Why are you so obsessed with these moronic percentages or whether we are technically in a recession or not. Equity prices are in the crapper. STIR and bond prices are pricing in zero short term rates forever. What more do you want? Nobody except idiot economists, talking heads, lazy journalists, or politicians gives a damn - we all know things are sluggish. The question is what are you doing? Adding to your FF longs? Buying eurodollars? Buying 10 years? Shorting the $? Selling corporate paper vs gov't paper? Selling the junk bond index? Are you researching what would be the best move once all these imbeciles you keep referring to declare we are in recession - maybe that's the time to short bonds or buy $'s. And Krugman is still wrong. I'll take Denninger anyday ... http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=165876
You can read Denninger evaluating himself and his calls here. http://market-ticker.org/cgi-mt/akc...93-Where-We-Are,-Where-Were-Heading-2010.html Some hits, some misses. Still admirable of him to be so open instead of sweeping his misses under the rug.
And naturally, just at the time everyone KNOWS we're headed to recession and Japan-like status for the next decade, bond yields jump about 40 points in a week. This used to be a great thread. Lots of good trading ideas. Time to move this baby to Wall Street News or Economics.
Lockhardt supports QE if economy worsens " (03/09/10 DJ): Would consider balance sheet expansion if economy worsens. Expects better GDP growth later this year. VIEW : It seems like the data has to surprise clearly on the downside to push the Fed into further QE. Today's data means that has not yet happened."
Fed tests term deposits, interest rate is higher than IOR http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aW.l4O4wcuts If they were to use this in a large scale I cant see how the fed funds rate wouldn't go up(whether they want it or not), given that the discount rate(the so called ceiling) is at 75bps
How to tell if CEOs are lying http://www.economist.com/node/16847818 "They also use fewer ânon-extreme positive emotion wordsâ. That is, instead of describing something as âgoodâ, they call it âfantasticâ. The aim is to âsound more persuasiveâ while talking horsefeathers." I remember MBIA CFO saying in 2007 how their commercial RE team was 'the best in the business'
'Deceptive bosses, it transpires, tend to make more references to general knowledge (âas you knowâ¦â)' This is a trick routinely used by Bernanke
Lewis on Greece http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2010/10/greeks-bearing-bonds-201010?currentPage=all Gov revenues seem to be 28% of GDP, so I'd say Lewis exaggerates the effects of tax cheating plays a role there
9 states didn't file initial claims data this week, and the number drops 30K. That should be good for a 2% rally! I think I trust GE profit reports under Jack Welch more than gov't data. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ni...e-labor-day-hundreds-thousands-estimates-data