The low is in - Bear Trap in the making

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by Jahajee, Sep 15, 2008.

  1. Bad news is priced in the markets, the low has been made, better to get out of shorts now or be trapped - this is a Classic Bear trap being sprung right before your eyes.

    If you are short, be alert and nimble - don't overstay your welcome!
     
  2. Depends on your horizon, I'm sure shorts from this level will be thrilled 6 months from now. Daytrading is another story.
     
  3. I've been hearing this since the day when the Dow was trading at 14,000. My not so humble advice is that you should just "go with the flow".
     
  4. Darshan

    Darshan

    Nah, I think we break 11K just to spread a bit more panic... Then we buy;)
     
  5. Nah... watch the run down beginning Monday at 2:00pm cst.
     
  6. Down 100 points so far this month... 70 points since friday and 30 points in the last 5 hours. There will be some new levels of pain and panic after this run.

    1120 is realistic... 20% drop from June high of 1400.
    January 08 had over 200 points of swing.


    Date Range High Low
    8-Sep 92 1,303 1,212
    8-Aug 66 1,313 1,247
    8-Jul 92 1,292 1,200
    8-Jun 132 1,404 1,272
    8-May 67 1,440 1,373
    8-Apr 80 1,405 1,324
    8-Mar 103 1,360 1,257
    8-Feb 79 1,396 1,317
    8-Jan 202 1,472 1,270
    7-Dec 88 1,524 1,436
    7-Nov 140 1,546 1,406
    7-Oct 87 1,576 1,490
    7-Sep 99 1,539 1,439
    7-Aug 133 1,504 1,371
    7-Jul 102 1,556 1,454
    7-Jun 56 1,541 1,484
    7-May 59 1,536 1,477
    7-Apr 82 1,498 1,416
    7-Mar 75 1,439 1,364
    7-Feb 72 1,462 1,389
    7-Jan 38 1,442 1,404
     
  7. Ive never seen selling like today.
     
  8. We may be over sold in the near short term, but once again, I seriously doubt this is the bottom of this bear. Its just far too shallow of a bear market considering the macro mess. The probability of this being such a mild bear is low.
     
  9. Looks like the financials may have made a longerterm bottom.
     
  10. In fact it has broken out of its range to the downside (in the daily picture) and is heading for the lows again.
     
    #10     Sep 15, 2008