Home > Markets > Forex Trading > TRADING IS SIMPLE ... (TheRumpledOne)

TRADING IS SIMPLE ... (TheRumpledOne)

  1. HAPPY NEW YEAR!!


    TRADING IS SIMPLE


    ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT TRADING

    * Price either goes up or down.
    * No one knows what will happen next.
    * Keep losses small and let winners run.
    * POSITION SIZE = RISK / STOP LOSS.
    * The reason you entered has no bearing on the outcome of your trade.
    * You can control the size of your loss (skill) but you can't control the size of your win (luck).
    * You need to know when to pick up your chips and cash them in.

    Expectancy = (Probability of Win * Average Win) - (Probability of Loss * Average Loss)

    You cannot control the probabilities of wining or losing.

    You cannot control your average win size.

    The only part of the equation of the equation that you can control is your average loss size.

    PRICE ACTION

    “Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

    1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

    2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

    They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

    They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist.” - H. Rearden

    1) Price will either breakout of the high, low or both of the previous bar

    2) Price will not breakout of the previous bar.

    You cannot reduce it any further. Anything else complicates the issue.

    ENTERING A TRADE

    You either decide to:

    1) Wait and do not enter a trade

    2) Trade a breakout

    3) Trade a reversal.

    Those are your ONLY 3 options.

    That is all you need to know about trading.

    TRADING IS SIMPLE!
     
  2. [​IMG]


    "Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

    The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

    P64 HOW WE DECIDE (italics added)

    =============================================

    "Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

    1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

    2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

    They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

    They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist." - H. Rearden

    =============================================

    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

    ============================================

    WHY ISN'T EVERYBODY DOING IT?

    Most of you know I catch a lot of flak on my forums because SOME PEOPLE don't like the way I post.

    One worn out argument that is used repeatedly is, "If this is so (simple, great, profitable, ), then why isn't everybody doing it?"

    Simple answer is because SOYLENT GREEN is people!

    We all know exercise is great, but how many actually exercise?

    We all know smoking is bad, but how many do it anyway?

    We all know which foods are bad for our health, but how many eat those foods?

    We all know that we should save for our future and spend less than we earn but who does that?

    The list is almost endless.

    As long as there are people, there will always be some STUPID people and some smart people making STUPID decisions, where STUPID is defined as knowing better but acting otherwise.

    Meanwhile, the RATS are still beating the Yale students.

    =============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  3. Very good post. FWIW I totally agree, but it took me a long time to reach this point.

    The only minor difference with my written methodology is that I call the 2 choices Continuation and Reversal.

    Have a great year!!
     
  4. <iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/_VpvgQBeShY" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

    The video version.
     
  5. [​IMG]

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     

  6. Man, you lookin kind of paramilitary there. Need an AK on the wall and a 45 on your hip for emphasis.

    Just kidding, keep it up. Good clear trading guidelines need to be re-stated often on ET, to counter the BS that pops up. :)


    BTW, do you trade for a living, hobby, etc.
     
  7. Why can't we complicate this with price action (trading noise ) on lower time frames ?Why not tell them the simple truth about following simple trend lines?
     
  8. Responses to questions/comments...


    Paramilitary? I'll be posting survival/prepping videos, too - but not here. Trading is an income stream to me.


    Trendlines - THERE IS NO TREND. TREND EXIST ONLY IN THE MIND OF THE TRADER! I'll post a video of this in the near future.
     
  9. All You Need To Trade Is A Horizontal Line

    <iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/IFJFuJ6-tQY" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
     

  10. THERE IS NO TREND!

    <iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/rnPMI4lOq8E" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
     
  11. TRO,

    Some questions for you to make sure I understand your technique.

    Assuming EUR/USD

    When price is 20 pips from previous HOD you buy.

    When price is 20 pips from previous LOD you short.

    Sounds simple enough.

    Now onto the questions.

    What stop to use ?

    Where do you exit ? I don't think take what you can is an apt answer.

    Only once per day ?

    Can you do the long and the short version during the same day ?

    Trying to understand, thank you.

    Crazy A
     
  12. since prices are consolidating 75% of the time would it make sense to short once the price is 15 or 20 pips above the previous day's high or the opposite for previous day's low and set a stop for half of what I'm try to make. I've back tested it and my stops must not be optimal.
     
  13. and how does that "make sense"?
     

  14. You are making an assumption that "consolidating 75% of the time" implies an XX% chance that when price exceeds the daily range by YY points then it will return. Maybe one statement doesn't imply the other in which case stops won't be the issue.
     
  15. Rump,

    Your thoughts are very logical and sensible, and you seem to enjoy sharing. It would be nice to see charts of how you implement these ideas in your own trading. This could be a great learning thread.
     
  16. Very good. I like simple explanations.

    Now, is there anywhere that I can buy a house trained rat to help with my trading?
     
  17. Do you want a simple rat , or do you want one that can dance on your lap , while you sit on your ass ?
     
  18. It is NOT PREVIOUS LOD, it is CURRENT low of the day.




    1) price within 20 pips of the daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

    2) red candle closes

    3) green candle closes - note the high price of the green candle.

    4) enter long at the green candle's high price

    5) STOP LOSS IS 10 PIPS

    6) Take whatever profit you can.

    7) If the rules do not mention it, then it is of no concern.


    For exits, search for TRO EXIT PLAYBOOK.


    "The technique is so simple that just several lessons (or a few pages of explanations) cover it all. Now what? Now the student has to practice, practice and practice again to understand what he had been taught. The teacher DOES know much more than the student, but his understanding can't be "passed", "transferred" or taught in any way -- not even by reading books."
     
  19. Take a look at the NO BRAND - LIKE A RAT thread. You should find what you are looking for there. The thread got renamed because I was accused of "branding".
     
  20. can't find " NO BRAND LIKE A RAT " thread.
    Could you please post a link?
     
  21. TRO...

    You really take the cake...

    I READ EVERY POST IN THE CURRENCY SECTION AND SOME OTHER SECTIONS THAT I MODERATE.

    Happy New Year and good trading to you.

    ES

    P.S. Your not going to open up numerous threads here are you? Can you try to contain your sharing to one thread? Don't you think I have enough to do? Mine is a thankless job without donations.

     
  22. .................................................


    i want one that can kick ass, while i sit on it.



    s

    :cool:
     
  23. haha. and all this time i thought you were a middle-aged, white guy. I thought maybe Russian :D

    Yes, buying higher highs and selling lower lows, can work. CAN, if you've got nerves of steel, patience and wide stops. Depends on market conditions. Some days it's pure cash. Some days, plenty of stop outs and losses. Beware of the chop, dear rumpledone. But i enjoy you're threads. You've been at this awhile.
     
  24. Well as he said you wont always win, when you dont you take 10 pip loss per loser.
     
  25. Anyone keep any metrics on this so called grail ? This guy has got to be properly vetted before a proper hazing of the rat
     
  26. By gosh you are right? I had to watch the tapes twice, but now I see.....he is not a middle aged anglo! OMG! :p

    Rump, Congrats on starting video presentations. It would be great if you were able to bump it up to a power point or screen capture format. You know, kind of walking through the forming bars with discussion on the why's and why nots of trades you make live.

    I see the next YouTube sensation about to be born!!!
     
  27. LOL TRO I like your style. You talk like you are teaching the ABC's to kindergartners. Probably needed here at ET though :)
     
  28. utter crap!
     
  29. <iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/3eGo6zmPezw" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

    EXIT PLAY BOOK.
     
  30. “I am not forcing you to accept my concepts. I only request the traders to review the market from time to time keeping in mind my concepts and if found suitable use in the trades or just ignore. Thanks for your opinion.”
     
  31. I'll stick with this thread for a while.
     
  32. Common question: How do you exit from your trade?

    TRO: "10 pip stop." Profit is "get what you can get"

    Here's a better answer (Word document):

    http://tinyurl.com/83fpy9r

    [note: please ignore the CCI mumbo jumbo and insert your own entry method into this process]
     
  33. SteveH,

    To be fair... he did post an exit routine in the other thread.

    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3340036#post3340036

    FOREX EXIT PLAY BOOK

    PLAN "A"
    +PIPS
    20 WAIT
    19 WAIT
    18 WAIT
    17 WAIT
    16 SET STOP: ENTRY + 10
    15 WAIT
    14 WAIT
    13 WAIT
    12 WAIT
    11 WAIT
    10 SET STOP: ENTRY + 5
    9 WAIT
    8 WAIT
    7 WAIT
    6 WAIT
    5 SET STOP: ENTRY + 3
    4 WAIT
    3 WAIT
    2 WAIT
    1 WAIT
    0 ENTRY: STOP LOSS ENTRY - 10


    USE STOP MARKET



     
  34. [​IMG]

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    1) Price within 20 pips of the daily low (ClLo < 20) - that is OPPORTUNITY

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    Trading is GUESSING. If it wasn't, you wouldn't need a STOP LOSS.

    THINK ABOUT IT!!


    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    MAXIMUM RISK = 2% * ACCOUNT BALANCE.

    STOP LOSS = 10 PIPS. (INCLUDING SPREAD)

    POSITION SIZE = RISK / STOP LOSS.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    1) To trade like a RAT is to ALWAYS trade in ONE DIRECTION - either LONG or SHORT. Once you pick a "team", you can't switch.

    2) The "within 20 pips of the daily high/low" is the BEST possible entry to get the maximum run BUT the RAT REVERSAL entry works ANYWHERE on the chart.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.



    ES, I also made a video explaining the EXIT PLAY BOOK. Thanks.
     
  35. [​IMG]

    "Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

    The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

    P64 HOW WE DECIDE (italics added)

    =============================================

    "Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

    1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

    2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

    They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

    They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist." - H. Rearden

    =============================================

    1) Price within 20 pips of the daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

    ============================================

    WHY ISN'T EVERYBODY DOING IT?

    Most of you know I catch a lot of flak on my forums because SOME PEOPLE don't like the way I post.

    One worn out argument that is used repeatedly is, "If this is so (simple, great, profitable, ), then why isn't everybody doing it?"

    Simple answer is because SOYLENT GREEN is people!

    We all know exercise is great, but how many actually exercise?

    We all know smoking is bad, but how many do it anyway?

    We all know which foods are bad for our health, but how many eat those foods?

    We all know that we should save for our future and spend less than we earn but who does that?

    The list is almost endless.

    As long as there are people, there will always be some STUPID people and some smart people making STUPID decisions, where STUPID is defined as knowing better but acting otherwise.

    Meanwhile, the RATS are still beating the Yale students.

    =============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  36. [​IMG]

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20) - that is OPPORTUNITY

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    Trading is GUESSING. If it wasn't, you wouldn't need a STOP LOSS.

    THINK ABOUT IT!!


    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    MAXIMUM RISK = 2% * ACCOUNT BALANCE.

    STOP LOSS = 10 PIPS. (INCLUDING SPREAD)

    POSITION SIZE = RISK / STOP LOSS.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    1) To trade like a RAT is to ALWAYS trade in ONE DIRECTION - either LONG or SHORT. Once you pick a "team", you can't switch.

    2) The "within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily high/low" is the BEST possible entry to get the maximum run BUT the RAT REVERSAL entry works ANYWHERE on the chart.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  37. Looking forward to seeing some actual trade performance.
     
  38. The rat experiment is flawed. The outcome was not random, it was preset to be 60%. However, the students did not know of the rig and the rats just learned where food was most of the time. It was a static markets.

    Now put the rats in a dynamic market where the long term outcome will be 50/50 but with some short term trending and ranging, and there may well be an algorithm to take advantage of such action that will beat 50%.
     
  39. “I am not forcing you to accept my concepts. I only request the traders to review the market from time to time keeping in mind my concepts and if found suitable use in the trades or just ignore. Thanks for your opinion.”
     
  40. [​IMG]

    The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  41. Do you see how the same OPPORTUNITY occurs over and over again?





    [​IMG]

    The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.


    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  42. [​IMG]

    1) price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

    2) red candle closes

    3) green candle closes - note the high price of the green candle.

    4) enter long at the green candle's high price

    5) STOP LOSS IS 10 PIPS

    6) Take whatever profit you can.

    7) If the rules do not mention it, then it is of no concern.


    "The technique is so simple that just several lessons (or a few pages of explanations) cover it all. Now what? Now the student has to practice, practice and practice again to understand what he had been taught. The teacher DOES know much more than the student, but his understanding can't be "passed", "transferred" or taught in any way -- not even by reading books."

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  43. Brilliant! Thanks. Most traders think that they need to be right. There are a few of us tht realize is about controlling the times that we are wrong.

    Folks--Prudent Money Management IS the edge.
     
  44. I hate to me Mr. Judgmental Condescending Ego Expert... here are my thoughts:

    1.) The analogy between rats and Yale students is a great story. Analogies are laughable means to prove something to be true. Try publishing it in a scientific paper - you'll be recommended to get a refund from your alma mater.
    2.) bmwh is correct - the rats were preset at 60%. That is not true of the market. Although TRO may be pointing out the difference between analysis and trading noise - either way, this is absolutely not an explanation for the system!
    3.) The crowd of "there is no intraday trend" is not correct, as much as they'd like to be. It's like saying Lehman shouldn't of been bailed out. News trading on technical off of daily charts is excellent and a different ball game, but the fact that plenty are making lots of money off of intraday empties almost every bit of creditably one has in claiming they're not a "noise trader."
    4.) Drain the banks, IMO, is about money management, and proves that one can make plenty of money by combining basic sentiment (desk chatter) with maybe basic analysis (ex Stochastics) with GUESSING, just by keeping losses tight and letting winners run more than your losses. It's not difficult - if you have not experienced this yourself, spend a few minutes and trade something using this method, and watch how your PnL is positive.
    5.) One of TRO's videos says he has experienced "1,000 indicators" in his "10 years of trading". If this were a Goldman interview (or any big interview for that matter), you'd almost certainly kibosh your goal of a job offer. This shows a terrible understanding of data, not so much from a math point of view but a judgement and ego/mantra point of view. People who have bad judgement and believe they're experts haven't realized that they're wrong almost all of the time ("when one realizes that they are always, always wrong, they then become correct - and can move forward"). 1,000 indicators in 10 years would be about 100 indicators a year, or 1 indicator every 3-4 days on average. I doubt TRO kept up that record. Maybe it was a memory fluke on camera... I don't know for certain!
    5.1) Making fun of "squligely line guys" also reflects the same points I made above. I think TRO should express this as how nice horizontal lines are and the benefits of them.

    Thank you, TRO, for the youtube channel and DTB system - very good reading, and nice to get a refresh on what some ego freak shows on this board seem to of never learned! :cool:.
     
  45. I thought you could not be profitable just on good money management.

    Not sure, things ive heard.
     
  46. i like how you think and how you talk.
    keep it simple
     
  47. If you posted videos of yourself successfully trading, you would be the first person in the history trading to actually do that.
     
  48. you cant be profitable without it,that's where you can't keep a profit
     
  49. [​IMG]


    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

    ============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  50. I said I have probably coded over a thousand indicators in the past 10 years. That is NOT a memory fluke. I probably coded close the that number of TradeStation indicators alone. Not to mention eSignal, QuoteTracker and MT4.

    Hey, if you can't joke about something, you might as well be dead... LIFE IS SHORT... HAVE SOME FUN!!

    I am happy to hear you enjoyed the videos. You're welcome!! Thanks for watching.
     
  51. [​IMG]

    This post is for those who think that the RAT experiment is flawed. If you have not read my other threads you have not seen this before.

    The above chart is a frequency distribution of the wick sizes for the GBPUSD daily candles over the last 10 days.

    Your first criticism will be, "IT'S ONLY 10 DAYS. THAT DOESN'T MEAN BEANS." Well, the numbers hold up for 1000 days but you don't have to take my word for it.

    Moving on....

    You can see the bottom wick is 20 pips or more 60% of the time. Statistics are HISTORICAL. Do not confuse this with PROBABILITY! This is why the OPPORTUNITY lies within 20 pips of the CURRENT DAILY HIGH or CURRENT DAILY LOW.

    The gray dots on each candle are 20 pips for the high and low of the day. The lower histogram shows the actual wick sizes for each day.

    Of course, during the day you don't know if the CURRENT HIGH or CURRENT LOW will be the ACTUAL high or low until the day is over. THIS IS TRADING, YOU TAKE A RISK!

    Trading is GUESSING. If it wasn't, you wouldn't need a STOP LOSS. THINK ABOUT IT!!

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.


    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  52. There is no benefit in that. The trade would be over. And it would be a very boring video. Not to mention, it could be long. Furthermore, I would be accused of "cherry picking" trades. I have been down that road and I know where it goes. That's why I have a free chat room. That's where trades can be discussed in real time.

    I post charts of OPPORTUNITY almost every day so traders who follow my threads can see what I see. Though on Elitetrader, I am RESTRICTED to what I can post else I get banned for "branding". Many forums are threatened by my presense. They think I'll have a negative effect on their cash flow.
     
  53. How about posting how the opportunities that you take work out. We could all post "opportunities" that the market offers from any number of setups or systems. The actual results of the trader is all that matters.

    Just an end of day chart with trades would certainly draw more supporters.
     
  54. [​IMG]


    The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  55. Supporters? I am not running for office...LOL!!

    I am only posting opportunities for RAT REVERSALS for the pairs that I trade. It should be obvious to the reader whether or not the trades "work out".

    “I am not forcing you to accept my concepts. I only request the traders to review the market from time to time keeping in mind my concepts and if found suitable use in the trades or just ignore. Thanks for your opinion.”
     
  56. There are many ways to trade TRO's methods including adjustments in each segment of the trade : Entry / Exit / Profit Target / Stop-Loss. Mathematical methods that simply work over TIME.

    As for supporters, his methods are too simple for most people, but one should understand this FACT:


    "The successful trader may indeed trade patterns that appear to be simple. Behind these seemingly simple ideas, however, is a high degree of conceptual integration."
    Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.
     
  57. Reminds me of a book - written by the late Brian Klemmer "If How-to's Were Enough, We Would All Be Skinny, Rich and Happy"

    Its not the knowing - it is the intention of the result. Do you intend to be successful or....

    This could be interesting.
     
  58. [​IMG]


    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

    ============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  59. I will have to check that book out.

    Thanks for posting.
     
  60. This is where ET goes wrong.

    Allowing wacko's to promote themselves. None of what this guy has been spouting for YEARS is worth anything wthout some sort of organization of the data, he should be accountable.

    I would ban him if I ran things around here, posting after posting

    The rat theory is out the window, just go back a few posts, he CAN NOT and WILL NOT answer statistical questions, profits, metrics, pitiful
     
  61. “I am not forcing you to accept my concepts. I only request the traders to review the market from time to time keeping in mind my concepts and if found suitable use in the trades or just ignore. Thanks for your opinion.”
     
  62. MBC, it's common sense. He has to have separate income sources because he can't make enough in trading. He caters to the desperates (underfunded, young, wannabe trader 20 somethings) hanging out in the Forex market. He had 80+ hanging out in a free Paltalk room 2 years ago and, as they lost their milk money, their numbers imploded.

    It's probably a sad story. An older programmer loses his job then has age bias preventing any re-hire, gets into trading, can't make it, so uses the programming ability to create "donation-ware" and get into the broker introduction biz, leading lambs to the...well, you know. The videos this year are only confirming things. New angle is to get a youtube following to get advert cash.

    Do I think his pitch is legit? C'mon... "Your stop loss is skill"... "Get what you can get". This is Occam's Razor 101 stuff.

    Somebody out there...please...give this guy a 40K entry level full-time programming job, screen-scraping web pages or something...dozens of Forex forum moderators will forever be in your debt.
     
  63. “I am not forcing you to accept my concepts. I only request the traders to review the market from time to time keeping in mind my concepts and if found suitable use in the trades or just ignore. Thanks for your opinion.”
     
  64. Even though video and concepts are brilliant, there are a couple of errors-- one is that price can and does move sideways. The second is that trading is educated guessing, not just plain guessing.
     
  65. why not just buy the diverged db at the the zerolag histo cross and exit at the fib 4.2 full pull.

    looks like a high % win trade to me....:)

    160 ticks

    playing thru.

    cheers,

    s
     
  66. Very good post. That would explain the lack of any suggestion of success. Just throwing out bait. Well, everyone has to pay their bills one way or another. !

    I assume TRO is very wealthy and is only offering his concepts as a token of good will to the trading neophytes, and not for any type of backdoor income. If he wanted income, he would just start showing the great results of his concepts, you know, the usual stuff. Actual trade charts, end of day trades from platform, etc. Since he chooses not do to this I therefore assume he is just a very generous person. We need more of his caliber on ET.
     
  67. NO, price does NOT move sideways. For price to move, it has to change. The only two possible changes are increase (up) or decrease (down). If price does not change, then it does not move.

    YES, trading sometimes is "educated" guessing but it is still guessing. No one knows with 100% certainty what will happen next.

    Thanks for posting.
     
  68. TRO,
    I know you like to "milk the cows" at opening on the stock exchange but what is your favorite time frame to trade the FOREX?
     
  69. Gotta love these first time posters...would that be TRO?
     
  70. No, I'm not The Rumpled One. Just a noob trying to get educated and I'll ask you the same question. What are your favorite trading times? Do you trade exclusively when the volume is high (crossover of London and New York) or do you see opportunities at other times?
     
  71. [​IMG]

    "Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

    The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

    P64 HOW WE DECIDE (italics added)

    =============================================

    "Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

    1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

    2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

    They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

    They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist." - H. Rearden

    =============================================

    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

    ============================================

    WHY ISN'T EVERYBODY DOING IT?

    Most of you know I catch a lot of flak on my forums because SOME PEOPLE don't like the way I post.

    One worn out argument that is used repeatedly is, "If this is so (simple, great, profitable, ), then why isn't everybody doing it?"

    Simple answer is because SOYLENT GREEN is people!

    We all know exercise is great, but how many actually exercise?

    We all know smoking is bad, but how many do it anyway?

    We all know which foods are bad for our health, but how many eat those foods?

    We all know that we should save for our future and spend less than we earn but who does that?

    The list is almost endless.

    As long as there are people, there will always be some STUPID people and some smart people making STUPID decisions, where STUPID is defined as knowing better but acting otherwise.

    Meanwhile, the RATS are still beating the Yale students.

    =============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  72. I usually wake up around 7 - 8 AM EST. That is when I look at my gauge to see what pairs are within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low. I usually start trading during the London/NY over lap.

    My favorite time to trade is when price is within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low.

    I usually don't trade the Asian session.
     
  73. I have been posting on trading forums for about 10 years now. How about yourself?

    Your posts are not ON TOPIC. Would you PLEASE stick to the subject?! Thank you for your cooperation.
     
  74. 33 - 20 = 13


    [​IMG]


    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20) - that is OPPORTUNITY

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    Trading is GUESSING. If it wasn't, you wouldn't need a STOP LOSS.

    THINK ABOUT IT!!


    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    MAXIMUM RISK = 2% * ACCOUNT BALANCE.

    STOP LOSS = 10 PIPS. (INCLUDING SPREAD)

    POSITION SIZE = RISK / STOP LOSS.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    1) To trade like a RAT is to ALWAYS trade in ONE DIRECTION - either LONG or SHORT. Once you pick a "team", you can't switch.

    2) The "within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily high/low" is the BEST possible entry to get the maximum run BUT the RAT REVERSAL entry works ANYWHERE on the chart.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  75. [​IMG]

    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

    ============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  76. [​IMG]

    The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  77. [​IMG]

    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

    ============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the
    forum. Thank you.
     
  78. [​IMG]

    Let's clear things up:

    1) To trade like a RAT is to ALWAYS trade in ONE DIRECTION - either LONG or SHORT. Once you pick a "team", you can't switch.

    2) The "within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily high/low" is the BEST possible entry to get the maximum run BUT the RAT REVERSAL entry works ANYWHERE on the chart.

    3) The TRAINING WHEELS only signals LONG trades ABOVE the weekly open and SHORT trades BELOW the weekly above. This bias keeps beginning traders, as well as experienced traders, out of trouble.


    Trading is GUESSING. If it wasn't, you wouldn't need a STOP LOSS. THINK ABOUT IT!!


    The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.


    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  79. What platform do you trade with?
     
  80. look at the lower left of his chart that he posts here...maybe thats it....


     
  81. [​IMG]

    The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  82. Stop this now, you are gonna make everyone a winner.

    You should start selling this to others,



    but no one will buy it



    because it's the right way to win



    stop stop stop



    stop STOP!
    stop stop stop



    stop STOP!
    stop stop stop



    stop STOP!
    stop stop stop



    stop STOP!
    stop stop stop



    stop STOP!
    stop stop stop



    stop STOP!
    stop stop stop



    stop STOP!
    stop stop stop



    stop STOP!
    stop stop stop



    stop STOP!
    stop stop stop



    stop STOP!
    stop stop stop



    stop STOP!
    stop stop stop



    stop STOP!
    stop stop stop



    stop STOP!
    stop stop stop



    stop STOP!
    stop stop stop



    stop STOP!
    stop stop stop



    stop STOP!
     


  83. SO TRUE!

    Instead, sell them a bunch of indicators that will make them try to guess what's going to happen instead.

    I recently was told of someone that sold 'indicators' for TS - yet he didn't trade them. Now, if the indicators were so good and TS is capable of automation, why in the world wouldn't the inventor / developer use them as well in automation?

    He claims that he doesn't have time? Excuse me, but isn't that the purpose of automation in the first place?
     
  84. Let me also add that TS actually sponsors this guy and his work.

    I have a friend / fellow trader that bought much of his stuff and when I told him this guy was speaking at a local event, he said ... He's made enough money off of me and I haven't made a dime with his indicators after spending thousands of dollars on them. He also said, he's never shown me how to use them either...imagine that.

    Now, TS nor this developer of tools / indicators for the day trader can prove that the tools actually can make the trader more profitable or a better trader. Not to mention that they must not be capable of automation...otherwise, wouldn't this developer create automated systems using his own tools?

    The funny thing is...a system like what TRO is describing has a much better chance than the tools / indicators that my fellow friend / trader spent thousands of dollars purchasing...yet because the system seemed simple, the indicators looked more promising, BUT HOW?

    If there is no proof by either TS or the developer that it can help create better trading decisions, it's worth absolutely nothing. The fact that he doesn't use the tools in an automated environment which he created them in...that's another red flag.
     
  85. [​IMG]

    "Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

    The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

    P64 HOW WE DECIDE (italics added)

    =============================================

    "Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

    1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

    2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

    They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

    They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist." - H. Rearden

    =============================================

    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

    ============================================

    WHY ISN'T EVERYBODY DOING IT?

    Most of you know I catch a lot of flak on my forums because SOME PEOPLE don't like the way I post.

    One worn out argument that is used repeatedly is, "If this is so (simple, great, profitable, ), then why isn't everybody doing it?"

    Simple answer is because SOYLENT GREEN is people!

    We all know exercise is great, but how many actually exercise?

    We all know smoking is bad, but how many do it anyway?

    We all know which foods are bad for our health, but how many eat those foods?

    We all know that we should save for our future and spend less than we earn but who does that?

    The list is almost endless.

    As long as there are people, there will always be some STUPID people and some smart people making STUPID decisions, where STUPID is defined as knowing better but acting otherwise.

    Meanwhile, the RATS are still beating the Yale students.

    =============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  86. [​IMG]

    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

    ============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  87. [​IMG]

    The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  88. Great posts! I agree trading is simple. The hard part is mastering yourself and controlling your thoughts and emotions, this is what makes trading, and anything for that matter, simple!
     
  89. [​IMG]

    1) price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

    2) red candle closes

    3) green candle closes - note the high price of the green candle.

    4) enter long at the green candle's high price

    5) STOP LOSS IS 10 PIPS

    6) Take whatever profit you can.

    7) If the rules do not mention it, then it is of no concern.


    "The technique is so simple that just several lessons (or a few pages of explanations) cover it all. Now what? Now the student has to practice, practice and practice again to understand what he had been taught. The teacher DOES know much more than the student, but his understanding can't be "passed", "transferred" or taught in any way -- not even by reading books."


    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  90. Yes, mastering oneself is extremely important in trading and in life.
     



  91. Alert Alert! Fraud!


    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_fraud



    The foreign exchange market is a zero sum game[8] in which there are many experienced well-capitalized professional traders (e.g. working for banks) who can devote their attention full time to trading. An inexperienced retail trader will have a significant information disadvantage compared to these traders.

    Retail traders are - almost by definition - undercapitalized. Thus they are subject to the problem of gambler's ruin. In a "Fair Game" (one with no information advantages) between two players that continues until one trader goes bankrupt, the player with the lower amount of capital has a higher probability of going bankrupt first. Since the retail speculator is effectively playing against the market as a whole - which has nearly infinite capital - he will almost certainly go bankrupt. The retail trader always pays the bid/ask spread which makes his odds of winning less than those of a fair game. Additional costs may include margin interest, or if a spot position is kept open for more than one day the trade may be "resettled" each day, each time costing the full bid/ask spread.





    More than 90% of small traders lose! They just lose!
     
  92. [​IMG]

    Let's clear things up:

    1) To trade like a RAT is to ALWAYS trade in ONE DIRECTION - either LONG or SHORT. Once you pick a "team", you can't switch.

    2) The "within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily high/low" is the BEST possible entry to get the maximum run BUT the RAT REVERSAL entry works ANYWHERE on the chart.

    3) The TRAINING WHEELS only signals LONG trades ABOVE the weekly open and SHORT trades BELOW the weekly above. This bias keeps beginning traders, as well as experienced traders, out of trouble.


    Trading is GUESSING. If it wasn't, you wouldn't need a STOP LOSS. THINK ABOUT IT!!


    The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.


    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  93. [​IMG]

    Sometimes you have to WAIT for OPPORTUNITY


    ============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the
    forum. Thank you.
     
  94. Thank you for sharing.
     
  95. [​IMG]

    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

    ============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the
    forum. Thank you.
     
  96. [​IMG]


    Don't you just love NFP Day!!
     
  97. I like the KISS approach.

    But I can assure you money management is not an edge. Money management just keeps you in the game longer.

    The premise of this approach seems to be" price is either going to go up or down, so if I have a 10 pip stop and a >10 pip target overall I will make money", sorry that doesnt work.

    If you had a 10pip stop and a 10pip target you would on average have a 50% win/loss ratio and would be flat ticks after 100 trades, however you will be down from costs and slippage.

    If you had a 10pip stop and your average win was 30pips you would on average win 33% of the time and be break-even on ticks (after a large enough sample, say 100 trades) but you will be down costs and slippage.

    You HAVE to have an edge to push you past the random entry and costs involved in trading. To use the average win = 3x greater than your stop loss example, you would need to have an edge that pushes your win rate up from the 33% you would achieve through coin flipping. You would need to make a statistical "prediction" that is correct 6-7% more times than random.

    This is achievable, with respect Rumpled One, your approach does introduce some sound concepts in terms of money management, but your focus should be more on explaining WHY trading a breakout of a previous bars high or low has a statistical significance.
     
  98. Actually, sound money management is an edge.
     
  99. "The premise of this approach seems to be" price is either going to go up or down, so if I have a 10 pip stop and a >10 pip target overall I will make money", sorry that doesnt work."


    Why do you think there are no real P/L statements in this thread.
    :D
     
  100. It is not a viable system that is why he is trying to make money off the videos and then donations for the "code".

    He does this all over the internet in various forums.

    BTW, don't ask a question on the forum as he states....he will never answer it.

    Someone give this man a job!
     


  101. He says not to PM him with questions and to ask them on the forum.
    However if you ask an intelligent question, you will not get an intelligent answer, just avoidance of anything that might show the emperor has no clothes.
     
  102. TRO,

    Taking into consideration your programming skills and the simplicity of your rules. Howcome there are no automated results or backtesting statistics supporting the positive expectancy of your technique ?

    FoN
     
  103. Surely he is not asking money for one line of code:D

    I think more likely is that he simply trying to share.
     
  104. I beg to differ.

    Some of the indicators in his website are donation only, aka pay only.

    And then there's this http://themaddashforcash.com/tro/

    Not judging, just informing.

    Crazy A
     
  105. Oh, well, there you go. This discussion ended quickly:D
     
  106. TheRumpledOne

    * The reason you entered has no bearing on the outcome of your trade.

    When the chart pattern/whatever you use for entry (in a selected time segment) trends 50% of the time or better long/short , you have a winning strategy - when using stops and letting winners run.

    * You can control the size of your loss (skill) but you can't control the size of your win (luck).

    When you know what range to expect after entry, you can know where to get out.
     
  107. How is money management an edge? An edge increases your expectency. If money management was an edge we would all be millionaires by flipping a coin and setting a 10 pip stop and a 20 pip target.
     
  108. sigh...

    Tro I am really reaching here....

    Can't you become a sponsor please...


    Elite Trader
    7557 West Sand Lake Rd.
    Suite 193
    Orlando, FL 32819

    (407) 230-9956 (Phone)
    (407) 641-9585 (Fax)

    Office Hours
    Mon-Thur 8AM-8PM ET
    support@elitetrader.com
    [​IMG]
     
  109. Let's see how the free shit ends.

    [​IMG]

    Crazy A
     
  110. Wouldn't that end his free marketing ?

    Crazy A
     
  111. An edge is the one, two or three things that tells you each time that the market is likely to rally/trend, or sell off now.
    Money management is to not let it go the other way any longer than you choose.
     
  112. My money management is more than a stop and target. My money management is directly involved with how I manage a trade I'm already in. It sounds like you have hard stops and hard targets, and you get your entire edge from your setup. I get part of what I guess you could call my edge from my setup too, but part of it comes from managing the trade. Maybe we trade differently.

    There is an old thread here where a guy entered a trade by flipping a coin, and had his money management as his edge. If I can find it, I'll post it here.

    By the by, this is much more germaine to professional gambling, where things are much more random than they are in a financial market, which is another belief I hold. Money management seems to be a grail of sorts to those guys.
     
  113. That's correct, I do use hard stops and hard targets, and always the same two or three things that point to a direction.
     
  114. I totally agree. Money management can control your equity curve. Your size of drawdowns. Can even stop you losing your account. I just know from 5 years as a full time trader. Programming systems and understanding probabilities you cannot make a random entry system profitable from money management. There comes a point where you have to say 'I am getting in this trade because of x and I am getting out because of y'

    You are making assumptions that these two places are significant probabilistically. You are predicting the Market to some degree.

    My reason for bringing this up is TRO claims that he gets in because price will either break or reverse a bars high or low. Not a bad place to start building a system. However, over the course of say, 100 bars it will break this level around 50% of the time. . But price will retrace from it 50% of the time (approx, allowing for random variance). TRO needs to make some sort of prediction that the bar breaks he takes have a greater than 50% chance of continuing. Yet his whole premise is 'trading is simple. There is no trend. There is no predicting'. For this system to work there needs to be statistical significance to the entries that are being taken and not just say it will work because the winners are left to run. This defies the laws of maths.
     
  115. I post charts showing what happens. In the morning, a gauge showing opportunity is posted. Later a chart showing what happened is posted.

    Years ago I got into arguments over showing results and whether or not they were real. No matter how detailed the statements, it was never good enough. I don't play those games anymore.
     
  116. What you say is true. However, you can't say if your next trade will be a winner or a loser.

    You do not know what will happen on any given trade.
     
  117. I love how you guys keep trying to derail my threads. You are like politicians who belittle each other instead of speaking of your own virtues.
     
  118. ES...

    You should warn the jackyls to post ON TOPIC. I am not the bad guy here.
     
  119. Nice way of putting it. Thanks for posting.
     
  120. [​IMG]

    The chart shows the frequency distribution of the wick sizes for the last 10 days.

    As you can see over the last 10 days the bottom wick was 20 pips or more 60% of the time. That is the "statistical significance". That's all the edge I need. I don't need to "predict".
     
  121. [​IMG]

    "Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

    The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

    P64 HOW WE DECIDE (italics added)

    =============================================

    "Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

    1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

    2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

    They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

    They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist." - H. Rearden

    =============================================

    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

    ============================================

    WHY ISN'T EVERYBODY DOING IT?

    Most of you know I catch a lot of flak on my forums because SOME PEOPLE don't like the way I post.

    One worn out argument that is used repeatedly is, "If this is so (simple, great, profitable, ), then why isn't everybody doing it?"

    Simple answer is because SOYLENT GREEN is people!

    We all know exercise is great, but how many actually exercise?

    We all know smoking is bad, but how many do it anyway?

    We all know which foods are bad for our health, but how many eat those foods?

    We all know that we should save for our future and spend less than we earn but who does that?

    The list is almost endless.

    As long as there are people, there will always be some STUPID people and some smart people making STUPID decisions, where STUPID is defined as knowing better but acting otherwise.

    Meanwhile, the RATS are still beating the Yale students.

    =============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  122. Yesterday (Monday) stock indices trended down short-term from around 10:08am. It then trended up from 10:45am to close near the high. There was profitable trading both ways.
    Today stock indices were bouncy all the way down to close with a surprise run-up starting at 3:30. Going long and going short today it was just a matter of time before hitting stops when strategy is based on buy-n-hold for a short-term trend. Short-term trend works most days, but not on days like today.
    This is one intraday trading strategy.
     
  123. My apologies Rumpled One. I am just now seeing that this is a forex thread. My posts relate to stock indices. I will now post elsewhere.
     
  124. Not a problem, your post was ON TOPIC.
     
  125. [​IMG]

    "Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

    1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

    2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

    They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

    They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist." - H. Rearden

    =============================================

    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY
    =============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  126. ES,

    is there really someone at that office 12 hours a day?
     
  127. After a choppy Tuesday, stock indices returned to trending.
    After a pull-back to 10:20am, the index trended up to noon time. Indications for a likely change in direction came at 12:29 and the index is off it's high. The market proceded to downtrend to close close to the day low. Profitable trading going long and then going short.
    Another example of intraday short-term trend trading. It's nothing new among trading strategies. Identifying the begining of a trend or identifying trend continuation, and identifying change in direction
    are what was required for this strategy.
     
  128. I read almost every post on ET. As far as the office I would believe it is more than 12 hours each day as I have gotten through before and after hours at times.

    As far as being on topic...I must ask that you remain on topic and PM me with questions such as this in the future. I am available much more than 12 hours per day.

    Thank You for your contribution to the community.

    ES

     
  129. [​IMG]

    Well, this charts shows why the "wicks" have statistical distribution patterns and why "predicting" the next move is not only possible in consistent trading - but a necessary component of long-term success.

    It shows an indicator that contains all "wicks" (properly called: Vectors) and it shows the hidden nature of "trend" changes before they happen.

    This indicator (alone) also explains why trading like a rat won't work over the long-term, absent an ability to see around "corners" - otherwise known as market transitions from Bullish, to Horizontal, to Bearish, to Horizontal and back to Bullish.
     
  130. [​IMG]

    The chart shows the frequency distribution of HIGH MINUS CLOSE and CLOSE MINUS LOW.

    If the candle is RED and you are a GREEN RAT, then close minus low is the bottom wick.

    If the candle is GREEN and you are a GREEN RAT, then close minus low is the candle body PLUS the bottom wick.

    Note how many times CLOSE MINUS LOW is less than 20.

    Do you see the "edge"?

    This is only 10 bars of daily data. But the indicator can be set for hundreds or thousands of bars.

    Perhaps this will help you understand the reason this method is profitable.

    =============================================

    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

    ============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  131. Shill products? My posts are about trading. It is people like you mentioning products.
     
  132. Yes, I created, designed and conceived of it on my own.

    It's a simple histogram with a gauge.
     
  133. Can you expand on your idea?

    How does it show trading like a rat won't work when the frequency distribution shows 60% or better for THE RAT?

    Can you show a frequency distribution for your method?
     
  134. I could - but something tells me that you already know about my idea, no?

    Trading anything will work at least 50% of the time, in a business where there are only two (2) possible directions to discern.

    And, that brings up an interesting thought (at least to my mind). 100% of the charts that you show contain 100% positive results for profit. Yet, only 60% of the distribution is positive for profit. Those numbers don't add up in my mind. I don't know - maybe I'm just an overly attentive fool, but 100-60 = 40. Which means that at least 40% of the charts you post, should show (at minimum) that only break-even was achieved, no?

    Which brings up an even more interesting question for an old mathematician like myself:

    What is the Density Distribution of the 60%?

    What you showed here, was the "frequency" of the distribution. Frequency, is not Density. Frequency is merely a ratio of occurrences within the distribution itself. Density, deals with the cyclical nature of the occurrences themselves - the literal "location" of the clustering of results.

    In other words, does the 40% retain the same density characteristics as the rest of the distribution? If so, then yes you can build a predictive model from such data. If not, then all you can do is make an educated guess.

    People often times hear the statement that you can be a winner 50% of the time, and still make money trading. Well.... that's only half the truth. The other half of that "truth" is what they never remember to tell you and that is: Only if the density of the losers are proportional in characteristic to the density of the winners. Something they still don't teach in Trading 101, these days (for some odd reason).

    Bottom line, if your 40% is not clustered according to the above - you can easily produce a negative equity curve from such a trading method - without ever seeing it turn positive and even with a 60% statistical "chance" of being on the right side of the market.

    A simple EA demonstration would prove my theory. Do you have an EA for this method?


    Sure, but for the reasons stated above - it would mean absolutely nothing with its counter-part, Density Distribution.

    BTW - the Density Distribution of my Indicator is built directly into the Indicator itself. So, you can see the Distribution relative to actual price behavior directly in the pic that I provided.

    In other words, the prove is in the price action that follows, not in the frequency of the numbers output in a window, which are not attached to any quantifiable historical price action.

    Case in point: Notice the slope of Red Histogram -vs- the slope of the Green Histogram, relative to historical price behavior (or, what people incorrectly call the Trend).

    You can clearly see that the extremes of the Red Histogram form what I call a "compression slope" as its recent historical values move closer to zero (0). That's the hidden truth about the pivot that's about to hit the market.

    The steeper the compression slope, the higher the probability for a change of direction in price. No compression slope within my Indicator can retain a zero (0) value for very long - and that is how I am able to accurately predict market behavior, before it happens - regardless of the type of market in play - bull, bear or flat.

    Statistics are only of value, when they are thoroughly understood. ;)
     
  135. [​IMG]

    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

    ============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  136. No, I don't recall anything about Delta or those Used I.D.s from the past.

    I learned Linear Regression and RSI(2) from Lerogee777 and I always give him credit for teaching me those.

    WildSuper taught me how he uses MACD.

    Michal Kreslik and I worked on Buy Zone statistics together.

    Last year someone else asked me a similar question. On another forum, someone asked me to code something they were working on but then they left in a huff...LOL! But my work preceded their appearance. Is this SignalBender, WaveTop, etc...? Wait, just did a google search... StealthTrader, Trader 7... all the same person.

    I derived the idea by looking a charts each day for years. Price moves up or down. Therefore, analysis of that movement follows. Running statistics in the form of frequency distributions on OPEN to HIGH, OPEN to LOW, LOW to CLOSE and HIGH to CLOSE just makes sense. Not rocket science just simple math.
     
  137. No, I don't know about your idea. Please elaborate so all may benefit.

    No, I don't code EAs.

    I understand your point about density distribution.

    "In other words, the prove is in the price action that follows, not in the frequency of the numbers output in a window, which are not attached to any quantifiable historical price action."\

    I am not sure what you mean by that statement. The frequency distribution IS the price action.

    Do you have a thread where you discuss your ideas? We can continue the conversation there.
     
  138. [​IMG]

    The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  139. Unfortunately, my trade logic actually works - so I don't share it with the public at large. In other words, I'm a real trader with valuable trading ideas, as opposed to a programmer/developer hoping to acquire valuable trading ideas.

    "All," can't benefit. If they did, then it would alter the natural tendency of the trade logic itself - which defeats the purpose. The purpose is for some people to make a profit, while the majority does not - and maintaining majority participation in the future. The whole ball of wax hinges on that principle.

    Thus, really good trading ideas, can be quite dangerous in the wrong hands.


    Why not? In particular - why not code an EA based in the strategy you outline here inside this thread. Wouldn't that simply, once and for all, shut-up all the critics?

    You could do it two different ways. You could run the EA and then post the back-tester report in full. Or, you can run the EA live each day and simply post the results like this:

    [​IMG]

    It would be so easy to do, TRO. These are the results from last night, based on one of the EAs that I developed. Rather than post pictures of charts, why not post the real results take from either the back-tester itself, or much more fun, taken from the account history itself in forward-testing, the most important kind of test there is, TRO?

    You really should, TRO. It would be an eye opening experience for you, I think.


    I'm glad you do, TRO. Because, for a minute there, I was thinking: Gee, does this guy really know anything about statistics, or is he just pulling my willy wonker for fun! I'm glad that the former, rather than the latter is true of you, TRO. :D


    It means that the proof of the viability resides in the account statement, at the end of the trading day, not in the statistics posted on screen themselves.

    It really means, that you might want to start posting back-test results, or far more bold, post the forward-test results in the form that I posted mine above. Clearly, you can see from my pic what actually took place, as opposed to a chart that really doesn't say much about how you were involved in the trade.


    For the reasons stated above, no. But, that's only because my trade logic actually works and it is therefore, off limits to anyone else but me at any real level of detail - like how I use it.

    Oh, gee! See what you made me do, TRO. I missed my Friday Close! So, MT4 won't let me close the last position for the day. Well, here it is anyway. You can just add the net total of these two pics together, to get today's gross profit/loss.

    [​IMG]
    Plus (+)
    [​IMG]
    = Results

    It sure would be nice to see your strategy results posted the same way I post my EA results, TRO.

    Bye!
     
  140. Tango and Phenom, from your post count here it seems you are new. Not sure what brought you to my thread. But it appears you are not here to glean any information. May I suggest you start your own threads so you can spread your wisdom there.
     
  141. [​IMG]

    "Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

    The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

    P64 HOW WE DECIDE (italics added)

    =============================================

    "Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

    1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

    2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

    They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

    They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist." - H. Rearden

    =============================================

    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

    ============================================

    WHY ISN'T EVERYBODY DOING IT?

    Most of you know I catch a lot of flak on my forums because SOME PEOPLE don't like the way I post.

    One worn out argument that is used repeatedly is, "If this is so (simple, great, profitable, ), then why isn't everybody doing it?"

    Simple answer is because SOYLENT GREEN is people!

    We all know exercise is great, but how many actually exercise?

    We all know smoking is bad, but how many do it anyway?

    We all know which foods are bad for our health, but how many eat those foods?

    We all know that we should save for our future and spend less than we earn but who does that?

    The list is almost endless.

    As long as there are people, there will always be some STUPID people and some smart people making STUPID decisions, where STUPID is defined as knowing better but acting otherwise.

    Meanwhile, the RATS are still beating the Yale students.

    =============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  142. [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    FIBS uses a fixed percentage, the RAT ZONE uses a fixed amount. You can use a frequency distribution on both.
     
  143. Hello,
    Have you ever used your trading systems on stocks or are they geared just for forex? Thank you.

    Tim
     
  144. [​IMG]

    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20) - that is OPPORTUNITY

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    Trading is GUESSING. If it wasn't, you wouldn't need a STOP LOSS.

    THINK ABOUT IT!!


    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    MAXIMUM RISK = 2% * ACCOUNT BALANCE.

    STOP LOSS = 10 PIPS. (INCLUDING SPREAD)

    POSITION SIZE = RISK / STOP LOSS.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    1) To trade like a RAT is to ALWAYS trade in ONE DIRECTION - either LONG or SHORT. Once you pick a "team", you can't switch.

    2) The "within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily high/low" is the BEST possible entry to get the maximum run BUT the RAT REVERSAL entry works ANYWHERE on the chart.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  145. [​IMG]


    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

    ============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the
    forum. Thank you.
     
  146. [​IMG]

    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

    ============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the
    forum. Thank you.
     

  147. Do your methods work on stocks EOD or intraday? Thank you.

    Tim
     
  148. 30 - 20 = 10

    [​IMG]

    The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  149. [​IMG]


    1) price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

    2) red candle closes

    3) green candle closes - note the high price of the green candle.

    4) enter long at the green candle's high price

    5) STOP LOSS IS 10 PIPS (INCLUDING SPREAD)

    6) Take whatever profit you can.

    7) If the rules do not mention it, then it is of no concern.


    "The technique is so simple that just several lessons (or a few pages of explanations) cover it all. Now what? Now the student has to practice, practice and practice again to understand what he had been taught. The teacher DOES know much more than the student, but his understanding can't be "passed", "transferred" or taught in any way -- not even by reading books."


    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  150. I have gone thru few of your videos (they are good btw). And I have been seeing your posts in different forums and still ppl continue to give a flak and u still continue to do the same thing:)

    I do believe you have an edge which is difficult to follow for everyone though you try hard. Instead of posting so many posts/pages, you could try a different approach. Just explain the rules more clearly either in video or thru posts Just Only Once. No need to repeat the same story/text in each and every post. This will save lots of time for you and others too.

    Ofcourse you are not obligated but just a suggestion.

    Kent
     
  151. Hi TRO,

    just a question regarding one of your rules ...

    1) To trade like a RAT is to ALWAYS trade in ONE DIRECTION - either LONG or SHORT. Once you pick a "team", you can't switch.


    Why do you think this is so important, to just trade in one direction ? I think this can make some sense, I would just like to hear your logic behind this rule.

    And how long do you stay with one team ? One trading day ? All the week ? Until the trend is changing ? Forever ?

    Thx in advance for your feedback, and have a great weekend.
    CALLumbus
     
  152. Have you read THE BLACK SWAN?

    One reason to trade in only one direction is to make the BLACK SWAN have a chance to work for you.

    If you only trade long, the day the price spikes up, you cash in big. However, if you are switching between long and short, you could be short during long spikes and long during short spikes.
     
  153. Kent, if you can tell me what is difficult for YOU to follow or understand, then perhaps I can explain it and others will understand, too.

    Please tell me what rules are not clear to you?


    1) price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

    2) red candle closes

    3) green candle closes - note the high price of the green candle.

    4) enter long at the green candle's high price

    5) STOP LOSS IS 10 PIPS (INCLUDING SPREAD)

    6) Take whatever profit you can.

    7) If the rules do not mention it, then it is of no concern.
     
  154. What would 20 and 10 pips be in ES, how about NQ and YM

    thx
     
  155. Let me see if I get this. Say we are in a downtrend. I could just have a trailing 20 pip stop entry?, since we never know where the low of the day will actually be.
     
  156. I think what TRO is saying a LOW has already been established at some point. The price moved outside that area by > 20 pips and is "revisiting" (< 20 pips),setting off alert for a potential trade.

    Bottom line, you don't have to 'know' ,it already 'is'.
     
  157. Ok, so it is a breakout of the 20 pop trailing alert and a pullback? When do you enter on this pullback?
     
  158. Hi,

    this does not make alot of sense in my oppinion.

    If you trade only long you have the chance of the price spiking up in your direction. But you have also the risk of a black swan against you.
    If you trade both long and short, you have the chance to catch both an up or down spike, but you have also 2 times the risk, you could get caught by an up or down black swan.

    You said this is ONE reason to trade only in one direction. What are other reasons you have in mind ? I think what you say makes alot of sense, I would just like to understand more of your thought process behind it. And when do you change the direction of your trades ? The next day ? Or when the big, longer term trend is changing ?

    Thx !
    CALLumbus


     
  159. [​IMG]

    1) To trade like a RAT is to ALWAYS trade in ONE DIRECTION - either LONG or SHORT. Once you pick a "team", you can't switch.

    2) The "within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily high/low" is the BEST possible entry to get the maximum run.
     
  160. If you only trade in one direction, then you sooner or later you'll be on the profitable side of the trade.
     
  161. I do not know.

    You would have to run a frequency distribution to find the "sweet spot".
     
  162. No. That's not what the rules say.

    You want to enter within 20 pips of the high for red rats and 20 pips of the low for green rats.
     
  163. To be fair to TRO, he does give an exit strategy, so with clearly defined entry and exits, the method should be easy to code up and run an EA for.
     
  164. I can see where the 'prompt' is to enter a trade, but I would like to know if there is a minimum size to the 'wick'.

    Surely, a one pip 'wick'would not qualify as a prompt.
     
  165. [​IMG]


    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

    ============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the
    forum. Thank you.
     
  166. I thought you said you were gone and not coming back?

    I post OPPORTUNITY then I post RESULTS. Each gauge/chart that I post has a time stamp in the upper left hand corner so the reader can see these are not posted AFTER THE FACT!!

    I don't take every trade. An EA that takes every trade could easily produce a negative equity curve.

    Perhaps if you ran a EA for the time period that you trade, you might have a POSITIVE EQUITY CURVE if you had it STOP TRADING once you achieved your daily goal.
     
  167. What "wick" are you talking about??
     
  168. Damn, the very chart I was going to refer to on page 26 has been removed!! I seem to recall that there might have been 4 or 5 pips in your illustration on that chart.

    See if I can describe iit in words.

    <20 from low.

    A green popped up. For argument sake closed 46. Was high as 48 (wick=2). Next 5 minute bar eventually got to 48 (2 pip 'wick').

    Would that signal a BUY?

    If not, what is the minimum number of pips ,from high to close of previous bar ,would create a prompt to buy?

    Edit: My mistake, not page 26. It was a different forum,fxfisherman,entry #19, page 2. Under the title "Drain the Banks"
     
  169. [​IMG]

    The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  170. NOT AT ALL!!

    The LONG ENTRY is within 20 pips of the current daily low, NOT the current daily high!!
     
  171. [​IMG]

    Once again....


    The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  172. Tro's exit strategy

    6) Take whatever profit you can.

    That isn't a clearly defined exit in my opinion.
     
  173. He posted an exit strategy a good deal more detailed than that earlier in the thread. It is there, go and look.
     
  174. Ok . Poor reference on my part.

    So getting back to my written example where current price <20 pips of current daily low.

    If there is a green that closed ,say 46 but the high was 48 in that 5 minute bar.Is the prompt for a BUY at 48 on the next bar.That being 2 pips above the closing price?

    If not, what is the minimum number of pips to cover you would accept to create the trade on the next 5 minute bar?
     
  175. exit strategy in quotes below.

     
  176. I'll take your word for it.
     
  177. [​IMG]

    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

    ============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the
    forum. Thank you.
     

  178. It's easy to bash others. It is really a pity you spend so much time putting me and others down, when you could take that same time and share the knowledge that you claim to have and help your fellow traders.

    The real question is: Where's your thread?
     
  179. And where is your answer to my question on the previous page.

    BTW, I agree with your basic logic of "daily high/low" and no indicators.It is the only factual part of the daily price movement.
     
  180. You know what bugs me about you

    You supposedly are a good trader, yet you can't spell out your strategy clearly with exits and all

    You are either selling smoke, or you are afraid simplicity will give you only 5 min fame

    I don't know ANY serious trader doing online what you are doing. I thought you were down to earth good old fashioned no bullshit black man. But now I am not so sure.
     
  181. i do not follow much stuff ... BUT the buy zone strategy is truily a GEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
  182. In fairness, TRO does offer an 'exit plan'. The trailing stop,which is one way,but it does not necessarily mean that TRO trades, if in fact he does trade at all, using the trailing stop.
     


  183. 1) price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

    2) red candle closes

    3) green candle closes - note the high price of the green candle.

    4) enter long at the green candle's high price

    5) STOP LOSS IS 10 PIPS

    6) Take whatever profit you can.

    7) If the rules do not mention it, then it is of no concern.

    So long as 1, 2 and 3 are true in your example then 48 would be the long entry.
     
  184. 6) Take whatever profit you can.
     


  185. 1) price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

    2) red candle closes

    3) green candle closes - note the high price of the green candle.

    4) enter long at the green candle's high price

    5) STOP LOSS IS 10 PIPS

    6) Take whatever profit you can.

    7) If the rules do not mention it, then it is of no concern.

    What is not clear about the above rules?

    Exit strategy is based on you creating your own EXIT PLAY BOOK.

    MAXIMUM RISK = 2% * ACCOUNT BALANCE.

    STOP LOSS = 10 PIPS. (INCLUDING SPREAD)

    POSITION SIZE = RISK / STOP LOSS.

    It is up to the trader to determine what risk they are comfortable with.

    Some traders think 2% is too high, so they make adjustments to the above equations.

    Some traders think 10 pips is too tight, so they make adjustments to the above equations.

    “I am not forcing you to accept my concepts. I only request the traders to review the market from time to time keeping in mind my concepts and if found suitable use in the trades or just ignore. Thanks for your opinion.”
     
  186. The trailing stop is one way to exit.

    Sometimes, instead of using trailing stops, you exit part of the position, move the stop to break even and let the rest of the position ride. That is one way of capturing the bigger moves.
     
  187. TRO, I am thinking about settling in here in this house. I have to say that I am a real live trader, and I have traded everything, and have evolved to the level of price action only. I can scalp the FX if that tells you anything.

    I think the problem most have with you here is that you are what is called a stealth vendor. If you just paid ET their sponsor fees, then I doubt anyone would come after you after that.

    Also, if you are selling stuff, then please, for many reasons, make sure the stuff works. There is so much BS in this business. If you are an honest vendor, you could go down a the FX version of Welles Wilder.

    Just sayin.
     
  188. horseshit. just look at all the threads denigrating ET sponsors. paying for an ET sponsorship spot does not do anything for you here.

    putting up a useful journal is what does it. mostly. and even then, you'll still have to put up with crap because, well, this is the internet.
     
  189. Over my time here at ET, I have noticed that most traders are frustrated at their being part of the 95%, so they lash out.

    TRO has a testable method, and I am sure someone is coding it up right now.

    He seems to be a systems and not a discretionary trader.

    As far as him selling stuff, if the buyers do not do their due diligence, then that is their fault.

    At any rate, he has a set number of rules, and these rules can be coded. We will see shortly if this method has any legs.
     
  190. I agree.
     
  191. [​IMG]


    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

    ============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  192. NO, I am NOT a "stealth vendor".

    I have been posting FREE indicators for about a decade now. I started posting FREE indicators on the eSignal and TradeStation forums. Their partnership vendors didn't like that and I got banned. I got banned on Forex Factory because I talked about NO FIXED SPREAD in forex and told people about EFX Group (now MBT TRADING) BEFORE I was an IB.

    The donational indicators came about because there are people who like to trash me in public but still use my code. I quit posting indicators for a while but a friend suggested I go the shareware route.

    I made the T-shirts for fun. Some people like them. So I sell them.

    I only post the FREE indicators on one forum BECAUSE as a programmer it is easier to maintain the code if it resides in a single location.

    But none of that really matters. I am NOT FORCING ANYONE to use my code, make a donation or buy a T-shirt. You have FREE WILL to try or ignore.

    It's unfortunate that some people can't seem to focus on trading in trading forums.
     
  193. Tango 6 Alpha, the need to criticize simply belies a longing for recognition, appreciation, and validation. None of which, however, can be obtained through criticism.

    I'm sure it's just a phase you're going through.
     
  194. [​IMG]

    Let's clear things up:

    1) To trade like a RAT is to ALWAYS trade in ONE DIRECTION - either LONG or SHORT. Once you pick a "team", you can't switch.

    2) The "within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily high/low" is the BEST possible entry to get the maximum run BUT the RAT REVERSAL entry works ANYWHERE on the chart.

    Trading is GUESSING. If it wasn't, you wouldn't need a STOP LOSS. THINK ABOUT IT!!


    The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.


    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  195. Ah, I see, thanks for sharing that.
     
  196. [​IMG]

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20) - that is OPPORTUNITY

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    Trading is GUESSING. If it wasn't, you wouldn't need a STOP LOSS.

    THINK ABOUT IT!!


    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    MAXIMUM RISK = 2% * ACCOUNT BALANCE.

    STOP LOSS = 10 PIPS. (INCLUDING SPREAD)

    POSITION SIZE = RISK / STOP LOSS.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    1) To trade like a RAT is to ALWAYS trade in ONE DIRECTION - either LONG or SHORT. Once you pick a "team", you can't switch.

    2) The "within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily high/low" is the BEST possible entry to get the maximum run BUT the RAT REVERSAL entry works ANYWHERE on the chart.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  197. TRO, i just found this list of the top ten forex liquidity providers:

    1. Deutsche Bank 18.06
    2. UBS 11.30
    3. Barclays Capital 11.08
    4. Citi 7.69
    5. RBS 6.50
    6. JP Morgan 6.35
    7. HSBC 4.55
    8. Credit Suisse 4.44
    9. Goldman Sachs 4.28
    10. Morgan Stanley 2.91

    So when you say, "drain the banks", would these kinds of banks be what you mean? From what i can gather, whenever a small retail trader makes money in the supposed forex market, it comes out of the accounts of these kinds of banks. Would you concur?
     
  198. Think like a rat LOL. So i was thinking like a rat the whole time. i work with lab rats which makes it even funnier.

    why are you giving out the secrets lol.
    I followed this type of methodology back when i was at my uni (during the financial crisis). i'd say i got pretty lucky gambling my life savings into wachovia and starbuck. Bought wachovia after the merger. starbucks back when they closed shops. Then I bought Chipotle long term cause i loved to eat it in college (had to go long term cause it was effecting my grades). How can you hate quantity + quality for $5-6 burritos. Saw its cross/cultural-demographic appeal and popularity. Read reports etc... I now stick with food orientated businesses, bio-tech, bio-agro, pharmaceutical and the coffee industry stocks.

    On Buying low at a certain pip value works. You just have to have a good exit strategy. I play the stock through my head 100 different times various events. Think out every possibility so you don't stutter a second when the decision has to be made. Combined it with other models. And walah you have a basic system with lower risk and moderate success. If the market is volatile you won't be riding the waves. You'll be cutting short but i guess it does work. You have to play like a robot.

    I'd say I'm a pure bred stock swing trader so i can't give much input on FX but thanks for the post.

    I'm reading up on Forex. Thinking of testing it out in the upcoming month. Building my game at the moment. I feel like it is simpler than stock.

    i apologize for my long anecdotal off topic drunken rant. Think like a rat lol... i study there freaking brains.
     
  199. [​IMG]

    "Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

    The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

    P64 HOW WE DECIDE (italics added)

    =============================================

    "Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

    1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

    2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

    They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

    They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist." - H. Rearden

    =============================================

    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

    ============================================

    WHY ISN'T EVERYBODY DOING IT?

    Most of you know I catch a lot of flak on my forums because SOME PEOPLE don't like the way I post.

    One worn out argument that is used repeatedly is, "If this is so (simple, great, profitable, ), then why isn't everybody doing it?"

    Simple answer is because SOYLENT GREEN is people!

    We all know exercise is great, but how many actually exercise?

    We all know smoking is bad, but how many do it anyway?

    We all know which foods are bad for our health, but how many eat those foods?

    We all know that we should save for our future and spend less than we earn but who does that?

    The list is almost endless.

    As long as there are people, there will always be some STUPID people and some smart people making STUPID decisions, where STUPID is defined as knowing better but acting otherwise.

    Meanwhile, the RATS are still beating the Yale students.

    =============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  200. Tango 6 Alpha/TRO,

    Thanks for answering my post which I thought didnot get posted.

    Again, TRO, instead of posting the same text so many times, you could simply document a 2 page PDF/document with clear entry/exit instructions with screen shots (remove any unnecssary colors/indics and just stick with basic). Please donot keep on repeating the same stuff on every post.

    If your system requires any specific time of the day that is crucial too. If not EA is worthless unless you specify a time /window to EA to start/end trades.

    Also when you day daily low or high, you referring to the prev.daily low/high? If u are referring the current day, how you know it is low or high during the day? We never know the future.

    So many ppl would have asked you to spell out these things in much more clear way but you still continue to repeat the same cut/paste rules. Ofcourse you are not obligated to answer/oblige.

    Thanks for your time/replies. Post more youtube. May be you could be more clear in video than posts:)

    Kent.
     
  201. Kent:

    Repetition is the mother of skill. That is why I repeat the same message. I have been thanked by many traders after they finally "SEE". They told me it took a while but it was reading the same thing over and over that finally made it "click".

    I have answered the daily high/low question before... it is the CURRENT daily high/low. Of course, those levels can change during the day but you still use them BECAUSE sooner or later the current daily high/low will be THE HIGH/LOW for the day.

    If you do not think I am clear, then tell me SPECIFICALLY what is not clear about the rules:


    1) price within 20 pips of the daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

    2) red candle closes

    3) green candle closes - note the high price of the green candle.

    4) enter long at the green candle's high price

    5) STOP LOSS IS 10 PIPS

    6) Take whatever profit you can.

    7) If the rules do not mention it, then it is of no concern.

    Make sure you follow rule #7 BEFORE you ask a question such as "does this system require any specific time of the day?".

    Thanks for taking the time to post.
     
  202. [​IMG]

    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

    ============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  203. <iframe width="480" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/xRTPjzgr3l8" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
     
  204. [​IMG]

    --------------------------------------------------------

    The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  205. Exactly where did you exit on those last two charts and why ?
     
  206. [​IMG]

    Let's clear things up:

    1) To trade like a RAT is to ALWAYS trade in ONE DIRECTION - either LONG or SHORT. Once you pick a "team", you can't switch.

    2) The "within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily high/low" is the BEST possible entry to get the maximum run BUT the RAT REVERSAL entry works ANYWHERE on the chart.

    Trading is GUESSING. If it wasn't, you wouldn't need a STOP LOSS. THINK ABOUT IT!!


    The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.


    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  207. I use my EXIT PLAY BOOK.

    Most of the time, I use PLAN A.
     
  208.  
  209. The reason I exited is because price moved to a level that my exit play book called for an exit.
     
  210. You should consider getting into politics.
     
  211. Not really...

    I wouldn't win because... I use logic and reason rather than appeals to the heart.

    People usually vote for someone they like or vote against someone they don't like. Logic and reason rarely enter into the picture.
     
  212. [​IMG]

    As many of you may know, I have moved back to my ranch. At the moment, I don't have 24/7 internet access due to the rural location. This will change my trading style. I will use the DAILY RAT and look for entry opportunities at/near the weekly open price and at/near the weekly ATR zones. I can set and forget these trades.

    There are videos of the ranch on my YouTube channel. I'll be making a video on my new trading style soon.

    In the chart above, the EURJPY had a RAT REVERSAL setup on the daily chart AND the entry was near the weekly open price. This is an example of the trades I will be doing.

    IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!
     
  213. 2012.07.09 DAILY RAT REPORT

    [​IMG]

    AUDUSD triggered a RED RAD REVERSAL at/near the weekly open.

    The previous week's low, was a potential target or area to move the stop once penetrated.


    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  214. Q) What if the Dominant Trajectory on the WK1, at the point where the D1 Rat reverses, just happens to be opposing the direction of the Rat reversal trade? How do you handle that, TRO?

    A) I follow the RAT TRADING RULES. If I get stopped out, so be it.


    Q) I thought this video turned out to be pretty interesting. What do you think about it?

    A) I don't think much of it. Trading is simple.
     
  215. 2012.07.10 DAILY RAT REPORT

    [​IMG]

    GREEN RAT REVERSAL setup on the AUDUSD at/near the weekly open.

    Yesterday's daily flipped from RED to GREEN and closed green. Today's daily candle, tested yesterday's low and reversed triggering a green rat entry.

    For those of you who think I post trades AFTER THE FACT, let's set the record straight, the entry rules have been posted many, many times:

    GREEN RAT REVERSAL - LONG ENTRY CRITERIA: 1) RED CANDLE CLOSES 2) GREEN CANDLE CLOSES 3) PRICE TOUCHES HIGH OF PREVIOUS GREEN CANDLE - ENTER LONG. .

    RED RAT REVERSAL - SHORT ENTRY CRITERIA: 1) GREEN CANDLE CLOSES 2) RED CANDLE CLOSES 3) PRICE TOUCHES LOW OF PREVIOUS RED CANDLE - ENTER SHORT.

    You know the entry criteria IN ADVANCE so you can participate in the trade if you choose. I have changed the entry slightly because I am not online 24/7. Instead of the high/low entry trigger, I enter at/near the weekly open.

    Remember, STOP LOSS is a function of RISK and POSITION SIZE:

    MAXIMUM RISK = 2% * ACCOUNT BALANCE.

    STOP LOSS = RISK / POSITION SIZE.

    As a trader, you determine your comfortable risk and the position size you are comfortable trading. Then you calculate your stop loss.

    "I am not forcing you to accept my concepts. I only request the traders to review the market from time to time keeping in mind my concepts and if found suitable use in the trades or just ignore. Thanks for your opinion."

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  216. TRO, why do you say that a trader should only follow green rat or red rat reversals, and not both? Why can't you play on both teams?
     
  217. [​IMG]

    I have been working on the PRICE TURN indicators.

    Price "turns" when the candle color of the current candle is not the same as the previous candle's color. You look for price to cross over the previous candle's open to confirm the turn has been made.

    For those who trade trend reversals and/or pull backs, this helps to spot entries.

    I made a YouTube video that explains price turn.
     
  218. "Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

    The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

    P64 HOW WE DECIDE (italics added)
     
  219. I understand your point, but I disagree with your analogy. In the case of the maze, the choice of going left or right is mutually exclusive for the same event. For the trading setups, the mutually exclusive choice would be trading the setup as a reversal or a breakout. You advise to always trade a reversal, which is analagous to always turning left in the maze. This is OK, assuming that probabilities favor this approach. But you can do the same from a daily high (resistance) or daily low (support) and not violate any lesson from the maze experiment. The relevant choice being made is to trade a reversal. Whether that reversal is from a high or low shouldn't matter. The distinction is not red rat vs green rat, it's reversal rat vs breakout rat.

    BTW, I've looked at some of your indicators and you are an exceptional programmer.
     
  220. No, it is a long (green) rat vs a short (red) rat. Does that help?
     
  221. Maybe this will make it clearer...

    It is trading both breakouts AND reversals in the same direction (long or short) vs. trading both directions (long and short).

    The RAT won because it always went in the same direction - left.
     
  222. Price certainly can and does move sideways in time. This is how option seller make money.:)
     
  223. PRICE TURN

    [​IMG]


    Price "turns" when the candle color of the current candle is not the same as the previous candle's color. In the above chart the candles that indicate a price turn up are marked in green and candles indicating the price turned down are marked in red.

    You look for price to cross over the previous candle's open to confirm the turn has been made.

    [​IMG]

    The DOTS on the candles mark the previous open price level. You can see where price crossed the previous open and then reversed. These are entry points.

    If the previous candle has a red line then when price is at/near the previous open (red dot) and moving down, you enter the trade short.

    If the previous candle has a greenline then when price is at/near the previous open (green dot) and moving down, you enter the trade long.

    But you are only looking at one time frame and that's where the multimeter comes in handy...

    [​IMG]

    Some trend traders like to enter on "PULLBACKS". The multimeter makes it easy to see when price is pulling back to the next higher time frame or continuing the "trend". The light blue color means price is going up and price went up on the previous bar. Think "light blue sky". The dark blue color means price is going down and price went down on the previous bar. Think "deep blue sea".

    Look at the M15 chart and you can see price is now turning up and back to the "trend" on M30. H1 is turning up AGAINST the "trend" on H4 and D1. While price is turning down on W1 and going WITH the "trend" on MN1.

    [​IMG]

    Please post any questions you have in this forum. PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH TRADING/INDICATOR QUESTIONS.
     
  224. NO. Price only MOVES up or down. Price has to CHANGE in order for it to move. If there is no change in price, there is no movement. If there is movement, then price changed.

    One must be PRECISE in the use of language.
     
  225. This is incorrect. Thank you for your time.
     
  226. Thanks for this clarification. However, this strategy made more sense to me based on [my misunderstanding of] reversals at high/lows. It seems quite arbitrary to be long-only or short-only without any context of trend. I suppose it could still be effective with good exit technique, which would be the real key to making this work.
     
  227. TRO, I have a printout of that rat study in front of me daily as a reminder to "stay the course" at all times. My swollen brain has always had a chronic tendency to search for a Holier Grail, to attempt to eliminate uncertainty in a field where the only thing 100% certain is uncertainty :p

    Mark Douglas wrote an entire book, the crux of which is:

    "The placement of the food is randomly determined (Fundamental Truth 1: Anything can happen), but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty percent of the time (Fundamental Truth 3: There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge; Fundamental Truth 4: An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another). As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate (Principle 4: I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation; Principle 7: I understand the absolute necessity of these principles of consistent success and, therefore, I never violate them. ). The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. (Fundamental Truth 2: You don’t need to know what is going to happen next to make money.)"


    T13, one of my strategies (automated) involves a single trade each day, and it can (and often does) run totally contrary to everything in my core trading plan. It has no regard for trend or lack thereof. In other words, it will buy into the top of a range, short into the bottom of a range, short off new highs, long off new lows, long following a huge run up, short following a huge drop, and will also trade smack dab in the middle of nowhere. The only requirement for entry into a trade is X (like the mice who learned to always go left, I always take hallway X), and if X triggers a position, I target a profit at favorable excursion Y (food), and take a loss at adverse excursion Z (no food).

    Clearly this appears to be a totally random environment in which to trade profitably. However, the dice are rigged: My research determined that if X triggers a trade entry, Y is likely to be attained around 60% of the time. Couple that with positive R:R and it's a strategy that has yet to experience a losing week.

    "The strategy you choose to trade really doesn’t mean all that much. There are successful traders who trade with a trend, trade counter-trend, trade with tight stops, trade with no stops, average down, average up, trade complex strategies such as option spreads, trade simple strategies such as breakouts. There are just as many total failures who attempt each of these.

    It’s not the method or style of trading that improves ones chances of success. It’s the research, development of a trading plan, and sufficient practice that make or break those who set out on the path to trade for a living." - NoDoji

    Great thread!
     
  228. [​IMG]

    Every "trend" reversal will start with a "price turn" pattern on the chart.

    Identifying this pattern on all of the time frames will help you select trade direction.

    I prefer to trade with the WEEKLY direction rather than against it.

    When price turns against the weekly direction on lower time frames, I wait.

    I will enter when price turns back to the weekly direction.

    It is even better when weekly and monthly are in sync.

    All you have to do is LOOK at the charts and SEE!!
     
  229. [​IMG]

    Some people understand better in English than in pictures, charts, tables, etc...
     
  230. tro, what platform do you use? Have you used the rat reversal before in automated trading? Maybe this will be better than daily candlesticks while you are at your rural home.
     
  231. WHAT IF YOU WERE COLORBLIND...

    [​IMG]

    Could you trade?

    [​IMG]

    Does that help you see when PRICE TURNS?
     
  232. I use several MT4 brokers for live feeds. When I trade Forex, I use MB Trading.
     
  233. Hosea, so the monies you save in Section 8 housing in Antioch, CA allows for the purchase of a Huayra? It's not Huyara, BTW.
     
  234. :eek:
     
  235. Video on Price Turn Multi Meter

    <iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/i7EoODYeaSc" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
     
  236. TRO

    You generally state there is no trend yet in your video you speak of trend?

    How you explain these price turns in the video has me confused:

    If all you are doing is waiting for the current bar to be a different colour from the previous bar and hitting a line, how is this any different to your 'horizontal line' strategy? Or the 'famous' 'buzzard reversal'. There's no difference whatsoever as far as I can see and even on the chart you post I see whipsaw after whipsaw as price hits the line, then falls again thus changing color. You mention price testing the low first the going up and hitting the line. Yeah, well we can't see what really happened inside that H1 candle you love to post can we?? How many times did it really bounce around within the hour and take out your famous 10 pip (including spread) stop?

    Now if what you mean is the 'price turn' candle closes a different color to the previous candle and you then enter on the following candle..that's just another variation of your 'rat' entry and I still fail to see why an indicator is required to see that an arbitrary price bar closed a different color to the previous arbitrary price bar.

    You also say in the video the reason for entering the market has no bearing on outcome. I agree to some extent. In which case your entry method and indicator are, ergo, useless.

    So you have a 10 pip stop, a useless entry method and no defined exit (which is what you state makes you money).

    Here comes the 'exit playbook'


    :(
     
  237. Tango/Hosea... You should have given it a rest for a few days before coining a new nick. You owe me $10MM.
     
  238. How to understand and use frequency distribution in your trading.

    http://youtu.be/0YlTX1W3Y9k

    <iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/0YlTX1W3Y9k" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>


    =============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  239. Greetings, FX operators.

    First time seeing this thread. Thanks, rumpledone for sharing your method and videos. You have quite a personality.

    :)

    You read my mind. I'm firing up easylanguage tonight and seeing how far I get. I'm thinking 3-8 lines of code is all it's gonna take.

    :cool:

    *edit - already got the core entry coded up and so far it looks very good on AAPL 15 minute chart. I'm using a 100 share position size, $200 stop loss and $200 floor before applying 10% trailing stop.

    :eek:
     
  240. PF 2.04, but I didn't add the comm's / slippage. Typically this has a minor effect.

    Great stuff! Kudos to the OP for sharing something SIMPLE that works.

    [​IMG]
     
  241. Why not use a non trending up stock like MSFT and see if your code works. Its easy in hindsight to recognize a bull market and design a strategy that works for it, but then in a bear market, all these strategies blow up.

     
  242. I was just thinking the same thing. Buy 'n hold would have generated about $8k during the same time period, but with larger dd's

    More to come......

    :cool:
     
  243. Yikes, 60% win rate, PF 2.4+

    Granted, I actually had to spend a couple minutes fishing for exit parameters on this one. MSFT likes 'em tight.

    [​IMG]

    :eek:
     
  244. [​IMG]

    PRICE TURN...
    It should be obvious to the reader that once price turns, there is a statistically higher chance that price will continue in the same direction.
     
  245. MSFT is not a "cow" by definition and that's why it shouldn't be used. Had you read the thread, you would know that.

    Most traders make the mistake of using a method on any instrument INSTEAD OF doing the statistical analysis and see which instruments work best with the method.

    You would NEVER use penny stocks for BUY ZONE trading.

    You would NEVER use "cows" for RUN FOREST RUN type trading.
     
  246. I am not sure how you are coding this so I can't comment if you are following it as designed. But your results look good. You are proving what I have been posting about for years. Most are too blind and/or too stubborn to SEE.

    I would love to see your code.
     
  247. No, that's not me. I don't beleive in his/her nonesense either and his constant TRO baiting all over the net is boring in the extreme. No, my questions to TRO were entirely genuine I was just pointing out a few things, perhaps in an inflamatory way I know, and also mentioning some of the things I guess TRO would fire back, if he bothered at all; not trolling but I highly doubt if TRO will fully address my concerns as in all the years I've seen him also posting here there and everywhere I've yet to see him fully address ANYTHING when asked.
     
  248. No, you are not even close to the truth, and TRO will not tell you, so here I go again. Retail rarely interacts with Prime Brokers. When you open and fund an account with a Spot Currency broker you are put on a hub, the lowest tier is were most traders are. At this point you are executing against liquidity provided by other small traders and the brokers "inventory", these are "units that are floated in the liquidity so that you can buy and sell, even if there is no small trader liquidity at that price, also if your broker has an investment arm, you might have their liquidity on your hub. The next tier up generally costs 80-100k US, with a minimum of 40k units executed per trade. For this you might have one Prime Broker added to you Hub.

    Just because you see trades going off at 10Mio units a pop, does not mean a small trader will execute against them. So while Drain The Banks is catchy, and I like the way it sounds, butt it is not entirely accurate. Now, TRO will bury my post with three billion of his over-sized charts.

    By the way TRO and I are about the same age and I don't need charts that big, so there must be another reason he uses them :D

    The Ever "Has Anybody Here Seen My Old Friend Cable, Can You Tell Me Where He's Gone" VIPER
     
  249. I think i covered this already in a thread called Forex: Where does the liquidity come from...or something like that. I really don't believe that small traders are providing liquidity for each other. On the other hand, it's not as if Morgan Stanley is taking the other side of my trade either. I understand it like i understand casinos. They are not playing against any player. They are playing the odds, the numbers, the statistics. If Morgan Stanley provides enough liquidity to the brokers who facilitate the trades of small traders, they will come out ahead because more will lose than win. If that were not the case, then they would quit that aspect of business, and let the "lower" tier work it out for themselves. Sure, some brokers may be trying to play the same game...take as many trades as possible to win by odds. But it appears to me the main are just facilitating and taking fees/spreads. So the way i see it, a small traders winnings come from Morgan Stanley the same way a gamblers winnings come from the casino. Do they come from other losing gamblers? In a roundabout way yes, i suppose. But nothing direct.

    Also, 'lower' or 'bottom' tier means nothing to me. 'Hub' means even less. I only understand more shenanigans, less shenanigans, more latency, less latency, higher transaction fees, lower... fair, not fair. If you're saying you can buy your way into a more fair system, then say that.

    I haven't been to ET in weeks and today i find this message. Hmmm...

    Good1
     
  250. PM'd it to you over a week ago but perhaps your inbox is off limitz.....

    :confused:

    I agree that cows do not produce great tails. Found this out the hard way myself.
     
  251. A must read!! THINKING FAST AND SLOW by Daniel Kahneman


    <iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/jKl21h3D9Zw" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
     
  252. I just checked my PM box ... Thanks.
     
  253. I always answer questions that are civilized in nature.

    If you do not like my answers, perhaps you need to ask better questions. Many times the question has been answered. Other times, the person asking the question must discover the answer for themselves.

    People have a tendency to complicate simple things.
     

  254. True, I don't believe in "trend" because trend is what the trader says it is... it is conceptual in nature. However, after the fact, traders look back and point to where the trend started (turned). In each and every case a PRICE TURN occurred. Therefore, those who use "trend" in their trading should be aware of PRICE TURN and when the last price turn occurred.

    You ask how it is different. Did I say it was different? Do you see a difference? The difference is that price turn tells the trader what is happening with price based on when the last turn occurred - 1) turning up, 2) trending up, 3) turning down or 4) trending down.

    This has nothing to do with the horizontal line though you can use price turn with a horizontal line to decide whether or not to enter a trade, trade direction and where to enter.

    Buzzard reversal includes a price turn but not every price turn is a Buzzard reversal.

    Yes, a Rat Reversal includes a price turn.

    "You also say in the video the reason for entering the market has no bearing on outcome" Yes, that is true. ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN after you enter a trade therefore your reason for entry does not guarantee you a profit.

    "So you have a 10 pip stop, a useless entry method and no defined exit (which is what you state makes you money). " Any tool is "useless" if you don't know how and when to use it.

    I see you are familiar with the EXIT PLAY BOOK.

    Your "questions" have been answered. Best of luck to you. Thanks for posting.
     
  255. I've got that Nike golf cap. Fits great. :p
     
  256. THINKING FAST AND SLOW - Another must read book...



    <iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/_XQM5hl_LF8" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
     
  257. That's not a Nike cap...LOL!
     
  258. [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Is is EASY TO SEE that PRICE IS THE SAME when you plot the HH/LL for all of the time frames and see that PRICE is in the same position relative to the HH/LL for each time frame no matter your chart time frame.
     
  259.  
  260. [​IMG]

    I know it's been a while but I am pretty settled in at the ranch. Back to trading and coding on a regular recurring basis. Though my focus isn't on scalping since I am not online 24/7. Looking at simple entries over longer periods of time. Emphasis on statistical trading at HORIZONTAL LINES. No squiggleys needed.

    And if you are looking for an argument, you won't get one. I don't have the time or bandwidth to spare.
     
  261. The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ? but Some Don't by Nate Silver

    GOOD BOOK!

    Here's my video:

    http://youtu.be/ORssqo3I2qQ
     

  262. Really good ideas, rumpled one. Great to see a true outside the box thinker. Bravo!!
     
  263. :p
     
  264. Money management is very important trader should improve their money management skills so that we can trade safely and securely and will be manage to generate the reasonable profit from the risky Forex market.
     
  265. [​IMG]

    Take the trade in the direction price leaving the daily wick zones.

    Of course, trade with the H1 and D1 candle colors.

    MADE A YOUTUBE VIDEO
     
  266. Interesting videos, thanks for posting them.

    I mostly trade index futures and would love to see some of their stats vs the Forex studies you did, is it possible to load the typical CME futures in MT or is MT strictly for Forex?

    Thanks again.
     
  267. MT4 can be used for any instrument that a MT4 Broker has to offer. You would have to search for such a broker.
     
  268. Ya that's a tough one, as Ive had a long term relationship with mine.

    Sad to see MT4 does not support Interactive Brokers, your work is great TRO.
     
  269. Hey TRO,

    For any prior bar, price opened, moved, and closed. The current bar opens within a proximity to it (upper, lower, middle), a trade may be entered then price moves and closes. The further left you look on a chart the longer the timeframe you are trading. If price is going up, using price turn you can label any prior low open the point where price turns from green to red.

    When you say only trade in the direction of muliple timeframe bars are these all bars that have closed? For example prior 30 minute bar up, but current 30 minute bar down, as long as price is above prior 30 minute bar open (and 4 hour bar or next longest timeframe), we would enter on a 5 minute bar price turn up?

    Thank you for all your contributions.
     
  270. "When you say only trade in the direction of muliple timeframe bars are these all bars that have closed?"

    NO!

    The current candle colors are what matters. - their colors should all agree.

    If W1 , D1 and H1 are the same color, chances are price will continue in the same direction.

    When the colors are mixed, you are fighting against someone. This is what gets many traders into trouble.

    A simple rule of thumb of only being long above the weekly open and daily open, weeds out the "weak" long trades. Of course, after price has moved to or past its usual daily trading range, it is time to look for long exits and take profit.

    EURUSD this week shows how effective this can be,,,

    [​IMG]

    The orange line is the weekly open.

    Trying to short the EURUSD above the weekly open and daily open this week would have drained YOUR bank. But I would imagine there were a few traders putting their shorts on because of what they "thought".

    Don't trade what you "think"... trade what you SEE!
     
  271. The monthly traders would defend their shorting using the same argument that you used to defend the trade of this past week. The same argument could therefore be working in one time frame, and leading to losses in another time frame. Any comments on this seeming inconsistency?

    If what to do going forward early this week is the question, I would start this week by shorting it at 1.3896 and above.
     
  272. you got a point :eek:
     
  273. Could 2) and 3) also run in internal inconsistency?

    Less trivial inconsistencies could also arise between 1) and 2). Less trivial does not mean they do not exist or that they are not the norm. To trade successfully is to select that which does not have inconsistencies, and to control oneself to stay when one should stay and to get out quick when one should get out quick. It then boils down to knowing the whens and wheres of the shoulds. Trading is about rewarding good judgement using the penalties assigned to bad judgement. As a result, there would always be a small number who judge right, and a larger number who judge wrong. My above mentioned eur/usd "trade" is based on my current judgement of the shoulds at the current price and time of eur/usd.



    (1), 2) and 3) were added to make reference easier)
     
  274. EUR/USD is trading 50 pips lower, supporting my thoughts about EUR/USD in the two posts I made above.
     
  275. It has nothing to do with time frame... it has to do with PRICE!!

    PRICE IS THE SAME ON ALL TIME FRAMES.

    If you are short, you are short no matter what time frame you are looking at.

    Profit/loss has nothing to do with time frames. P/L depends on where price is relative to your entry.

    Otherwise, all one would have to do is switch time frames to turn losses into profits, which is ludicrous.
     
  276. I understand your point.

    However, that's where a trader's trading plan comes in.

    Thanks for posting.
     
  277. If the poster named Peternam could jump in, he might give another explanation of my point as he seems to have understood it.
     
  278. any particular reasons that you have a skull and bones just before "drain the banks" ?
     
  279. [​IMG]

    Take the trade in the direction price leaving the daily wick zones.

    Of course, trade with the H1 and D1 candle colors.
     
  280. We call ourselves FOREX PIRATES.
     
  281. [​IMG]

    Take the trade in the direction price leaving the daily wick zones.

    Of course, trade with the H1 and D1 candle colors.
     
  282. TRO,

    The rat reversal trade does not require you to go with any higher timeframe, correct? If I wanted to fade a daily high/low I would need a bar of the timeframe I am trading to close in the opposite direction (within X tics of the extreme) followed by the current bar breaking it's high/low. It might make sense to only be a green rat if we are above current weekly open, etc but the current daily and hourly would not matter if I were trading off the 5 minute?

    Hope all is well for you.
    FS
     

  283. PRICE IS THE SAME ON ALL CHARTS!!


    Changing time frames is just changing the data compression.
     
  284. They say the devil is in the details, and I still don't understand how you profit on these. In your daily wick zone 4 video you show a trade that goes up 10 pips. But what about when price comes down in to the box and then pops back out (the wicks on the following candles). Those were biased to the upside would you take those too? If so, you would probably break even/lose on the day. If not, why wouldn't you?
     

  285. Does this dude strike you as successful?
     
  286. [​IMG]

    Years later, still working.

    GOT CHEESE?
     
  287. Depends on many factors but over trading is a big problem for many traders. I caution traders to have modest daily goals and to build up slowly. Yes, you may miss opportunities but better to miss out than get wiped out.

    Thanks for the question.
     
  288. Looks can be very deceiving...

    Would you prefer someone who shows up in front of a (rented) mansion in a (rented) Ferrari, wearing a (borrowed) Rolex watch and a tailored (fake) Armani suit who sells trading systems for thousands of dollars?

    If you didn't know Warren Buffet by sight, what would you assume he is a billionaire or a dirt farmer?
     
  289. I have learned not judge a book by its cover and I have seen traders that can trade in a way many can't. I just can't wrap my head around what trades to take, when to exit (win/losing) based on what you are showing. I guess we all need to take ideas and make them our own to be successful. I do agree with the idea of judging bias via weekly/daily open.
     
  290. First thing is to unwrap your head and empty out all of the trading stuff that has been crammed in there.

    Now, look at a chart with fresh eyes.... What do you see?

    [​IMG]
     
  291. I see a shark waiting for the small fish to come by....
     
  292. I see trade opportunities if/when the price action enters that key price area as shown on the edited chart of your chart.
     
  293. [​IMG]

    WEEKLY OPEN CROSS

    ALL YOU NEED TO TRADE IS A HORIZONTAL LINE!
     
  294. [​IMG]

    GET READY FOR THE YEARLY OPEN CROSS....
     
  295. [​IMG]

    HISTOGRAM shows how profitable taking this trade can be....

    Green bars are HIGH minus WEEKLY OPEN.

    Red bar are WEEKLY OPEN - LOW.

    The bars represent potential profit opportunities.
     
  296. [​IMG]

    WAITING.....

    :)
     
  297. As E.F. Schumacher once said,

    “Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction.”
     
  298. [​IMG]

    I am paraphrasing an email I received today:

    Thus, if you over think or over analyze your trade, try to force it, or try to be too perfect with your performance, you are guilty of getting in your own way.

    Most of the time, traders get in their own way because of fear of failure or perfectionism.

    When you get out of your own way, you allow yourself to trade freely without expectations or pressure. You allow yourself to just do it and trust in your skills.

    Two mental keys can help you get out of your own way:

    (1) Understand the core issue that blocks your performance and cope better with this, such as fear of failure, fear of embarrassment, or perfectionism.

    (2) Learn how to let go and trust what you have trained yourself to do in practice. We call this the performance mindset.
     
  299. [​IMG]

    You would have to watch 48 charts or more to SEE these values on your charts.
     
  300. [​IMG]

    May want to consider the AUD pairs considering they have moved almost twice their ADR...
     
  301. [​IMG]

    USDCHF closing in on the YTD open...
     
  302. [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]



    Not too shabby!!
     
  303. [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Not too shabby!!
     
  304. The RAT:

    [​IMG]

    DAILY WICK ZONE:

    [​IMG]

    Either way is a winner!
     
  305. [​IMG]

    Another nice daily wick trade.
     
  306. [​IMG]

    Daily Wick Zone - price leaves the zone over 70% of the time.
     
  307. TRADING VIDEO:
     
  308.  
  309. In youtube your video has a link to a website, and the website a link to a 50$ or more donation only for this indicator. In essence, you masking a business here without paying Baron his share.
     
  310. Not a business at all. If I were running an indicator business, I would have no time to trade.

    Donations get you an entire year's worth of indicators. Or you can download some of my indicators for free. The MT4 MOTHERLODES are not hard to find.
     
  311. Semantics, you are still soliciting money, naming it donation, does not change your annual fee.
     
  312. I do not solicit.

    Do you have a personal issue with me that needs to be resolved? Have I harmed you in some way?
     
  313. No, I just think that you are abusing the rules of the board, but if it's fine with the mods, I guess you get a free pass versus paying sponsors.
     
  314.  
  315.  
  316.  
  317.  


  318.  
  319.  
  320.  
  321.  


  322. This is NOT an advertisement. You do not need indicators to make money trading.
     


  323. This is NOT an advertisement. You do not need indicators to make money trading.
     
  324. They are however, helpful.
     
  325. Great video
    Was trading today with a couple of your latest TRO buttons and HOLO trading
    great entries not a signal but an evaluation of price movement , typical TrO style zones.
    Thanks
    [​IMG]
     
  326.  
  327. Another great adition, many thx TRO more pips coming my way Pho
     
  328. Might we ever hear einstein statement, we should make everything is simple, but not simpler
    I think in trading forex also we can trying make simple analysis although not easy to making accurate all the time but with simple we can easily to understand
     
  329. I think practice makes us more experienced in trading forex, i guess this is what you are trying to say..right!
     
  330.  
  331.  
  332.  
  333. The Man, The Myth, The Miata, what is up Dog :D. Now all we need is for Cabletrader to show up and we can put the band back together, you on Bass, me on Keys, and Cable on Drums. It will be Yuuuuuuuge.

    The Ever Lovin My B3 Clone VIPER
     
  334. I have been playing guitar lately.







    And wrote 2 more that I have to record. I am cracking myself up with these songs!

    No more Miatas. Sure do miss them. Out in the country now. Have Ford Ranger pickups. Simple, quiet, country life.
     
  335.  
  336.  
  337.  
  338. you can know the probabilities of winning or losing.

    you can know your average win size.

    ^ what is missing from every trader's arsenal, is obtainable.

    trading is simple, timing and accuracy is not.
     
  339.  
  340.  
  341.  
  342.  
  343. Trading is quite simple as just clicking mouse buttons, but I think to gain the sufficient knowledge and experience and skills to become a successful trader.
     
  344.  
  345.  
  346.  
  347. Forex Trading is the best way to make some good money online, but I don't think that it would be a simple task to do that.
     
  348.  
  349.  
  350.  
  351.  
  352.  
  353.  
  354.  
  355.  
  356.  
  357. Great explanation. Nicely broken down.
     
  358. Trading is not at all an easy task, You need to have lots and lots of knowledge and experience and skills to make some good money in the Forex Market.
     
  359. Awesome! I knew I recognized the name, but it wasn't until I saw the pic that I realized from where, "How to make money with a truck!" Or something along those lines. You bought a book and simply followed the directions. Thanks for posting your method.
     
  360.  
  361. Yes, I did that as an experiment to see if I could follow instructions to the letter and if the method worked. I could and it did. Was a good lesson.

    I still have the book and I chuckle when I see it. Thanks for the reminder.
     
  362. I disagree with the "lots and lots" part.

    Have you ever heard of Bruce Lee? One of his quotes:

    "I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times."

    You only need one method and one instrument to "make some good money in the Forex Market".

    "I am not forcing you to accept my concepts. I only request the traders to review the market from time to time keeping in mind my concepts and if found suitable use in the trades or just ignore. Thanks for your opinion."
     
  363.  
  364. Yeah, you got that right that I am not agreed that we need a single strategy or kick to survive in the Forex Market. You need more than one strategy believe it or not, no strategy would work for each and every condition of the Forex Market.
     
  365.  
  366. My strategies work for each and every condition of the Forex Market because they are based on true price action. Price will move away from the open, every day and Price will reverse off of the daily highs and daily lows everyday. The "market condition" has no effect on my strategies. Please see previous video.

    The only "market condition" that causes my (all) strategies not to work is when the market is closed.

    Thank you for being civil in your reply, CyberWarrior.
     
  367. Price moves sideways as well.
     
  368. No, price does NOT move sideways...

    For price to move, either price increases or decreases.

    If there is no increase or decrease then price has not moved.

    Now, price may move within a range. But that is still motion.

    QED.
     
  369. This is false. Price moves sideways as well.
     
  370. Ok. Prove your point. I am listening.
     
  371. Price prints at 11 AM at 50.16 and prints at 11:01AM at 50.16. Price moves sideways. This is incontrovertible
     
  372. You have to define what you mean by move:

    move
    mo͞ov/
    verb
    verb: move; 3rd person present: moves; past tense: moved; past participle: moved; gerund or present participle: moving
    1. 1.
      go in a specified direction or manner; change position.
      "she stood up and moved to the door"
      synonyms: go, walk, proceed, progress, advance; More
      budge, stir, shift, change position
      "she moved to the door"
      • change the place or position of.
        "she moved the tray to a side table"
        synonyms: carry, transport, transfer, shift
        "he moved the chair closer to the fire"
      • change one's place of residence or work.
        "his family moved to London when he was a child"
        synonyms: relocate, move away, change one's address, leave, go away, go down the road, decamp, pull up stakes
        "she's moved to Rotterdam"
      • (of a player) change the position of a piece in a board game.
        "White has forced his opponent to move"
    2. 2.
      change or cause to change from one state, opinion, sphere, or activity to another.
      "the school moved over to the new course in 1987"
      synonyms: change, budge, shift one's ground, change one's tune, change one's mind, have second thoughts; More
      make a U-turn, do an about-face
      "they are not prepared to move on this issue"
      • influence or prompt (someone) to do something.
        "his deep love of music moved him to take lessons with Dr. Hill"
        synonyms: inspire, prompt, stimulate, motivate, provoke, influence, rouse, induce, incite
        "she was moved to act"
      • take action.
        "hard-liners may yet move against him, but their success might be limited"
        synonyms: take action, act, take steps, do something, take measures;
        informalget moving
        "he urged the council to move quickly"
      • provoke a strong feeling, especially of sorrow or sympathy, in.
        "he was moved to tears by a get-well message from the president"
      • archaic
        stir up (an emotion) in someone.
        "he justly moves one's derision"
        synonyms: affect, touch, impress, shake, upset, disturb, make an impression on
        "I was deeply moved by the story"
    3. 3.
      make progress; develop in a particular manner or direction.
      "aircraft design had moved forward a long way"
      synonyms: (make) progress, make headway, advance, develop
      "things were moving too fast"
      • informal
        depart; start off.
        "let's move—it's time we started shopping"
      • informal
        used to urge or command someone to hurry up.
        "come on—move it!"
      • informal
        go quickly.
        "Kenny was really moving when he made contact with a tire at the hairpin and flipped over"
      • (with reference to merchandise) sell or be sold.
        "despite the high prices, goods are moving"
    4. 4.
      spend one's time or be socially active in (a particular sphere) or among (a particular group of people).
      "they moved in different circles of friends"
      synonyms: circulate, mix, socialize, keep company, associate;
      informalhang out/around
      "she moves in the art world"
    5. 5.
      propose for discussion and resolution at a meeting or legislative assembly.
      "she intends to move an amendment to the bill"
      synonyms: propose, submit, suggest, advocate, recommend, urge
      "I move that we adjourn"
      • make a formal request or application to (a court or assembly) for something.
        "his family moved the court for adequate “maintenance expenses” to run the household"
    6. 6.
      empty (one's bowels).
    noun
    noun: move; plural noun: moves
    1. 1.
      a change of place, position, or state.

    The only thing that changed in your example was time.

    Price did not change, therefore, it did not move.

    QED.
     
  373.  
  374. I don’t believe that trading is that simple as we are reading or writing about it in any journal. The reason is: as forex market is a volatile market and highly competitive also prediction will not always be right, rather there is a huge chance that prediction can be wrong. Again as we think that we can profit , it always not happened in that amount and as we wanted.
     
  375.  
  376. You may chose to believe whatever you want. FordThink.jpg

    I never "predict".

    "I am not forcing you to accept my concepts. I only request the traders to review the market from time to time keeping in mind my concepts and if found suitable use in the trades or just ignore. Thanks for your opinion."
     
  377.  
  378. In order for price to move, it must move through time. Price at x time is therefore matched against price at y time and the difference calculated. If the price is higher then price has moved higher through time. If price is lower, then price has moved lower through time. If there is no difference in price, then price has moved sideways through time.
     
  379. Pretend you do not have a chart.

    You watch the quote tape.

    Time changes.

    Price remains the same.

    No one would say price moved sideways.

    QED.
     
  380. Your position is indefensible here. Price indeed moves sideways as I have explained to you. Thank you for your time.
     
  381. Indefensible?

    You are free to choose what you believe in. Thank you for being civil in your replies.

    May all your deals be accepted and your fills complete.
     
  382.  
  383.  
  384. As forex market is a virtual, decentralized market that offers virtual currency exchanges and global trading platform it may be a difficult area to be understood by new entrants and for those who don’t have adequate knowledge about this market. I will say that yes trading is difficult but not all in the situations. If you can effectively and timely response the market then trading will be easier. Working with a reliable trading platform can help new traders I guess.
     


  385. WEEKLY WRAP UP
     
  386.  
  387.  
  388. Why is this thread displaying on the main page but not in the forum?
     
  389.  
  390. Maybe someone doesn't want traders seeing my videos.
     
  391.  
  392. The answer to this question is somehow vague. It depends on each specific trader about whom we are talking about. If it is about a novice trader I won’t say trading is simple because even a new trader won’t say trading is simple for him. A new trader may find forex as a difficult market place for years. And if I am talking about a pro trader then yes trading is simple. He knows in and outs of forex market he can simply identify the changes and makes move thereby.
     
  393.  
  394. Simple is not always the same as easy.
     


  395. Consistency Part 2

    For some reason, the video did not process properly the first time.
     
  396.  
  397. I've read a few of your posts in this thread, and watched a few of your youtube videos.

    Thanks!

    I liked your points about keeping things simple, controlled risk, focus, consistency, trading in the direction of higher fractals in agreement.

    It seems that you've been doing this for a long time.
     
  398.  
  399.  
  400. Been trading since before the internet. Back in the paper, pencil and ruler days.
     
  401. Your conclusion about the rat and Yale students is flawed.

    Your conclusion that the rats approach mainly accepting the simple solution and the modest improvement with disregard to improving his/her results is wrong.

    Eventually the students would figure out one of two things.
    1.) There is a pattern and the solution produces the most favorable outcome.
    2.)There is no solution, the food placement seems random with a bias towards the left side.
     
  402. "Wrong"? How so?
     
  403. Your conclusion about the rat and Yale students is flawed.

    Your conclusion that the rats approach mainly accepting the simple solution and the modest improvement with disregard to improving his/her results is wrong.

    Eventually the students would figure out one of two things.
    1.) There is a pattern and the solution produces the most favorable outcome.
    2.)There is no solution, the food placement seems random with a bias towards the left side.
    I just told you . the rats win that example because they don't waste time look for a solution when there is none but that is just a coincidence.

    If you set up the experiment and used a pattern of food distribution of {LLR,LLR...} thwle Yale students would figure this out and find the food every time, while the rat would stay left always and get food 2/3 times.

    So the results would be 66.66%.. to 100% and your faulty logic would conclude that the Yale students approach was superior.

    Tldr: faulty logic bro
     
  404. You're funny :) You say that your logic beats the experiment's results!

    There are other, smarter, interpretations of the results of the experiment, but you can't invalidate them with your logic. You're funny ...
     
  405. I said my logic beats the experiments results? Where do I say that Einstein?

    The results stay the same , the conclusion is what is faulty. I'm not "funny" you just lack reading comprehension.
     
  406.  
  407. Can we debate the issue and not insult each other?

    I am not sure how the conclusion is faulty? First, what do you think the conclusion is?
     
  408. Did you read post #423?
     
  409. TRO,

    The problem with picking one direction is it reduces potential profitable trades by 50%. How do you overcome that?
     
  410. There is no pattern in random events. Your fault is logicy.
     
  411. On each time frame / fratal, at any given moment there is a dominant direction. The price moves in the dominant direction have higher amplitude that in the non dominant direction. When multiple time frames are dominant in the same direction, their effects add up, and the expectancy is higher.
     
  412. The Yale students were not told that the food distribution was random..sorry kid.

    I think op is trolling.

    But the rat experiment assumes 2 things.
    1.) That markets are random.
    2.) That there is a bias

    The rats simple approach leads to optimal results only if food distribution(or the stock market) is random AND there is a bias.

    Neither of these things have been proven in the stock market, so the experiment proves nothing as it it relates to the markets.
     
  413. That's just ppl buying into a trend.
     
  414. Wrong. The words random and biased do not go together by their very definition.
     
  415. This is the kind of garbage all you kids at home should avoid reading.
     
  416. You sure? Technically its pseudo-random.

    Assume I pick random numbers in some sort of way. Then every 25th number I choose a number my self. Its not random but there is no way to decided a pattern and guess my 25th number
     
  417. Nobody else would know the number is not random. There is no way to observe a random biased selection..unless of course you have access to PRICE DRIVERS
     
  418. That kind of garbage keeps your shoes dry ... Don't piss against the wind!
     
  419.  
  420. Your assumption is you would have picked the profitable direction.

    And the problem with picking two directions is it increases potential unprofitable trades.
     
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