In all likelihood we are looking at a Dem House, Biden presidency, and the GOP having a 50-48 Senate lead after this election. The Democrats effectively take the Senate majority if they win both remaining seats as Harris becomes the tie breaking vote. Both of those seats will be determined in GA on January 5th, a state that looks like will be the closest margin of all the races (probably with a slight Biden win). Things the GOP has going for it: - Smaller turnouts usually, but not always favor them and special elections have smaller turnouts. - Voters usually vote for the opposition party to the presidency, but I'm not sure how this holds when the president hasn't even taken office yet and usually starts with decent approval ratings as most voters want to "give the guy a chance". However, that philosophy might be at its lowest point in recent history. - The Dems turned off some moderates by leaving out the possibility of court packing and removing the filibuster. The GOP will claim that they're running on an extreme agenda and scare the southern state with images of the liberal Jew from NY just like they do with liberal Nancy from San Francisco (casting them as out of touch with GA). Things the Dems have going for it: - GA is turning increasingly blue. - The Dems will be unified. They have one goal to focus on. They will be able to ignore the Trump sideshow. - Trump is generally selfish and going to be focused on trying to save his own ass, I don't know how likely he is to gin up the base for them. He might even feel betrayed and not do anything to help if they don't go along with his voter fraud bullshit. Therefore the senators will have to kiss his ass.