Trading as Combinations ?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by K-Pia, Apr 26, 2016.

  1. K-Pia

    K-Pia

    Assumptions
    _ One Risk 5% Max
    _ One hold until TP or SL
    _ TP brings 5%, SL take 2.5%
    _ TP is twice SL but P(TP) = 0,5*
    * You're a super speculator.
    _ Each trade is independent.
    _ H = (2.5)% G = 5%

    HH -5
    HH -5
    HH -5
    HH -5
    HGHH (2.5)
    HGHG 5
    HGGH 5
    HGGG 12.5
    GHHH (2.5)
    GHHG 5
    GHGH 5
    GHGG 12.5
    GGHH 5
    GGHG 12.5
    GGGH 12.5
    GGGG 20

    0.0625*20
    0.1250*(2.5)
    0.2500*12.5
    0.2500*(5)
    0.3125*5

    Average 4.375%
    Min (5)% Max 20% Mode 5%
    Per Session after 4 trials.

    Isn't that wonderful?
    But if you're not a super speculator ...
    It looks less sexy. Sorry. But that's the trick.
    To defy the law of probability with tape reading power.
     
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2016