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The sell-off explained

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  2. This appears to be a vanity thread. I don't agree at all with the analysis.
  3. Analysis??...just a grin amigo.
  4. Steve Wynn resigned. WYNN? Win? WIN! WIN! WIN!

    (Yup, I'm short)
  5. Those who know business and trading and chart reading, markets have wiped away 3-4 trillion dollars from smaller investors/inexperienced traders/those who believe history does not repeat/those who trade on the edge. Which is good for larger funds and traders, and knowledgeable investors, brokerages will be keep selling stocks at lower prices and adjusted PE's to be bought again, and chart readers know this is the Left Shoulder of H&S's and might take few years before the Head gets made.

    In couple weeks market be making new highs with many filing bankruptcy as they played the game and didn't learn first of all the nasty's that will happen if ill prepared. Many of us will be playing the game like nothing happened cept for the extra change in our accounts. Take heed, this will happen again one day and be a little deeper, and slowly grind up back till 99% all patting themselves on back for hanging on, and others be buying all the Puts the Bulls be selling... I luv the game....And enjoying the ride...:fistbump::rolleyes:o_O
  6. I wasn't trading during the crash, but it's very nice to know that my system would have had me being short and not trying to go long. 3 months of gains wiped out in just 1 hour. I wonder how many swing traders got wiped out during the crash? It seem a lot of them don't seem to understand that daytraders can do the same thing that swing trading do. But not the other way around.
  7. "It seems a lot of them don't seem to understand that daytraders can do the same thing that swing trading do. But not the other way around."

    First of all if your swing trading long/short 20+ futures instruments like most of us are you need at least $50k and will need a lot of grit to endure the 23 hours these markets move not to mention some serious $ mgmt skills. A lot of day traders lack the capital to swing trade, hence the reason they day trade.

    Most swing traders emerged from day trading, a good swing trader first has to be a somewhat decent inter-day trader to get a profitable position before holding overnight & beyond. Than there are hybrid traders out there that primarily swing trade yet will at time do some day/night trades - depending on the market conditions, I fit into that category.

    The market conditions have been prime for swing trading - the only conditions adverse for us to make profits are prolonged sideways markets. I know a bunch of swing traders - all of which are having an incredible quarter & that includes me.
  8. I am in agreement.

    The other side is a lot of daytraders seem to have a myopic view of market fundamentals and don't seem to have the ability to predict. Hence their dependence on patterns.

    Daytrading is good at training you to be good with accuracy and timing. You can make consistent profits every day. But it's limitation is scalability. Swing trading is where the bigger profit potential is.

    Which is why I am in agreement with you that a dual hybrid system is the best.
  9. I was honestly looking for a reason why the stock market and crypto market crashed. But this thread is not it.

    I figured that every January the stock market dips. But then again... who knows?

  10. Mainstream news said it was rising inflation data, causing rising probability of interest rate rises.

    I don't know or care, but at least I know more than the mainstream news people - all they know about markets is what the last person they spoke to told 'em. I try to avoid trading when the markets are on the tea-time news.
  11. It's like that in the stock market world too?

    In crypto, the news is often not really the news. The truth is always on reddit or twitter.

    It's sad to know that the stock market mainstream news isn't reliable either :/. I mean with the stock market being more regulated with bans on insider trading and pumps and dumps, you'd think the news would be the news.

  12. The truth is on reddit or twitter?

    It may be for all I know, as I haven't looked there.....
    For me the truth is in the charts.
  13. for crypto, the truth is in the weirdest places, yes. reddit, twitter, biz. that's where things happen in real time.

    the news only covers the coverups :p
  14. I was honestly looking for a reason why the stock market and crypto market crashed.

    When the buyers dry up the price eventually drops. Both in bitcoin and the stock market there was a big spike in FOMO (fear of missing out) over the last few months - this is the last of any buyers piling in. People start realizing they are the suckers left holding the bag & the mob runs for the exit.

    A real good book, a fascinating read on this topic "Devil Take the Hindnmost"
  15. That's only one side to the story. There's also the fact that CME and CBOE bitcoin futures were going to start trading for the very first time... and there were rumors that the banks pumped btc's price so they could crash it and short it for more profit.

    I'm not saying that's what happened, but BTC did pump all the way until the day CBOE futures started trading, then it dipped. Then the same thing happened when CME was about to start trading.
  16. Of course it is not. It is a copy of MY thread where I explained both, called Pekelo explains the sell off.

    In short, both markets got way overheated and went vertical. When that happens the drop off is just as dramatic. Happens quite often with stocks. I even predicted the Bitcoin sell off about 3 days before it happened in the Bitcoin price action thread. The trigger if there is any is really not relevant, when the circumstances are ripe, the inevitable will happen no matter what.

    Look at AMZN's weekly or monthly chart. That is the definition of going vertical. That thing went up 300 dollars in 5 weeks but already dropped back 200 in 2 days.

    That is the short explanation.
  17. If you predicted the BTC selloff 3 days before it happened. I need to get your number :D
  18. Posted on Dec 18th, price was around 19K:

    Price dropped down to 12K form where it bounced up to 17K. I have several others in the same thread. :)

    My number is: 1-800-THE-AUGUR
  19. Lol. Predicting a selloff is easy. Shows who's the amateur when they are easily impress by these sort things.
  20. well excuse you
  21. Honestly man, the original thread post is pretty clear cut with explaining the reason behind the selloff.
  22. ...In highly complex systems, such as investing in the global markets, the creation of narrative fallacies becomes even more likely. The most poignant examples of narrative fallacy are often articulated by the 24/7 business news media, the CNBCs of the world. They are by their very nature constantly reacting to global market events and are required to come up with interpretations of events on the fly. Rarely are these interpretations founded on anything other than mental short cuts, but they share one attribute of all narrative fallacies, plausibility. These “plausible” explanations are then adopted by investors who watch CNBC as part of their process. (Incidentally, if anyone can find me a trading floor in America that does not tune into CNBC I would be shocked. This point seems to verify the broad spread and unknowing acceptance of narrative fallacy)...

  23. Cool. You predicted it. And how much did you make predicting the sell-off (and not only reacting to it when it was underway)?
    All these almost perfectly timed predictions...you must be crazy rich by now. :)
  24. Now you see guys this is the hard part actually, not the prediction itself. I don't trade bitcoin, I provide the insight for fun. By the way there is nothing wrong with reacting to it when it is under way, be it the market or cryptos...
  25. I agree. As long as you have the latest TimeTravel 3000 model, it is easy peasy. If you don't have that, you can do the old fashioned way, predicting a top every other day for 6-12 months, and eventually you will be right.

    But as FF pointed out it is playing it right what is hard, not predicting it.
  26. Read through my posts on the WYNN thread if you want to see how you can be 100% right on the news drops, the timing, and their implication and still blow the trade (long Feb 16 $160 puts and short shares). :banghead:
  27. i do not understand who needs an explanation of the sell-off...

    one either knows what to do during the sell-off or not, explanation would not help
  28. But if you can explain you can then be ready for the next one and hopefully ready to profit.

    Of course why we cannot profit from predictions is we normally predict 20 sell offs and only 1 actually happens. I have been anticipating tops every week for all of 2017 and 2018.:(
  29. http://club.investo.ru/viewtopic.php?t=51479

    the link is in Russian

    its up to you if you want spend time translating it but as you can see that was not a short answer to the same question

    at that time i could write long answers when they were warranted, not anymore :)
  30. Looking at the REITS and Utes, it's like interest rates are going to 5% next week. Things are looking a little panicky or waterfall-ish.
  31. lol. that was pretty damn funny
  32. Because people are curious animals and they like to know, why(even if the answer isn't correct, but acceptable)? Why are we here? What is the meaning? Why is this apple falling down? Why is the market falling?

    Also when people get use to something (like the market only going up) and that thing suddenly changes (hey, my January gains are gone!) it is just natural they want an explanation. Wouldn't you?
  33. No I would not.

    General public may be curiouse, which gives it false sence of security.

    But professional has a method. And that all he needs. I do not care for the reasons
  34. Well, then you don't deserve an explanation to your question. :)
  35. u probably right