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Tomorrow's Chart Today-Part 2

  1. Attached is a weekly forecast made for Gold in December of 2015 for the 2016 current year. This type of forecast can be done for any market or time frame as long as the data is available. The key to following the data is in following the sequences of Peaks or Valleys of the data points. You will see how some Q and Sym Peak and Valley segments are aligned and how some are not. You will see how some confirm each other, others are overlapped. Follow along and see if you can determine the future swings or why the market may have turned when it did.

    I have given you little information so do not attempt to trade this data and there is no guarantee you can ever make money trading, as a matter of fact you can lose it all and then some. Also the data is not optimized in any way, it is what it is, and of course nothing is perfect. Will I be answering questions that you may have, very few and only if I feel they have merit. Please don't be offended if I don't answer your question.

    Just a quick note, I am a one man shop so please respect that. I want you to see what competition you are up against and the sophisticated algorithms that have been developed over time. If all goes well, (no nonsense will be tolerated in this thread, as this is about the data, not about myself or anything else) and if time or conditions permit I will post more. Also I will reveal more about the data. Do I have numerous stocks, commodities, currencies, indices, and bonds, including daily and intraday forecast sure I do. Let's just start and go from here.
     
  2. What's Q ? What's Sym ?
    What's the independent variable ?
    How does a sequence becomes broken ?
    How does a new sequence actually begins ?
    I don't see any meaningful relationship.
    Can't find any meaningful pattern.
    I am not good at forecasting.

    However I know that forcasters need :
    Singular as well as distributional data set.
    Half is missing so A Priori it's bad forcasting.
     
  3. Crude Oil 30 Minute on Friday 6/10/16.
     

  4. Well there you go.... CLEAR as MUD. We need one of Staples "That was easy" Button.

    Thank you for this waste of space
     
  5. This is garbage.
     
  6. Tried to find Part One but it's missing.
    Got to tell me what numerical system you use.
     
  7. Crude Oil 30 Minute 6/13/10
     
  8. ES 30 Minute 6/13/16...Review file
     
  9. What time zone is this supposed to be read in?

    Can you define what a sequence is and the qualifications of a sequence break?
     
  10. EST Time Zone for all intraday forecasst. To answer your other question:

    Say there are consecutive higher peaks or it could be valleys of 98 105 110 92, 92 breaks the sequence and is a turning point. Or say if you have consecutive lower peaks or valleys of 68 52 12 18, 18 breaks the sequence and is the turning point. Hope that helps.
     
  11. That does help, would love to get a chart for tomorrow.
     
  12. Attached is the ES File for 6/17/16. Look at the rules for finding turning points in the reply to trackstar and read the information in the attached document.
     
  13. On the ES Chart for 6/17 a Q Peak at 0930 and Sym Valley at 0930 broke their sequences and were turning points. Since Q was involved 0900/0930 had to be assessed as I described and it was a top, so a sell was in order. Now you have these Q tangents (not written about yet) involved at 1030 and 1130, with 1130 being the strongest and as described with Q they are about completing symmetry, so since 1000 was down 1030 could be a reversal back up, or it may stagnate here, because trend traders aren't going to want to let go of the initial sell off. 1100 will set up what 1130 will be.
     
  14. The market reversed up during 1030 until it got within 1.25 points of the open and the trend traders moved in and began selling the market again when it got above the 5min Bollinger Band at 66.75. They sold it hard.
     
  15. During the 1100 30min time frame the move up and then back down appears to have set up for an 1130 low. 1130 is a Sym Valley broken sequence and turning point. But I do expect volatility to be much less after 1130
     
  16. A long at 1130 was good and now the worst case scenario is a break even, or if you can tolerate some pressure, it's still a good long unless it breaks 52.00 The target is typically 5 points depending on your fill and market conditions. Definitely cover between 59.00 and 59.50. Always trade with targets, which is a good exit strategy. So if you recognized the 0930 High and this 1130 low turning points you've had a good day. I see the trend traders tried selling the 5 minute moving average Bollinger Band, which is to be expected. Market Makers and Scalpers do have their impact too but they typically do not stay in the market very long. Target easily hit and I am done for the day. Enjoy your weekend.
     
  17. I should make mention that there are other broken sequences today but I'll let you find them to observe what they cause to happen. Sequences can be long or for a short duration, also this can be done for any time frame, Monthly, Weekly, Daily, intraday, etc., and for any market.
     
  18. define "sequence"
     
  19. Consecutive numeric Higher Peaks or Valley's, or consecutive numeric Lower Peaks or Valleys. An example is given in another response to trackstar. Hope this helps.
     
  20. Why did the market turn back down? The answer was given by the broken sequences and conditions of adjacent 30 Minute Q's. The information is described for you. But when the aspect of adjacent Q's was satisfied and it got near the 5Min Lower Bollinger Band someone bought it.
    After you make adjustments in your thinking you will find this to be pretty simple for all the complexities involved. And remember there are always the Trend Traders, Scalpers, Market Makers, Bollinger Band Buyers/Sellers, Stochastic, RSI, and Astrology folks still doing what they do and I respect them.
     
  21. We have a Q Valley broken sequence at 1500, but we also have a broken sequence on both Sym Peaks and Sym Valleys occurring adjacent to each other. A Sym Valley at 1500 and Sym Peak at 1530. This will determine the next move in the market. We have a very strong Sym tangent at 1530. Our 1130 Low has held up at this point in time.
     
  22. The attached Q and Sym Tangent Charts.
     
  23. Sym Valleys, the broken sequences of 0930, 1130, and 1500 are the intraday High's and Low. Note how the broken sequences of the Q Peak at 0930 and Q Valley at 1500 (remember Q's are about completing symmetry) overlap by 1 tick. On the Daily 6/15 was a Q Peak broken sequence, and 6/16 was a Sym Peak broken sequence. Note the Daily price behavior because of it. Could care less about the Fed meeting. At this point no new intraday positions would be initiated, although I wouldn't be a surprise if they reversed off of 1530, or at least tried. Not enough leverage or movement to trade overnight although it still works the same. Have a good weekend!
     
  24. ES_Crude_Bonds_Charts for 6/20/16. Based on the information provided see if you can determine where the tops, bottoms, or significant turning points will be.
     
  25. Look at Friday's 8:36 pm post. Today ES Sym broken sequence Valley at 1030 and Bonds Sym broken sequence Valley 1130. They are on the charts I uploaded Sunday evening. Trading with 5 point targets on the ES you're out, it was an obvious sell at 1030 and obvious buy on the Bonds at 1130. Still in the Bond Trade, but you would have a break even stop now.
     
  26. Same thing with Crude Oil...It's Sym Valley sequence was broken at 1030, it was a reversal buy. If it hits 50.00 you're out and you would have a break even stop in at this point.
     
  27. You're out of the Bonds on a break even stop. Would I be surprised if they take the Bonds back up, not at all. But have a plan and stick with it. You could move your stop up on the Crude trade and take cents if it gets hit, otherwise leave the break even stop in and go for 50 cents.
     
  28. When does the next ES Sym Valley broken sequence occur? 1530, which should be the low from the 1030 Sym Valley High.
     
  29. ES should reverse at 1530 or at 77.25
     
  30. When they come back at you that strong take the small loss. I thought for a moment they were going to be able to sustain a move up but that changed quickly. I personally won't take a trade so late in day when the market is moving strongly in one direction. If I had and they took out 77.25 I would be gone. This is why I said earlier I have respect for these markets, trend traders, etc.
     
  31. ES Chart 6/21/16. I have turns at 0930 1200 and 1400 today.
     
  32. 0930 was an inside bar on the 30 minute, so it was likely that until the bottom of 0900 was broken would there be a willingness to buy the market. But of course then the trend traders thought they would capture a big down move and they continued to sell every pop up while 0930 turning point or contrarians were buying every dip down. Not until the 1100 Q peak broken sequence came into play are we seeing a little more buying but gridlock still remains. I guess Yellen is testifying but once again I could careless.
     
  33. If we could see a strong move through 79.50 we likely will have a confirmed 1200 Turning Point Low. However there's nothing to like about today's market. 1200 makes a low but finishes at the top of it's range. Some will be trying to sell it.
     
  34. Popped up and now rolling back down into 1400. Haven't made a dime today but haven't taken a loss either. Take those break even trades, don't let the market hand you a big loss. Will go long at 1400.
     
  35. what is trading @ 1400?
     
  36. If it breaks 77.00 I'm out
     
  37. 5 point target, if it trades above 84.50 I'll take profit. Too soon to put in a break even stop.
     
  38. what a clueless ahole
     
  39. Stop to 78.00
     
  40. 5 point target hit, out and done for the day. This was not an easy day.
     
  41. ES_6_22_16 Times to watch today for turning points are 1200 1330 1530. Of course there are other moves that can be identified if you read what was written in previous post. For example yesterday the 1600 Q Peak was going to cause a reversal from the 1530 Price High. But there is a limited amount of time that I can be posting or trying to describe the detailed aspects of what is happening.
     
  42. It's going to get choppy now, for the next 2 hours. You may see some good swings but
    better know how to play them in a precise way.
     
  43. Wrong about the choppy part as from the 1200 time frame they pretty much took it straight down. The Q Peak distorted 1200 and some were wanting to buy after the initial drop but 1200 was a Sym Valley High. A 1330 Low is in and if you got long at the Bollinger Band (77.50) you are in good shape or on the close of 1330 (79.50) you are okay at the moment and have a manageable trade. It's always best to buy or sell the extremes if possible. 1400 will be tough to deal with as the market will decided whether to continue back up or try to take it back down off of it. If you bought the Bollinger Band low you may hit a 5 point target soon.
     
  44. Bottom Bollinger Band buyers hit their 5 point target, at the close buyers of 1330 got close and taking 4 points is fine. There was little risk no matter how you played it and that's important. If you want to be aggressive you could sell it here at 82.00.
     
  45. They sold it, hit the 5 minute Bollinger Band Moving Average Band and bought it back but I'm not so sure we will be up and away. I was looking for 1500 or 1530 to be some kind of low. This kind of trading goes on all day.
     
  46. The main thing in this business is to always protect yourself, because anything can happen. You must know your data intimately and how the market (price behavior) responds to it. This is what data modeling is all about. If you hit 76.75 a 5 point profit target will be hit from the 82.00 aggressive sell I mentioned. At this point a break even stop would be in place. If one wanted to be aggressive again you could buy during 1530 or at it's close.
     
  47. They wasted no time buying this market after 1500. No surprise there as a Q Peak was involved with the 1530 Sym Valley. You really have to read and study this data to completely understand what is happening. I am debating on how much longer to post.
     
  48. Read and study what?

    You haven't said how you derive the squiggly lines you posted. Are they peaks/valleys of yesterday projected onto today?

    What is the difference in Q and S? Tangent and non?

    Did you learn at the knee of Jack Hershey?
     
  49. It is too overwhelming to trade and try to post during the day. So I am going to have to rethink this entire endeavor.
     
  50. I recall the first thread in this series.

    It was incredible.
     
  51. ES_6_27_16. This is what the data was telling me the form of the market would be today. 930 was a broken sequence on the Sym Valley. Translating the data gives me the form.
     
  52. A simple but effective tool to follow the market with is the 3x2, and it works on any time frame. It is the average of 3 time bar closes displaced or moved forward by 2 bars. If the market is below the 3x2 and price is moving down to the right, you have a negative trend, if it is above the 3x2 and price is moving up and to the right you have a positive trend. As you work with this you will discover many aspects about how this tool can be utilized. This is not an original idea and there are variations of it out there. Works nicely with other tools you may use.
     
  53. 1330 was a Sym Valley broken sequence again. 1430 was a Q Valley broken sequence, and according to what was written about Q broken sequences they involve 2 time bars, the one before they actually occur and the one time frame they occur on. Look at 1400 and 1430 red bar down and green bar up on the 30 Minute data. Now check out the 3x2 on the 30 Minute data from 0930 and the Form of the Market file posted earlier, it is a mirror image of the form of the market today. All of these aspects are calculated before they happen. Both Sym Valley's set up great trades today and fit nicely into the form of the market. 5 point trades were easily achieved and if you trailed them properly or just used the 3x2, they were worth much more.
     
  54. Attached is a visual of what was just described.
     
  55. Intraday short covering began at a double bottom around 1530 and a break of the 3x2 at 1988, even fueled the rally more, but your downside targets were hit long before that happened. Trading with targets is always best, because we all know anything can happen.
     
  56. ES Daily from 4/4/16 to 7/1/16. if you know how to use this chart in conjunction with the Weekly you can find tops and bottoms with the Broken Sequences, and of course with the correction translation, the entire form the market would take. You can even see glimpses of it in these charts, especially Q. Today (6/28/16) 1130 will likely be the most significant turn today, but not without some swings back and forth this afternoon. I'll let you find those other broken sequences.
     
  57. I wouldn't be surprised if this recent 2006.00 Low during the 1130 Sym Valley 30 Minute could be near the Low for rest of the day. You will definitely see some Q Peak and Valley swings back and forth. A Q Valley Broken Sequence was the 1000 High. Should be for an interesting afternoon. 1200 is a Sym Peak so we'll see if it challenges that 1130 Low, or reverses off of it.
     
  58. Here are the intraday charts for ES 6/29/16 and the Broken Sequences: Q Peak-1000, 1230
    Q Valley-900, 1030,1200,1600 Sym Peak 1100, 1300, 1500 Sym Valley 1230. Check to see if I got them right and how I did it. Watch how the market trades on the time frame before a Q Peak or Valley and then what happens on the actual time frame of the Q Peak or Q Valley. Observe the price behavior. Remember Q's are about completing a form of symmetry. I'll let you determine where the most significant turn will be. I gave that one to you yesterday.
     
  59. 1230 Sym Valley
     
  60. We have a Sym Valley Broken Sequence on the Daily today...That chart was provided a few days ago. I expect a reversal off of today's High on the Daily. Because of the Daily Sym Valley I expected the trend traders to buy the market back after the 1230 Sym Valley sell off at what ever support mechanism could be found. How much higher will they go, who knows? But I think we are close to ceilings for this rally. We have a Sym Peak Broken Sequence at 1500.
     
  61. I thought they might end up closing at or near the 1230 High of 2059.75. It got there and of course it was bought back, but we still have time. 1600 Q Valley set up the 1530 High and that is when some covered and started selling. 1500 Sym Peak was a classic continuance as they sold it off but it was bought back too on the 1500 bar. Our Daily Bollinger Band Moving Average is not far away.
     
  62. Nice reversal off of the 1600 Q Valley Low to new Highs which I should have known would happen in these market conditions.
     
  63. ES_6/30/16 Q Peak 900 1400...Q Valley 830 1330...Sym Peak 630 1230 1600
    Sym Valley 830 1200
     
  64. You can see the turn was made at 830 on the Sym Valley. Now will it hold through the morning
    opening and continue up? Will the market break 2062.50, then follow through and continue down, or will that be an area where buying kicks in again if they get there? When trades are made always protect yourself. We are in a Q Peak at the moment which may cause the market to reverse and go back down, that is why I play the various scenario's in my mind to avoid losses and make money.
     
  65. Personally I always have a 5 point target for all intra-day trades. Depending on market conditions I may have to take 3 or 4 points, and I am not shy about taking a break even trades.
    Right now a break even stop is in for the 830 trade.
     
  66. Stop hit for break even trade. A 5 minute Bollinger Band was sold hard. Now will I re-enter, maybe. Looks like all they were going to be able to do was overlap the range of 830. This happens all the time, now up up and away? We'll see.
     
  67. If it breaks the 3x2 and Bollinger Band Moving Average on the 5 minute chart then it will likely
    go higher. Right now trend traders will keep selling it until they are taken out.
     
  68. Here is a real high risk trade, if it comes back up buy 2062.50 and if it takes out 2059.00, you're out.
     
  69. Has to break the 5 Minute 3x2 at a minimum to have any chance, which they just did, otherwise they will continue to sell it. All of this is based off of the 830 Sym Valley.
     
  70. Personally I would not allow this trade to become a loss now. I would move my stop up to break even. You are seeing selling from a 5 minute Bollinger Band Moving Average. If it goes above
    2067.50 take the 5 points.
     
  71. Out again on a break even. No more attempts to go long now. I'll wait until the next Sym Valley to see how it sets up at Noon.
     
  72. Moved my stop up too soon, but that happens. No big deal.
     
  73. Good selling opportunity at 78.00, you had to act fast, as soon as it popped above it.
     
  74. Wouldn't risk more than 4 to 6 ticks above 78.50.
     
  75. Has to break the 3x2 or it will likely get stopped out. Hasn't been able to do so but once again it may do the same thing we saw this morning. Stay up until 1230 and then reverse back down.
     
  76. Out with a loss. The way it curled down and then back up during 1200 30 Minute was more indicative of a buy instead of sell. 1230 is a Sym Peak so we will find out if that is the end of the rally for the day, but I will not attempt any more trades.
     
  77. Creating a Journal is a good thing. It helps you assess your data better and learn
    more about yourself.
     
  78. Will we put a top in at 1030 and go down until mid-afternoon? Q Peak 1000 1430...
    Q Valley 930 1230 1530...Sym Peak 900 1400 1600....Sym Valley 1030 1430
     
  79. I got short at 1030, filled at 99.25 today and the market did hit the 5 point target. The market did loose it's momentum and although trend traders tried to push it higher after 1030 I stayed with the trade as there was no indication of any serious buying. 1430 is the next time frame to look at, but I will not re-enter the market.
     
  80. This 1430 will be the catalyst for the reversal or a continuance to the downside. You can wait
    and let the market tell you or buy it if you believe this is the reversal.
     
  81. Crude 7/5/16...Sym Valley at 0900 is indicating a reversal and the form chart
    (which is not posted) is saying to the upside until 1300. ES 7/5/16 doesn't seem
    as if it will turn around until either 1330 or after 1530. 1030 in the ES will be
    interesting, you may get a reaction to the upside but not sure it will hold up.
     
  82. 30 Minute 0900 on the Crude Price Chart was an inside bar. So no surprise they take it down
    and break the Low of the 0830 30 Minute. Now how will this negative trend go until
    some buying comes into the market and starts reversing the trend. I still believe we're going up!
     
  83. This Crude Oil Sym Tangent chart is showing why we couldn't get above the 5min Bollinger Band Moving Average. Still strength to the downside, but this is about over with. So this may be the time to get long with a break and close above the 5Min 3x2. Has to get above the 3x2
    or they will keep selling.
     
  84. Total misread by me on Crude...The inside price bar at 0900 on the Sym Valley
    was a continuation, and not a buy. Of course anyone reading this would say duh
    no kidding. We did see the reversal and reaction on the ES 1030 Sym Valley.
     
  85. Form of the Price Chart ES 7/6/16. These charts can be inverted or true to form,
    but today they look very true to form.
     
  86. Crude Price Chart Form 7 6 16. The Sym Peaks are inverted and
    the Valleys are true to form.
     
  87. No need for commentary at this time...the description and the charts posted tell the story.
     
  88. Targets already hit on the ES short from 74.00 and Long on Crude from 46.16. All you
    have to do is view the charts and it should be obvious why a short was in order on the
    ES and long for Crude. I am done for the day.
     
  89. Bonds 7 6 16...Form of the Price Chart. Doesn't matter what market
    you are looking at, these charts showed the top and subsequent sell
    off in Bonds
     
  90. By placing a 3x2 Displaced (or moved forward, however you want to define it) Moving Average on your 30 Minute Price Chart (the average of 3 30 Minute Closes, moved forward 2 time frames in advance) and then look at the polynomial on the Form Chart. You will see the 3x2 matching the polynomial providing you a form of the 30 Minute Price Chart. This can be done for any time frame, but there is more bang for your buck, (leverage) in day trading.
     
  91. Once you know whether a price form chart is true to form to a price chart or and inverted form
    of the price chart, then you will know, based on the data points and polynomial
    whether you are going to highs or lows.
     
  92. ES 7 7 16...If you learn how to read the data points and polynomial of these two charts you
    will know when the market is going to Highs or Lows.
     
  93. Align the data points with the polynomial. For example....Just take the Sym Peaks chart. 0500
    was a High and the data point a Valley, afterwards Lows were made with the data point peaks and polynomial peak. But note the Valley at 0900 and we are back at Highs, but you know that because of how the chart is representing the data. Do the same for the Sym Valley chart and follow the swings all day long.
     
  94. I watched and watched this market today until 1500...that was to go long and the only trade I could justify. You knew the charts were true to form and more lows were coming after 1300
    and they did precisely that at the 1500 polynomial low. You are ticks away from hitting a 5 point target.
     
  95. Up or down, brilliant :D
     
  96. Later this evening I will post 4 Charts. The Q Peaks/Q Valley Charts and the Sym Peaks/Sym Valley Charts. The objective is to find the polynomial peak or polynomial valley on any of those 4 charts that is an outlier. An outlier is defined as the current polynomial peak or polynomial valley's price range you are observing that doesn't overlap the previous polynomial peak or polynomial valley's price range on the same chart. In other words if the price range of the current polynomial peak or polynomial valley you are observing overlaps the price range of the previous polynomial peak or polynomial valleys price range, it is not a true turning point. You may get a reaction but it isn't a true turning point. Attached is all four charts for today. Go through them as I just described and you will see the Highs and Lows for the day, and when overlaps occurred nullifying turning points.
     
  97. Note the Q Peaks/Q Valley Charts and the Sym Peaks/Sym Valley Charts with a 6th degree polynomial on them. The objective is to find the polynomial peak or polynomial valley on any of those 4 charts that is an outlier. An outlier is a turning point and is defined as the current polynomial peak or polynomial valley's price range you are observing that doesn't overlap the previous polynomial peak or polynomial valley's price range on the same chart. In other words if the price range of the current polynomial peak or polynomial valley you are observing overlaps the price range of the previous polynomial peak or polynomial valleys price range, it is not a true turning point. You may get a reaction but it isn't a true turning point. Find an outlier and you have the opportunity to make a great trade. Also, always wait until the end of the time frame you are observing or trying to define it as a turning point or not. These rules apply to any time frame you are trading.
     
  98. Notice how even in the night session this worked. 2330 was an outlier on the Q Valley chart, it did not overlap 2100 and they reversed it to the downside.
     
  99. Now look at Q Peak 0030 last night, from the day before (7 7 16) 1200 was the last Q Peak, 0030 last night, the High was 2089.25 and the low of 1200 yesterday was 2089.25...the same but the price range really wasn't overlapped and it was an outlier reversing the market. Q Peak of 0530 was an outlier it did not overlap the price range of the previous Q Peak at 0030, reversing the market. As they say and the beat goes on.
     
  100. 0730 Sym Peak was an outlier, beginning to see a reversal in a market that has been moving
    straight up for the past 2 hours.
     
  101. Love those reports, great volatility. When those occur you can cover your position and if they take it the opposite direction of your last turning point you can attempt to in this case sell it. I believe these reports for the most parts are pretty much meaningless and just add volatility. You always have to protect yourself in these markets because we
    all know anything can happen.
     
  102. They waited until the 835 Price High was broken and then some were willing to step
    in and sell it. Very high risk trade and the trend traders will be in there finding every
    reason to buy it. We'll see how it plays out. On the weekly data this was indicated to
    be a High in the market (7 8 16) as was June 24th a weekly low.
     
  103. After all the fanfare they sold it in the direction of the last turning point at 0730. 0930 is difficult to determine on the polynomial of the Q Valley and Sym Peak. You are likely to have an outlier in both cases because they are not overlapping a previous price range. This may give the trend traders the opportunity to buy it, as it could be a reversal. If they do and take it to new highs then 1000 will likely be an outlier on the Q Peaks.
     
  104. 1000 Q Peaks outlier and likely 1030 Sym Valley Outlier. Nothing after that for some time.
    When they are back to back like 1000 and 1030 are wait until the last one is completed.
     
  105. The reason why I mention Bollinger Bands and the 3x2 is because they are used
    by the general public and give you a way to manage your risk. Also they are effective in giving you a low risk entry. They also show support and resistance levels, trending markets, etc. The buy hit a 5 point target easily, you would be out of the market for the day or you can sell 1030 and go for another 5. Once I get 5 I'm done.
     
  106. Here was the problem with 1030, the selling took place inside of the 1030 30 Minute
    bar, it did not finish strong on it's price highs and when you see that you usually have
    a continuance. Just look at how the 5 minute bars played out inside of the 30 Minute
    1030 time frame. This happens often during strong trends or on a strong trending day,
    and you must be able to recognize it.
     
  107. 1500 may be the only selling opportunity today, and it is the last outlier. If it takes hold
    then you may capture 5 points down.
     
  108. You shouldn't take a loss if this trade was made...you know the market makers and trend traders are going to buy it the first opportunity they get, so they used the bottom 5 Minute Bollinger Band. Sometimes taking 3 points in these scenarios is best or put a break even stop in and let it ride until the close.
     
  109. With the exception of 1030, which was a continuance, all of the other outliers worked and reversed the market today. Check for yourself, including the night session. Enjoy your weekend.
     
  110. ES_7_11_16...Note how 0430,0500,0530 occurred on these charts, with 0530 indicating
    the final bottom which just so happen to hit the bottom Bollinger Band, perfect place to
    go long. If you know how to read ADX/-DMI/+DMI it was indicating a change in trend as
    well.
     
  111. Crude-7_11_16...Note how on 0001, 0100, 0130, and as late at 0230 on these charts were
    indicating a change. ADX/-DMI/+DMi indicated a trend change as well and a nice sell off occurred. Always trade with targets, never think it will just flow smoothly from one signal to
    the next. The market is about sequences and symmetry.
     
  112. On Crude...after the overnight sell off we went into a congestion phase after 0400. We had 0630, 0700 on Sym Peaks and Valleys. Q Peaks and Valleys come later at 0800 & 0830. So we complete symmetry with them, which is no surprise. -DMI/+DMI crossed over at 0700 and it takes off to the upside.
     
  113. It will be interesting in Crude to see if we get a reversal confirmation off of the 0800/0830 Q Peaks & Valleys. At this time I don't see any changes in the ES. Always have to watch the intraday openings closely.
     
  114. A reversal sell in Crude will not be confirmed at 0830, but that doesn't mean you won't get a reaction from it back down only to set up another buy. ES in a gridlock now.
     
  115. No overall change in trend at this time for Crude or ES since their early morning reversals. Crude may be signaling or close to a reversal buy on the 5 Minute data
     
  116. You have a 1030 Sym Valley on the ES at 1030. This is worth watching because it will likely
    determine if we continue on to the upside or not. If they sell it off into 1030 then it could
    be a reversal buy.
     
  117. You did get a reversal sell instead of buy on the 5 Min Crude, but it looks like
    it is setting up to be a buy at 1030 on the 30 Min. The market is overlapping our
    0800/0830 on Crude. I had a support level at 45.19, so we are in the ball park.
    At this point I would have to say the trend is still up on both Crude and ES.
     
  118. 1030 was a good opportunity to go long both in the ES and Crude. At least it would be a low risk trade.
     
  119. Crude 1130 Q Valley is challenging the 1030 Low. Q's are about completing symmetry
    and that is exactly what is happening. Crude is at a critical juncture. They could not
    get above the 3x2 on the 30 Minute, so for any continuance for a trend to the upside
    to occur a reversal is needed from 1130. ES still in it's up trend but being slowed down
    by Bollinger Band sellers.
     
  120. ES target was hit even with a late entry at 29.25. Crude 1030 Low still being challenged and
    a break even trade had to be taken.
     
  121. Crude kept rolling back over and more downside back to where the rally began early
    this morning. It will likely overlap the 44.78-44.67 area,
     
  122. ES Q Peak (1230)/Valley (1200) went sideways but never changed the trend. You
    are seeing a move back up on 1300 Q Peak in Crude. On the larger scale, Crude 30 Min
    is not seeing any change in this current downtrend. As mentioned before the break down after 1130 ended the up trend in Crude. Okay I am done for the day. I will only be posting the
    charts from here on. I have to focus on trading the data. I'll answer questions only during
    after hours or you can send me a message.
     
  123. Crude and ES charts. Q Peaks or Q Valleys are very good at showing
    you the form the price chart will take. Looking at Sym Peaks and Valleys to
    provide the turning points. 0830/0930 was the turning points on Crude
    this morning. I have 1145 as the next significant turning point on the ES.
     
  124. 1200/1230 on Crude, next turning point on Crude
     
  125. Well we came to a halt on the ES at 1145 but I expect they will still pop it and at least make
    a new high. Q Charts on the ES aren't really showing a sell off, more side ways action. Crude Sym Peak at 1030 turned it back up, there were 18 or so 5 Minute bars in a row of higher lows.
    You may get more of a pull back on Crude than the ES. Because of the impact of the Sym Peak your Q Charts on Crude are inverted now.
     
  126. ES is going to fulfill the 1230 Q Peak High and then it may run out of gas. Same with Crude it may fulfill the 1300 Q Peak before it stalls out and turns around but how many are going to be willing to sell these markets today? We'll find out, obviously the money
    was made to the upside, but I wouldn't stay long now.
     
  127. Neither market could break the 30 Minute 3x2, which supports their trends. So I would expect more highs now for the ES and Crude
     
  128. ES will still make new highs.
     
  129. ES and Crude both gave sell signals on their openings. See if you can determine why on the attached charts. Both targets were hit. The rest of signals for the ES are 1300/1500. Crude's next signals are 1030/1400/1530
     
  130. I always use the 3 x 2 displaced moving average to determine the position of the market. 0900 was above the 3 x 2 on Crude so it's reversal signal would be a sell and likewise for the ES at 0930 today, both were above their 3 x 2 displaced moving average. Keeps it simple.
     
  131. You can't define or put any kind of reasoning to some of those swings when they release
    the Crude Oil reports. I trade 10 lots when I trade and there is no way am I going to
    foolishly put myself in such jeopardy. Now after the first 5 minute bar is completed you
    can begin to realize the position of the market, where it may be going and then jump on board but not until then.
     
  132. ES 1300 appears to be a good long and possible 5 point trade. 1300 was mentioned in a prior post as a turning post. I fudged and gamed it, got long at 42.75. If it hits 48/48.25 I'm gone. I would expect it to go up until 1430/1500. If it takes out 41.25 I'm gone. 1500 should be your next reversal.
     
  133. With 1500 being a Q signal which are more about completing symmetry, they give the
    appearance now of wanting to complete symmetry back down. I'll stay with the original
    position and not change anything. But it won't take much for them to take me out. i
    could just take a break even but we still have time for this to work out but it could work
    out against me. Good trade management decisions have to be made all the time.
     
  134. Covered for a break even...a nice rally like that taken out by 1 bar down was not
    a good sign. I withstood the first test but it made no sense to stay in it the second time
    I was being challenged. It still has time work out but this trade is not for me. Crude 1400
    Low. Done for the day
     
  135. An aggressive trader would sell the ES here looking for new lows on the day. Q 1500 looks like it will be down.
     
  136. Don't tell me now they are going to make that run up after all. I'm not in it so I don't care.
    They don't make it easy and you do have to make decisions involving uncertainty.
     
  137. Well we have a Q 1500 High and they are reacting to the Q 1500 30 Minute Red Bar to take it higher but I don't think it will last and they will bring it back down. They did the same on Crude except 1400 was a 30 Minute Green Bar up and they took it down and made a new low but brought it back up to the 1530 time frame.
     
  138. ES_7_14_16 and Crude 7_14_16. Included is how to determine reversal signals. It's pretty simple with just a couple of rules. We've got signals occurring very soon! Q and Sym data has their own characteristics but that is not important for you to know at this point in time
     
  139. Crude was tricky because your signal bar 0830 to go short was an 30 Minute inside price bar. So they sell 0830 off 2 5 minute bars, then run it up until the opening at 0900 to establish a High to take care of the sideways aspects and then down it goes. You should be able to tell on the charts where the bottom will be in this Crude move.
     
  140. ES is a sell because of the 0900 signal bar. Since they are currently at the bottom
    of a 5 Minute Bollinger Band they may bounce it up, but who knows for sure. Anything at
    or above 2162.50 is probably a good sell. However they may just start selling it off
    after the open.
     
  141. Expecting Crude to bottom at 1100. The target for was achieved some time ago. Now you have Q Peaks and Valleys valid signals at 1100, 1130, & 1200. So don't be surprised at this market
    whipsawing back and forth, maybe even breaking the Lows during that time before going back up. No Change on the ES, expecting it to bottom at 1330. That's it for the day. Whatever you do always protect yourself in these markets.
     
  142. Crude 1100 has a Sym Valley Peak along with a Q Valley Valley. Since Q's are about completing symmetry and 1030 was a Low they reversed it back up during 1100. This is one of those characteristics of Q. We have 2 more Q aspects occurring so I still expect it to go back and forth for another hour, but we are bottoming in Crude and the sell off is basically over. ES finally broke down and I expect new Lows and a bottom at 1330. You do have a valid Q Valley on the ES at 1230 so expect some back and forth between 1200 and 1230.
     
  143. ES target hit and as predicted we have made new Lows for the day during 1330.
     
  144. Basically the lows are in now for the ES. You have a 1400 Q Peak that should take it back up and they will likely reverse off it. But for the most part I expect to start moving back up
     
  145. Just hit the second 5 point target for the ES today. Bought at 53.75 and just covered my long and just covered at 59.00. Done for the day. Everything was forecast and predicted in advance,
    including the Crude Oil moves.
     
  146. These 4 charts for each market will show you the swings, and what time the High and Low for the day will occur. You begin with Sym Peaks and Valleys, then work your way to the Q Peaks and Valleys. Sym data is point to point, whereas Q data is about completing symmetry. Enjoy your day!
     
  147. Target already hit in ES. 0900/0930 Adjacent-Sym Peak Valley at 0900 and Sym Valley Peak at 0930. Because they were at a High, adjacent to each other, you wait until 0930 and reverse. Now you can find the bottom of this move.
     
  148. Crude Oil...both Sym Peak Valley and Sym Valley Peak were valid signals at 0930. But look at what was before and after that time. Q data at 0900, 1030, and still 1130 to come which is the reason for the whipsaws back and forth. No thanks. I believe it is a sell but you really didn't want to jump in on that until all the whipsaws are over and because 1130 could still end up at a High.
     
  149. Sym Valley Peak at 0600 in Crude tells the story and was clear sailing until 0900 Q data came into play. Always look at the night sessions as they tip your hand as where the position of the market is in relation to the data.
     
  150. Crude 1100 High 30 minute price bar and 1130 Q Valley Low, now the reaction off the 1130 Low, back at the 0930 Sym Peak and Valley price level. I think it should hit the 3 x 2 at 46.00 reverse and go back down until 1330.
     
  151. Strong reaction off of the 1130 Q...Critical point for Crude now, if they can't bring it back under 46.00 they are likely to continue up until 1330. Q's are always swinging the market back and forth because they effect the price bar before them and complete symmetry on the time frame they occur, also reactions like the one you just saw is not uncommon.
     
  152. Crude pretty much a dud today, too many Q swings to offset any possible follow through. Making a Low 20 cents lower from the original signal with all kinds of risks is not hardly what I would call a good trade. Done for the day. ES has done exactly what the data said it would.
     
  153. By the way today is the top on the Daily for the S&P...going down until July 27th or July 28th.
     
  154. Here are the charts for the ES Daily from 4/4 to 7/1/16. They show the tops and bottoms throughout these 4 charts. Price in itself does not determine whether the market is going up or down, it is just the medium of exchange, or the result of an exchange. The market moves up or down based on Power Laws of sequences and symmetry. In 2008 I submitted my forecast to Benoit Mandelbrot. He was intrigued enough and asked me to write a paper. Unfortunately I had to decline to preserve the integrity of my work. I have the email from Eva his secretary and I'm sure the email is still on some Yale server somewhere. Anyway here are the 4 charts and of course I have a forecast from 7/4 to 9/30/16 on the ES Daily. Still with this information there
    is a learning curve to understanding it, but it's not hard. The biggest challenge for yourself is to remove your ideas or information about how the markets really work.
     
  155. The red bar down on 7/15 for the Daily is looking more like a reversal buy now. If this be the case then we go up until 7/27 or 7/28, instead of selling off until then. We'll know soon enough by the end of 7/18. Either way what direction we decide to go will continue until the 27th or 28th.
     
  156. Crude has an interesting Sym Chart...A flat line polynomial, which usually means 1 direction.
     
  157. They can't make up their mind on the ES. Crude finally is trending in 1 direction at this time. I have other commitments out of town today so I am only posting the ES 4 Charts. Looking choppy for the most part. You may get a run after 1230/1300
     
  158. ES 7/19/16...We are going to have a nice trend emerge this afternoon. It's pretty obvious from the charts.
     
  159. I believe our Lows will happen during 1330 or 1400, then we should begin an uptrend. We may hit the lower Bollinger Band. You haven't seen one of the distance charts before.
     
  160. What a lame market. Data indicated we should have got a better move but we haven't. Going to stay long unless it breaks 54.00 or if it goes above 58.50 I will have hit my 5 point target and I will be out.
     
  161. Stop to 55.50...too much work not to take something home from this trade.
     
  162. 5 Point target hit, ended up following through nicely.
     
  163. I believe we are about finished with this correction and more upside is in store, more than likely until Noon.
     
  164. Completely wrong on that call. Couldn't get back above 0830 and instead of 0830 turning the market it was the turning point for the continuance.
     
  165. So do you still believe we have topped on the daily? A few posts back you mentioned until late July, I felt the continuation call you made this morning was not in line with the daily.
     
  166. I didn't see a change in trend in the ES today from yesterdays Lows at 1330/1400. It's how they went about it. Crude was straightforward with a reversal at 1000. On the ES Daily 7/15 is going to end up being what appears to be a red bar reversal back to the upside. Here is the Crude chart for today. Looking like we go up until the 28th on the ES.
     
  167. ES is messy once again. You better be sharp and know what you're doing to trade it today. I've written an equation to make this chart easier to use instead of just visually seeing the swings or changes in trend. With the new equation I have the swings at 0530 0800 0900 1030 1230 1500.
     
  168. The bump up after 1030 involved a Q, it wasn't going above 68.50, you wanted to stay short. 0900 was your Low 1030 a pathetic High and now our 1230 Low. Another Q is involved at 1330 so they could take it down more but I wouldn't think much more. Not an easy day with these kind of swings.
     
  169. They sold that 1330 Q...gave back my profits for the day. Did not expect that to happen. I still have 1500 as a High. It may just overlap the 1230 Low.
     
  170. I am getting a different dynamic with applying the equation I wrote, but applying the equation is necessary in order to simplify reading the Q and Sym distance charts. Already looking forward to tomorrow. Remember whatever you do always protect yourself in these markets!
     
  171. This chart is true to form with one and only one caveat. At your peaks and valleys it's N+2. For example 0700 is a valley add +2 to get the actual turning point Low of 0800. 0430 was a peak add +2 and look at 0530 you have your High. This continues for the entire chart. This makes it easy to determine turning points, also it lets you see trends, the best of both worlds for a trader.
     
  172. Crude Oil 7/22/16. Not hard to see why they sold it this morning. Same application as provided in the ES Chart.
     
  173. The 30 minute data in the provided ES chart says you would be at price Highs during the 1100 30 minute price bar. They crushed Crude but look at the chart, it was indicated that 0900 would be a price High to a 1100 price Low. Modeling non-linear data is not easy but you can remove the complexities of it and create a nice linear graph to follow the market.
     
  174. ES tops out at 1430, but you may get a rally after 1600, Crude bottoms at 1330.
     
  175. On Monday before the intraday session begins I will indicate where the Price Highs and Lows will be for the ES and Crude. Did you like that 1410 bar on Crude? Price action folks and trend traders kept pushing it down but it's time was way past due to continue down and so that is what happens.
     
  176. Based on the ES and Crude Charts, I believe both will be up on Monday. I decided not to attempt to go into detail and describe all the turns because I realize it's not necessary. If I know in advance that a market is going to be up for the day I should be able to profit from it. The charts are inverted. The red lines are 1 Standard Deviation Lines and if data points are above or below the Standard Deviation lines, then the data points will be indicating a price inversion, in other words they will be inverted too.
     
  177. Interdim, I do appreciate what you are doing, but there are somethings you have described that make this thread so hard to follow. The crude call was a good one, I was also in that trade for other reasons, ie. the baker hughes rig count number came out and was extremely bearish, however it only caused price to move lower by about 12 cents. That was my indication that crude was done selling, and I got long very close to where you made your call.

    So, back to my original sentence. You mentioned the charts are inverted - I take this to mean, when they move higher it indicates price will move lower.

    Then you go on to mention the 1SD lines, and if the data points move beyond them, it indicates a further inversion. I have no idea what to make of that.
     
  178. Thank you Trackstar. Yes you are correct in saying when the data point line on the chart, (not the polynomial line) is moving higher, price will be moving lower with the opposite being true, with the data point line moving lower, prices will be moving higher. When the data point line crosses the Red Line (1 Standard Deviation) the data point line becomes true to form, then the data point line below the lower Red Line mean price lows and if the data point line is above the higher Red Line means actual price highs. Hope this clears this up for you and I am trying to simplify how to read the charts. I can do this for any market or time frame. If you would like for me to send you a chart of other markets or time frames let me know. The more you see this the easier it becomes.
     
  179. What I just described to Trackstar just happened in the Crude Oil market during 2130 on the chart and we began moving down.
     
  180. How about a daily chart of ES, CL, HG, GC, and ZB? Lets see if we can get a macro path.
     
  181. Here is what I am recognizing about the charts I posted. Instead of them telling you the trend they are showing you all of the price swings keying off of the peaks and valleys of those charts. Even with Crude's sell off this morning, look at how it would reverse off of the counter move at the time of the peak or valley to continue the trend down. It did that until 0930. The ES reversed off 0830 and has continued down
     
  182. I predicted yesterday would be up and obviously I was wrong. However the charts I posted yesterday and today will tell you when turning point Highs and Lows will occur. No need for the Red Line. Here is a very simple way to look at these charts. A complete cycle High to Low or Low to High occurs on these charts from Peak to Peak or Valley to Valley. Go back and look at yesterdays charts and follow today and you will see when the significant turns will occur.
     
  183. 0900 Peak on Crude, looked like the perfect buy.
     
  184. The reason why it looked like the perfect buy was because the Peak to Peak and Valley to Valley Highs to Lows were completed.
     
  185. Crude should go up until 1230, with a correction around 1100.
     
  186. ES was tricky, chart wise it was hard to say which way it would go but one thing you did know was 0830 was the pivot for the move. A break above it after the open was a long or a breakdown below it was a sell. This move goes up until 1330, with a correction around 1030 or so
     
  187. They sold the 1030 ES Peak and broke the 0830 Low this market could go down now until 1400, Peak to Peak, instead of the Valley to Valley. Crude corrected at 1100 as expected and should resume it's move up until 1230. The dynamic changed on the ES. Always protect yourself at all times in these markets.
     
  188. The complexities are great in these markets but the charts I posted the past few days simplify them. The market will go either Peak to Peak or Valley to Valley, and if anything gets out of line be suspect, because it may signal a change in how the market will trade. In the ES I thought 0830 should have been a sell but they took off to the races, but I became suspect again when 1030 didn't really correct like 1100 did in Crude. In Crude you essentially had 2 great buys, one at 0900 and 1100 with your risks just a matter of a few ticks.
     
  189. If the ES breaks above 64.25 ( the Low of the 30 Minute 1030 price bar) then the short position is in jeopardy and they could continue up until 1330, otherwise it will stay down until 1400. You would place a break even stop on that 2nd Crude trade.
     
  190. No clear path on the ES until after 1500, so I expect it will swing back and forth.
     
  191. We get above 62.00 and it may run, that was an easy reversal to take at 1500 with only a few ticks to risk.
     
  192. When I take a trade late in the day I never risk much because there's not enough time to make another trade. Right now if there are enough sellers at the 5 minute upper Bollinger Band to break the 1500 Low by more than 2 ticks I don't want it. But I understand by folks selling it at the upper band as they did, widens the band and if they push it back up there is more room to run to the upside with fewer willing to sell it again.
     
  193. Break even stop now at 60.50 that covers my commission too, not going to play the cat and mouse game.
     
  194. Target 4 points, 64.50 so we have to see 65.00 to have a chance to get it.
     
  195. Not changing anything, it either hits the target, stops me out me for a break even or I cover just before the close.
     
  196. Out at 63.00
     
  197. Appears the ES will trend up today until 1230/1330?
     
  198. Obviously I got the direction of the trend wrong, but at this stage it's not important because of what I discovered between these 2 charts. When the polynomials of these 2 charts are moving in the same direction you have a trend, when they are not the market swings back and forth.
     
  199. So the challenge is to determine when and what data point(s) do the polynomials begin to move in the same direction and when they do not. Looks as if the polynomials stop moving in the same direction around 1130 or 1200.
     
  200. This current trending down move has ran out of gas. You will see another trending move between 1330/1400 until 1500, probably not of the same magnitude as this one. Trend traders will keep selling this current move until you prove them wrong, but it's about over now.
     
  201. Emanuel Derman on Uncertainty

    “….In physics you have absolute values. If you want to shoot a rocket to the moon, you can use Newton's laws and the gravitational constant. In finance you can't make absolute predictions. You try to figure out the value of something by relating it to the value of something more simple…”

    Thought I would toss that in...Smile. Market jumped 2 points, trend traders immediately sold it but will they succeed in keeping it down? Going to be harder for them to do so.

    Back to Derman's comments, keeping this simple has always been an objective. I can tell and come pretty close to determining when 2 polynomials are going in the same direction or not, and at about what data point in time they begin or end going in the same direction or not.
     
  202. Going up until August 2nd or 5th now. Had to penetrate 7/19's low and they didn't get it done with that announcement.
     
  203. I have everything mapped out now on the ES Daily through 9/30. When the the polynomials line up is when you will see one direction, and we have some great moves coming.
     
  204. Looks like they are going to challenge the low from yesterday. Nothing lines up today with the polynomials, they oppose each other for the entire day. So today I will be on the sidelines.
     
  205. After examining multiple charts that are created each and every day, I would say 1030/1100 will be a crucial turn until 1400.
     
  206. The Low was put in at 1100. Should continue up until 1400.
     
  207. Whenever I see the polynomials opposing each other in the charts I posted it tells me that a good trend is not likely to develop. My bias is still to the upside. I did finally buy it at 57.00 during the 1230 retrace and if they get through the 5 Minute Bollinger Band Moving Average I might hit my target of 5 points. I already have a break even stop at 57.00, so they have to break the 1330 30 minute low of 57.25 to take me out. You can easily see why 1230 was a retrace in the charts.
     
  208. I meant the 30 minute Bollinger Band Moving Average, not the 5 minute.
     
  209. I took 2 points and covered. It's wrestling the 5Min upper Bollinger Band and 30 Minute Moving Average Bollinger Band
     
  210. The times I'm looking to reverse off of are 1000 1100 1330 1500, with 1000 having more power.
     
  211. Long at 60.75
     
  212. Out at 58.25
     
  213. Don't know what I was thinking there, I should have been a seller. But here's the problem with today, you have several swings again. I will wait and see where were at by 1100.
     
  214. Short at 66.25
     
  215. Stop at 68.75
     
  216. I saw the 2 swings coming but it's looking like I executed both of them incorrectly.
     
  217. ES 8/1/16...No interpretation needed. High Low Price Reflections. My best yet.
     
  218. Crude_8_1_16_High_Low_Price_Reflections. Also I am working with a chart that provides a time of when to buy or sell. Like I said this is my best work yet.
     
  219. The Timing charts have worked like clockwork today and the Price Reflection charts have been outstanding. I will post the Timing Charts along with the Price Reflection Charts tomorrow.
     
  220. ES_8_2_16_High_Low_Price_Reflections
     
  221. Nice 14 point sell off from the top to the bottom while the Low Price Reflections were showing strength and dominance. Now will the High Price Reflections take hold, or will prices go sideways like they did in Crude Oil yesterday?
     
  222. This price chart shows how valuable the 3x2 Displaced Moving Average is and how it keeps me out of trouble.
     
  223. It's obvious with these Price Reflection Charts that the breadth or width of the data of the Highs or Lows Price Reflection shows the dominance or strength of them. Between 0830 and 1200 today the Lows Price Reflection breadth or width was great or greater than the Highs. If you look at the other charts you will see the same aspect, the greater breadth or width, having dominance during those times. I could not find a satisfactory timing tool in the data so I have to defer to the 3x2 (DMA) Displaced Moving Average. The 3x2 DMA keeps you out of trouble while providing the opportunity to enter and be a part of a big move.
     
  224. Also if you have a great breadth or width of the Price Reflections showing weakness as you do in the Low Price Reflections now, between 1130 and 1500 that will be an indication of Higher Prices in this instance. So you have to look for both.
     
  225. We touched the 3x2 on the 30 Minute, but if you look at the Low Prices Reflection it shows at 1300/1330 some strength during this time and of course with the trend being down it was easy to sell it when it hit the 3x2.
     
  226. Okay the best part of the trading day is over. It may go sideways to up for a little while and if you look at the charts you can see why. I'm done for the day.
     
  227. Nice move up but it will fizzle now and everyone will be slugging it out for the rest of the day, or they may move it back down. The best way to look at the charts I post is horizontally, not vertically. We are 'trained' to look at these charts vertically but you don't want to do that with the Price Reflection Charts.
     
  228. ES and Crude markets for 8_3_16.
     
  229. I like Crude to the upside after the 1030 report comes out. ES looks favorable to the upside until we get into the afternoon, whereas toward the end of the day some selling will come in. Use the 3x2 to gauge the current position of the market and I also use a 30x20 longer term displaced moving average. Bollinger Bands are a good tool too.
     
  230. ES 5 Point Target hit.
     
  231. Love it when they take it the wrong way off a report and of course I am referring to Crude Oil. That was vicious as usual. I still expect it to go up as stated earlier. The breadth, width, or large area on the Price Reflection Charts show the strength or weakness of High Prices or Low Prices.
     
  232. The ES is getting interesting as the Low Prices Reflections breadth begins to take over after 1230. We have a 2158.00 as the overhead price level on the Bollinger Band Moving Average on the Daily. Not sure they will make it to that price level, but keep it in mind, nothings says that they can't run it up there. I believe being long the ES from here on will be tough and not the position you want to be in and we're going to see some selling coming into the ES this afternoon. Crude Oil market has been great and no need to say anymore about it.
     
  233. The 3x2 on the ES 30 minute was 53.25 for this 1300 time frame and they got the bounce off of it, so 2158 is not unrealistic. Like I said before the 3x2 keeps me out of trouble, but I still expect the sellers to overtake the market this afternoon.
     
  234. Finally got it to break down and sell off some. I have a break even stop in now with a target of 5 points at 49.75. Some will still try to revive the uptrend from earlier in the day, there's plenty of time left. But I am not going to hang in there and try to sell it again if they take me out. Took more patience for this one to happen but just use the 3x2 and let it be your guide. What you got going on now is a bounce off of the 30 Minute Bollinger Band Moving Average, which is expected. There's really nothing else I need to post for today with one exception, and that is always protect yourself in these markets.
     
  235. I got taken out and all we did was put in a symmetry low. Now that they got it going back up will they continue and go for 2158.00. Looking that way.
     
  236. Don't tell me that's best you can do is a double top and no new highs for the day? Come on folks if you're going to take out the shorts at least go make new highs and hit 2158. I do find some humor in playing these markets.
     
  237. ES and Crude markets for 8/4/16. It's obvious what Crude Oil is going to do. You should be able to determine that from the attached charts. ES was tricky this morning, when the Low Price Reflections were dominant it went sideways. Always recognize when that is happening it tells you what will eventually happen and we just saw that during the 0700 30 minutes price bar. I don't like the ES market, it's not very clear at this time, but Crude Oil is so that is what I will trade.
     
  238. Here is another look at the ES with 2 charts that you read vertically and both are inverted. So based on these the ES is a buy on the open and runs up until 1030 then makes a Low between 1230 and 1330.
     
  239. The ES Low was made at 1030 and now it will make it's High at 1230/1300. Just the opposite of what I originally thought. I think the run up in Crude is over and it will start going back down or maybe it just goes sideways. The problem with Crude is that is has all of this upside momentum that has to be tamed.
     
  240. Crude would have to break 41.36 or the 3x2 before you could consider a short. It's just too strong otherwise and I know better.
     
  241. I missed the long in Crude and not going to consider a short in Crude anymore. However I will consider shorting the ES between 1230/1300
     
  242. In the same position as I was yesterday in the ES. They will try to bring this market back up but not sure they will get the job done but there is plenty of time left. Target is 56.50 with a break even stop in now.
     
  243. No post today, taking a long weekend.
     
  244. This thread will continue in the future with significant improvements to make it easy for you to follow. Hope all is well.
     
  245. It appears that a significant trend is about to embrace Crude Oil and will last for 6 months to the downside.
     
  246. Postings will be random until mid-February. The entire database of data will not be available until then.
     
  247. This ES chart (and one other) tells me we are going to trend upward on Friday. A double, triple, or wipe out on the SPY's 227 calls on expiration day? Crude Oil looks like a choppy downward move for 6 months. Already 50,000 + open interest on 9.5 USO July Puts? All of these charts are prepared in advance for any move and they enable one to place themselves in a good position.
     
  248. Are you out of your mind? Choppy downward move over next six months? Look at the past 6 months of it. See what it did. 6 months ago what did it do, where is it now and what did it do in the meanwhile?
     
  249. Looks like today is the day of reckoning for crude oil. 52 being the line in the sand support for the bulls. I attached the price structure I see being significant - a two day sell off could lead us below 50. If crude breaks, that was a hell of a call interdim.

    I would change my view if we close above 53.50 today.
     
  250. This is the smartest thread on ET.
     
  251. For what it's worth I believe it is time for a correction in the ES. The chart shows it topping on 3/1. Crude will continue to chop and eventually drop.
     
  252. Whether it be by accident or observation one of the most gratifying rewards of data modeling is to discover that aspect that reveals something very significant. In this case of this data it was the flat line slope occurring simultaneously in Q and Sym during a certain time frame. In the chart below it occurred on 2/28 and 3/1. If you look for it in the recent ES Daily posted you would find (if you created it during that time frame) it occurred between February 1st and March 1st, a flat line slope occurring on both Q and Sym. This indicates a strong directional move and if you know how to read the charts it tells you what direction.
     
  253. Any price penetration of the close on March 1st in Crude and you no longer want to be short in that market. The same would be true in the ES. You always have to put yourself in a good position and protect yourself.
     
  254. Was wondering if Crude was ever going to take a tumble, took awhile but they finally
    crushed it.
     
  255. Here is the 30 Minute for the ES on 3/9 & 3/10. Having 2 days of intraday forecast
    puts one in a great position to play option expiration's. It's obvious where you would have bought your SPY's today for tomorrow's expiration.
     
  256. Here is a coffee chart, which to most won't be of much interest. This is a chart that when data is merged you will see some inversion aspects to it. But there is a reason for it and that is when the Sequences and Symmetrical charts slopes are opposite. Knowing this you can learn how to read the single chart posted here. I expect coffee to take off again to the upside, but we could still see it shake out until the 20th.
     
  257. Here is the chart for the 3/15 SPX Option Expiration play for 3/14 and 3/15. I'm not interested because the data did not give me a 2 day trend. It will chop and should follow the polynomial fairly well because of the similar slopes of the Sequences and Symmetry charts, which are not posted here. The chart posted is just a form of what the price chart should look like over 2 days.
     
  258. This ES chart here told me as previously mentioned a top would be on 3/1 and now we can look for a bounce after a 3/23 low. This isn't very hard to see on this chart. A new forecast has to be made before any further assessments can be made.
     
  259. Should have stayed short but oh well that's life in trading. Took it on the chin on this trade got off to a good start in coffee but they slammed it back down but easily covered without getting hurt. Did well in Crude, but time to take a week off. New forecast will begin on April 3rd.
     
  260. ES Daily Chart from 4/3 to 6/30...You will see the swings back and forth as indicated on the chart until 5/25. After 5/25 the market will make a move that will last until June 30, or likely around the 4th of July. Sometime in May or June more specifics will begin to be revealed about not only timing but price levels in these forecast.
     
  261. Not the time to enter new sell orders, the market will come back up for 2 or maybe 3 days
    until the 19th.
     
  262. They will crush the market on Thursday, May 4th.
     
  263. Disappointing so far, we got a top to bottom drop of 14 points but that's nothing to write home about, not that great. When I ran the 30 minute data which I will post later it showed a top at 530 am in the overnight session. But they have been buying the strong sell offs so I don't expect much else to develop. Some thought I was crazy saying Crude would drop from January until June and I expect a bottom around June 13th, with a possibility of it extending until the end of June or July 4th. Here's the deal I have some scientific data that reveals certain aspects about the market that can be forecast in advance. But I have uncovered more such data recently and so I am taking my time putting it all together.
     
  264. 30 Minute Charts for 5/3 & 5/4. I'll post the charts for tomorrow 5/5.
     
  265. ES 30 Minute 5/5
     
  266. Crude and the ES for the next 2 days. Q charts provide a mirror image of what the actual price chart will look like. Sym (Peaks) will indicated the swings, just align the average (red line peak) with the actual data point peak and watch the swings. It's pretty simple once you start watching them.
     
  267. At this time all I can refer you to is the post made on April 9th. The best is yet to come.
     
  268. The weekly on Crude Oil gave a buy on Friday, the Daily data says we could still go lower until the 30th. Either way we are going to see the Crude Oil market start making a turn to the upside.
     
  269. No I am not out of my mind after all am I?
     
  270. Outside of the Crude Oil Daily saying we could still shake out and go lower into next week, The Weekly Crude Oil chart says we will go up until mid-September, until the week ending on 9/15/17.
     
  271. The squeeze or the dribble in the S&P that we have seen for so long, with a pop or drop here or there will change. The S&P will make a significant move in August.
     
  272. Attached is a volatility chart for the ES Daily from 7/3 to 9/29. This chart can be created and forecast for any market or time frame. This chart only indicates when volatility will occur. Even though I do have charts that will show when price Highs and Lows will occur this chart does not show direction, only when volatility will increase or decrease.
     
  273. When I began using a new data set this was the forecast generated for the 2017 ES Weekly. It has been remarkably accurate. I am getting the same results using the new data set for intraday and daily forecast. We'll see how well it reflects the market for the rest of 2017.

    upload_2017-8-12_9-17-24.png
     
  274. Euro Daily from 7/3 to 9/29...Really not much to say other than for you to follow along. There is another chart I would like to post but until one learns more about data modeling it may be harder to follow and understand. Its results shows segments of trends, whereas this chart is straightforward.

    upload_2017-8-13_9-26-4.png
     
  275. ES 30 minute intraday for 8/14 (Mon) & 8/15 (Tues)

    upload_2017-8-13_20-44-27.png
     
  276. Crude Oil Daily...7/3 to 9/29

    upload_2017-8-13_21-20-28.png
     
  277. With the new data set I wanted to see what the data would have revealed in a strong trending market. So I used the Euro FX data through 2013 to do the forecast for 2014. In other words I started the forecast in the first week in 2014 (just like I did in the ES Weekly 2017 forecast) but this time I used 2 algorithms, one that I used to create all of the forecast previously and another algorithm Notice how the chart1 captures the high of the year on a polynomial peak, chart2 reflects the high on a polynomial peak as well but just a little earlier but also chart2 indicates exact the high of the year 5/9 on a data point.

    upload_2017-8-15_22-11-27.png upload_2017-8-15_22-11-57.png
     
  278. Here are two separate charts for IBM in 2017. Certain charts have characteristics that reveal whether a market will be trending or not, in this case QRR. Other charts are used for timing the turns such as the HRR chart. QRR says IBM will trend from around February/March until September. HRR times the top and other subsequent turns, but you did not want to be buying at any time because QRR was indicating a long trend occurring in 2017, and in this case it was down.

    upload_2017-8-26_22-19-35.png upload_2017-8-26_22-19-54.png
     
  279. Some action for the ES over the next two days, 8/28 and 8/29

    upload_2017-8-27_18-34-10.png upload_2017-8-27_18-34-29.png
     
  280. QRR said 2200, 0500, and HRR 0430. Now we only have to assess will they reverse the market off of the 0900 and then at 1330, all est times. HRR doesn't come into play until 1630/1700. simple to follow this way. But as one's understanding grows then you can add other elements or charts.
     
  281. Today was obviously a good day...however there is more work to do. The question is how will the market respond to the different 'signals' between QRR and HRR? For example tomorrow QRR is showing a trending market after 8am and that doesn't change until 1700. But HRR is showing some form of reversal mid-day. My question is will the HRR signal align itself in such a way to keep the trend aspect of QRR intact? There is one aspect about this business of trading that you must always adhere to and that is protect yourself at all times. This cannot be stressed enough and you must do so in wise manner. More about that at another time.
     
  282. Before departing for a long holiday weekend I wanted to post the QRR and HRR charts again. Also I wanted to include charts that reveal High and Low Prices. Here is a brief explanation of them. The length of the moves of QRR are indicated by the breadth, not the amplitude. Also the strength of High Prices and Low Prices in their charts, are indicated by their breadth, not amplitude. HRR, the weakest link of the data, you can just follow along with the polynomial. This is for the next 2 days (August 31st and September 1st) of 30 minute data.

    upload_2017-8-31_7-55-55.png upload_2017-8-31_7-56-18.png upload_2017-8-31_7-56-56.png upload_2017-8-31_7-57-18.png
     
  283. All of the charts above are for the ES. Have a safe and enjoyable holiday!
     
  284. Here are my 2 favorite charts, QRR and MRR. Both have unique features. More about their features at a later time but both charts are saying the same thing. I expect the Euro to continue to trend up until September 14th before any kind of significant correction.

    upload_2017-9-3_12-31-11.png upload_2017-9-3_12-31-55.png
     
  285. Gold is close to topping out, it may top out this week.

    upload_2017-9-4_8-32-6.png
     
  286. After reassessing the Euro, it's quite possible the High is in for now. Gold's High is coming very soon, very likely this week. I've decided to just utilize the QRR charts from here on. More data and more charts are not a solution, they will ultimately conflict and confuse one another.
     
  287. Wheat in this chart is getting a bounce from the data point from August 29/30. Using Polynomials can be a great tool for organizing such random, chaotic data, but you have to be careful about their use. So in this case will the market go up now until September 18th before heading south again?

    upload_2017-9-4_9-40-43.png
     
  288. US 30 Year Bonds...This is a tough call. Will they race them back up until 6th, or stretch it out until the 11th of September, then sell them off? Or will they continue down and try to overlap the the original buy signal in July? I think they will be take them back up, but like anything in this business you always have to protect yourself.

    upload_2017-9-4_13-13-59.png
     
  289. QRR charts are great for showing you entire moves...In using the polynomial they should be read from Valley to Valley from Price High to Price Low or Price Low to Price High. But you should always be aware of data points at or near 0. The data point peaks of the QRR charts many times will indicate volatility surges or reversals. Look at the peaks of 8/3, 8/8, and 8/11 on the most recently posted Bond chart. However the entire move from High to Low or Low to High are encompassed from Valley to Valley. This keeps everything fairly simple and straightforward.
     
  290. Charts for 30Min data for Crude & ES on 9/5 & 9/6. Already know what to expect for Crude tomorrow, ES will behave differently and trend more during the day tomorrow. You can determine where to take it next.

    upload_2017-9-4_21-4-15.png upload_2017-9-4_21-6-10.png
     
  291. ES Monday 9/11...In this case you should before you call it a day, what tomorrow will bring.

    upload_2017-9-10_14-37-26.png
     
  292. If you hadn't noticed yet, the chart posted above is inverted, and when you look at the chart in this post it will make more sense. By changing one variable in a data set a stable distribution was created for all charts. However depending what time frame you are looking at their initial output may be inverted. Volatility can be determined or forecast from a non-stable distribution, which is why I chose to post this data today from another data set.

    upload_2017-9-11_7-18-53.png
     
  293. Volatility will not be near what it was yesterday. These charts I am posting are not necessarily an an indication of the magnitude of any given move, they will show you price chart form, or be close to the tops or bottoms. This ES chart is true to form.

    upload_2017-9-12_7-51-53.png
     
  294. A flat line slope for a certain chart has always indicated the market will come back and overlap the beginning of the forecast. Hopefully you can appreciate the significance and how valuable this information is. Also as previously mentioned a certain chart near or at zero reveals turning points. Here is an example of both situations perfectly played out in the GBP_EUR chart.

    upload_2017-9-17_9-24-19.png upload_2017-9-17_9-24-41.png upload_2017-9-17_9-31-14.png
     
  295. Here are the ES Daily charts that are the same two charts in the previous post of the GBP_EUR charts. Notice the flat line slope which indicates at some point it will overlap the beginning of the forecast which it did in mid-August. Also it showed reversals on 7/12, 8/7, 8/15, and 9/12, which 9/11 showed it would be a strong volatility day as did 7/12. Nothing wrong with using other indicators with this data as I do with Keltner and Bollinger Bands showing when impending volatility is getting ready to happen. Also there are other features in these charts that show when strong volatility is going to occur.

    upload_2017-9-17_19-40-46.png upload_2017-9-17_19-41-31.png upload_2017-9-17_19-49-10.png
     
  296. ES 30 Minute chart for the next two days. A flat line slope on QR indicates that the Q chart is the 'zero' chart, and where the significant valleys are is when the major turns will occur. Also the market will revisit the 2503.00 close of today, so the farther away it goes the better because the market will overlap that price again. As usual the FOMC events do not change anything. It is expected that Thursday 9/21 is when the greatest volatility will occur.

    upload_2017-9-18_23-15-57.png upload_2017-9-18_23-16-19.png
     
  297. Check these days out…7/11, 8/4, 8/15, 8/17, 9/4, 9/11, 9/21. These days all have the same characteristic. They are the day before the significant distance increases between data points. Now go look at the price chart for these days. This is for the ES forecast. Next weekend a new forecast of this chart will be created for 10/2/17 through 12/29/2017.

    upload_2017-9-21_23-29-12.png
     
  298. Here was the past 2 days of 30 Min bars forecast from for the ES chart. In this chart all you had to do was follow the data points from a low to high to a high back to a low. Also in this case the polynomial showed you the general form of the price chart. The actual price chart is included.

    upload_2017-9-23_20-28-51.png upload_2017-9-23_20-29-16.png
     
  299. This is a 30 Minute chart of the ES for the next two days, Monday 9/25 and Tuesday 9/26. It is same type of chart as the previous one posted for 9/21 and 9/22. Maybe you can determine from the data points what the price swings will be as outlined in that previous post?

    upload_2017-9-24_8-51-32.png
     
  300. Once again the polynomial is showing you the price chart form and moves are happening off of certain data points. This is only going to get better as further developments are coming soon.
     
  301. ES 30 Minute for 9/27 and 9/28

    upload_2017-9-26_23-13-16.png
     
  302. ES 30 Minute Chart for Friday 9/29 and Monday 10/2.

    upload_2017-9-28_22-35-18.png
     
  303. Here we are at the end of another quarter. Several Daily forecast will be posted over the weekend for the rest of the year, through 12/29/2017. Also in the next 4 to 6 weeks price objectives will start being introduced along with specific buys and sells.
     
  304. ES will top out on 10/6 or 10/9 and the market will actually sell off until 10/20. These charts are very good at showing you the swings from High to Low, Low to High. One keys off the low valley data points and the other the high peak data points, pretty simple.

    upload_2017-10-1_18-58-28.png upload_2017-10-1_18-59-0.png
     
  305. There is a possibility of the market hitting somewhere between 36 and 38 today. October 4th was an overlap and intersection day between regressions. You definitely want a trailing stop just below 29 on the Daily.
     
  306. I don't have es data anymore. How accurate are these charts?
     
  307. This chart is excellent in showing you when strong directional moves are going to occur and for how long. You will begin to see a strong move happening in the ES toward the end of October and lasting until the first week of December. This can be done for any time frame or market. In December Buys or Sells will begin to appear on these types of charts so you will know direction as well.

    upload_2017-10-8_16-14-14.png
     
  308. This is the ES for Monday and Tuesday (10/9, 10/10). Note the inverted dome on Q 2 Day which indicates a peak will occur and then the market will roll back down. Also notice my favorite indication of trend or possible strong directional move on M 2 Day, with the polynomial and slope being parallel to each other which began on the opening last night and will end today.

    upload_2017-10-9_9-26-46.png upload_2017-10-9_9-27-20.png
     
  309. As stated previously the market is a measure of sequences and the completion of symmetries in time. An automated program is being developed that tells you when trends will change or when symmetries will be completed, and whether they will be up or down. For example in 30 minute data the current move will continue down until 2300 or 2330 to complete symmetry, but the current trend down doesn't change until 0130 on 10/16/17. Incorporating price levels is also in the works. Following these two charts tell you when prices will complete symmetry or when the trend will change. Here is how you follow them...it is very simple, when the regression lines intersect or cross is when the trend will change or when symmetry will be completed. Both are equally as important. These charts are for Friday 10/13 and Monday 10/16. More information will be provided, as time permits.

    upload_2017-10-15_9-1-35.png upload_2017-10-15_9-2-2.png
     
  310. Selling the ES again. Anything above 60 should put oneself in a good position. 64.25 would be a great place to sell but not sure it will get there. Too early last time but willing to accept the risk again.
     
  311. You know that trend traders will rush in to buy this dip. So you have to protect yourself at all times. There is a possibility that we are going to see strong, maybe violent moves in the coming weeks. My trading philosophy has changed over time. I am no longer interested small profit factors, only interested in the big payouts. That is done by capturing long enduring trends and catching the big sell offs or rallies that occur in short periods of times. In my data when the regression lines of the slope and polynomial are parallel to each other or their is a narrow width between them there is a high probability that a strong trend or sharp fast rally or sell off will occur. Over time smart trading and protecting yourself at all times is necessary to be successful in this business.
     
  312. I got it completely wrong on how this would play out but the data as I described was correct. Here is the 2 day chart showing strong, possibly violent moves.

    upload_2017-10-19_22-17-10.png
     
  313. This is a forecast of IBM weekly data for 2017. This forecast was made in December of 2016. I may have posted these charts some time ago, not sure. Anyway my only interest in trading is capturing big moves with cheap options. Note how the charts indicate when the big moves were going to happen in IBM. After the March move occurred a friend of mine and I said well see you this fall for another big move in IBM. Also enclosed is the ES intraday chart for 10/25 and 10/26. Notice what happened yesterday (10/25) between the opening and 1230.

    upload_2017-10-26_8-0-45.png upload_2017-10-26_8-5-4.png upload_2017-10-26_8-9-28.png upload_2017-10-26_8-9-50.png
     
  314. More swings like you saw this past will continue
     
  315. Here is a type of chart that has been mentioned before, when the slope and 6th degree (order) polynomial are parallel or wrapped tightly around each other. This is the TXN, Texas Instrument chart from August 1st until today 10/31.

    upload_2017-10-31_23-57-38.png
     
  316. ES Chart from 10/30 1830 until 11/1 0700. Once again on this particular chart a narrow width between the slope and 6th order polynomial occurs.

    upload_2017-11-1_9-32-16.png
     
  317. A top in after today? We'll see what follows as it's possible we could see some profit taking and selling coming in.

    upload_2017-11-29_9-30-55.png
     
  318. What is the x-axis on your chart?
     
  319. The x-axis is the timeline.
     
  320. After years of attempting to determine direction I found only moderate success, maybe hit or miss is a better way of describing it. But one aspect that kept manifesting itself was the data's ability to show me when the big moves were going to occur. Since then I have discovered that is far more valuable. By taking the Max and Min from certain data sets these could be isolated and easily spotted. e.g take for example this past Friday:

    upload_2017-12-31_15-3-37.png

    or sometimes they can be spotted within the two day forecast in this example that occurred on 2/28/17 and 3/1/17.

    upload_2017-12-31_15-6-2.png

    or it could be seen on a 1 day forecast for 3/1/17

    upload_2017-12-31_15-7-25.png

    Or how about the sell off then recent rally in Gold...check out the Daily from 10/2 to 12/29/17:

    upload_2017-12-31_15-12-21.png


    These will be the only types of data I will look for and trade in 2018. Have a Happy and Safe New Year!
     
  321. The following is a representation or reflection of the next 2 days 30min ES price and volatility chart. I prefer to look at these charts as price or volatility increasing or decreasing. Sometimes on price charts during counter trend moves the market will move sideways, then take off when the trend resume's. The 2018 Weekly for the British Pound was posted earlier in another thread.

    upload_2018-1-28_21-7-11.png upload_2018-1-28_21-7-48.png
     
  322. Here are recent algorithms I have been working with. Actually I am very satisfied with them. Looking at them as to whether price or volatility is increasing or decreasing is best. Sometimes sideways movement is indicated by counter trend indications on the price chart, otherwise movements up or down have been very consistent. Here is the ES Price and Volatility charts for the Daily from 1/1 to 3/30.
    upload_2018-1-29_8-46-34.png upload_2018-1-29_8-47-13.png
     
  323. Jack Hershey lives!
     
  324. As indicated by this chart you can see that volatility will start to decline again, and especially in March. One would have to go to the intraday charts to find the volatility as the daily forecast shows the beginning of a decline in volatility. The sequences will show you the price swings, an example has been provided with explanation.

    upload_2018-2-8_8-35-7.png

    Black arrow indicates where the beginning of a new swing begins. In this case sequentially higher valley data points. Works the same way if the valley data points were sequentially going lower. Price goes in the same direction during these sequences until the end (Red arrow). Sometimes the market continues after the sequence ends until the next sequence begins, sometimes not.