Spent my Saturday morning stalking Ray Dalio. Another good video here. Not sure if this has been posted before but well worth watching.
This is what I love about ACD. I use to look at moves like this and say the same thing, but in the context of ACD, you see how far extended above the QTR A up Gold got. And on the monthly you see it behaving quite normally. Failed A up and nearing the monthly A down.
anyone have a free ToS script for weekly and quarterly A levels or where I can download one? You can strip it of your proprietary stuff...i just need a basic script that draws those lines automatically based on %ATR like the original daily one.
Sure but in terms of trading this isn't very helpful. If I bought gold and decided to sell at the quarterly A up I would have left what $150 on the table? My number line also didn't confirm until 2/5 when it was already trading above my quarterly levels. Did yours confirm the move before then? My current number line is no longer confirmed I guess we'll see how it acts at the monthly A down.
Why would you have sold at the QTR A up? My number line only confirmed right below that around 1100. I mean that is the level it was actually breaking out at. Unless you were long from much lower levels, I wouldn't have sold there.
OK, just so we understand here and I know most of you guys don't have this down cold like I do, QTR levels are not used for simply exiting a trade. I use them as "long term trend exists". In other words, long term trends more often then not tend to end at their QTR levels. The issue here is Gold was at the "beginning" of the trend, not the end. There would be no reason to sell Gold just as it's breaking out and if you were planning to do that, why would you buy in the first place? So say my entry is 1100 and the QTR A up is 1112. Why would I get long at 1100 only to sell it at 1112? I would probably just leave the trade alone. Now the monthly A up is a different story. We failed up there 4 or 5 times. That exit got you out near the highs and after a 200 pt move to the upside.
OK say you got long the quarterly A up (our NLs confirmed around same time) where would you have placed your stop? My monthly Feb level was actually higher then my quarterly.