Trigger: BZUN Hits a Technical Trigger, Right Now

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by CML_Ophir, Aug 21, 2018.

  1. CML_Ophir

    CML_Ophir Sponsor

    Trigger: BZUN Hits a Technical Trigger, Right Now
    [​IMG]


    Date Published: 2018-08-21

    Disclaimer
    The results here are provided for general informational purposes, as a convenience to the readers. The materials are not a substitute for obtaining professional advice from a qualified person, firm or corporation.

    LEDE
    Even though we can see that Baozun Inc (NASDAQ:BZUN) stock is up 366.43% over the last 2 years, in that same time frame, using a the CML moving average / momentum (Mammoth) technical signal with an empirically tested trigger, has created larger returns of 1035%.

    There comes a point, after all the charts that are shared on CNBC and social media, when we simply must examine, in truth, whether technical trading has actually worked in the past, and if so, which signal, how is it generated, and what are the historical results -- explicitly?

    [​IMG]


    We are looking for answers that are empirical and explicit, not just lines on a chart, not one example that looks good.

    As of 8-21-2018, BZUN has just triggered a bull mammoth pattern as long as it stays positive on the day (an up day). The company reported earnings about a week ago, fell off of the news even though it was a beat on both revenue and EPS. Since this is a Chinese ADR, and political news about the trade war could move it abruptly.



    ANSWERS: Baozun Inc (NASDAQ:BZUN) CML Mammoth Technical Trigger
    The idea behind all of this, and all technical analysis, is that past price behavior and key levels are watched by so many people, that patterns can repeat, and if those patterns can be identified ahead of time, they can create higher probability trades than those entered without them.

    The breakout from the CML Mammoth attempts to find these bursts -- based on tens of thousands of historical trades and machine learning.

    The goal, of course, is to find these breakouts before they occur and to scan the market for the best historical performers.

    Rules
    * Open the long 60 delta call (in the money call) on the day the CML Mammoth has been triggered and coincides with upside momentum of at least a 1% up move.
    * Close the call at expiration.
    * Use the options closest to 14 days from expiration. In this case, since BZUN only has monthly options, those would be the closest.
    * Always avoid earnings -- irrespective of the trigger and momentum, this back-test closes 2 trading days before a scheduled earnings date.

    * Use a 50% stop and a 50% limit (close the position if at anytime before the 14-day the call option is down 50% or up 50%.)

    This is a straight down the middle bullish bet -- this trade wins if the stock rises and will lose if the stock does not.

    EXPLICIT RESULTS
    Owning the 60 delta call in Baozun Inc (NASDAQ:BZUN) over the last two-years but only after a CML Mammoth was triggered had produced these back-tested returns:

    BZUN
    Long 60 Delta Call
    Signal: CML Mammoth

    % Wins: 61.7%
    Wins: 29 Losses: 18
    % Return: 1035%

    Check it out Yourself: Tap Here to See the Back-test
    The mechanics of these back-tests and everything in the TradeMachine® are such that it uses end of day (EOD) prices for every trigger, both entry and exit.

    We see a 1035% % back-test return, which is based on 47 trades in Baozun Inc. A bullish signal triggered from the CML Mammoth is designed to objectively pinpoint the beginning of a short-term period, using moving averages, momentum, and volatility oscillators, when a stock is likely to move higher.

    It's a model based on several indicators rolled into one signal and is based on probabilities, not absolutes, so it won't work all the time. The full details, including not only the empirical modeling but also the full closed form equation, and live scans for breakouts, are all available to CML Trade Machine members.

    Looking at Averages
    The overall return was 1035%; but the trade statistics tell us more with average trade results:
    ➡ The average return per trade was 28%.
    ➡ The average return per winning trade was 85%.
    ➡ The average return per losing trade was -64.5%.

    Technical Details
    For the details about the CML Mammoth model, what is included in it (exactly), how it works, and when it's triggered, using Trade Machine you can learn about scientific technical trading from the link (which leads to a short video).



    WHAT HAPPENED
    In a few mouse clicks and about 30 seconds, we identified a pattern that has repeatedly turned a profit over and over again. with a higher win rate than loss rate, and a higher average win % per trade than losing % return per trade.
    Tap Here, See for Yourself

    Risk Disclosure
    You should read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

    Past performance is not an indication of future results.

    Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation. Only risk capital should be used when trading futures or options. Investors could lose more than their initial investment.

    Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.

    Please note that the executions and other statistics in this article are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity and slippage.

     
    vanzandt likes this.
  2. destriero

    destriero

    54.70 entry. What expiration? Sep? Guess?

    Sep 55C from 3.20.
     
  3. destriero

    destriero

    The Sep 55C is 1.80 now. Do you intend to update any of your threads? 0/3. 0.20 from 50% stop loss.
     
  4. destriero

    destriero

    Stopped for a 50% loss. 1.20 last. Shares 51.85.
     
    sellindexvol66 likes this.
  5. Well I entered this trade as a ratio trade with additionally a sold call at 65 later exchanged for a call at 60. I am in the plus as the stock is trading below 50.50$ but I am afraid CML's Mammoth Bull Run really was bull and the chart indeed doesnt mean anything.
     
  6. CML_Ophir

    CML_Ophir Sponsor

    I did great with it, sry you did not. Took 20%+ in a day and posted it live to Twitter.

    Here is the trade:



    Also, even though it did work, I wouldn't say, ha, proof it works. Same for if it did not.

    We have the study behind it and look at the article, 62% win rate means a 38% loss rate.
     
    vanzandt likes this.
  7. destriero

    destriero

    You told ET to hold to expiration. Any strike would have been stopped at your 50% loss figure.
     
  8. srinir

    srinir

    So, You don't follow your own rules. Here are the rules as per your own post

    So one needs to follow your twitter, facebook, instagram, stocktwit feed along with that subscription?
     
  9. CML_Ophir

    CML_Ophir Sponsor

    No, you made a commented. I commented back. You don't like what you saw, that's fine. I shared my experience, as all professional traders do when called for, that's it.
     
    vanzandt likes this.
  10. destriero

    destriero


    You posted a SL at 50% of entry. The trade triggered a stop loss. You're doing shady revisionist sh*t here.
     
    #10     Sep 11, 2018