I also think that there is no straightforward answer when it comes to recessions. The only benefit of it is that you can buy assets very cheaply when one strikes. But, it is buy and hold strategy while traders would probably follow strong short
None of the above. Real case: Chinese from mainland China, flew in, bought and flew back. Then put it on the market as rental, renting it to an American family who could not afford to buy SoCal real estates.
ponzi schemes are end the same.the 'market' is only 600 stocks and thinly traded... this market is more institutional driven then retail driven. institutional control the market and right now, they are forced to buy the market as bonds, gov't T-bills and many money market is too low, normall these guys would sell stocks if interest rates rise,,well the Fed has keep interest low they are being 'manipulated' to buy the market. in the repo market or private bond market interest rate 10% that corporations are borrowing money. even gov't municipaliites have to pay 4% interest rate for long term borrowing.. nobody would lend money to speculators for less tha 4% interest short term or not that is the private market. the fed wants banks to lend money at 3%...why should they good jobs report, unemployment is 4% rising inflation. inflation is healthy 5% no real recession yet fed wants to support the market or give money to billinaires and millionaires who don't need the money. and corporatoins lay off workers. to lower wages etc. people may be employed but those are welfare jobs meaning they are not much better than welfare and at the end of the month, workers are further in debt. and becomes slaves to their masters. the middle class jobs with high disposable income is in decline ,hence retail stores closing like sears.
I found this chart very interesting. It shows the total market capitalization of the stock market as a percentage of GDP. Notice how the last time it was over 140% we had the dot com bubble burst. Could be an indicator of a bubble, but my feeling is this bubble is going to keep inflating with Trump at the helm.
Seeing markets in all-time highs is a logical consequence to the world's central banks expanding liquidity like there was no tomorrow. But there are other weird things happening to the Gold and cash, they seem to disappear. All this abnormal behavior keeps me thinking about causes.