polled gave Trump a negative job approval rating while 45 percent gave Whitmer a positive approval rating. The poll was conducted by phone from June 8 to 12 with 600 likely voters with a margin of error of 4 percent. Forty percent of people who responded identified as Republicans while 43 percent identified as Democrats.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/16/us/politics/trump-campaign-pollsters-fired.html Trump Campaign to Purge Pollsters After Leak of Dismal Results When you can't even hire people to whisper sweet things
"They reported Fake numbers that they made up & don’t even exist."-Donald J Trump Trump Campaign manager Brad Parscale told ABC News the numbers are indeed legitimate