By John Aziz of Azizonomics.
Thereâs a much bigger cliff than the so-called fiscal cliff. The absolute worst result of the fiscal cliff would be a moderate uniform tax increase at a bad time, resulting in a moderate contraction. It is an obvious â but ultimately rather cosmetic â stumbling block on the so-called âroad to recoveryâ.
The much bigger cliff stems from the fact that the so-called recovery itself is build on nothing but sand. This is a result of underlying systemic fragilities that have never been allowed to break. I have spent the last year and a half writing about this graph â the total debt in the economy as a proportion of the economyâs output:
This is the bubble that wonât go away. This is the zombified mess that the Federal Reserve wonât let dissolve (as happened regularly in the 19th century and early 20th century each time there was an unsustainable debt bubble). This is the shifting sand â preserved by the massive monetary stimulus programs â that the so-called recovery is built upon. During the 1980s and 1990s and 2000s cheap money pumped up the debt level in America. In 2008, the bubble burst, and the hyper-connective fragile financial system was set to burn. Then central banks around the world stepped in to âstabiliseâ (or as Nassim Taleb puts it, overstabilise) the financial system. The unsustainable reality of debt vastly exceeding income was put on life support.
A high pre-existing residual debt level makes growth challenging, as consumers and producers remain focussed on paying down the pre-existing debt load, they are drained by pre-existing debt service costs, and they are wary about taking on debt or investing in a weak and depressed environment. Itâs a classic Catch-22. The only true panacea for the depression is growth, but the economy cannot grow because it is depressed and zombified. Thatâs where a crash comes in â the junk is liquidated, and clearing the field for new growth. That is what Schumpeter meant when he talked of âthe work of depressionsâ, something that many mainstream economists still fail to grasp. (In fairness, a similar effect can probably be achieved without a depression through a very large scale debt relief program.)
Japan has been stuck in a deleveraging trap for twenty years, to no avail, all that has really occurred is that the private debt load has been transferred onto the central bank balance sheet â there has been very little net deleveraging) and while the Japanese central bank has completed round after round of quantitative easing â sustaining and preserving the past malinvestment and high debt load â the Japanese economy is still depressed.
That is the road America and most of the West are now on. And just as Japanâs bank stocks did multiple times even after the Japanese housing bubble burst, American banking stocks â even in spite of a year of fraud, abuse, mismanagement and uber-fragility â have been shooting up, up, up and away:
The zombie financial sector is the real cliff â as interconnective as ever, as corrupt as ever, and most importantly, nearly as leveraged as ever:
This is a reinflated bubble built on foundations sand. I donât know which straw will break the illusion (middle eastern war? Hostility between China and Japan? Chinese real estate and subprime meltdown? Student debt? Eurozone? Natural disasters? Who knowsâ¦) but this bubble poses a far greater threat in 2013 than the fiscal shenanigans and the Boehner-Obama âBoner-Dronerâ snoozefest.
John does a good job here explaining how the G.O.P.; the self acclaimed "Grand Old (so-called conservative) Party", has helped more than its fair hand in getting us into this mess that the Obama admins doesn't seem to have a clue how to get us out of.
He perhaps could have spelled things out a bit more clearly by pointing out the fact that the Republican party was in the White House for twenty (20) of the twenty-eight (28) years in which the bubble formed, and eventually popped after the cherry the Bush admins put top of it.
Thanks for posting Tsing!
p.s. The Obama admins may have over spent in buying a trillion dollar tourniquet , and we may end up losing a leg, but at least the body is still alive.
We still have another leg to kick the can a little further down the road...