After discussing the topic on another thread, I decided I should start a journal.
The trading used in this journal (experiment) is done to try and determine how much better your odds are of making a profitable trade when you trade "with the trend". I would like to quantify these odds as best as possible.
I will use a real money account, and use about 20K in buying power to start. My stops will be set at 3% and my profit taking will also be at 3%. Thus, I can see how much the trend improves my chances.
In theory, picking random stocks infinite number of times will yield 50-50 results as far as winners and losers. My current estimate is that trading with strong trends will yield between 60-65% winners. I will not discuss how I define a strong trend for a couple reasons. First being that this journal is not being used to critic my trading style, only to document it and discuss the importance/profitablity of trading with the trend. Second, a strong trend can be defined in many ways. You can look at the trades I make and hopefully agree that (in some form or another) a relatively strong trend exists.
I will not have a time frame, the trades will remain open until either +3% or -3% is hit. I will trade with $5,000 blocks. If my expectations are correct, I should gross anywhere from $1,500 to $3,500 after 100 trades. It is harder to determine how long it will take to reach 100 trades. It could be anywhere from 4 months to a year.
I will make an attempt to update daily, even if there is no activity.
Just wanted to clarify what you are saying. $5,000 blocks each trade and 100 trades would mean about how much in starting capital? IN other words it is just $5,000 in one position at a time or you are going to use, for example, $20,000.
I am interested because of the $1,500 to $3,000 gross and on what amount or buying power in order to folllow along.