I think the pattern here is, everything that worked all of 2015 is the opposite now. hahaha. You gotta stay on your toes in this game.
Do you have any thoughts on BTU? I bought their bonds a couple weeks ago, and got a nice rally out of it. I am thinking if they file the recovery will be greater than what I paid as it was only 4 cents on the dollar or so.
The only theory I have on any of the coal names is Ackman is short 100 billion shares of all of them and he is in the process of liquidating everything to raise liquidity. There is no reason on earth for coal to be up much less a viable forward business concern.
That's a very good point. I just checked, didn't realize they are up more than double what I paid now, so I might lock in half and let the other half ride for now.
I think the rally that we are seeing in equities is primarily due to the fact that the Fed is removing the patient from life support via interest rates, and the economic data coming out so far is shows that the US economy is holding up well. The recovery in oil prices is not hurting things either. The overarching foundational argument the bears have made over the last 7 years is that no matter how much the market rose in the short term, it would eventually come crashing down once the Fed took its foot off the gas. If the economic data continues to show that the US economy is holding up fine without Fed intervention, then I could see the blow off top coming to the stock market. For some additional euphoria, add in the the presidential campaign of the most private-sector qualified candidate we have seen in our lifetimes, and I think the pieces are coming into place for irrational exuberance.