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Trading in Luxury

  1. My thread for trading ideas. Trades are mainly options on momentum stocks and ETFs. Trades are either BULL, BEAR, or NEUTRAL and short term, usually not longer than 6 months.

    stocks watch list:
    AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, GS

    ETF WATCH LIST:
    SPY, DIA, QQQQ, IWM

    PGJ, GLD, GDX, SLV

    UUP

    TLT, TBT
     
  2. AA @$14.43, trade idea 12/11/09

    outlook, bull to neutral

    time frame, about 6mo or longer

    strat, DITM longer term (LT) call, build a position, collect premium, reinvest in the trade

    t/a, (later)

    problemos? how will div and e/r affect the trade? e/r 11, jan

    protection, (later) (DITM LT call provides some risk reduction vs long stock position)

    exit, (?)

    bto jan (2011) 10C $530/540
    sto jan (2010) 16c $32/34

    sell jan 11/12.5 p $7/8, $22/33, ($14/136), 10%
     
  3. Trade idea
    SPY
    Date: 12/21/09
    Price: 111.33
    Almanac: End of Yr. favorable
    Strategy: Bull Put Spread
    T/A Support: 109
    Time forTrade: 4 wks
    BTO: JAN 104 PUT @ .47/.49
    STO: JAN 106 PUT @ .67/.70
    Net Credit: .18
    At Risk: 1.92 (2.00-.18)
    Margin Gain: 9%
    Probability:
    % OTM: 4.5%
     
  4. Trade review
    With SPY close at $114.62 today, 1/13/10, looks pretty safe to just let the trade expire on fri 15 and keep all premium.
    It would take a 7% drop to hit the short strike.
    Will add for the future almanac, "end of year AND start of new year favorable"
     
  5. AA trade review
    The vertical jan 11/12.5p expired at $0.

    The way the cal spread turned out kinda confirms my thought that trades on stocks rather than ETFs are too risky. Especially around earnings, which was on 1/11.
    AA traded to a high of $17.60 on mon 1/11, and closed at $15.63 on fri 1/15, OPX.
    Today thu 1/28, close is $12.92, the jan 2011, $10 call is $380/395
    I was looking for a stock under $20, and in some resource related area to build a longer term position in, using a DITM option in place of the stock.

    I think for now I will concentrate on the vertical spreads on ETFs.




     
  6. trade review sat jan 30
    trade did expire at $0, SPY $110.21
    also an error in the "At Risk", 1.82, not 1.92
    Margin Gain 10%
     
  7. TRADE IDEA
    USO
    Date: 2/12/10
    Price: 36.31
    Almanac: favorable
    Strategy: Bull Put Spread
    T/A Support: 34
    T/A: rsi 21, macd 12 26 9
    Near term target: 40
    Time forTrade: 5 wks
    BTO: MAR 30 PUT @ 15/16
    STO: MAR 33 PUT @ 44/47
    Net Credit: .29
    At Risk: 2.71
    Margin Gain: 10%
    Probability: (approx) 90%
    % OTM: 3.3%
    Volatilty: OVX @ 36.04
     
  8. re USO trade idea

    with the long holiday week end and todays rally, a lot of steam has come out of the proposed BPS MAR 30/33 P.

    went from .29 to .17, USO @ $37.70

    if put on now, trade would be a 6% ROM, approx 94% prob, still looks interesting, not as good as last Fri!
     
  9. re USO trade idea

    USO had a good week, Fri 19 eod $39.09.

    Move was too quick to get on board with the BPS MAR 30/33 P.
    Went from .39 on Fri 12, to .07 on Fri 19.
     
  10. trade idea Mon 22

    SPY eod $111.16

    BPS Mar 102/105P @ .25/2.75, 9%rom

    short strike 5% OTM

    t/a support, 106
     
  11. re the above, put on the following:

    SPY @ $110.71

    BPS Mar 100/103P @ .18/2.82, 6%rom

    short strike 7% OTM

    t/a support, 106
     
  12. trade plan for SPY BPS

    trade an index to avoid single stock suprises.

    trade SPY, better understanding of it than the futures options with euro-type expiry.

    look for a support level and place the BPS below it.

    use BB as the main T/A study.

    look for a dime, or a nickel credit on a dollar.

    Spreads $1 or $2 wide, also consider $3 or up to $5. Still evaluating.

    trade front month and enter wk after OPX wk, or any time after.

    plan allows for additional entries of the same spread or a different one.

    plan to exit OPX wk, usually by Tue.

    hold to expiry if far enough OTM at the time.

    loss exit, get out if the spread goes over 2X the original price (original credit).

    no adjustments, solid, simple plan going in, if things go bad, get out and plan next trade.
     
  13. ...finding bottoms....

    http://leavittbrothers.com/blog/?p=2819#more-2819

    ....found an interesting bit of information on market bottoms vs tops on a blog at leavitt brothers....

    ""Before the Open (Mar 18)

    I don’t guess tops. I’ll guess a bottom because those are much easier and tend to happen on a single day, but tops tend to be of the rounded variety and there’s always a few extra surges up to crush the bears who jump the gun with shorts.
    all my indicators are of the “breadth” variety.
    At a bottom, the put/call will spike, the VIX will spike, the # of new lows will spike, the A-D line will plunge, etc etc.
    The opposite is not true. You can’t turn these indicators upside down and treat them the same at a top. The VIX can stay low for a long time…when the # of new highs spikes, the market typically continues up…etc etc.
    Bottoms tend to form in one or two days of hysterical selling while tops tend to roll over.""
    Jason
     
  14. ......review of the BPS Mar 100/103P, from Feb, 24

    ......let spread expire at $0, Fri ,Mar, 19



     
  15. trade idea for April BPS for SPY @$115.87

    estimated support levels at 112, 109, 104

    considering Apr 105/108P, cr .14/2.86

    4.9% rom

    short strike 7% OTM

    Time: 4 wks
     
  16. Nice journal. We trade very similar.

    I track SPY,$VIX..trade the cash options,$DXY(UUP),GLD,TLT and USO.

    Verticals and long only here. 4 - 8 weeks out.

    Keep it up..i`m reading. :)
     
  17. indahook,
    thanks for the reply, i have been having good results trading verticals on the SPY since last Aug. traded mainly long calls on event driven situations before that.


    my outlook is for a strong market through into April, then i will be more cautious.
     
  18. trade review: close on fri 3/26, SPY @ $116.58

    Have not yet opened a credit trade for Apr expiry, SPY moved up too quickly, the spread i was watching got cut in half real fast. Also my t/a is indicating a potential short term sell signal may develop, which should help in getting a better spread. At the down turn, put on the spread when it turns back up. Some times too much thinking gets in the way.

    Down to 3wks to expiry and holidays next week and earnings starting in 2 wks, and dreaded May in 5wks!
     
  19. trade review: fri 4/16, SPY@119.36 (ref earlier posts below)

    did not trade a BPS for April. SPY was moving up too strongly and i was looking for a pull back to get a decent credit. i also had some other pressing issues to take care of and could not get a good study of the market to be confident with a trade selection.
    thus another problem area shows up. when the market starts to move continuously strongly in one direction it is difficult to place a trade with confidence and get a good credit. as a result i missed an entire month of potential income. a similar thing in the opposite direction happened with the Feb options.


    for a May trade, i am thinking i will scope out either a SPY BPS, or a AA (Alcoa) covered call.


    Quote from traderlux:
    03-22-10 09:33 AM
    trade idea for April BPS for SPY @$115.87

    estimated support levels at 112, 109, 104

    considering Apr 105/108P, cr .14/2.86

    4.9% rom

    short strike 7% OTM

    Time: 4 wks

    Quote from traderlux:
    03-28-10 11:55 AM
    trade review: close on fri 3/26, SPY @ $116.58

    Have not yet opened a credit trade for Apr expiry, SPY moved up too quickly, the spread i was watching got cut in half real fast. Also my t/a is indicating a potential short term sell signal may develop, which should help in getting a better spread. At the down turn, put on the spread when it turns back up. Some times too much thinking gets in the way.

    Down to 3wks to expiry and holidays next week and earnings starting in 2 wks, and dreaded May in 5wks!
     
  20. guru augery,

    from Pete at 1option on fri 5-14-2010:

    "Short every failed rally. In the early going, take profits and expect snap back rallies. When those rallies become less frequent, you’ll know that investors are ready to throw in the towel.
    Major support levels will fall easily and that is when you need to hang on to positions.
    You can already start to buy long term (put) options (4-6 months out) that are far out of the money (20% or more). Scale into these trades. Focus on companies that rely on credit (heavy equipment, banks, and consumer stocks). Any company that carries a lot of debt and needs cash flow (airlines) will be in trouble.
    Keep your long term put positions and add to them in coming months. Have shorter term capital available to get in and out of front month put options in the early stages of the decline."
     
  21. deal or no-deal

    here is a trade idea i posted in the stocks forum

    "....5/12/2010, BIDU @78.12, target $100......time, ~6 mo.

    ....wait for pull back

    ....go long a call option, strike just OTM (or just ITM if more conservative), time ~9 mo. (or longer if more conservative)

    ...select a time or loss $ amount to get out if it doesnt move in right direction

    ...select a time or profit $ amount to close if moves in right direction

    ....monitor market and position for changing conditions"

    BIDU has pulled back, and round numbers a Dec 80 call is about $10, if BIDU goes to $100, the call would about double.

    if BIDU continues to fall, could prob get out of call for about $6.

    i will watch this trade, but i dont have a high level of confidence at this time.
     
  22. Guru-augery for Fri May 21, 2010

    SPY ST Model...changed from sell short to cover short

    pfiii...closed QID and BZQ and went to cash

    ww...0/6....0/10
     
  23. trade idea Sat May 22,

    SPY eod (Fri) $109.11

    BPS Jun 100/102P @ .25/1.75, 14% rom

    short strike 6% OTM

    t/a support, 106

    28 dte Jun 18
     
  24. took a loss on a jun intc bps. closed it out today, thu, jun 10, am as the market was moving higher.

    i was thinking i could have lost the max as the sp fell into the short strike, when intc rebounded this am decided to just close it out.

    went against some of my rules when i opened the trade on tue, jun 1, (jun +19/-20p, 12/88)

    will review in more detail later.
     
  25. Trade Idea, SPY BPS

    TUE 100727

    SPY

    111.55

    BTO AUG 103P .47

    STO AUG 104P .55

    CR .08

    DTE 26

    6.7% OTM
     
  26. Trade Idea, SPY Bear Call Spread

    TUE 100727

    SPY

    111.55

    STO AUG 117C .31

    BTO AUG 118C .21

    CR .10

    DTE 26

    4.8% OTM
     
  27. I think you're right, OIL is on resistance and there are a series of indicators that are pointing for a stop in the price movement.

    But the question is...

    Why trade the BEAR CALL on 39/40... You're risking a lot for 10 cents?

    I've been doing these kinds of trades for years, and if i wanted the 10 cents, i would go naked on the 40 Strike, but probably in September options that are trading @ 0.44. Considering that USO has to break resistance levels and stop for a while to free the price from overbought levels and then rise 8.5% to reach the strike, we should get a very juicy premium.

    Nevertheless, if the reason to make the BEAR CALL have to do with margin issues, then i would go for the AUG 38/39.

    Steoli


    <><><><><><><><><><><><>
    Feel that's a buy? Then sell...
    http://tradingthecow.blogspot.com
    <><><><><><><><><><><><>
     
  28. thanks for the reply, some interesting thoughts. i see what you mean about going nkd on the 40 strike. i have been trading spy bps and wanted to start looking at some possible bear call srpds. i thought the risk was not too bad, a dime out of a dollar strike spread. you think that is no buena? i have been doing about 6-8 cents out of a dollar with most of my spy trades.
    on the recent intc trade i did 12 cents and had to buy back at 18 cents.

    i am also looking at selling cash secured puts vs the vertical credits. i think it is easier to recover from a bad trade by either rolling the put or taking assignment and going to a covered call mode.

    some of my verticals i bought back at a loss, when if it had been a cash secured put i could have held on and come out ok. but with the vertical and the possible bigger loss i was "scared" out of the trade and didnt have the strikes available to get a good roll.

    i checked out your blog, looks interesting. i saw where you traded short puts on tbt, so you are thinking rates will rise?
    i am thinking rates will fall.
     
  29. sat 101814, trade idea

    clf 58.49

    sep +47/-48p .11/1.00

    18% otm


    spy 108.31

    sep +99/-100p .11/1.00

    7.7% otm
     
  30. I trade mainly technical. The TBT trade is a contrarian one.

    My view is that the flight-to-safety trade should subside in the months ahead, as it becomes clearer that the domestic (and world) economy is not going into a double-dip but rather into a moderating expansion.

    I could trade the PUTS Naked or trade a Put Ratio Spread. I've done the Naked.

    <><><><><><><><><><><><>
    Feel that's a buy? Then sell...
    http://tradingthecow.blogspot.com
    <><><><><><><><><><><><>
     
  31. ""The Garbage Trade


    We all fear “the big drop.” You know what I’m talking about I’m certain. The big unexpected drop in say the stock market or the bond market or some individual stock or whatever, the one that seems to catch everyone by surprise.""


    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Kaepp...0.html?x=0&.v=1
     
  32. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scuderia_Ferrari

    Scuderia is Italian for a stable reserved to racing horses, and the word is also, like corresponding words in some other languages, used for race car teams. Ferrari refers to Enzo Ferrari, the founder of the company. The prancing horse was the symbol on Italian World War I ace Francesco Baracca's fighter plane, and became the logo of Ferrari after the fallen ace's parents, good friends with Enzo Ferrari, asked him to continue his tradition of sportsmanship, gallantry and boldness.


    general market notes

    SCUDERIA, stable of general market conditions,

    sideways
    choppy
    up
    down
    events
    risk
    ivolatility
    alignment abc
     
  33. Modified SPY long/short indicator

    i have modified the "kevindicator" to make it more intuitive for my own understanding. you can read about the original (thanks to kevin) at link to stockfetcher forums, (you can read without sign up), look for
    "Interesting - VXX:SPY ratio accurately calls recent tops and..."

    http://forums.stockfetcher.com/sfforums/?qrid=1276483044&fid=1002

    one problem i have with the original indicator is that the vxx has a built in negative decay due to rolling futures contracts. i have recently tried using vxz instead, it looks a little cleaner. also, with the ratio being vxx to spy, it was just backwards of how i would look at it.
    so here is my version, using vxz and reversing the ratio. realize the roc reads opposite the original now also. you want to be long spy with a positive roc.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY:VXZ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p41914154310

    note both the original and the modified indicators turned long late aug and remain on a long signal.
     
  34. deal or no deal

    ibm 135.97, jan 135c 3.85 (cnbc, optionsaction) looks interesting

    http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?IBM|C|B2

    sbux,aa,pnra,gmcr, considering puts, about 3mo, just otm

    http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?sbux,aa,pnra,gmcr|C|B2

    modified kga indicator is telling me the general market is still positive

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY:VXZ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p41914154310

    another way of watching it

    http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?spy,vxz|C|B2

    interesting discussion at theoptionclub (y! group) about simple vs complicated option trading
     
  35. both of these were good trades, never came anywhere near the short strikes, that clf is beast, can it keep going?


     
  36. have the following bps that i will close when i can get it back for .01$, or might just hold to opx,

    spy oct +106/-107p, sold it for a dime on wed sep 22
     
  37. article on expiration

    Ron Ianieri

    How to Bank Even Bigger Profits on a Winning Position
    Monday, February 8, 2010

    February might be the shortest month of the year, but for options traders, it's a long month ... this year, anyway.

    As you may know, options expire on the third Friday of every month, which is known as "expiration Friday."

    This February started off on a Monday, which gave you 15 full trading days until your February options were due to expire. Compare this to January, which not only kicked off on a Friday, but it was also a holiday, so traders only had 10 days during the month with their January options!

    Even though you still have another 10 trading days with your February options, it's not too early to think about managing those positions -- whether to bank your profits or cut your losses now (or very soon).

    But, when is the right time to change or exit an option position whose time is nearing its end?

    Next weekend, expiring options "come off the board." In anticipation of this, many investors and traders are closing the books on their February options and getting positioned for March and/or other further-out expiration months, depending on the strategies they are using and the results they want to achieve.

    What happens during expiration week to both winning and losing positions? Today we'll talk about how to manage your positions during this very active time in an options trader's world.

    Closing vs. Exercising

    As an option buyer, whether calls or puts, you have right but not obligation when it comes to how you want to exit your option position.

    This means that, at any time during the life of your option contract, you can choose to either:


    1) Close your position and bank the profits or curtail your losses, or

    2) You can "exercise," which means you tell your broker that you want to buy stock at the option strike (if it's a call) or sell shares at the strike (if it's a put).

    Many people buy options with one of two intentions. They can become long (buy) a stock (if they bought a call) or "put" (sell) their existing long shares (if they bought a put) to someone else at the strike price of their respective options.

    But do remember, if you don't want to wake up on the Monday morning after expiration with a stock position that you might or might not want (that you might or might not be able to afford), you must instruct your broker beforehand that you do not want to exercise your option if it finishes in-the-money.

    Better yet, you can close the option (i.e., "sell to close") directly. That way, as soon as your order is filled, the trade is completely shut down and you have nothing more to do with the option or the underlying stock.

    However, what if that position was a profitable one and you simply ran out of time with your trade?


    The Profits Don't Have to End with Expiration

    When you are in a winning position, and it looks like the position is going to continue in your favor but time is running out on the clock -- via expiration -- you don’t have to say goodbye to your winning streak.

    When you want to continue profiting from a position that's moving in your favor, you have the ability to lock in your profits while exposing yourself to additional upside with a technique we call "rolling."

    In fact, you don't have to wait until expiration week to "roll." If you're sitting on a nice profit in an option that expires six months from now, there's no reason why you should wait six months to close your position and risk losing out on all the gains you've made.

    When you roll, you bank your profits and use your original investment capital to buy another option in a further-out expiration month. If the stock keeps rising, you can "roll up" your calls to a higher strike price, or "roll down" to a lower strike if you're using puts. You can keep the momentum going for as long as your stock is running (or falling).

    In other words, you have an incredible opportunity to lock in your profits and limit your risk, while maintaining the same-size position.

    When my stock-trader friends tell me how much better stocks are than options, I remind them about rolling to protect profits in a winning position and get situated for more (which you can't do with any other security other than options). And I win that argument every time!

    Rolling works for long options. But what about when you are selling options against a long stock (or option) position to generate income?

    Buy it Back or Let it Go?

    When you sell options against your long stocks (or other long options) to collect premium while stocks are standing still or simply moving slowly, you do so to take advantage of time decay (i.e., the erosion of extrinsic value that happens most rapidly as expiration draws near).

    You will collect premium when you initiate the position (i.e., you "sell to open" the option). And, if the position works in your favor, the value of the option will decline.

    I'm always surprised to hear option sellers debating about whether to close the position before expiration (i.e., to "buy to close" the option) or to simply let it "expire worthless" if the position goes as expected and the option value declines.

    First of all, if you are in a covered call position, it is a repetitive strategy that you do month after month. So, it shouldn't be a problem to close out the expiring position before initiating the new one.

    However, if you aren't planning to continue the position (I might ask, why not?), the risk of it NOT expiring worthless is why you close the position. Instead of watching and waiting for the option to expire, it's best to buy it back. Chances are, you've gotten the lion's share of the value out of the option, so it's actually good to buy it back for a small loss.

    Volatility tends to pick up during expiration week, as traders and investors take their old positions "off the board" and get re-positioned in new expiration months and/or strikes. This could actually turn the price of your option in the wrong direction!

    If the stock is trading close to your option strike, you are taking a big risk in leaving your position to the fate of the expiration gods. The front-month, at-the-money strike prices, can change very quickly.

    In other words, the option might be worth 10 cents now, but could shoot up to $1 going into expiration. That is risk you could have -- and should have -- removed from the table. This makes the case for not waiting until 3:59 p.m. Eastern on Friday to call your broker to close out!

    There is one other "biggie" we need to talk about as we approach expiration, and that is assignment.

    Exercise vs. Assignment

    Earlier, we talked about "exercise," which is the buyer's right (but the buyer is not obligated to exercise).

    So, who IS obligated in the buyer/seller relationship? That's right, the individual who sold the option, who is obligated to fulfill the obligation that they got paid to take on.

    With American-style options (most equities), option buyers have the right to exercise their option at any time during the life of the contract; sellers get assigned when a buyer exercises.

    As we saw in our covered-call example, the option seller was selling calls against a long stock position. You don't ever want to be short options unless you have some type of hedge in case the position goes against you.

    The covered call strategy is best used on a stock that is in a slow-grinding uptrend. As the call writer, you can also profit if the stock stays still or even if it moves down a little bit.

    However, if the call moves in-the-money at expiration (i.e., instead of declining in value, it starts gaining intrinsic value, or the amount by which it is in-the-money), you run the risk of having someone who bought that same option want to exercise it, which means that you as the seller would have to sell shares to them at the strike price.

    The good news? You own the shares and can fulfill the obligation. The bad news? You're out of your position!

    Now, don't blame your broker for taking you out of your position. It's actually the Options Clearing Corp. (which guarantees both sides of a trade) that takes the people who are short that option and does a "random lottery" to determine who will fulfill the buyer's obligation.

    To avoid assignment, you can buy back your short option at any time. If you needed another reason to close out your expiring options, remember that if your short option is in-the-money and you haven't yet been assigned, you will be at expiration.

    Expiration: Time, Not Opportunity, Runs Out

    Options expiration sounds a lot scarier than it really is. Try to think of it in a more-positive and -realistic light: Expiration should serve as your reminder to "clean house" on your options account.

    You don't have to watch the markets from moment-to-moment for as long as they're open, but it pays to check in more frequently than you would with your longer-term holdings.

    As an options investor, you're spending less money to control the same-sized position in a stock. Plus, you can position yourself to capture gains much-more-quickly than the traditional stock investor might ever be able to see.

    You don't want to miss out on the opportunity to bank profits while you have them, to adjust losing positions while there's still something left to work with, and get re-positioned for even-better returns in the weeks and months to come.

    When you think "expiration," think "opportunities" to make more money!
     
  38. Bernie Schaeffer
    Schaeffers
    Research.com

    http://www.investorsobserver.com/contributor1_A153.asp

    Some of the more popular names on which weekly options are available include Apple Inc. (AAPL), Google, Inc. (GOOG), the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ), and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) (the list of available weekly options can change from week to week and is available at www.cboe.com/weeklys). All weekly options begin trading on the Thursday prior to expiration week and expire on the following Friday.

    From the perspective of the option buyer, weekly options are attractive for the same reasons that attract traders during the traditional monthly expiration week. You achieve increased leverage due to the low dollar time premiums of near-expiration options, and short-term directional traders can better match the life of their option plays with the length of their forecast period. And for most underlying securities, options during expiration week are at their most liquid and slippage costs tend to be minimized.

    I'd suggest the following additional points for you to ponder when buying options during expiration week (or on the Thursday or Friday prior to expiration).

    You MUST be using an indicator set that drives trades based on a price forecast of seven trading days or less. It is simply foolish to trade weekly options based on a longer-term view on the underlying security, simply because premium levels are low. Longer-term views are keyed to playing the signal and ignoring the noise, while in weekly trading you are in fact trading the noise.
    If your indicator set does not encompass and address the issue of how stocks trade relative to option strike prices, and the potential for a preponderance of call or put open interest at various strikes to have a major influence on stock price behavior as expiration approaches, you are at a serious disadvantage.
    If you don't allow for the enhanced possibility in many cases of an underlying being "pinned" to a particular option strike on expiration day, you will experience far too many total losses.
    If trading weekly options is in fact about trading the noise, then you should seriously consider making pure volatility bets in the form of straddles (long a call and a put at the same strike). The single biggest rap against buying straddles is the old "you are paying double premium and this crimps profit potential" argument. But with the very modest dollar premiums as expiration approaches, straddle buyers can easily achieve triple-digit profits in many instances.
    It's not just about the low dollar premiums, which are a natural consequence of a small and rapidly decreasing amount of time until expiration. Implied volatilities on many of the weekly options are often lower than those of the next "regular" expiration – you see this phenomenon with great regularity, for example, in the AAPL and QQQQ weeklies.
    Consider trading the Weeklys on non-equity ETFs such as TLT and GLD, especially for volatility plays, as their implied volatilities are much lower than those for equities, and movement potential (particularly over the weekend) is surprisingly robust.
    Speaking of weekend plays, buying a weekly straddle on that first Friday afternoon and holding till the early part of expiration week is often a very attractive strategy for capturing excess volatility at a very modest cost.
    Recognize and accept the reality of buying option premium during expiration week and incorporate this into your trading approach. If you're playing direction, recognize that there is often not going to be time for you to recover from even a modest move against you. And accept the fact that some stocks are going to trade on expiration day in a shockingly narrow range above and below a strike at which they will be "pinned" by the close of trading. This is all part of the expiration week game, as is some huge profit potential and, as many traders are discovering with the growth of the weekly options, a lot of fun.
     
  39. I want to check out put credit spreads with weekly options. Just picked out four to look at and follow for a week. Priced fri Nov, 29, expiring Dec, 3, each with $1000 margin.


    BAC, $11.12, 10/11p, $120

    F, $16.10, 15/16p, $190

    SLV, $26.13, 25/26p, $290

    LVS, $50.06, 49/50P, $420
     
  40. I wanted to check out put credit spreads using the weeklys. To begin I just wanted to see what kind of credits could be hauled in, what kind of risks would be involved, and how they would progress thru the week.
    I priced these near the EOD Fri Nov 26, and they are for Dec 3, expiry and $1000 margin each is required.

    update for EOD Mon 29, stock price, spread value and "net"
    BAC, $11.12, 10/11p, $120.......eod Mon 29, $11.31, $60, $60

    F, $16.10, 15/16p, $190............eod Mon 29, $16.06, $180, $10

    SLV, $26.13, 25/26p, $290.......eod Mon 29, $26.55, $160, $130

    LVS, $50.06, 49/50P, $420......eod Mon 29, $50.49, $340, $80

    when checking during the day, the F and the LVS trades did show a loss. (I know these are risky trades)
     
  41. I wanted to check out put credit spreads using the weeklys. To begin I just wanted to see what kind of credits could be hauled in, what kind of risks would be involved, and how they would progress thru the week.
    I priced these near the EOD Fri Nov 26, and they are for Dec 3, expiry and $1000 margin each is required.

    update for EOD Tue 30, stock price, spread value and "net"
    BAC, $11.12, 10/11p, $120.......eod Mon 29, $11.31, $40, $80 (corrected eod Mon)
    .........................................eod Tue 30, $10.95, $190, ($70) ouch, the wikki-licker leaked on the BAC parade!

    F, $16.10, 15/16p, $190............eod Mon 29, $16.06, $180, $10
    ..................................................eod Tue 30, $15.95, $220, ($30)

    SLV, $26.13, 25/26p, $290.......eod Mon 29, $26.55, $160, $130
    ...................................................eodTue 30, $27.44, $40, $250

    LVS, $50.06, 49/50P, $420......eod Mon 29, $50.49, $340, $80
    .................................................eodTue30, $50.08, $380, $40
     
  42. I wanted to check out put credit spreads using the weeklys. To begin I just wanted to see what kind of credits could be hauled in, what kind of risks would be involved, and how they would progress thru the week.
    I priced these near the EOD Fri Nov 26, and they are for Dec 3, expiry and $1000 margin each is required.

    update for EOD Wed Dec 1, stock price, spread value and "net"
    BAC, $11.12, 10/11p, $120.......eod Mon 29, $11.31, $40, $80 (corrected eod Mon)
    .........................................eod Tue 30, $10.95, $190, ($70) ouch, the wikki-licker leaked on the BAC parade!
    .....................................eod Wed Dec 1, $11.29, $30, $90

    F, $16.10, 15/16p, $190............eod Mon 29, $16.06, $180, $10
    ..................................................eod Tue 30, $15.95, $220, ($30)
    .....................................eod Wed Dec 1, $16.46, $40, $150

    SLV, $26.13, 25/26p, $290.......eod Mon 29, $26.55, $160, $130
    ...................................................eodTue 30, $27.44, $40, $250
    ....................................................eod Wed Dec 1, $27.81, $10, $280

    LVS, $50.06, 49/50P, $420......eod Mon 29, $50.49, $340, $80
    .................................................eodTue30, $50.08, $380, $40
    ..................................................eod Wed Dec 1, $51.34, $150, $270

    ok, so if we would have closed these out today we would have collected $790 in 4 days using $4000 in margin.
     
  43. In follow-up to the 4 weekly option credit spreads we were following (BAC, F, SLV, LVS), one point to take away is to close the spreads after some percentage of profit is hit and not to plan on riding them to $0 expiry.

    I am thinking ball park might even be 50%. If they start to go in the profit direction dont worry about getting out too early and/or leaving something on the table. These are risky trades and if a profit shows up, take it and move on.

    I think we also want to plan on being out by Wed, as we did yesterday, to clear the deck and free up margin for trades that could be considered on Thu for the next weekly option cycle.

    Risk and how we handle the trades moving against us is still an unknown as the trades were all to the good when closed yesterday. What happens when they go bad and what kind of action we can take still needs to be proven. Although some of the trades moved into the red and then turned back around during the time they were on.

    Today LVS got hit with the China item, did we even know it was a pending event? If the trade was still on it would be showing a $110 loss. We would need to either close out at the loss, or hold over to tomorrow, Fri, last option trading day, and see if it turns around.

    I want to keep it simple.
     
  44. looking at a SPY trade since we are in a favorable time of the year. but we have had a pretty good run lately and my spy-dicator is turning down so i will watch it and see if it continues down or turns around.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY:VXZ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p41914154310

    Trade idea
    SPY
    Date: 12/23/10
    Price: 125.60
    Almanac: End of Yr. favorable
    Strategy: Bull Put Spread
    T/A Support: 119???
    Time forTrade: 4 wks
    BTO: JAN 119 PUT @ .50/.51
    STO: JAN 120 PUT @ .60/.62
    Net Credit: .09
    At Risk: 0.91 (1.00-.09)
    Margin Gain: 10%
    Probability:
    % OTM: 4.5%
     
  45. The jan 119/120p spread is still going for about a dime on a dollar, but the spy-dicator is still pointing down.
    I am waiting.
     
  46. risk reversals....


    Risk reversal is an options trading strategy that aims to put on a free options position, which is one where you neither pay nor receive upfront payment (credit), for the purpose of leveraged speculation or stock hedging.

    Risk reversal is a little known strategy in the stock options trading scene but a pretty common term in the forex options trading scene and the commodities options trading scene for its hedging power, hence the name "Risk Reversal". Even though the name makes the strategy sound very sophisticated, it really is a very simple options strategy with a very simple underlying logic.



    http://www.optiontradingpedia.com/risk_reversal.htm
     
  47. from cnbc options action Fri. 7, JPM ($43.64) with earnings coming on Fri.14,
    consider going long weekly calls at 43 strike ($1.21/1.25), or 44strike ($.66/.69)
     
  48. GOOG IC results using a "weekly" option, jan555/-565p and -670/680c (E/R scheduled for thu, jan 20)

    trade opened on thu jan 13, with $1.35 cr and closed thu jan20 (puts closed in am and calls closed in pm) with a remaining cr of $0.10. the goal was to keep $1.20.

    the call side of the trade was the problem. it was difficult to get out and save some credit. the trade exit was watched all day.

    reinforces my view to stay away from these short term credit spreads, and watch out for earnings releases.

    did not want to hold over E/R. now looks like it might have been safe to hold over.
     
  49. QQQQ trade with weekly options.

    Here is a trade idea that I that got from either ET or Y!, can't remember.
    The straddle part came from an idea in a Bernie promo.


    Buy calls after several down days that are opposite to trend.

    Buy puts after several up days that are opposite to trend.

    Trend based on 1 week chart.

    Trade weekly options with strke ATM, or 1 strike OTM.

    Open trade on thu, fri, mon, or tue.

    Close trade after several days.

    Cost of option should be about $0.33 to $0.50

    Trade could also be placed as a straddle.

    Buy option in direction of expected move.

    Buy as a hedge, cheaper option in opposite direction.
     
  50. Good Journal.
     

  51. ...thank you....
     
  52. GLD trade from 02/18/2011 at

    http://blog.wastingassets.net/

    Sell 20 vertical put spread in the March GLD contracts, selling the 135’s and buying the 134’s for a credit of 0.45
     
  53. GLD trade 2/22/2011 from

    http://blog.wastingassets.net/

    sell 20 vertical call spread in the Mar GLD contracts, day order, selling the 141’s and buying the 142’s for a credit of 0.20 or better.

    The GLD vertical call spread was filled for a credit of 0.20.
     
  54. Olds Rocket

    This Day in Wall Street History: 2004: The end of the road for Oldsmobile

    On this day in 2004, the last Oldsmobile comes off the assembly line at the Lansing Car Assembly plant in Michigan, signaling the end of the 106-year-old automotive brand, America's oldest. Factory workers signed the last Oldsmobile, an Alero sedan, before the vehicle was moved to Lansing's R.E. Olds Transportation Museum, where it went on display. The last 500 Aleros ever manufactured featured "Final 500" emblems and were painted dark metallic cherry red.

    In 1897, Ransom E. Olds (1864-1950), an Ohio-born engine maker, founded the Olds Motor Vehicle Company in Lansing. In 1901, the company, then known as Olds Motor Works, debuted the Curved Dash Oldsmobile, a gas-powered, open-carriage vehicle named for its curved front footboard. More than 400 of these vehicles were sold during the first year, at a price of $650 each (around $17,000 in today's dollars). In subsequent years, sales reached into the thousands. Olds' invention inspired a 1905 song, "In My Merry Oldsmobile," whose chorus includes the lines: "Come away with me, Lucille/In my merry Oldsmobile/Down the road of life we'll fly/Automobubbling, you and I." However, by 1904, clashes between Olds and his investors caused him to sell the bulk of his stock and leave the company. He soon went on to found the REO (based on his initials) Motor Car Company, which built cars until 1936 and produced trucks until 1975.

    In 1908, Oldsmobile was the second brand, after Buick, to become part of the newly established General Motors (GM). Oldsmobile became a top brand for GM and pioneered such features as chrome-plating in 1926 and, in 1940, the first fully automatic transmission for a mass-market vehicle. Oldsmobile concentrated on cars for middle-income consumers and from the mid-1970s to the early 1980s, the Oldsmobile Cutlass was America's best-selling auto. However, in the decades that followed, sales began to decline, prompting GM to announce in 2000 that it would discontinue the Oldsmobile line with the 2004 models. When the last Oldsmobile rolled off the assembly line in April 2004, more than 35 million Oldsmobiles had been built during the brand's lifetime. Along with Daimler and Peugeot, Oldsmobile was among the world's oldest auto brands.

    Source: www.history.com
     
  55. Buying Straddles with Weekly Options (terrystips 7/5/2011)
    For the past 7 days, SPY had fluctuated more than $1.00 every day. One of the portfolios that we carry out at Terry's Tips involves placing calendar spreads near the close on Thursday (buying options with 8 days of remaining life and selling options that will expire the next day). The risk profile graph for these spreads shows that a profit will be made if SPY fluctuates by less than a dollar in either direction on Friday (which it has done historically most of the time).
    However, with 7 consecutive days of greater-than-$1.00 fluctuations, it did not seem like a prudent bet to place calendar spreads on Thursday (especially since SPY tends to be more volatile on Fridays when the Weekly options expire than it is on the other days).
    Instead of buying calendar spreads, we bought SPY 132 puts and calls which would expire on Friday, paying $97 for each pair (with commissions, $99.50 each). At the time, SPY was trading right at $132.
    This is called buying a straddle. If at any point on Friday, SPY changed in value by more than $1.00 in either direction, we could sell those options at a profit. (At any price above $133, the calls could be sold for more than we paid for the straddle, and at any price below $131, the puts could be sold for more than we paid for the straddle.)
    SPY managed to change $2.00, beating the $1.00 threshold for the 8th consecutive day. Subscribers who held their straddles until near the close were able to double their money on Friday (admittedly, most of us pulled the trigger earlier than that, but I did manage to keep a few spreads until the end in my personal account).
    Straddle buyers like volatility as much as we don't like it in our other portfolios. What they like best is a whip-saw market where the market moves sharply higher (and they sell their calls) and then down (when they unload their puts). There are many ways to profit with options. Buying straddles when option prices are low and volatility is high is one very good way to make extraordinary gains.
    The downside to buying straddles is that if the market doesn't fluctuate much, you could lose every penny of your investment. This makes it a much riskier investment than the other option strategies we recommend at Terry's Tips. However, straddle-buying can be quite profitable if the current market patterns persist.
     
  56. mon 8/01/2011

    spy @$128.47

    bps, weekly expire fri 8/05, 123/124p, $.14 (16%), 3.5% cush
     
  57. tue 8/02/2011

    closed out tue am for $.10, dodged that bullet....





     
  58. 2011, NOV, 25, FRI

    SDS eod $23.19

    BTO DEC 24C $1.10

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SDS111217C00024000

    swing trade using calls on SSO and SDS, signals are from simple trend and momentum indicators.

    the entry signal for SDS is from NOV, 16, so i am about a week late getting in, butt i wanted to get it started.

    when the trigger occurs, i plan to close the SDS call and open a SSO call.
     
  59. ....here is a tactic i am looking at, it is a SPY/TLT swing trade with a longer term time frame. (got the idea from a guy at stockcharts)

    you can be into one side or the other for weeks or months at a time....

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY:TLT&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p06939875656

    when the longer term ma is above the shorter, you are long SPY, and when the longer term ma is below the shorter, you go long TLT.

    as of now the trade is in TLT, butt possibly getting close to a signal change.

    ....i also have a shorter term signal that looks close to a change also...

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SPY:TLT|D
     
  60. I think you meant when the SHORTER MA is above the LONGER you go LONG SPY ad when the LONGER MA is above the SHORTER you go long TLT...
     
  61. ....you are correct....thanks for looking, and thinking about it.....the trade is still in TLT.....longer ma still above the shorter, as it has been since about mid May...(on May 16, SPY was $133 and TLT was $93, today they are both at about $121)....



     
  62. ..trade from Jan 20, from a blog, WA, i have mentioned previously..

    http://blog.wastingassets dot net/

    iron condor in the Feb SPY contracts, buying the 126 and selling the 127 puts, selling the 136 and buying the 137 calls for a credit.... Trading Execution - The Feb "SPY" iron condor was filled for a credit of 0.35.

    SPY closed at $131.95 on Fri Jan 20

    (...note, if he hasnt yet corrected it, he has a typo in the trading execution , it is SPY, not GLD...)
     
  63. review the bull put spread (BuPS) trade plan outline from earlier:

    trade plan for SPY BuPS

    trade an index to avoid single stock suprises.

    trade SPY, better understanding of it than the futures options contracts with euro-type expiry.

    look for a support level and place the BuPS below it.

    use BB and rsi as the main T/A study.

    look for a dime, or a nickel credit on a dollar.

    Spreads $1 or $2 wide, also consider $3 or up to $5. Still evaluating.

    trade front month and enter wk after OPX wk, or any time after.

    plan allows for additional entries of the same spread or a different one.

    plan to exit OPX wk, usually by Tue.

    hold to expiry if far enough OTM at the time.

    loss exit, get out if the spread goes over 2X the original price (original credit).

    no adjustments, just basic, simple plan going in, if things go bad, get out and plan next trade.
     
  64. 2012, mar 29, RIMM $13.63, e/r today amc

    long strangle. wkly fri 30,12p/15c, $51/contract
     
  65. from friday apr 13, AAPL $605.48

    BuCS
    apr 21, 610/615c, $2.12 db
     
  66. have you been keeping any kind of records for the trades you've posted on here?
     
  67. hoop121,
    the only trades i did enough of to get a record were the earlier monthly SPY bull put credit spreads i did for about a year. some of them were around 10% return on risk.. but then the returns started to fall way off and i had to find out what market volatility was all about.
     

  68. ...trade was down about 25% yesterday, now about 10% to the good...
     
  69. ...closed for $3.00, +42%....
     
  70. fslr, $17.22

    jun 17/20p, $1.95, db
     
  71. interesting trade idea from another thread.....

    danshirley

    Registered: Jul 2004
    Posts: 189

    05-11-12 02:56 PM

    FAZ:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=6m&...&q=l&c=JPM&ql=1

    With FAZ at 23.48

    Buy the Oct 15 call and sell the Oct 20 call for a net debit of 3.40

    FAZ...............P/L.......P/L%
    15.00..........(340)....(100%)
    18.40.............0...........0%
    20.00.............160.......47%
    25..................160.......47%

    (just thinking)
     
  72. i did some reverse engineering of a promo-teaser email i got awhile back, few details were given but i managed to figure out the following:
    the stock was AAPL and the trade was put on in mar at a pps of about $600.

    the position was a 450/480 bull call debit spread using the apr options, bto apr 450 call, and sto apr 480 call, for a $27 debit.

    the position was about 20% ITM.

    at apr opx the trade was closed for its max value of $30, AAPL @ about $573, for a return of 11% for the month.

    going forward i looked at the next months spread,
    on mon apr 23, (pps@ $571) an AAPL may 470/500 bull call debit spread was going for about $25, return about 20% if AAPL stays above $500 going into opx. (about 12% ITM)

    AAPL did get down to about $530 at opx.
     
  73. i was on a webinar from john ondercin. it was informative. here are a few hi-lites, as i interpreted them.


    diversify your trades by sector, strategy, and time.

    get good at three option strategies, and only three. any more takes away from your focus.

    start with one strat until you get it down cold and then move to the next.

    he recommends these three strats,
    collars
    vertical credit spreads
    calendar spreads

    he also likes LEAPS for straight puts or calls

    straddles? NO, hard to beat the vig you fight going in and out.

    debit spreads? NO, time decay works against you.
     
  74. i was on a webinar with aj brown talking about trading long straddles. here are some hi-lites as i interpreted them.

    pattern recognition and pattern utilization are key, in other words know the charts and look for repeating patterns and how best to trade them.

    option price changes follow three important aspects

    price movement of underlying
    volatility changes
    movement of time

    straddle trading uses the following considerations

    bell curve of time value, centered at the ATM strike

    time decay curve, greater decay rate at end of option life

    implied volatility vs historical

    movement of implied vol in response to upcoming events

    reversion to mean of implied vol

    look for upcoming events

    enter the straddlle when things are quiet

    look for IV at or below historical and/or below mean

    use ATM puts and calls, just out in time

    target gains at 10-20% for exit prior to event

    not all will be winners
     
  75. the spy-dicator doesnt normally look like this with the price so far below the option volatility weighted value....

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY:VXZ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p41914154310



     
  76. in addition to SPY, i am also looking at SSO and SDS as trade u/l, i think the lower cost per share offers some flexibilty in trade selection....



     
  77. test, trying to post a clean post....
     
  78. ok, last week I traded some weekly aug4 options on FCX, Freeport....general review as follows, I have done some rounding to make this cleaner for me to review...

    on tue 8/19 prior to fed minutes release on wed 8/20 I was looking to buy either a long straddle or strangle or long calls or puts thinking the event would cause a price move in FCX that would cause OTM options to go ITM and increase in price, knowing that my entire trade dollars would be at risk of going to $0.

    I wanted my trade size to be about $100. tue I saw OTM call volume building much more than put volume so I decided to go with just long calls, I BTO 3 sets of calls, 2 of 36.50 at .20 and .15, and 1 of strike 37 at .05.
    I got 10 contracts of each, trade sizes were $200, $150, and $50, total $400, more than I wanted to do but the way the call ladder was building I felt somebody smarter than me had a plan, so I followed along.

    on wed 8/20 am there was a up move in FCX and I closed out all positions at the following corresponding amounts $450, $300, $150, total $900, (somebody smarter did know what they were doing).
    I had 6 comm. at about $15ea, about $90.

    on thu 8/21 prior to Jackson hole speeches on fri 8/22 I was looking to do similar trades.
    I went with a long straddle BTO at strike 36.50 @.36, 3 contacts for $108 trade size and BTO 36.50 puts @.09, 10 contracts at $90 trade size. total trade size $198 for the straddle and the extra puts.

    on fri 8/22 am FCX moved down and I STC 3 puts at $75 and 10 at $250, leaving 3 calls open to see what might happen, which turned out to be nothing much and eventually closed them for $30.

    so the straddle returned $75 + $30, $105, compared to $108 to open it, so the increase in the 3 puts was not enough to overcome the loss on the 3 calls.

    the 10 puts returned $250, opened at $90, net $160.

    to open and close the straddle 3 comm. for $15ea, $45 total, to open and close the puts 2 comm. for $30 total.
     
  79. when trading weekly options and buying calls, puts, straddles or strangles,

    stock price needs to move thru an option strike price,

    the option going from OTM or ATM to ITM, should increase in value,

    latter in the week, options cheaper, option price move can be greater, if stock moves,

    if you have directional bias, buy calls or puts,

    no bias and stock is at a strike price, buy strangle at that strike,

    (can also buy a straddle when stock is at a strike)

    no bias and stock is between strikes, buy straddle at those strikes,

    the idea with a strangle or straddle is that the gain on one option covers loss on other,

    realize you can lose the entire amount of the trade,

    you either have to watch market to take exits, or set contingent orders
     
  80. when doing option trades I keep track of the following main items,

    what strategy is being used, spread, long or short call or put, etc
    what underlying is being used
    what is the trade plan, ie, buy 3 mo. delta 20 call on HPQ, expect 3% rise in stock, 80% gain in option
    what is my edge, have I used this strat or underly before? do I have a good entry based on T/A?,
    what is the trade management, watch for chance for profit taking, close if option drops 30%
    what was the result, win, lose, or learn
     
  81. I am reposting this with correction, see post 93

    ....here is a tactic i am looking at, it is a SPY/TLT swing trade with a longer term time frame. (got the idea from a guy at stockcharts)

    you can be into one side or the other for weeks or months at a time....

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY:TLT&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p06939875656
    when the longer term ma is above the shorter, you are long TLT, and when the longer term ma is below the shorter, you go long SPY.



    ....i also have a shorter term signal that looks close to a change also...

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SPY:TLT|D
     

  82. Do you also include volatility into one of the drivers of options ?
    I think that option prices changes depending on volatility, which can be a good hedge to real stocks to not lose as much if things go south on you.
     
  83. yes, watching volatility is important, and it is misunderstood by a lot of traders.
     
  84. trade plan for SPY BPS

    trade an index to avoid single stock suprises.

    trade SPY, better understanding of it than the futures options with euro-type expiry.

    look for a support level and place the BPS below it.

    use BB as the main T/A study.

    look for a dime, or a nickel credit on a dollar.

    Spreads $1 or $2 wide, also consider $3 or up to $5. Still evaluating.

    trade front month and enter wk after OPX wk, or any time after.

    plan allows for additional entries of the same spread or a different one.

    plan to exit OPX wk, usually by Tue.

    hold to expiry if far enough OTM at the time.

    loss exit, get out if the spread goes over 2X the original price (original credit).

    no adjustments, simple plan going in, if things go bad, get out and plan next trade.
     
  85. on mon 3/7 paper trade for a SPY wkly diagonal spread, SPY @ $200.63
    long mar 18 203 call
    short mar 11 201 call
    credit$.15

    on thu 3/10 I could have closed the short leg for a profit and let the long ride, but I did not and now it looks like we will have a loss on this trade
     
  86. on thu 3/10 after market closed I did a limit order for a spread trade, fri 3/11 morning the market gapped up and I was filled, could have got a better fill if I would have traded live.
    don't think I will do this any more.
     
  87. fri 3/11 closed out the 203/201 call spread from mon 3/7 for a $.15 Db, so trade netted to a wash.
    thu 3/10 I could have closed at a further $.26 Cr, or closed the short for an $.18 Db and today sold the long for$1.00, net an additional $.82
     
  88. on fri 3/11 SPY put wkly diagonal trade (paper) based on plan I got from another trader
    SPY @ $202.76
    bto mar 24 207 put
    sto mar 18 204 put
    $2.70 Db

    trade must be closed out on expiration of short leg
     
  89. the trade was closed fri 3/18 at about a wash
     
  90. thu 3/24 SPY @ $203.11
    bto apr/8 207 put
    sto apr/1 204 put
    $2.27 Db
    must be closed by short leg expiry apr 1
     
  91. wed 3/30, SPY at 206.10, spread is showing a loss of about 75%
     
  92. thu 3/31 trade is down about 22%, must close tomorrow, fri 4/1

    made a mistake yesterday, trade was down 25%, not 75%
     
  93. 4/1 fri closed trade at about 50% loss
    so far 2 break evens and one 50%
     
  94. fri 4/1 SPY @ $206.92
    bto apr/15 211 put
    sto apr/8 208 put
    $2.64 Db
    must be closed by short leg expiry apr 8
    goal is to buy back at $3.00
     
  95. mon 4/4 the trade was showing a 8% gain

    today tue 4/5 closed the trade at $3.00, about a 14% gain
     
  96. sim trade put on fri 4/29
    SPY @ $206.30
    bto may/13 210 put
    sto may/6 207 put
    $2.34 Db
     
  97. wed 5/4 spy @ 204.91
    closed trade at 2.90, .56 gain, 24% return
     
  98. summary 5 trades, 2 break evens, 1@ 50% loss, 1@ 14% gain, 1@24% gain

    have a better understanding of this trade now and that 50% loss could have been avoided
     
  99. VXX thu/fri trade is based on observation that VIX is likely to make a low on thu and then move higher on fri.
    I have been trading this with good results. A variation I have found is to watch for an entry on wed, I did that trade this week and got out this morning.

    i have been doing a 3 lot with VXX and for last three weeks results are gains of $150, $198, and $375, this week i did the wed/thu variation.
     
  100. the VXX thu/fri trade details from actual and some back tested trades

    trade size 3 lot about $4500
    time in trade, exit same day or next day
    risk, estimated at 10%
    gain, about 5%
    win rate, about 70%
    trade entry use 2 min chart looking for a move lower
    trade exit use 2 min chart looking for a move higher
     
  101. FCX, have traded often, on thu BTO wkly 11 call .18, closed this am for .38
    10 lot for $200 gain
     
  102. for the week ending 5/27 I did not do a vxx trade, didn't like the action, but I did mark a wed variation trade for reference with the 3 lot trade size it gained $78, enter wed am at 13.98, exit wed pm at 14.24.



    for the week ending 6/3 I did a thu pm entry and fri am exit, the 3 lot trade gained $150, in 13.11, out 13.61.



    VXX thu/fri trade is based on observation that VIX is likely to make a low on thu and then move higher on fri.
    I have been trading this with good results. A variation I have found is to watch for an entry on wed.
    i have been doing a 3 lot with VXX and for last five weeks results are gains of $150, $198, $375, $78 (trade marked, not taken), $150
     
  103. svxy trade entry rules
    vix level below 20-25
    svxy/vix ratio 2.5 to 4.5
    svxy price under 50 (exit before/at 60)

    7/14 closed svxy at 57.75, entry 6/30 at 45.43
    net $1232, 27%, in trade for 2 weeks

    merrill lynch research team says" you want to own volatility in an election year
    and vix spikes above 24 on average in the month ahead of (october) presidential elections
     
  104. GPS $24.34, one to watch for its e/r on 8/18

    option volume shows 2250 against 25 oi for the 8/19 $23.50 put @ $.70

    option pit has bought a sep put strike 24 @ $1.23 (check youtube)
     
  105. marked a VXX wed variation trade on 7/20

    entry wed $11.12, exit thu $11.55

    3 lot, $3336, return $129, 4% return
     
  106. thu/fri VXX trades since May 5, 12 trades, 11 winners, 1 loser

    5 of the 12 were wed variation, in wed, out thu, all 5 winners

    with 3 lot trade size, winners ranged from $66 to $888, one loser was $60

    3 lot trade size ranged from $3336 to $4611
     
  107. made trades on fri 8/5,
    AAPL sold 8/26 110 call .78, stock cost basis $110.....ok with getting called out

    GDX sold 8/26 29 put .67....ok to roll and/or add more capital
     
  108. repost with corrections.....

    when trading weekly options and buying calls, puts, straddles or strangles,

    stock price needs to move thru an option strike price,

    the option going from OTM or ATM to ITM, should increase in value,

    latter in the week, options cheaper, option price move can be greater, if stock moves,

    if you have directional bias, buy calls or puts,

    no bias and stock is at a strike price, buy straddle at that strike,

    (can also buy a strangle when stock is at a strike)

    no bias and stock is between strikes, buy strangle at those strikes,

    the idea with a strangle or straddle is that the gain on one option covers loss on other,

    realize you can lose the entire amount of the trade,

    you either have to watch market to take exits, or set contingent orders

    #135 Sep 2, 2014
     
  109. for week ending fri oct 28, 2016

    TLT, $130.50, nov 18 130.5 call @ $1.55 (from optionpit trade of the week)

    watching AMZN, $776.32, for a BuCS, dec 800/820c, about $6 Db, or a BuPS

    holding GDX, $23.81, entry $23.10, oct 20, chart looks ugly
     
  110. http://www.manjw.com/elite-performers-mindset/#more-1027


    The Buddha said, “With your thoughts you create your world, the wise person controls their thoughts.” So be careful what you think. Where your thinking goes, your energy flows. Make sure your thinking supports the outcomes you desire. Make this a daily practice and activate the wise person within you.

    What’s Playing At Your Cinema?
    refer to past successes, no matter how small they may be. Go on, be the star and load a great movie!
     
  111. quick follow up on some short term option trades I was watching, no positions taken....

    MON, calls, loser
    COF, puts, loser
    HD, calls, loser
    DIA, calls, still open
     
  112. To improve at anything, begin with determination, write out the orders, then take action, and keep going with urgency, get serious, look to victory.

    Have a championship approach, see that trophy.
     
  113. a hedge idea I got from another trader that I want to take a look at,

    sell 10 SPY shorts puts, take a little bit of that credit
    and buy a longer out long put
    maybe 1 or 2 long puts from that credit

    when you get a down turn it will give you the time to adjust and make a little profit
     
  114. looking at some cyber security etfs and interesting stocks

    HACK, etf
    HAKK, 2X+ etf
    HAKD, 2X- etf

    stocks CHKP, CYBR, FEYE, FTNT, PANW, PFPT, SYMC

    there are a lot more players in this field, but these seemed like some to start looking for opportunities.







    -
     
  115. hmmmm, how much is the margin going to be on 10 naked Puts?

    What happens in an unexpected occurrence happens in middle of the night and market drops 5% or more, what if market plunges and you can't get out?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_S&P_500_Index

    I have learned "never say never".
     
  116. I made a quick visualization of the largest % moves using only 2008-2009 data. I sure would like to see the PnL from Nitro's model during this period as he was very prolific.

    upload_2016-12-31_0-45-34.png
     
  117. Here is the two busiest months intra-day point swings as a % of the closing price.
    upload_2016-12-31_1-10-0.png
     
  118. stocks I am considering for cash secured puts,

    AAPL, BAC, CSCO, MSFT, INTC, JPM, PM,

    sold strike just OTM, time about one month,
    prefer to close when get about 50% of premium,
    prefer to roll rather than be assigned,
    if take assignment, do CC and/or collect dividend
     
  119. marked a VXX wed variation trade on 1/12

    entry wed $21.42, exit thu $22.43

    2 lot, $4284, return $202, 4.7% return
     
  120. VXX thu/fri trade on 1/12

    entry thu $21.42, exit fri $21.44

    2 lot, $4284, wash
     
  121. some general thoughts on trading VXX and SVXY,

    the main strategy for VXX, buy puts,

    add puts on spikes,

    another plan, wait for spikes and then buy puts,

    buy calls on SVXY
     
  122. some general thoughts on using credit spreads verses debit spreads,

    a credit spread may give more room to be wrong in your thinking on the directional move of the underlying,

    the debit spread, if the directional plan holds true, may give a greater percent return over the credit spread, it is less forgiving if direction choice is wrong
     
  123. the main doomers are all calling for horrific crashes this year, bonner, casey, dent, edleson, schiff, stansberry, is this their year?
     
  124. using XIV to look for VIX pops...from www.schaeffersresearch.com

    "overextended" as occasions where XIV (a) closes 10% or more above its 20-day simple moving average; and (b) has a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 70 or greater
     
  125. from Philip Davis at seeking alpha...

    buying 500 shares of ABX TODAY, for $17.79 ($8,895) and selling five 2019 $15 calls for $5.70 ($2,850) and $15 puts for $2.40 ($1,200).
    Your net entry is $9.69 ($4,875) and, on January 18th, 2019, (720 days), you will either be called away at $15 with a $5.31 profit (54.7%) if the stock is above $15 or, if ABX is below $15, you will be assigned another 500 shares at $15 ($7,500) leaving you with 1,000 shares at $12.375, which is 30% below the current price. Owning the stock for a 30% discount is your worst case!

    we want to find stocks that are likely to stay in a channel. Stocks that have decent volatility day to day (to boost the price of the options we sell) but are not too likely to stray from a trading range of maybe 20% up or down. Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) comes to mind, McDonald's (NYSE:MCD), Verizon (NYSE:VZ), AT&T (NYSE:T), F... Blue chips are good when you are beginning, as they are less likely to go to zero

    I still like Ford, because F is only $12.49 a share so anyone can play with it. Option contracts trade in 100-share blocks so SELLING 10 of the 2019 $12 put for $1.92 ($1,920) obligates you to buy 1,000 shares of F for $12 ($12,000) and puts $1,920 in your pocket right away. That nets you into the stock for $10.08, which is giving yourself a quick 19.3% discount (see "How to Buy a Stock for a 15-20% Discount").

    You can then conservatively buy 1,000 shares the stock for $12.49 ($12,490) as well and that would put you in at a net of $10.57 a share and, if F goes below $12 and the 1,000 shares are assigned to you from the short puts, then you end up with 2,000 shares at an average of $11.285 ($22,570) - that's your maximum risk on the trade (and F is not likely to go to zero, of course). Now you can sell 10 2019 $12 calls for $1.80, putting another $1,800 in your pocket, so the total cash outlay drops to $8,780

    If you are called away in January 2019 at $12, you get paid $12,000 in cash, keep the $1,920 from selling the calls and the $1,800 from selling the puts. That would be a profit of $3,230, which is 36.7% of our cash outlay. Ford also pays a 0.20 quarterly dividend but we just missed January (18th) but seven more $200 payments is a bonus $1,400, which pumps our return up to 52.7%, that's 2.7% per month!

    And, don't forget, in the worst case, you end up with 2,000 shares at $22,570, which is $11.285/share and then the 0.80 annual dividend is 7% alone and, of course, we'd sell 20 more calls (not puts unless you want 4,000 shares) for $1.80 ($3,600) and suddenly, you have 2,000 shares at net $9.485 collecting your 0.20 quarterly dividends - that's 2% per quarter on dividends alone
    Now, there's a fancier way to play F and that's what we call an ARTIFICIAL buy/write where, instead of owning the stock (which pays a nice 4.85%, 0.80 dividend, we instead buy 10 2019 $10 ($2.98)/12 ($1.80) bull call spread for $1.18, selling the same $12 puts for $1.92. That gives you a net credit on the spread of 0.74 ($740) and we're only obligated to buy 1,000 shares for net $12 ($12,000) and you will get back $2,000 in the spread if F simply holds $12 into January 2019. The stock does not have to go up for you to make money!

    On the downside, the worst that can happen is you end up owning 1,000 shares of F for net $11.26 - a 10% discount to the current price. Given we have such a nice position, we can still sell calls to make even more money. Since our cash outlay is a 0.74 credit and margin required is $1.44 per contract, our goal should be just to collect 10% per month of the 0.70 cash+margin we've committed to the trade - otherwise, we are engaging in the great sins of greed and over-leveraging

    Looking to make 0.07 per month is easy. We can, for example, sell five March $13 calls for 0.15 ($75) and see how that goes before selling more. That's a very easy way to quickly generate 10% monthly returns while your upside risk doesn't kick in until F is over $13.15, well over the top of your spread (otherwise, you just roll your short calls along on months you don't collect the cash).

    As a rule of thumb, if a stock isn't paying 3.5% or better dividend, there's no point in tying up the cash required to own it - so we'll prefer the artificial buy/write to the traditional but both are valid and both are very powerful long-term wealth creation tools that form the basis of our Long-Term Portfolio.

    Here's a great list of Top Dividend Stocks by Sector and Coke (NYSE:KO) is on sale and pays a $1.40 (3.35%) dividend which, of course, we can enhance using our system.
    • Buy six KO 2019 $35 calls for $7.50 ($4,500)
    • Sell six KO 2019 $42 calls for $2.90 ($1,740)
    • Sell four KO 2019 $38 puts for $2.85 ($1,140)
    • Sell three KO April $42 calls for $0.67 ($201)

    Our net entry here is just $1,419 on the $4,200 spread so the upside potential here is $2,781 (196%) plus whatever other short calls we sell along the way. The net ordinary margin on the short puts is $1,948 and, of course, we're obligated to own 400 shares of KO at $38 ($15,200) plus the $1,419 we lay out works out to an average of $41.55 if assigned so no discount but a much smaller assignment risk this way.
     
  126. one of my favorite books is The Power of Miracle Metaphysics by Robert B. Stone
     
  127. [​IMG]
    Keeping our hearts healthy helps us live longer, more active lives. So make sure your heart stays in good shape by reducing inflammation...

    Inflammation weakens or irritates the walls of your arteries. When your immune system kicks in to fight it, plaque (made from white blood cells and cholesterol) forms to "heal" the damaged area. That's why it's so important to get inflammation in check before it attacks your arteries.

    My advice this week: Be sure to eat plenty of inflammation-fighting foods. These include tomatoes, carrots, bananas, coffee, dark chocolate, and my favorite... blueberries.
     
  128. looking thru CVX options looks like over 2000 apr call spreads 110/115 placed, about 2.50 db
     
  129. my oil watch list, SLB, XOM, CVX, TSO, VLO, MRO, mainly do csp

    USO, IEO, OIH, XLE, XOP, for etfs
     
  130. You're pretty off. What are you on about?



    I would not mind your thread, but this bit bothers me..."My advice this week: Be sure to eat plenty of inflammation-fighting foods. These include tomatoes, carrots, bananas, coffee, dark chocolate, and my favorite... blueberries."

    Those products in bolded text contain caffeine. And some people have problems with hypertension, and cannot have any caffeine in their diet. Do you understand this?

    Stick to your trading calls, and stop trying to give second-hand advice to people about diet. You can get people killed, physically. Seriously, man.
     
  131. "After a time, you may find that having is not so pleasing a thing, after all, as wanting. It is not logical, but it is often true.” ~ Spock, Star Trek
     
  132. quad witch and quarterly rebalancing hit one of my option positions, I will be careful next time around, in June
     
  133. from the MHFT
    Read them and weep:

    1) The US is going into recession. The recent spate of "hard" economic data says this is exactly the case, with Q1 GDP forecasts pared back to only 0.5%, Consumer Price Index -0.3%, Core CPI -0.1%, and Retail Sales -0.2%.

    2) No major legislation will be enacted into law this year, not for health care, and not for tax reform, deregulation, or infrastructure.

    3) The president is a phony. Lots of talk, but no action is something the markets were only willing to tolerate for two months after the inauguration. After that, they went into "Show me" mode.

    4) The US is about to enter prolonged ground wars in North Korea, Syria, and Afghanistan. It turns out that bombing foreigners is easier for the president than getting legislation through a Republican controlled congress. It always is.

    5) The stock market is about to crash. So far, we have been suffering a death by a thousands cuts. The downside momentum will accelerate once we smash through the 200-day moving average at $221. That "Sell in May" thing is just around the corner.


    6) The Trump trade is toast. Financial, commodity, energy, coal, and industrial stocks will lead the charge to the downside. Iron ore prices down by a third in two months says the whole story.

    7) The price of oil is about to collapse, once the markets call the bluff on a second OPEC quota extension. Even if they agree, quota cheating is about to explode, dumping millions of barrels of oil on the market before it becomes worthless.

    Did you know that alternatives accounted for 50% of California's total power supply on some days of this week, and that the wholesale price for solar energy fell to zero?

    Yet, my local utility still has to pay me four cents a kilowatt/hour for my excess solar power.

    Ha Ha. Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha!

    8) Gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) will rocket. It has already blasted through its 200-day moving average to the upside, and $1,300 per troy ounce beckons. Gold could imminently hit a four-year high at $1,380, and then eventually the old high of $1,922.

    9) The US dollar is headed lower. Take the rising interest rate support away from the greenback, and it should fall like a ton of bricks. The yen is headed to ¥100 a dollar, and the Euro will rebound to $1.10 after the French election. Foreign stock markets will shudder.

    10) The unemployment rate, now near all time lows, is about to take off. The great irony here is that while the president vociferously campaigned on an aggressive jobs program, he may well preside over the biggest job losses in history, thanks to hyper accelerating automation and artificial intelligence.

    For more on this, please read my recent piece, "Why You Will Lose Your Job in the Next Five Years and What to Do About It" .

    There is another alternative explanation to all of this.

    The bear market in bonds is not dead, it is just resting. So is the Trump trade, possibly for another six months.

    A certain Monty Python sketch about a parrot comes to mind.

    That all we are seeing is a giant short squeeze in the hedge funds' 2017 core short position in bonds for the umpteenth time, and that we are almost done.


    Hedge funds have grown in size to where they are now the perfect contrary market indicator. It is the classic "Too many people in one side of the canoe" trade.

    All that is left is another six basis points on the downside in yield terms, or three quarters of a point in downside in price terms for the TLT.

    That takes us down to a 2.10% yield in the ten-year Treasury bond which was exactly the upside breakout point for bonds in the fall.

    That's where you load the boat on the short side for bonds, for what will become one of the best trades of the year.

    There are other structural factors at play here which are hard to beat. For more on this, please read my opus on "Why Are Bond Yields So Low".
     
  134. Those links point to a subscription service.

    Care to post the text here ?
     
  135. what link are you referring to?
     
  136. UVXY call credit spreads,

    5/5, opened jun 16, 13/18 c, .87 credit.
    5/16, bought back for .45 debit

    5/17, opened jun16 13/18c, 1.74 credit
     
  137. traderline 6/18/2017

    ung, looks like a bottom
    uso, more downside?
    iwm, needs to move on up to keep market going
    qqq, caution, but holding the 50ma
    tlt, getting extended to the upside?

    nvda, might consider jul 170/175 call credit spread
    svxy, look at 6/30 125 strike cash secured put
    uvxy, have been successful with bear call credit spreads, now waiting for reverse split
    gm, holding some stock from a trade that went bad because did not check ex/div date,
    and did not take a good look at the chart, sold csp at way too high of stock move,
    but have recouped a lot of the original loss
     
  138. let the trade expire on 6/16, kept all credit
     
  139. Rules for trading (from a successful trader I know)
    1.Protect Capital
    a.Using stop loss
    b.Check for earning/ex div date/news
    c.Use covered, collared calls or protective puts for stocks
    d.Ask for advice from coaches/mentors for analysis
    2. Have a Plan
    a. Stock and options can only go 3 ways up, down or sideways
    b. Have a target price, exit strategy bullish or bearish
    on the position
    c. Always check fundamentals and technical analysis b
    efore hand
    3. No more Shorting
    a. But you can buy puts
    4. Only trade on market open or close
    a. adjust position close to the market open or close
    b. unsure on what to do take a walk and review notes
    5. When using options look up the strategies first
    6. Position sizing
    a. 4 position = 12,500
    b. 5 position=10,000
    7. Only Trade stocks that have a history
    a. no trading stock that just hits the market
    b. china stocks are suspect right now renren ,yoku, bidu,
    sina
    c. 2 years or more to trade
     
  140. traderline 6/25/2017

    ung, still, looks like a bottom
    uso, more downside? might be nearing a bottom
    iwm, needs to move on up to keep market going
    qqq, caution, but holding the 50ma
    tlt, still, getting extended to the upside?

    nvda, might consider jul 170/175 call credit spread, it worked and still might be good
    svxy, look at 6/30 125 strike cash secured put, its working
    uvxy, have been successful with bear call credit spreads, now waiting for reverse split
    gm, holding some stock from a trade that went bad because did not check ex/div date,
    and did not take a good look at the chart, sold csp at way too high of stock move,
    but have recouped a lot of the original loss
     
  141. By Bill Bonner, chairman, Bonner & Partners

    “Elizabeth,” I asked this morning as my wife climbed out of the pool. “How would you describe that sea turtle we saw on the beach?”

    Pausing for a moment, she replied, “Rotating its slow and majestic flippers, it ground its way slowly and inexorably toward China…”

    The sea turtle was headed east. Whether China was its destination or not, I don’t know. I only know that it was about to leave the Latin America isthmus, from the west coast of Nicaragua, and put out to sea when a muscular, brown young man picked it up and carried it back up on the beach. He and his friends had dug a big hole in the sand where the turtle was placed.

    At night, we often see the dim light of flashlights along the beach. “It’s the locals looking for turtle eggs,” Manuel explained. “It’s illegal to take them, but…” Manuel shrugged his shoulders.

    Sea turtles are protected by international convention. But here in the wilds of Nicaragua, they still end up in the soup from time to time.

    Not the Same America

    This is America, too… but it is not the same America. It is the New World… but not as new as the world north of the Rio Grande. Here, the Old World has not yet been snuffed out. It survives in a semitropical paradise.

    But the object of our attention today is neither the Old World nor the new onebut the ever-changing, never fully explored idea of America.

    “Proud to be an American,” says one bumper sticker. “One nationindivisible,” says another. America was, of course, founded on the opposite principle… the idea that people were free to separate themselves from a parent government whenever they felt they had come of age. But no fraud, no matter how stupendous, is so obvious as to be detected by the average American. That is America’s great strength… or its most serious weakness.

    After September 11, so many people bought flags that the shops ran short. Old Glory festooned nearly every porch and bridge. Patriotism swelled in every heart.

    Europeans, coming back to the Old Country, reported that they had never seen anything like it. A Frenchman takes his country for granted. He is born into it, just as he is born into his religion. He may be proud of La Belle France the way he is proud of his cheese. But he is not fool enough to claim credit for either one. He just feels lucky to have them for his own.

    What Makes America Different?

    America, by contrast, is a nation of people who chose to become Americans. Even the oldest family tree in the New World has immigrants at its roots. And where did its government, its courts, its businesses, and its saloons come from?

    They were all invented by us. Having chosen the country… and made it what it is… Americans feel more responsibility for what it has become than the citizens of most other nations. And they take more pride in it, too.

    But what is it? What has it become? What makes America different from any other nation? Why should we care more about it than about, say, Lithuania or Chad?

    Pressed for an answer, most Americans would reply, “Because America is a free country.” What else can be said of the place? Its landmass is as varied as the Earth itself. Inhabiting the sands of Tucson as well as the steppes of Alaska, Americans could as well be called a desert race as an arctic one.

    Its religions are equally diversefrom moss-backed Episcopalians of the Virginia tidewater to the Holy Rollers of East Texas to the Muslims of East Harlem.

    Nor does blood itself give the country any mark of distinction. The individual American has more in common genetically with the people his people come from than with his fellow Americans. In a DNA test, your correspondent is more likely to be mistaken for an IRA hitman than a Baltimore drug dealer.

    America never was a nation in the usual sense of the word. Though there are plenty of exceptionsespecially among the made-up nations of former European coloniesnations are usually composed of groups of people who share common blood, culture, and language.

    Americans mostly speak English. But they might just as well speak Spanish. And at the debut of the republic, the Founding Fathers narrowly avoided declaring German the official language… at least that is the legend.

    A Frenchman has to speak French. A German has to speak the language of the Vaterland. But an American could speak anything. And often does.

    Be What You Want to Be

    Nor is there even a common history. The average immigrant didn’t arrive until the early 20th century. By then, America’s history was already three centuries old. The average citizen missed the whole thing.

    Neither blood, history, religion, languagewhat else is left? Only an idea: that you could come to America and be whatever you wanted to be. You might have been a bogtrotter in Ireland or a baron in Silesia; in America, you were free to become whatever you could make of yourself.

    “Give me liberty or give me death,” said Patrick Henry, raising the rhetorical stakes and praying no one would call him on it. Yet the average man at the time lived in near-perfect freedom.

    There were few books and few laws on them. And fewer people to enforce them. Henry, if he wanted to do so, could have merely crossed the Blue Ridge west of Charlottesville and never seen another government agent again.

    Taxation With Representation

    Thomas Jefferson complained, in the Declaration of Independence, that Britain had “erected a multitude of New Offices, and set hither swarms of Officers to harass our people, and eat out their substance.”

    Yet the swarms of officers sent by King George III would have barely filled a midsize regional office of the IRS or city zoning department today.

    Likewise, the Founding Fathers kvetched about taxation without representation. But history has shown that representation only makes taxation worse. Kings, emperors, and tyrants must keep tax rates low… Otherwise, the people rise in rebellion.

    It is Democrats that really eat out the substance of the people: The illusion of self-government lets them get away with it. Tax rates were only an average of 3% under the tyranny of King George III. One of the blessings of democracy is average tax rates that are 10 times as high.

    “Americans today,” wrote Rose Wilder Lane in 1936, after the Lincoln administration had annihilated the principle of self-government… but before the Roosevelt team had finished its work, “are the most reckless and lawless of peoples… We are also the most imaginative, the most temperamental, the most infinitely varied.”

    But by the end of the 20th century, Americans were required to wear seat belts and ate low-fat yogurt without a gun to their heads. The recklessness seems to have been bred out of them. And the variety, too. North, south, east, and west, people all wear the same clothes and cherish the same decrepit ideas as if they were religious relics.

    And why not? It’s a free country.

    Regards,

    [​IMG]
     
  142. list of popular stocks
    AA
    AAL
    AAPL
    ABC
    ABX
    ACN
    ADBE
    ADP
    ADSK
    AEIS
    AET
    AGN
    AGO
    AIG
    AKAM
    AKS
    ALJ
    ALXN
    AMAG
    AMAT
    AMBA
    AMD
    AMGN
    AMT
    AMZN
    AOS
    AOSL
    APD
    APH
    APT
    ARRS
    ATVI
    AVGO
    AWK
    AXP
    AXTI
    AZN
    AZO
    BA
    BABA
    BAC
    BBY
    BCOV
    BIDU
    BIG
    BIIB
    BLUE
    BMRN
    BMY
    BP
    BREW
    BURL
    C
    CAT
    CCL
    CELG
    CIM
    CLVS
    CMCSA
    CME
    CMG
    CMI
    COP
    COST
    CP
    CRM
    CRUS
    CSCO
    CSX
    CTRP
    CTSH
    CVCY
    CVS
    CVX
    CYBR
    DAL
    DB
    DDD
    DIA
    DIS
    DKS
    DOG
    DUST
    EA
    EBAY
    EDU
    EEM
    ELLI
    EOG
    ESRX
    ETR
    EW
    EWN
    EWY
    EXPD
    EXPE
    EXR
    F
    FANG
    FAS
    FB
    FCX
    FDX
    FEYE
    FFIV
    FIT
    FN
    FNSR
    FSLR
    GDX
    GE
    GILD
    GLD
    GM
    GOOG
    GOOGL
    GPRE
    GPRO
    GRUB
    GS
    GWPH
    HA
    HACK
    HAS
    HD
    HLF
    HON
    HRB
    IBB
    IBM
    ILMN
    INTC
    IRET
    ISIL
    ISRG
    IT
    IWM
    IYR
    IYT
    JACK
    JNJ
    JNUG
    JPM
    KITE
    KMI
    KO
    KORS
    KR
    KSU-
    LEA
    LITE
    LMT
    LNG
    LNKD
    LOW
    LPCN
    LULU
    LUV
    LVS
    MA
    MCD
    MCK
    MDT
    MET
    MGPI
    MHK
    MMM
    MO
    MOMO
    MON
    MPC
    MRK
    MRO
    MSFT
    MSI
    MU
    NBL
    NEM
    NFLX
    NHTC
    NKE
    NTAP
    NTES
    NUGT
    NVDA
    NXPI
    OEUH
    ORCL
    ORLY
    P
    PAM
    PANW
    PAYC
    PCG
    PCLN
    PEP
    PFE
    PG
    PM
    PNRA
    POT
    PRI
    PRU
    PYPL
    QCOM
    QQQ
    REGN
    RGLD
    RIC
    RIO
    ROST
    RTN
    SBGL
    SBUX
    SCTY
    SGEN
    SHPG
    SLAB
    SLV
    SLW
    SMH
    SPY
    SQ
    SSO
    STX
    SVXY
    SWHC
    SWK
    SWKS
    SYK
    SYY
    T
    TAO
    TAP
    TASR
    TBT
    TCK
    TD
    TECK
    TFI
    TI
    TIF
    TJX
    TLT
    TMUS
    TNA
    TPL
    TQQQ
    TRV
    TSCO
    TSLA
    TSN
    TSO
    TWLO
    TWTR
    TWX
    TXN
    UA
    UAL
    ULTA
    UNG
    UNH
    UNP
    UPS
    USO
    UTX
    UUP
    UVXY
    V
    VLO
    VMW
    VNQ
    VRX
    VXX
    VYM
    VZ
    WBA
    WDC
    WFC
    WFM
    WMGI
    WMT
    WYNN
    X
    XIV
    XL
    XLE
    XLF
    XLK
    XLNX
    XLRE
    XLU
    XLV
    XOM
    XON
    XRS
    YELP
    YUM
    Z
    ZLTQ
     
  143. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-24/about-262-million-man-vix-option-play-analysis

    .....from the article....

    Generally speaking, the VIX will rise given a move in stocks lower. That is due to unhedged equity longs who rush in to buy Puts in a stock wash out. Conversely, the VIX will generally drop in an equity rally as longs sell more Calls to create dividends. The VIX is not a fear/ greed index. It is an indicator of dominant market players who are underhedged. VIX only tells you likely speed of a fall or rally, not which way stocks will go.
     
  144. trying some signals on hi yield bonds relation to stocks to trade vol, switch between vxx
    and xiv...
    it was saying short vol thru most of year, started to signal caution late july,
    went full switch on 8/4
     
  145. here are the current results of my xiv/vxx switch trade

    did some simple back testing for earlier years and started in jan 2017,
    started with small amount of cash,
    bought 10 shares xiv at $50.29, $502.90
    held thru several alerts that lasted less than 3 days

    in june and july cautions started showing up
    on 8/3 and 8/4 the signals were strong
    on 8/7 made the switch from xiv to vxx as follows,
    sold 10 xiv at $94.29, $942.90
    bought 50 vxx at $11.15, $557.50, held $385.40 cash

    vxx on 8/17 @ $13.66, $683.00
    overall $1,068.40, starting with $502.90, net $565.50
    xiv is at $71.50, so with out switch overall would be $715.00, net $212.10

    plan on closing the vxx and go to all cash, wait to see how signals shake out
     
  146. $13.55 vxx stc, 8/18
     
  147. update on the xiv/vxx switch trade
    main signals used to switch,
    action of stock indexs, positive action, stay short vol
    junk and hiyield bond etfs, positve action, stay short vol
    contango/backwardation, contango, stay short vol

    thinking being that as long as stock traders are satisfied with market action,
    they will also look to junk and hiyield bonds, and have little need for protection,
    once they become concerned, they will get put protection and vix will rise.
    so we would be short vol, with xiv, until a switch signal called for exit of
    xiv, and then go long vol with vxx.

    did some backtest for 2015, 2016, and went live with a small position in Jan 2017,
    results for 2017 have been positive, 3 switches were called, the first 2 were too
    short lived to make an actual switch, on the 3rd, a switch was made and proved to be
    profitable.

    but i think going forward for this trade, looking at the results,
    i am not going to switch into vxx, just switch from xiv into cash.
    i have some other ideas for trading vxx.
     
  148. xiv/vxx switch update

    8/18 bto xiv $72.80, 10 shares, $728.00
     
  149. xiv/vxx switch update
    as of 9/1/2017, cash $334.90, + 10 shares xiv, $83.72 close, $837.20
    total, $1172.10
    starting amount $502.90, jan, 2017
    signal is still long for xiv
     
  150. xiv/vxx switch update

    9/5 sold xiv, $81.31

    all cash, $1148 total

    signal is long vxx, but I am staying in cash
     
  151. xiv/vxx switch update

    switch signal is still long vxx, from 9/5

    I have been in cash, may look at uvxy for a trade
     
  152. trade tracks

    5 basic corners of trading

    stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, volatility
     
  153. trade tracks
    I added another corner, 6 corners of trading,

    stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, volatility, real estate
     
  154. cash track, trade track, fight back

    watching for long trades,

    FCX, AMZN, DAL, MA, CTSH, INTU
     
  155. THE OTHER SIDE OF OPTION TRADES Market makers (MMs) are who’s on the other side of an option trade. When you go into the market and buy or sell an option, it’s the MMs who sell or buy it from you. But unlike a typical trader, MMs don’t try to profit on direction. They profit on the erosion of the option premium. MMs construct their trades to be “delta neutral” – meaning their positions aren’t affected by a change in a stock’s price. They’re just looking to profit as the option value wastes away over time. In order to do this, MMs usually buy or short the underlying stock in order to neutralize the position. For example, if a bunch of traders rush in to buy call options on a stock right before its earnings announcement, MMs are the ones selling those call options to them. The traders are betting on the stock moving higher, and the MMs – having taken the other side of the trade – are betting on a move lower. The MMs would lose money if the stock rallied. Remember, though, that MMs don’t trade on direction. They need to neutralize the trade so they don’t lose money if the stock rallies. So they buy the underlying stock. Now, instead of a short call position, the MMs have some form of a covered call trade. This is a simplistic example, but it should help you understand some of the forces that are at work as a stock approaches its earnings announcement. Traders buy call or put options in order to speculate on the direction of the stock after an earnings announcement. MMs sell those options and then either buy or short the underlying stock in order to neutralize the position. If there’s enough volume behind this activity, it creates the possibility of a reversal trade once the earnings announcement is out of the way. If the stock gaps higher, traders who bought call options are going to be liquidating their positions and taking profits. On the other side of those trades are the MMs, who buy the call options back and then liquidate their shares. The combination of traders selling their call options and MMs selling their shares creates selling pressure on the stock. And if the right conditions exist – which is what my system identifies – then a stock that initially gapped higher in response to an earnings announcement may reverse and turn back lower on the day.
     
  156. xiv/vxx switch update

    switch signal is still long vxx, from 9/5

    I have been in cash, may look at uvxy for a trade
     
  157. My strategy VIXTrader Professional holding now XIV and achieved in the last 12 months more than 130% with a very low DD..
     
  158. do you post your trades somewhere?
     
  159. my gain was 128% in 9 months
     
  160. update on vol switch trade
    tue sep 26, signal was a caution
    buy 12 shares XIV, $93.50, $1,122

    as of oct 4,
    holding 12 shares XIV, $99.60 EOD, total $1,195.20
    starting value, $502.90 jan, 2017
     
  161. going forward for this trade, looking at the results,

    i am not going to switch into vxx, just switch from xiv into cash
     
  162. cash track trade track

    week ahead oct 9, things to possibly watch out for,

    No Ko Kim making threats

    Monday 9, USA holiday, brings out the anti-celebrators

    tue 10, conference organized by Jim Grant with Jim Chanos, Marc Cohodes, and other big dollar guys, could be sparks in some stocks or sectors

    wed 11, release of Fed minutes from last meeting

    thu 12, JPM e/r

    fri 13, could be anti-celebrators for Friday 13th
    fri 13, BAC, WFC, JBHT, e/r
    fri 13, option expiry week 2 for October
     
  163. from optionprofitsdaily October 6, 2017

    A Bear Call Spread in COST

    For COST, we could sell an October 20 $160 call for about $1.30 and buy an October 20 $162.50 call for about $0.70. This trade generates a credit of $60, which is the difference in the amount of premium for the call that is sold and the call that is bought multiplied by 100 since each contract covers 100 shares. That is the maximum potential profit on the trade.

    The maximum risk on the trade is $180. The risk is found by subtracting the difference in the strike prices ($250 or $2.50 time 100 since each contract covers 100 shares) and then subtracting the premium received ($70).

    This trade offers a return of about 39% for a holding period that is about two weeks. This is a significant return on the amount of money at risk. This trade delivers the maximum gain if COST is below $160 when the options expire, a likely event given the stock’s trend.

    Call spreads can be used to generate high returns on small amounts of capital several times a year, offering larger percentage gains for small investors willing to accept the risks of this strategy. Those risks, in dollar terms, are relatively small, about $160 for this trade in COST
     
  164. update on vol switch trade
    signal is short vol with caution

    as of oct 13,
    holding 12 shares XIV, $107.84 EOD, total $1,294.08
    starting value, $502.90 jan, 2017
     
  165. Fri, Oct 13, hedge trade,

    TZA Dec 15, long call at $.64
     
  166. strike was 14 for the call
     
  167. cash track, trade track

    earnings of interest for week of Oct 23

    Tue 24, MCD, GM, CAT, CMG

    Wed 25, KO, FCX, TSLA

    Thu 26, TWTR, F, MO, AMZN, BIDU, MSFT

    Fri 27, CVX, XOM, RCL
     
  168. update on vol switch trade
    signal switched on Nov 2, to long vol with caution
    current plan is to go to cash

    as of Nov 2,
    sold 12 shares XIV, $111.03,
    total cash $1,332.36
    starting value, $502.90 jan, 2017

    this was a trial with a small amount of actual capital,
    I am planning to continue this trade
     
  169. vol switch trade

    wanted to compare buy and hold to the switches we made

    if we had just did buy and hold on the XIV,
    $1110.30 vs $1,332.36, so we are ahead by $222.33
     
  170. cash track, trade track

    some hi strength stocks,

    ADBE, ALG, ASML, TSCO, SMH, MU, MAS, LULU, DATA, COST, COG, TDY, NOW, MLCO, SJB,
    SHAK, SBUX, R, REV, BSX, BABA, VSLR, SOXL, .
     
  171. cash track, trade track, stay on the right track

    some thoughts on CSP

    if holding a CSP and the stock falls below the strike price, and you still favor the stock,
    roll-down or further out, or both.

    If the stock doesn’t soon recover, keep rolling.

    Eventually, well chosen stocks should recover.

    If it doesn’t and you end up with shares,
    then sell covered calls, you could also average down share price by buying more shares.

    Again, the stock must be well chosen, one you believe has sound fundamentals to come back from a drop in price.
     
  172. carnival deals, big wheels
    cash track, trade track
    half smile on the dirt track oval half mile

    some ideas on the front bench
    etfs
    EEMO
    ARKW
    XLK
    TLT
    stocks
    NRZ, 11.5% div

    vol switch trade is still long vol from NOV 2, it is in cash

    HYG and JNK under pressure, this is a caution signal, for me

    did the following trade on the VIX spike on tue 11/14,
    BTO feb VXX 37 put, $6.10, will look to close if it gets to 20% increase,
    was up 12% at fri close
     
  173. update on vol switch trade
    signal changed to short vol with caution as of Nov 16

    went from cash to long XIV 12 shares, $108.70, cost $1304.40
     
  174. "did the following trade on the VIX spike on tue 11/14,
    BTO feb VXX 37 put, $6.10, will look to close if it gets to 20% increase"


    closed on Nov 22 at $8.10, $2.00 gain, 33% gain
     
  175. update on vol switch trade
    trial program for 2017

    signal switched and has been short vol with caution from Nov 16
    holding long XIV 12 shares, EOD $135.24, $1,622.88

    starting value, $502.90 jan, 2017
     
  176. update on vol switch trade
    trial program for 2017

    latest signal is short vol with caution from Nov 16
    holding long XIV 12 shares, Dec, 29, EOD $134.44, $1,613.28

    starting value, $502.90 jan, 2017
    year 2017 gain, $1,110.38, 220%
     
  177. for 2017 went live with a vol switch trade strategy that I had been working on for about
    2 years. opened an account with about $500 to get it started.

    the account ended the year at $1,613.28.

    for 2018 was thinking of adding more money, but after more thought, think
    I will pull out the gain and ride with the $500 again.
     
  178. "And now we welcome the new year. Full of things that have never been."
    - Rainer Maria Rilke
     
  179. for 2017 went live with a vol switch trade strategy that I had been working on for about
    2 years.
    in Jan 2017,opened an account with about $500 to get it started.

    the account ended the year of 2017 at $1,613.28.

    I have thinking about what to do going into 2018, take some money out, add more,
    decided to let the account keep going as it is, so I am holding 12 shares of XIV.
     
  180. well, so much for that big sell off to start 2018 most were predicting, cheeseburgers devoured, next batch getting ready for the grille....
     
  181. vol switch trade

    want emphasize that when trading vol related products, it is possible to have sudden,
    severe losses, that could be up to 50% of a position.
    you either need a hedge to offset the loss, or a plan to recover from the loss, or both.
     
  182. vol switch trade

    signals used to switch mainly derived from the following,
    action of stock indexs, positive action, stay short vol
    junk and hiyield bond etfs, positve action, stay short vol
    contango/backwardation, ( structure, M1, M2}, contango, stay short vol

    Thinking being that as long as stock traders are satisfied with market action,
    they will also look to junk and hi-yield bonds, and have little need for protection,
    once they become concerned, they will get stock index put protection and vix will rise.
    So we would be short vol, with XIV, until a switch signal called for exit of
    XIV, and go to cash.

    Again, want emphasize that when trading vol related products, such as XIV, it is possible to have sudden, severe losses, that could be up to 50% of a position.
    Either need a hedge to offset the loss, or a plan to recover from the loss, or both.