Mav did you also have a deteriorating number line going up to those new monthly highs? My 30 day started to break down just after the start of the month.
Natty just bumping into my Monthly Aup with a weak number line so I would be surprised if it makes it through.
If you are long an outright, for futures, there are two possible stops I use. One, a confirmed weekly A down. Two, a -7 or greater on the 5 day NL. I had an option position on so I trade those differently depending on the structure.
All the indices seem to be having trouble breaking the monthly Aup and I am starting to see a little internal weakness in the market. Starting to look like this rally is running out of steam. Are you guys seeing the same?
Not that I am a ACD practitioner yet, but I do feel like it is somewhat running out of steam. I've been buying some value plays over the past few weeks, but the past couple days I've sold some positions to lock in gains and free up some cash to buy with in the event we start moving down.
I see this exactly the opposite. And this is not even ACD related. When you see price levels holding at some level, in this case the monthly A up, the high percentage play is a breakout to the upside. The market does NOT give you this long to sell it and build your short position. It's a bear trap. The best failed monthly A ups are the ones you miss because they spike hard into them and roll over so hard that you have to chase it down. Yes, the market is taking a breather here. No, I would NOT try to short it. Take some exposure off, sure. I'm actually looking for fresh longs if and when we break.
My SPY NL isn't confirmed but I had it above the monthly A up already and we bounced of that level today.
Here is a recent example with USD/CAD. It looked to be basing at the QTR A down over a 3 week period. But look at how much time it's giving you to get long. I mean when the train starting leaving the station, the conductor stopped the train and reversed it and came back to get you if you really wanted to get long. LOL. Then of course the bottom fell out.
You can also see the reverse in the previous QTR when it was "running out of steam" at the QTR A up. Right before it ripped 1200 pips.