Home > General Topics > Economics > The reality in New York City and the economy...

The reality in New York City and the economy...

  1. I was out last night...a Friday night where it was comfortable enough to wear a long sleave shirt. Spring was in the air. I drove around NYC meatpacking district where it seemed like there was no traffic. I found a parking space very quickly. No line was at the club I went into. The bouncers at the front door were beckoning me in. When I left, they asked why I was leaving. I didnt pay any cover....They gave me a stamp. Later on I came back and there was no line and went back in again.

    Whats wrong with this picture? In all the years I have lived in NYC, I have never encountered these situations. Traffic, parking, lines and the crowded conditions on the weekends have always been a problem.

    I cant remember it ever being like this during the 80s, 90s or the 00s. Never. All of the clubs in the meatpacking districts have always had frustrating hour long lines, 20-30 dollar cover charges and bouncers who could care less if you ever get in.

    When going out last night, I noticed the chiseled frustrated looks on people's faces which I cant ever remember seeing in NYC.

    I crawled around on Craigslist to find mid-town high rise doorman apartments going for under 2 grand a month...in 2006, you couldnt find a crummy walk-up for under 2 grand...

    Its amazing the changes taking place....
     
  2. Hey Port.. always enjoy your NY commentary. Esp about the different stages of women.. lol. Do you mind if i asked you what club you are talking about?

    Everything in this city does seem to be getting a little "less hot." Haven't been denied entrance to a lounge/club for at least a year which is crazy. I am just waiting for a place like Tenjune or Pink Elephant to have open admission at 1am.. The depression will be finally confirmed then..lol.
     
  3. Things are indeed quiet at the traditional money burning venues in NYC.

    Makes sense, as nobody has any idea if they can count on getting paid for their work at the end of this year. Better save a few $, just in case.

    Part of what you witnessed is specific to the Meatpacking District though.
     
  4. My friend is living in the Meatpacking District. I know numerous bars and clubs there went out of businesses this year, and couple clubs were converted into restaurants to survive.
     
  5. I have rolled through the Holland Tunnel and over the GW Bridge a few times these last few months. Lately, the Holland Tunnel seems to have no long lines or big waits. I remember in 2006 there used to be lines miles long just to get in with a 2 hour wait. I was able to make it to within site of the booths before I realized any real traffic.

    The GWBridge has also been very kind in the same way lately.

    Shopping malls all over Jersey and Long Island seem very quiet. No rush to the stores is evident like in years past on the weekends.

    I can imagine an army of people sitting at their computers at night and watching cable tv waiting it out as if in a fallout shelter.

    If this is the new normal, I cant imagine it being very profitable for business owners. Dont forget the TED spread. If these business owners need money, then they will hit the bank for a loan. They may not get a loan OR if they do get a loan it will be at horrible terms. Banks are looking very closely at who they loan money too.

    Would you loan money to one of these clubs where they are fighting for people's business or to one of these mall stores where the parking lot is empty? I wouldnt and I cant imagine a bank loaning them money either...

    BTW, the old Limelight is now a dollar store. Amazing...
     
  6. The subway crowd is changing too. The trains are less packed both in the city and the ones going out to Jersey and Long Island.

    In the evenings there are way more homeless on the subway, you can smell it just getting into the train car.

    Samething with bars and restaurants. Places near Times Square used to be packed after work, now they are empty.

    Tourists too... it used to be that you couldn't walk down 6th & 5th Ave without walking into a tourist's photo op, now you can actually walk thru without having to avoid groups of tourists (they used to be like Pigeons, especially the Brits; no offense).

    -Neo
     
  7. Meet me for brunch 177 Mulberry St., 1pm today. $15 unlimited mimosas.
     
  8. Sounds like some of this could be called a silver lining. Stosh
     
  9. Guys,

    I live in manhattan and the restaurants around me are packed! I went to SouthSide in Soho a couple Sundays ago and it too was packed! Maybe it was an off night in MeatPacking? The place kinda blows anyway unless you got connections to the right spot (Tenjune or something). Went to Brass Monkey a few weekends ago and there was a long a$$ line!

    I'm amazed that I haven't seen it more but I just don't see that drastic of a change. Granted I walk to work so I don't have a view on the subways or tunnels. I have noticed rents come in a little and I will not complain one bit about that!
     
  10. [​IMG]
     
  11. Nahh I'm just kidding Port. I'm fucking envious and wished I lived in Manhattan. I can't afford it though.
     
  12. I was at BLT steak last night and I had to wait for my 10pm table. As much as I hate to admit there is hidden strength though I don't understand why.


     
  13. Its called disbelief...and it will catch up with everyone.

     
  14. Lower East Side flat going for 2400, @ 1900 squar feet. Never in my life, growing up in NYC have I seen those flats that cheap. They are willing to lock that in for 3 plus years.

    My city is going through some serious changes. Wallstreet as we know is gone, so are the jobs and the Tax base.

    Friends of mine love Brooklyn. So far, things are doing ok there.

    Manhattan.....wake up call.

    Sorry folks. Sex in the City is over......time to regroup and re-invent the "Tax" base of NYC. It's not just NYC either, LA, CHICAGO, MIAMI.....those cities are falling apart all but slowly.

    I have faith that the cities above will bounce back some decade. It will be interesting to see how things go as unemployment inches up towards 10% or more....
     
  15. how much are they asking now? :D
     
  16. i was around little italy for dinner yesterday..place was dead...
     
  17. I used to live in NYC in the 90's now in CA (I always thought CA is expensive but that is nothing like Manhattan)
    Anyway, I hated it. The humidity and the smell of piss on the street was just revolting. I lived in a rent controlled apt up by the cloisters but the "hood" was bad there......so I moved to Queens....was a big improvement....but not by far...
    I could get used to NYC if I had major money, but I am broke like the rest...
     
  18. I lived in NYC in Battery Park City in the 80's and 90's and must say that one really had to put up with a lot of "crap" in order to enjoy a somewhat high quality of lifestyle.

    After adding up my rent, the parking garage, summer rental, food, health care, clerk, auto, and other major expenses, I think that I needed to make $85,000 just to break even - - - and that was back almost 20 years ago!

    Living only a block from the World Trade Center certainly eased my stress as I had no commute. That having been said, I did commute for awhile into Manhattan from Connecticut and it was a pain in the ass . . . especially that trip from Grand Central down to Wall Street on the subway . . .

    Especially in the summer with 90% humidity and 90 degree temperatures.

    Nothing quite like it.
    And I have ZERO desire to return.
    :)
     
  19. When you said clerk it clicked - I too moved there to trade futures but the WTC was about to be blown up (the first time). I was shocked at the cost of doing business vis a vi Chicago.
    It must have been a brisk walk from the Battery Park to the WTC...
     
  20. Yeah, once I get my masters and get an RV to live in, I am out of Manhattan. Headed to Jersey. Fuck this city.
     
  21. LOL, Jersey. The city is livable on shoe string budgets. Just ask all the aspiring actors/singers/painters/...traders.


    For example, did you know you can get a hotel room in midtown for ~$60/night
     
  22. I am not going to live like those losers. They think they get deals when they get a nice apartment and manage to sneak a third artist and an illegal immigrant in off the lease to pay the rent on a 2 bedroom 9th floor walk-up.

    Jersey has the Pine Barrens. I'm going to live like some kind of crackpot outlaw out of my RV.
     
  23. jERSEY IS a fucking joke.
     
  24. A cheap affordable joke.

    My friend who makes like $60,000 a year has a nice house, a car, and a view of a lake. He bought his place in 2004 and he could pay it off any day.

    Had I done the same thing in Manhattan, I'd be going into foreclosure and would probably be a divorced chain smoker who sounds like some kind of horse-voiced, steroid-addled Fran Drescher.
     
  25. The hotel guests are full of hookers too :)

    In some places in Brooklyn, you can still get apartments for 1000 for 2 bedrooms.

     
  26. Yeah, like Bed-Stuy. I suppose if I move there, I should forget this trading equities business and start trading cocaine and stolen automobile parts.
     
  27. That was my last year in NYC.
    I was there in WTC #4 when the bomb went off (van filled with fertilizer) in the parking garage near the Vista Hotel, back in 1993.

    I was just sliding my tray and lunch down to the cashier in the cafeteria when you could here a muffled "blast" go off underneath the World Trade Center Plaza down below. No one thought anything of it, and continued to trade for the next 90 minutes. Shortly thereafter, it was an eery scene for sure.

    The ventilation system was shut-off and the temperature on the trading floor surged to 85 degrees or so. I remember looking over to the COMEX part of the floor and noticed that no one was standing in the gold or silver pits, even though it wasn't time for those contracts to close yet. I wondered how the metals every got "settled".

    My Dad had called the Spear, Leeds booth wondering what was going on because CNN was reporting that a subway may have jumped the track down below. Lots of "stories" were being rumored about, but no one knew for sure what had happened till much later.

    Next thing you knew, the lights were shut off, and people were all lined-up at the coat check room trying to get their jackets because it was cold outside with some light snowflakes falling. Everyone was very calm, except for a security guy who was sweating bullets and yelling on a bullhorn at everyone. He kept telling everyone to leave out the staircase ( and take the 8 flights down to the Street ), but no one budged . . .

    We all wanted our coats! :)

    The coat checkers knew who "buttered" their "bread" at Xmas time so they were very loyal and stayed; manually grabbing everyone's coat off these huge coat-racks via flashlight.

    I casually walked down the stairwell to Broadway and as I popped out onto the street I noticed a TON of emergency vehicles, patrol cars, you name it. Even some fire hose scattered about. But no sirens, and no noise. Just some light snowflakes falling . . .

    It was extremely surreal.

    On another note, my commute was a breeze after the World Financial Center got built. I no longer had to walk across the west side highway because they installed a glass enclosed walkway that exited on the other side of the highway, right across the street from the WTC.

    Actually, if the weather was REALLY bad on a brisk Winter day, I could walk outside my apartment complex at Gateway Plaza, head right into the Dow Jones building, up the escalator to the 2nd floor, and then walk over into the American Express Tower ( where the Atrium is with Palm Trees ) and then cut back right into the World Trade Center via another enclosed "overcross".

    Never had to be exposed to the elements for more than 30 seconds.

    :)
     
  28. I live in Tribeca and yesterday I too walked to the meat packing district on route to the Chelsea market in the mid afternoon.

    You could not move in Chelsea market because of out of towners window shopping mostly.

    In contrast I passed by the White Horse Tavern on Hudson on my way up there and store after store was boarded up with for rent signs. There several yet to be completed failed condo projects in my neighborhood not to mention the new Goldman Sachs headquarters which is no longer needed.

    New York is an expensive city compared with other US cities but not compared with European cities. I was in Europe last week. Starbucks tall americano is 2.50 euro or approx $3.25 vs $2.28 in NYC. Likewise for everything else.

    Public services stink here, taxes are going up and the city's engine is dead.
     
  29. No, there are some places in Bensonhurst that are cheap and relatively safe. I'm not talking about Bed Stuy or East NY.
     
  30. 800ft one beds in West Village, NoHo, Tribeca are still >$2500. Just take a look at www.housingmaps.com

    A lot of units look to be 25% under 2007 prices. Lots of incentives like one-month free rent, no deposit, etc.
     
  31. interesting read.
     
  32. NYC wasn't designed for middle class aspirations. It's built around the uber poor and the uber rich. The middle class is like an organism the other classes leech off of, work for the rich to support the poor.

    It's retarded to think you can live comfortably off 60k in the city but if thats your goal, then like you said, Jersey is affordable.

    The 'loser' living in a railroad apartment, cold calling, working in restaurant/bar, going to auditions, pitching some scheme, or even joining a day-trading firm can one day come in and make a MM dollars. Probably not very likely in Bayonne, NJ.


     
  33. dude i was at 400 gateway plaza when the bomb went off..those were the days..
     
  34. The housing market it in the city relies on the job market. Until jobs come back to the city the housing market can't recover.

    A lot of the blame for the housing crisis in the city can be placed square on the government.

    This article explains about rent control in the city and how it's messed up the housing market.

    http://robparis.blogspot.com/2009/04/government-influence-on-housing-in-new.html
     
  35. and why are those people losers? nothing wrong with working a menial job to pay the bills or as a means to pursue bigger goals.

     
  36. You're right, there's nothing wrong with working a menial job to pay the bills. But when you can't afford to live in NYC because the rents are too high, then you shouldn't be living in NYC.

    It's wrong to be subsidized by everybody else because you refuse to commute to your job. Rent control is the worst of it. The property owner is told how much he can charge for his property. If that's how it's going to be, don't call it ownership.


    http://robparis.blogspot.com/2009/0...ing-in-new.html
     
  37. I dont think they are, thats why 'loser' is in parenthesis.
     
  38. LOL, I have to get down there to see that one! :p
     
  39. thats half the story..the owners bought the building cheap knowing its gonna be rent controlled and now they are trying to kick people out ..
     
  40. I somewhat agree. A lot of the people who own the buildings now bought at a lower price because the building was rent-controlled.

    If rent control was suddenly ended, these owners would hit the jackpot.

    Since the rent control is wrong in the first place. I'd rather see these owners get lucky than keep the bad system.

    It's a fundamental problem and it needs to end one way or the other. It's not like the building owner could sell in this market anyway! ;)


    http://robparis.blogspot.com/
     

  41. I know what you're saying.

    Here in Scottsdale there are typically 3 cars at a stoplight. There used to be 4. People just aren't going out anymore.

    And I saw a 40 year old woman last night with a noticable wrinkle line on her forehead. Would have never seen that before. It would have been removed before she ever set foot out the door.

    The world is going to hell.
    :eek:
     
  42. This article explains about rent control in the city and how it's messed up the housing market.

    http://robparis.blogspot.com/2009/0...ing-in-new.html

    ------------------------------------------

    I disagree regarding rent controls. Free market rents work fine outside the city limits but a city such as New York, rent control has its benefits for the diversity you need and to maintain the unique make up of an urban area.

    The gov't is a poor landlord (projects). Private housing with rent controls work well to include all income classes, it provides a diverse work force and a more various retail customer base nearby.

    Maybe gov't incentives could be better to subsidize rent controls in private building via generous tax breaks.
     
  43. You must have skipped Econ 101. Rent control is a price control with the government setting the price (rent) below where the market based supply and demand curves intersect.

    Economist actually do agree on some things and pretty much are in consensus that rent control is economically destructive. It has no place in a market-based economy.

    I believe in a social safety net but not rent control which singles out a minority of private owners of property and forces them to provide a social/charity role that general real estate owners don't have to provide.
     
  44. The diversity of New York City would survive without rent control. There are still plenty of place where there is cheap rent in the city (not due to rent control). Alphabet city and Inwood are two examples. But that's beside the point. The government has no duty or right to maintain the diversity of the city.

    Private housing with rent control amounts to not private housing. If the owner can't set the price, then he doesn't fully own the property. Again, an individual owns property, the government has no right to tell him what he can charge for its use.

    http://robparis.blogspot.com/
     
  45. Is that possible mister? ( 2 live in a RV) I ask cause my mommy keeps telling me when just might have to move from where we live here on Long Island cause it cost to much money to live here.

    There's just me and her and I'm just a kid ( special needs kid ) who goes to school so she works two jobs and sometimes three :(

    She says maybe we should go to FloriDUH but I told her it would be to hot for me so she said just last night while we were talking that maybe we can get a small RV that she can drive and we will live in it and travel around the country.....she said she can always get work ( mostly waitress ) and we can park in parks and stuff....she also said we could stay in warm places in the winter and then not so warm or HOT places in the summer.

    Is that possible mister? Is that what you are thinking of doing when you said live in a RV?
     
  46. I know of people who live in Manhattan and pay under 300 dollars rent for a 1 room apartment while other tenants are paying much higher. I guess it is unfair, but without rent stabilization my friend would never live in Manhattan. I bet the owners are wishing for my friend to move out or pass away :p
     
  47. I have 4 sq ft available in my store, I can put in a gumball machine and generate some revenue but the gov't says I must put a recycling container for plastic bags.
     
  48. This thread should be moved to chit chat.

    I'm only saying this because the thread on Michigan, where I happen to live, was.

    Here, as in the Michigan thread, quite a few people who've probably never been to NY have been slamming it pretty hard.

    I have only been to New York City proper, and not often, so I'd never pretend to know what the quality of life or conditions are in the city or state, in general.

    I do think New York will feel much more pain in coming years, as financial sector jobs continue to bleed until the point of the new equilibrium, which might take a good 4 years or so, but hope that I'm wrong.

    While not as pegged to one industry as Michigan was, New York was and is still pretty intensely pegged to all things finance.
     
  49. Do you even understand how & why rent control was enacted? It's relatively easy to find out, just go on wikipedia. I can see robparis has an agenda, he is obviously in favor of NYC greedy slumlords, but maybe you can educate yourself.

    The government does not just show up and turn regular apartments into rent-controlled. These apartments have been passed down for decades, in mostly old ass buildings that are falling apart. These are technically leases established 40-50 years ago which are passed down.

    I'm not in favor of rent controlled apartments at all, but I certainly do not support the scumbag slumlords who purchase those buildings & then try to force the people to leave. There are already enough problems with rent controlled apartments.

    On the flipside, the new "market rate" overpriced, cheaply built "luxury" buildings have detrimentally impacted NYC in a way that it may not recover.
     
  50. I agree with you Anaconda. Buildings that have rent-control are usually "old ass buildings that are falling apart".

    The old buildings with rent-control will continue to fall apart as long as rent-control continues. If the landlord isn't making money, he can't afford to fix the building's problems. In some cases, it's probably best to demolish the building and re-build. This can't be done as long as the landlord can't choose to stop renewing leases. The people living in the building are renters, not owners. They have no "right" to stay in the building year after year. The person who owns the building has the right to do whatever he wants with his property as long as he doesn't infringe upon the rights of others.

    I am not in favor of greedy slumlords. Yes, there may be "scumbag slumlords" who will profit. And it's not ideal, but it's a side-effect of ending rent-control. Once rent-control is over, ideally, many of these slums would become much nicer buildings. There are so many problems with rent-control that the best solution is to just end it. There is near consensus with economists that rent-control hurts the community.

    Why do you believe that the cheaply built luxury buildings have detrimentally impacted NYC?


    http://robparis.blogspot.com/
     
  51. People should also take into consideration how rent control effects the price of non-rent controlled apartments. I believe it has a crowding out effect that increases rent prices for those who can't get into a rent controlled area.

    Lets say you have a rental market that is split into 50 rent controlled apartments and 50 none rent controlled. The people in the rent controlled apartments have no incentive to ever move, thus the available (tradable) rental market is confined to 50 apartments, not 100. This creates an imbalance, there is more demand for the 50 rentable apartments then there would be otherwise, therefore prices for available rentals rise. In markets where real estate is cheaper this imbalance would be fixed by more building, but in a market like NYC the imbalance can persist for years because the supply of real estate is almost inelastic.

    -Neo
     
  52. The influx of hotshot commercial & residential developers has severely hurt the culture & community of NYC. Smaller family businesses being priced out in favor of the brand name corporate crap or high priced luxury chic stores (which are now going out of business). The "luxury" condo/rentals/commercial are unsustainable and you're seeing the cracks right now. When those spaces turn vacant, where are those hotshot developers? Meanwhile, as a result, quality small businesses were pushed out, and they are not coming back.

    This city has gotten gentrified and now it's being slowly abandoned by the same perpetrators who helped push the cost of living to absurd proportions. All those "luxury" buildings have high maintenance costs, and hence can never drop enough to be reasonably priced.

    What you're going to see in the near future is people moving out of the city into the boroughs. You will see abandoned high rises, like in Florida. NYC will not be the job center it once was. There is going to be little incentive left to live in NYC, unless you're uber rich or you're in Section 8.
    Once the restaurants go, it's all over for NYC. And they are cracking as we speak. The luxury boutique stores are in their final stages right now, these are the first to go. As well as overpriced lounges, bars & clubs.

    Also, some of these cheaply built "luxury" high rises are gonna collapse on their own. This will happen, mark my words.

    P.S. The guys who are making moves in NYC real estate & doing well, avoid any "luxury" buildings, particularly commercial. The real bread & butter are corners with cheaply maintained businesses, like corner delis, little family shops, laundromats, etc.
     
  53. NYC is awful. Dirty, smelly, and overcrowded. The best jobs in finance are actually in Boston...but don't come here we don't want you!
     
  54. You can get clam chowder everywhere, but you can only get New York pizza in NY citee.:eek:
     
  55. Actually I think you have it backwards. Anyone can learn how to make pizza like its done in NY. Good luck getting fresh clam in Idaho bud.
     
  56. Wrong. NYC pizza tastes great due to the water. Can't reproduce
     


  57. Smaller family businesses can only be priced out of the market in favor of big retailers and luxury chic stores if thats what people prefer. If people didn't want the luxury stores, they wouldn't have been able to make a profit (even in a good economy) and wouldn't have sprung up all over the place. People preferred luxury stores and big retailers to the smaller family businesses and they spoke with their wallets.

    People always rally in defense of mom and pop stores and against Wal-Mart, but they don't heed their own advice. If everybody really hated Wal-Mart, it wouldn't be one of the largest companies in the world. Likewise, if people in NYC didn't want luxury stores, they wouldn't exist because people wouldn't have shopped at them.

    The cost of living did go to absurd proportions, but that's not due to the developers. The buildings could never have been built without access to cheap money provided by the Fed's cheap interest rates. The new luxury buildings do have high maintenance costs, but theres no reason that they can't drop. If the wage rate falls and the property value and property tax fall, the maintencance costs will drop with them. When rental prices fall, people will move back into Manhattan from the boroughs and elsewhere. I doubt that we'll see many abandoned high rises in the city. Prices will fall and people will come back.


    http://robparis.blogspot.com/
     

  58. New York pizza is delicious. One of my favorite things about living in the city is having so many different pizza places to try, both new and old.

    It's so good that you can go to any other city and they'll have a pizza place called "New York Pizza" or something equivalent. It's not nearly as good, but they try!


    http://robparis.blogspot.com/
     
  59. Boston is fun for a beer filled weekend. Anymore then that, the meat-head frat boy college bar scene gets very old. Weather sucks and omg the DRIVERS!

    Degradation of New York would be a good thing IMO. Lower rents, cost of living, should hopefully stimulate some interesting people to move back in. The 80's were a great time in the city as artists could afford to live IN manhattan, probably a dump in Alphabet city but still on the island. It remained vibrant through the 90's but ultimately killed by MBA bankers and Sex & the City types.
     
  60. Boston blows.

    Just having to listen to that awful accent is enough to keep any normal person away from there.
     
  61. Title-town bitch. Boston people rule the world - literally.
     
  62. Boston Titletown? LMAO.

    Add up all the championships in every major sport and Boston still doesn't have as many as the Yankees do by themselves.

    Titletown---ROTFLMAO.
     
  63. And this is exactly why you are seeing massive vacant commercial space right now. All those luxury & big retailer businesses were running on cheap credit. Where are they now? Either gone or doing 60%+ off sales as they count the weeks till they have to pull the plug.

    I can tell you really do not know what happened in NYC over the last few years. Greedy landlords were squeezing out long term loyal tenants because they saw green in their eyes. Everyone was jacking up commercial lease rates to the max, trying to get the next new tenant willing to pay absurd rates. Now it's biting them all in the ass. This happened with residential too.

    You must not live in NYC, cause it does not sound like you have seen the growth in vacant space. And it's just the beginning. That's the result of building overpriced unsustainable crap. There is no demand for that space and the small local businesses which made this city so unique are long gone. What now?
     
  64. I do know what happened in NYC over the last few years. I've been living in it. I've watched at the price of apartments increased and I moved in with a roommate because of it. You can't blame this on greedy landlords. How can you explain why all of the sudden landlords turned greedy? Why didn't they do this 10 years ago?

    If the prices fall enough, as they should, people will move back into the buildings.

    I live downtown and I have seen the growth in vacant spaces. Landlords are still trying to hold prices higher than they should be. Nobody is moving in because of it. Residential prices have started to fall, but the commercial real estate bubble hasn't fully popped yet. Once the price of commercial fall estate falls to reasonable levels, these vacancies will fill.

    I agree that this is what happens when you build "overpriced sustainable crap". But I think that things will turn around. It might take a while, but when prices come down, so will people.


    http://robparis.blogspot.com/
     
  65. "creating an artificial market" for all retail rents
    ------------------------------------


    Manhattan retail brokers have long voiced awe over how much banks paid for new branches even making first offers that were higher than asking rents.

    JPMorgan Chase got $25 billion in TARP dough. Three years ago, while the bank was dumping billions into subprime mortgages, it took a space in the GM Building for around $1,100 a square foot perhaps twice as much as for any previous retail bank lease and "creating an artificial market" for all retail rents, said Lansco President Alan Victor.

    A few million bucks extra a year for Manhattan branches are peanuts compared with the billions banks blew on worthless loans. But some view it as demonstrating that banks "have no idea of the value of money," as a prominent retail broker who asked not to be named put it.

    This broker said, "They spent like drunken sailors. We could only shake our heads and laugh at the offers that came across our desks. Spaces we pro-formaed at, say, $100 would routinely fetch double that from a bank.

    "To top it off, they insisted on locking in these rates for absurdly long periods of 15 or 20 years. Because they always signed with the parent corporation there is no way to get out of these absurdly overmarket obligations that will haunt them for years."

    Prudential Douglas Elliman's Faith Hope Consolo said that if a location "got competitive, it became an auction."

    Chase, Commerce Bank, now known as TD Bank, and Bank of America fought it out over a site at Fifth Avenue and 14th Street. Chase won by paying $350 a foot in a location where the going rate was "$250-$275 on its best day," she said.

    Now, Cory Zelnik, a principal of Zelnik & Co., said banks "are taking a more realistic, almost normal approach. Those still looking to expand are much more prudent."

    Cushman & Wakefield's Joanne Podell laughed, "The bidding wars don't happen any more since I picked up TD Bank as a client."

    She said that although TD Bank, with 30-odd branches, wants more, "We're only going to pay rents that are rational."

    RKF principal Robert K. Futterman defended the banks: "I don't want to be contrarian, but I don't believe banks had complete disregard for occupancy costs."

    Futterman, the leasing agent for retail space at the new apartment tower at 200 W. 72nd St., reasonably enough declined to comment on rumors that one bank has a pending deal, negotiated pre-crash, for an astronomical $600 a foot.

    It will be very revealing to see if that deal gets done and at what price.

    cfont on link.
    http://www.nypost.com/seven/03242009/business/banks_rental_sanity_161016.htm
     

  66. have you seen the women in boston? ugh.

    I feel sorry for men over there.


    NYC condo prices dropped 10% again. heard it on trade the news today
     

  67. Some how the top rated pizza joint is in phoenix,az :confused: Even Oprah rated it #1 and she is from chicago! (figured she would front run for a pizza joint in her own area) she has eaten alot of pies in her day
     
  68. i live in a direct water front suburb of manhattan, so close that if you go down 57th st and don't stop for the river you will be in my livingroom. I am in manhattan several times a week, i note some changes but things are still chugging along. i don't see these sub 2k one bedrooms in doorman luxury buildings, etc. i did get 75% discounts on several dream watches recently but that comes with the overall slowing. there has not been any decrease in tunnel or bridge traffic. manhattan is still alive and well as far as i can tell....

    on a positive note, the cipriani platinum bull has RETURNED!! this can only mean one thing.... but note the 90% off window across the street---interesting

    surf


    [​IMG]
     
  69. Weehawken sucks. Nothing to do there except Frank's and Arthurs landing (and neither of them are that good).

    Step it up and move on the water in Hoboken.
    :p
     

  70. :D


    use to suck

    :D


    [​IMG]
     


  71. The city is still alive and kicking, but there are signs of a slowdown. There are a lot more vacancies in both commercial and residential. And the job market is very slow and declining which isn't going to help.

    There are a few sub 2K one bedrooms in doorman luxury buildings downtown, but not many. Here's one: http://www.nybits.com/apartmentlistings/3ccbe827e1b046e7aa87006a017eb19b.html

    Some people might say Gateway isn't luxury, but it's close enough!

    http://robparis.blogspot.com/
     
  72. thanks!

    the other 1 bedrooms in that building start at 2600--- but yeah, i see the low priced ones may actually exist.

    surf:)
     
  73. Whats funny is that when I was looking for places to live in 95" that was one of them and it was about the same price ...
     
  74. People who live in doorman-less buildings are scum.
     

  75. ??????
     
  76. Maybe he is in the doorman union.:D
     
  77. It's the new breed of landlords, the hot shot developers, hence the new cheaply built "luxury" buildings with "market" prices. Bloomberg's policies favored these guys, because you know, buying & selling appreciating real estate is considered economic growth & progress in this country.
    If that is what you like to see, then you should enjoy the "progress" NYC will make in the next few years.


    Prices can't fall enough, those wonderful new luxury buildings have high maintenance costs & are highly overleveraged. They are unsustainable. The owners of the rental buildings won't carry the building at a loss, especially when leveraged (which 99%+ of them are). The real rent drops are from condo owners who are deluding themselves that it makes sense to carry their "investment" while they struggle to make ends meet.
    It's the same thing that is happening in Florida, condo & rental buildings standing empty. It's not as simple as a stock price dropping due to an oversupply of selling.

    It's time to pay the piper and it's not going to be pretty.
     
  78. When those signs turn to "FOR RENT" or "FOR SALE" do you think it's going to be more or less interesting?

    By the way, in case the middle aged B&T and euro wanna bees don't tip you off, cirpriani's is essentially a tourist trap. But maybe you have unique taste, I guess some people do like crappy pasta for $60 a plate.
     


  79. If the buildings are as unsustainable as you say, and the owners won't carry them as a loss, the owners will either try to unload them or go bankrupt. Either way, the building would go back on the market somewhere neat its actual value. Once the fixed costs drop, the rents will drop with it.

    Let's assume that doesn't happen and that the rental buildings stand empty. That would mean that there are the same number of people competing for fewer rentable apartments. That should cause the rents to level off and the remaining buildings will become sustainable again. Either way, the market eventually levels off at a sustainable price.

    I agree with you that it won't be pretty in the short term. (Well it will for me, I rent.) But soon enough the market will stabilize and land values in the city will start increasing again.


    http://robparis.blogspot.com/
     
  80. In the late 80's and early 90's prior to the tech boom commercial real estate and apartment buildings were going into chapter 11 at a pretty good clip in New York. The workouts went smoothly and there are still experienced players in that market. The problem as I see it is back then there were deep pockets to finance the bankruptcies with Chapter 11 financing .... this time around the downturn is not confined to just the US so the dollars to finance this will be difficult to come by and hence the cycle may last longer.
     
  81. good deals always attracts money.
     
  82. What do you think has been going on? There are buildings downtown going for pennies on the dollar and they are still not moving. There are plenty of hotshot developers & RE "playaz" who all of the sudden were deep in the hole as the banks stopped providing cheap credit.

    I don't know what half these guys are counting or hoping for, but it's quite similar to a bad trader/investor unable to face reality & take the loss.

    Well if you're really so sure, put your money on it. But betting on hope rarely pays out well.
    There are some astute investors buying right now, but their valuations assume no appreciation for years. It's all based on current income with conservative estimates.
     
  83. Don't forget the RTC portion of the cycle. In the last depression, people buying RTC assets on the cheap had clear competitive advantage and could offer space at like 50% of in-place lease rates. they could steal good tenants & offer lots of concessions, including build-to-suit suites. One result was that marginal properties and owners were tipped over as the price/lease structure ratcheted lower with each new RTC deal. Better to be a little late than way too early. Interest rates weren't at these low levels last time either.
     
  84. I hope so. I love NYC.
     
  85. The data shows a long way to drop if NYC reaches the trough of the 2003 recession....

    Log Chart

    [​IMG]
     
  86. Gees, the chart looks messed up.

    You mean the highest average median sales price was in '02, just months after 911? I don't think the national median sales prices would follow that same pattern. (I checked a few, they don't)

    That's odd.
     
  87. First of all, NYC is a way different animal then anywhere else in the country. Secondly, if you look at those charts, the number of homes sold was down considerably so there was less "sample data". People with money used that opportunity to buy more expensive homes, but as you can see the total number sold was way down.
     
  88. If you look at trulia and check the median prices of the 5 boroughs in the same time frame, the trend is up and not peaked in '02 as the chart suggests.

    The chart is misleading, imo.
     
  89. Also, don't confuse the median vs. mean designation.
     
  90. what is the real estate outlook in the city today?
     
  91. I notice there has been less and less people at the gym i go to, the personal trainers are just idling around. Times are going from bad to worse and any discretionary spending is being CUT.
     
  92. I noticed the Park Avenue Diner is now on 34th. The 6th ave Falafel cart is now on Park plus we're getting a new Mosque. The "All for a Dollar" moved into the Lehman building. Trader Joes is in the Trump building, it's a hot mess.
     
  93. I am not from NY so I am not understanding why All for a dollar store moving in to Lehman Building s ign of recession? And same for Trader Joes' moving in to Trump building?
     
  94. What sucks is my favorite Chinese Happy Ending massage place closed! Thats a bad sign, I was a regular and was surprised to see it closed. Which sucks since they had an excellent massage and Tableshower.

    Business there has been real slow.
     
  95. So bad, just think about it, and have an efficient solution