Ok, I've just gone 50% long here at 1146. Stop at 1120-1130. I've also put 1% into front-month 375 and 400 strike AAPL calls.
Then please share the links. Correct, I am distinguishing between pre/post hindsight BS... I don't qualify a trade with an allocation after the fact. I actually include fill prices and (heaven forbid!) stops, which can be helpful if anyone is following along.
Yes and stepping back a bit, we are down 200 ES points in 2 weeks, fear is high, if we were going to crash it would have happened today and we'd be trading lower (1120, 1100 etc) with huge intraday moves, not this slow grind. Market feels totally sold out, all sellers are done IMO, but everyone is scared and on the sidelines. As soon as a 20-30 point rally gets going, suddenly everyone will want to be long, and start to rush in. We might even close unchanged, and hit 1250 by Friday. I'm thinking T-bond puts might be a good Texas Hedge here. If stocks rally, t-bonds should fall anyway, and they have the downgrade kicker.
Gentlemen, the bottom appears to be 1040 (head and shoulders formation). But you know how the market works, it will give us the margin of error of 10 more points, so 1030 is my guess.
So like 100 points below where we are now? Can you post a pic of this head and shoulders formation? I'm not seeing it.
My bad. I mean the bottom is 1140. But market likes to give us margin of error too --- so real bottom might be 1130. (Sorry about the missing 1!)
1040 was major support last year. My theory remains we are still in a longer term bull market and so the bottom this year will be higher then last year. Anywhere from 1100 to Now seems logical. I honestly believe there are some major players just waiting on the buy programs right now for the moment it appears a bottom has formed. Markets are not always rational, any correction to 1040 as you predict should trigger huge buying programs. That would be one of the easiest trades of this decade. I have my doubts we'll get that low.
I prefer to average down, which I have been doing into SPY over the last few weeks (although I am also hedged a bit in case things keep going lower). Next buy is at $115.
I'm still not seeing the head and shoulders. Can you post up a quick chart? Are you looking at the dailies?