No 2Qs negative GDP.
Cisco can't have bust #s.
No excessive inflation, according to CPI. (And we may well have peaked w/ inflation for this cycle, despite faulty CPI modeling methods).
All despite banks getting taken to the cleaners by too aggressively lending to the cleaners (janitors/subprime).
Is all the negativity in our collective imagination formed by assumption that history always repeats itself (which it never does exactly)?
Now everyone is excited after a Dow +300 day. The enthusiasm is back, if only because the price action dictates it (the most fleeing justification and thus most invalid, I think).
Let me propose some reality: Global macro trends are all hinging on some fundamental global economic anchors possibly changing. That is the only way bears get the global capitulation/recession they want. In other words, China lets the yuan float, stopping their monetary flood and slowing their export engine. Until that happens, this is going to continue the only trend I can confirm: opacity and more of the same.
With fed policy like this, banks are recapitalizing. The jury is out on the energy 'bubble', if in fact that latest price spike was a bubble or an actual symptom of what happens in demand inelastic markets.
Housing broadly still has a lot further down to come, but there *are* pockets of subprime in the most overheated markets that I believe are hitting bottom. (I just bought a condo in San Marcos (San Diego suburb) for $126k that sold for $320k in the peak of the bubble in 06, example) This is where opportunity is.
I'm not sure, but there doesn't appear to be a fundamental catalyst to get us out of the mire we are in. The markets can just as easily bounce between 13 and 18 PE on ether alone - just changes in interest rates and inflation/deflation outlooks can drive this movement.
With that said, between here (and even 1000) and 1600, fundamentals nor catalysts matter little.
The SEC and Paulson/Fed have put a put under the market - that is the only bullish thing (besides multiple expansion) that I can come up with.
There's my ounce of vagueness for you guys.
The only bad thing about days like today is stock_trad3r will be back soon.